作者logdog (風暴之軌跡)
看板TY_Research
標題[討論] EC有反應 96W TCFA
時間Wed Sep 17 07:51:55 2014
WTPN21 PGTW 162000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 137.0E TO 17.7N 131.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 136.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N
137.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN A
BROADER AREA OF TURNING. AN 161716Z AMSU-B AND A 161605Z GCOM IMAGE
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
AREA WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EVIDENT OVER THE LLCC FOR AN OVERALL
POSITIVE AFFECT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST, WITH GOOD DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172000Z.//
NNNN
http://ppt.cc/UdmD
EC系集預測轉向
前期副高西伸後遇到副高受槽打擊東退(?
轉向點有可能極為靠近台灣陸地
離散程度很大 變數很多
還要繼續追蹤下去
不過套個沒根據的經驗
多數侵台颱風 都是有變數很大開始的...
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推 ICEFTP : 目前看來很有瑞伯(Zeb)路線的fu 09/17 07:55
※ 編輯: logdog (123.192.225.38), 09/17/2014 07:56:30
推 ben108472 : 轉向點應該會偏東 近幾報有這樣調整 09/17 08:15
→ jayemshow : 還好是下個禮拜才要去花蓮，它應該是這個週末接近 ? 09/17 08:51
推 gamecheat : 悶了...這周未要去南部...從禮拜一就開始關注它... 09/17 09:43
→ gamecheat : 路徑預測從一開始的西進南海..到現在北轉可能侵台.. 09/17 09:44
推 astonic : 請問大大這個圖可以去哪個網站追蹤呢? 謝謝! 09/17 10:47
推 jayemshow : 這顆板上討論的程度好像沒有很熱絡 ? 09/17 11:17
推 ben108472 : 因為幾乎所有預報都是被勾走 09/17 12:27
推 vaughn : 希望它能貼近ㄧ點，讓西南尾灌ㄧ些水給南部水庫 09/17 13:21
推 usaul56 : 希望靠近點 不然明年春初的時候南部就沒水可用了 09/17 13:36
推 jasonccr : EC 00z 改的跟之前的CMC很像 09/17 14:28
推 jasonccr : 應該說ec和 cmc 很像 09/17 14:30
→ jasonccr : 掠過菲律賓後直角轉 09/17 14:31
推 aa1477888 : 不急不急～ 09/17 15:04
推 aa1477888 : 今年颱風季讓我學會什麼叫「冷感」 XD 09/17 15:06
推 seeback : 台灣開防護罩 09/17 15:11
推 typhoonnat : EC最新一報是走瑞伯路線的意思嘛XD 09/17 15:23
推 web2312 : JMA GW 09/17 15:33
推 aegis43210 : 這路線的熵應該尚未恢復，不看好他的強度 09/17 15:41
推 markshian : 秋颱透過槽前優異輻散爆發的例子不少呀 09/17 15:45
推 web2312 : EC 00Z 系集開始漸漸收束 09/17 16:32
→ web2312 : 系集平均預測該系統周日最接近台灣 09/17 16:33
推 keroromoa : 共伴效應颱風強度不是重點啊，雖然我覺得強度跟象神 09/17 16:47
→ keroromoa : 差不多，重點是對大台北來說，6類路徑的共伴降雨會 09/17 16:48
→ keroromoa : 比5類路徑影響大得多，類似的例子有象神跟海馬 09/17 16:49
推 keroromoa : NAV西調，數值只剩GFS支持125E以東轉向，另外會不會 09/17 17:16
→ keroromoa : 撞呂宋也會影響96W的強度，現在又加上96W西南方的渦 09/17 17:17
→ keroromoa : 度讓96W轉向的經緯度與卡鞍時間增加變數 09/17 17:18
→ keroromoa : HKO率先發出路徑圖，預計9/20以STS強度接近台灣 09/17 17:23
推 markshian : JTWC 升格16W 09/17 21:07