Re: [情報] Donaldson to blue jays

[Zamned (扎姆德)]

※ 引述《hunterqiji (hunter)》之銘言：
: http://tinyurl.com/pd2spfq
: The Blue Jays have struck a deal to acquire third baseman Josh Donaldson from the Athletics, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Infielder Brett Lawrie, righty Kendall Graveman, and shortstop Franklin Barreto are part of the package going back. Prospect Sean Nolin is also in the deal, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets.
: This deal’s franchise-changing implications are evident on its face. Donaldson, 28, and Lawrie, 24, have each been viewed as cornerstone third basemen for their respective clubs.
: MLB: Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
: Donaldson is, of course, the best piece moving in this swap and one of the more valuable commodities in all of baseball. A late bloomer, he had emerged as one of the game’s very best position players over the last two seasons. Collectively, he has slashed .277/.363/.477 with 53 home runs and 13 stolen bases over 1,262 plate appearances since the start of 2013. With stellar defense included, Donaldson has racked up 15.4 rWAR and 14.1 fWAR in that span.
: Projected by Matt Swartz/MLBTR to earn $4.5MM in his Super Two season of arbitration eligibility, Donaldson was just starting off on a track to become rather pricey. But he comes with four seasons of control, and will unquestionably be paid less than his anticipated worth on the diamond.
: Though significantly younger, Lawrie comes with one less year of control. He is, however, projected to take home just $1.8MM this season and will therefore also have a much lower starting point for his next two seasons of earnings.
: On the other hand, he has yet to match Donaldson’s output in spite of his own, oft-noted ability. Over his first three-plus seasons in the bigs, Lawrie owns a .265/.323/.426 slash (good for a 104 OPS+) and has generally drawn solid-to-outstanding reviews on his defensive work. Injuries have limited his time on the field over each of the last two seasons, but Lawrie has generally performed at a well-above-average clip when healthy.
: The other pieces involved are, of course, responsible for making up the gap in value between Donaldson and Lawrie. Barreto could be the hidden gem in the package, with Ben Badler of Baseball America noting on Twitter that the 18-year-old was the top July 2 prospect of two years prior and is probably at top-100 level player at this point.
: 豆爺送出Donaldson,拿到Lawrie+右投Graveman+SS Barreto+左投Nolin.
: Graveman名列BA 2014 all-star team.
: Barreto是2014季前藍鳥農場排名第5.
: Nolin是2014季前BA藍鳥農場排名第10.
: 不知道這個交易moneyball是如何考慮的呢?


我是這樣看的，如果Brett Lawrie健康，那這個交易的贏家就是豆爺。Josh

Donaldson是賣在最高點，將要29歲且越來越貴的的Donaldson換來24歲(明年

一月25歲)又能已相對便宜的代價使用好幾年的二壘手/三壘手Brett Lawrie，

而Brett Lawrie只要能保持健康他會是個很不錯的內野手。



剩下的配菜

Sean Nolin與Kendall Graveman：好一點的話會是中段輪值天份的先發投手。
                              重點還是明年開季應該能立即使用，這樣
                              水準的配菜可說是豪華了...


Franklin Barreto：多年期的IFA頂級新秀。身材有點太小支，但是他是有機會
                  留在游擊區，有好的速度而且天份也有打出來。能夠彌補
                  失去Addison Russell所產生的游擊空缺。



其實這個交易讓我想到當初Rich Harden的交易。交易的三年內大概整個大聯盟

都認為豆爺輸到脫褲子，直到這個交易的主角Josh Donaldson長出來。這次得到

曾經的頂級新秀，這個頂級新秀健康的話能在大聯盟貢獻給20發起跳的全壘打，

還有好的選球與不錯的二壘或是三壘防守功夫。我不認為拿到可能成為牛棚投手

的Aaron Sanchez或是未來的二、三號先發Daniel Norris的主菜包裹會是更好的

選擇。



嗯....聽說運動家還打算賣鯊魚換棒子........


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推 LV: 分析的讚 豆爺的確就是這樣打算 而且看起來Lawrie健康會很威
※ 編輯: Zamned (59.115.131.36), 11/29/2014 17:06:37
→ EEERRIICC: 我也期待勞瑞 他還年輕
※ 編輯: Zamned (59.115.131.36), 11/29/2014 17:15:12
推 GardenLost: 就拿現在換未來 藍鳥稍微被搶也是合理
※ 編輯: Zamned (59.115.131.36), 11/29/2014 17:23:01
→ searoar: exactly
→ searoar: 藍鳥也不算虧就是了 AA拼短線的樣子很明顯
推 JBLs: 仔細想當然不虧  就是對馬上動Donaldson很驚訝而已...
推 gundam00: 不過看蘿莉這幾年的傷痛 不樂觀他會健康整季...
推 whalespirit: 也對動到蘿莉有點意外，無論如何希望他健康！
→ condition0: 借轉~
※ condition0:轉錄至看板 Athletics                                 11/29 18:10
→ tyrone0923: 這個Trade最重要就在Lawrie健不健康
推 DINGYENCHIN: 其實就是各取所需，藍鳥拼短線，豆爺算盤打的精，愛
→ DINGYENCHIN: 死豆爺啦！！
推 soilstone: Donaldson 還可以比 Lowrie 多用一年，藍鳥沒送到頂級
→ soilstone: 的prospect，就換到一個可以更好、更健康、可以用更久
→ soilstone: 的三壘手了。
→ soilstone: 只看這筆交易，不懂為什麼綠帽為什麼一定較要今年做這
→ soilstone: 筆交易，覺得明年在換不見得會換到比較差的包裹，還是
→ soilstone: 之後會綠帽會把幾名投手交易掉，所以需要交易幾個即戰
→ soilstone: 力投手來補輪值? > <
推 pejahuang: 1.Addison Russell交易和Jed Lowrie的離開內野的洞
→ pejahuang: 2.AJ和Parker養傷回來前的SP吃局數人選
→ pejahuang: 只要Lawrie健康長出本來被期待的天花板穩賺不賠
推 pejahuang: AA明年算是期末考了，1993後唯一沒進季後的隊伍...
推 pejahuang: AA這次已經是他任內第4次大包裹換人交易1.Rasmus
→ pejahuang: 2.Happ 3.馬林魚清倉拍賣 前3次都不算成功
推 hunterqiji: You should count Dickey
推 krjr24: Donaldson今年是不是季末越打越差啊??
推 pusipusibaby: 4. Dickey才是最失敗的
推 coutji3184: Donaldson最後一個月都在帶小傷上陣
推 tsukasa107: 藍鳥想起飛 綠帽要農作物  希望是個雙贏
推 jsnc: 其實不太懂豆爺為什麼現在做這個交易
→ jsnc: 實際上nolin到頂只是個4,5號投手, 另外一隻頂多是中繼
→ jsnc: Barreto雖然是SS新秀可是在藍鳥農場是被預期以後打2B/CF的
很好理解不是嗎？維持現狀就沒有競爭力，既然如此，豆爺就勇敢的主動出擊。
這個交易很大部分意思是明年還是要組個有趣的陣容拼季後賽，
搭配賣鯊魚的傳聞，你會發現豆爺想要的可能是在大聯盟的球員....

Brett Lawrie是個不錯的主菜
前面我說過Brett Lawrie只要健康
打出接近Josh Donaldson成績並不是妄想(.260/.330/.470 25HR)
雖然他少用一年但是他也年輕很多、便宜不少
這樣的主菜很難去期待配菜會有超級高的價值
大部分是做些一方少賠多賺的平衡包裹
另外，我想這些配菜每個人的看法都不同
Franklin Barreto並不是沒有留在游擊的機會
Sean Nolin與Kendall Graveman
本來就不是球探愛的那型
但是球探報告是給過三號頂
而且運動家球場與防守應該能充分發揮他們的價值


嘛.......或許他們都牽涉到另一個交易...(如果我是球迷真的會瘋掉)
※ 編輯: Zamned (59.115.141.157), 12/01/2014 10:00:21
推 mess0706: 維持現狀就沒有競爭力？我怎麼覺得綠帽超有競爭力的耶..
→ mess0706: 只是一場定生死輸了 季賽還是打的不錯啊 雖然下半季的確
→ mess0706: 戰績有退步
推 acd51874: 美西還蠻可怕的  連太空人都在蛻變中
推 Lacus0827: 身為藍鳥迷 覺得真的有種被搶的感覺