[揭弊] INSIDER – FAQ on Gordon Hayward

[always0410 (everything)]

http://ppt.cc/fvNm



INSIDER – FAQ on Gordon Hayward

by David Locke




According to Yahoo Sports and the Charlotte Observer, Gordon Hayward will
receive a max offer sheet from the Charlotte Hornets totally 63 million over
4 years.     Let me try to address a few questions on this issue.

根據雅虎新聞跟夏洛特觀察者(網站)的消息指出，黑娃"將會"接受來自紅色光頭的63m/4yr
的大約，讓我試著論述出這個議題的幾個問題



WHAT CAN THE JAZZ DO TO NOW THAT HAYWARD HAS AN OFFER SHEET?

爵士可以做些什麼呢


The Jazz have three choices.

爵士有三個選項

1) They can say no thank you this is too much money for Hayward and we are
going to pass.  This allows Hayward to leave and all the Jazz get is cap
space.

爵士可以說謝謝在連絡，我們這一趴給黃蜂做，黑娃的價錢時在太高了

這樣放黑娃離開，爵士得到的就是薪資空間


2) They can try to negotiate a sign and trade deal where the Jazz would
actually sign Hayward and then trade him to Charlotte for pieces the Hornets
give the Jazz. However, the Hornets have very little the Jazz would be
interested as their roster is currently constructed.


爵士可以先簽後換，把黑娃賣到夏洛特

但關鍵的問題在於，夏洛特應該沒有爵士想要的人

3) The Jazz can match the contract offer and assume the contract as their own.

不要多想，跟進黑娃合約就對了




WHEN DOES ALL THIS TAKE PLACE?

什麼時候發生?

The offer sheet while reported today can’t be official until July 10th.
Once the Jazz receives the offer they have 72 hours to match the deal.

這個報價到7/10方能正式化

爵士有三天的時間可以考慮是否跟進





WHAT WILL THE JAZZ DO?

爵士將會做些什麼?

The Jazz will match the contract and retain Hayward under this 4 year 63
million dollar contract.

爵士將會跟進合約






WHY WOULD THE JAZZ MATCH THIS CONTRACT WHEN IT OVERPAYS HAYWARD?

為什麼爵士明知報價過高還要跟進這份合約


First, the Jazz have drafted and developed Hayward.  He is there player and
the Jazz can ill afford to let him walk without receiving anything in
exchange.

首先，黑娃是爵士選進的，也是爵士養成的。爵士不能沒有回收任何東西就這樣白白放他
離開。

Hayward is really good.  We can debate if he is a “max” player but he is
really good.  He is likely to average around 16 pts, 5 rebs and 5 ast for the
rest of his career.  He is an elite passer for a wing.  He makes his
teammates better.

黑娃是個優秀的球員，我們甚至可以花個幾天來戰他是否為值得頂薪的大魚，儘管這麼說
，他還是一名優秀的球員。他生涯的平均有16分5籃板5助攻，他在側翼是個優異的傳球員
，他可以讓球隊變得更好。

Yes, the contract is paying Hayward more than he has achieved at this point
in his career, but that is the game of free agency and it only takes one team
to bust open the bank for a player so the Jazz must deal with those
consequences.

是的，這份合約超過黑娃目前的生涯成就。這不過就是自由球員市場競價後的結果，一支
球隊打開金庫報價，而爵士則必須面對這樣的結果。

Moreover, the Jazz are in a salary situation where they should still have
between 20 and 26 million dollars of cap space next year and another 10
million before the luxury tax.

而爵士目前的薪資空間還有20M-26M到達最低限，還有10M到達豪華稅門檻

If the Jazz let Hayward walk what else would they do with that money?  The
Jazz wouldn’t be able to get a comparable player in the marketplace.
 Signing a veteran on a re-building team in Salt Lake City is impossible and
trying to find another player of Hayward’s ability at 24 years old is nearly
impossible.


如果爵士就這樣讓黑娃走，那爵士(今年)也很難得到能跟黑娃(程度、身價)相提並論的球
員。在鹽湖城這個重建中的的球隊去簽一名沙場老將，原則上是很困難的，而去找另一名
球員，同樣24歲又具備黑娃的能力更是不可能。

The Jazz value Gordon Hayward as a player.  He is a special talent.  Not many
players in this league can average 15-6-6 like Hayward can and if you look at
almost all great teams have a playmaking wing.

爵士評估過黑娃，知道他有特殊的才能，聯盟中的球員要像黑娃一樣有平均15-6-6的表現
並不會太多

This is minor but the increases on the contract are only for 4.5% each season
and cap is expected to grow each year at higher than that rate so Hayward
will be less of the cap each season of the deal.

黑娃的合約每年成長約4.5%，而球隊新資上限的成長幅度則預期會高於黑娃的薪資

Let’s make sure we remember Hayward is our best player.  You can’t lose
your best player.

因此，我們認為黑娃事我們球隊的珍寶，而我們不能失去珍寶







BUT GORDON DIDN’T HAVE A GREAT YEAR LAST YEAR AND SHOT JUST 41% HOW CAN HE
GET A MAX CONTRACT?

但黑娃還沒打出偉大的球季，上個球季的命中率僅41%，憑什麼拿大約


The market was oversaturated with money and lacked talent.   When the market
opened I counted 24 slots of 12 million or more available for players and
only 12 players who were near worthy of a 12 million dollar contract.

It also tells you how the rest of the league views a player that can produce
the numbers I just mentioned.  The league lacks talented wing players so the
combination of playing a position that was in demand and a market that was
overloaded with money created the ideal situation for Gordon Hayward.

當聯盟具有天分的側翼球員需大於供時(有錢的財主太多，有天賦的球員太少)
那對黑娃就是一個理想的處境
(這兩段在談的就是自由市場的供需反向的競價原則)





HOW GOOD A PLAYER IS GORDON HAYWARD?

黑娃是一個多棒的球員

As I mentioned before, not a lot of players, average 16-5-5 in this league.
 Playmaking wings are really important and not a lot exist.

黑娃這種優秀的側翼球員並不常見

Hayward’s best talent is what he does for his teammates.

黑娃最優秀的點是他對隊友的正面能量

When Hayward was on the floor Favors shot 54% when Hayward was off the floor
Favors shot 46%.  The same goes for almost everyone on the Jazz last year.
 Trey Burke’s EFG% was 46.5%  with Hayward on and 39.8% with him off.  Same
applies to Jefferson 55.6/51, Alec  50.5/47 and Kanter 50.5/46.

黑娃場上-不動產命中率54%
黑娃下場-不動產只剩下46%

(我覺得這邊這樣衡量太偏頗啦，有沒有拉開區域，戰術是否主打不動產，或者主打黑娃不
動產補尾刀對不動產命中率都有影響...那TB反隊讓爵士掉出狀元排行榜不就超新星...)





DOES GORDON WANT TO PLAY IN UTAH?

黑娃想繼續待在猶他嗎

Absolutely.  Nothing that has taken place in this process means Gordon doesn’
t want to play in Utah.   Hayward’s agent and family have done exactly what
the process dictated them to do.  Last year, the Jazz and Hayward were in
negotiations and couldn’t come to an agreement.  One of the main reasons,
they couldn’t come to an agreement was Hayward’s agent understood what the
marketplace would be this off-season for Gordon.   Therefore, they went into
restricted free agency and got a max deal.   Now the Jazz are obligated to do
what they said they would do  the whole time, match the offer.  The Jazz have
been unbending  in their belief in Gordon as a player and how important he is
to the franchise.   When the Jazz match the contract they will show action
behind their words in this process.

Hayward took the risk of playing a year without a long term contract and it
paid off for him.  The Jazz knowing the market decided to make Hayward get
the offer and he was able to do that.   That is how the rules dictate the
game.  Both people played it and at the end they are still together on the
same team.

當然!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

去年沒辦法順利續約是經紀人了解這個球季黑娃的市場性。也因此，黑娃?成為RFA必且得
到了這張大約(報價)

爵士知道黑娃會是一名關鍵球員，也因此爵士必須要報價

黑娃冒了沒有長約的風險風險，打了一年球。爵士也知道市場將會決定黑娃能讓多少，這
就是市場法則。





CAN THE JAZZ STILL SIGN  ALEC BURKS AND ENES KANTER?

爵士可以留下小AB跟阿坎嗎

Nothing is as easy as a yes or no but basically yes.   Hayward’s first year
of his contract is for  14.75 million.   The Jazz will still have 26 million
in cap room and another 10 million or more until they hit the luxury tax so
they should be able to sign both Alec and Enes in the off-season if they
desire.


雖然這不是一個很簡單可以說出是或否的問題，但原則上是的。

第一年黑娃的合約是14.75M，爵士還有26M的薪資空間以及另外10M的豪華稅空間讓她們可
以留下小AB跟阿坎







WILL THIS CONTRACT EVER GET THE JAZZ IN MONEY PROBLEMS?

這筆合約會讓爵士營運上有財務問題嗎

The first time it could be an issue is when Trey Burke comes up for his
extension in the 2017-18 season.   A lot can take place between now and then,
so basically I would say no.

接下來面臨到這個問題可能會是2017-18球季，TB的續約

但原則上我會說"不會"

This is hard to project, but while Hayward is overpaid at 15 and 16 million a
year in the first two years of the deal by the time the new TV contract kicks
in his final two years may turn out to be the equivalent of 12 million dollar
deals.

但這很難去預測

首兩年的合約分別是15、16M

若把新的電視合約拉進他後兩年的合約做討論，相當於只剩12M的支出







DOESN’T SIGNING A PLAYER FOR MORE THAN HE IS WORTH HURT THE JAZZ?

不去找其他比黑娃更好的球員來簽是否值得呢?


Hard to say it is more than he is worth when the market dictates his worth.
 However,  I get the concept of the question.   In a lot of circumstances the
answer is yes.  However, in this case probably not.   The Jazz aren’t
expected to win a lot more games next year from what they did last year.
 The rebuild is still in its infancy stages and going to take some time
before the big steps are taken.  Therefore, over the next two years “
overpaying” Hayward while Exum, Kanter, Burke and the crew continue to
develop their games under Quin Snyder is unlikely to hurt the franchise.

很難直接的定論

對於這種問題我有一個概念，多數的情況下答案是肯定的(找更佳或便宜的替代品)

然而，依爵士目前的情況答案可能是否定的(肯定跟進黑娃)

因為按照不離不棄的去年成績，爵士並不期待今年表現能夠大躍進

重建需要時間跟耐心，因此超額支付的黑娃在這些菜鳥於Quin麾下繼續磨練、發展的情況
下，目前沒有會排擠他們開發潛能的跡象






DOES THIS IMPACT THE JAZZ ABILITY TO SIGN EXTENSIONS FOR ALEC BURKS AND ENES
KANTER?

這會影響到爵士未來續簽小AB跟阿坎嗎


This is where I think the impact will be felt.   If you were Alec Burks and
Enes Kanter and just saw Gordon Hayward get a max contract after his season
last year would you sign an extension or would you want to go to the open
market.   Both of these players are going to assume they will be met with the
same love as Gordon Hayward in the marketplace and this will make it very
difficult for the Jazz to be able to sign either of them to extensions this
off-season.

這就是我正在考慮的點

如果你是小AB跟阿坎你看到黑娃拿到這份大約，你會單純的忠誠續約還是會跳出市場測水
溫呢。

我腦補這兩位應該都會假設他們應該在市場都會得到跟黑娃一樣的愛，而這將會是爵士之
後的一個挑戰








WHEN WILL THE JAZZ MATCH THE CONTRACT?

爵士什麼時候應該跟進合約

The Jazz will wait the entire 72 hours before matching the contract for two
reasons.    First, the Jazz aren’t going to do the Hornets any favors by
releasing their obligation to this money by matching it early.   Secondly,
the Jazz will have an extra 6 million dollars they can spend in those 72
hours.  Gordon Hayward’s current cap hold is about 8 million dollars.  Once
the Jazz match he will take up 14.7 million of the cap.  Therefore, for the 72
hours that the Jazz waits they could sign a player with that 6 million.
 After signing, Hayward the Jazz will still have about  8 million and as much
as 11 million of cap space.

爵士應該會在7/10後的，黃蜂正式報價近滿72hr後宣布跟進合約，原因有2

1.爵士太早跟進會爽到黃蜂

2.在爵士在這72小時將會有額外的6M空間可以花費

(這兩段原理可能要再請比較懂規則的人解釋一下)






HAS CHARLOTTE DONE ANYTHING TO MAKE THE CONTRACT UNAPPEALING TO THE JAZZ?

黃蜂是否在這張合約加了什麼料


It sounds, though not confirmed, that the Hornets have placed a trade kicker
and a player option in the deal.  The player option would be for the last
year and that is the first time the Jazz will have some financial issues with
Trey also due for his extension.  The trade kicker is complicated, but the
easiest way to think of it is that it will make it harder for the Jazz to
trade Hayward in the 4th year of his contract.  A  year he may be able to opt
out of anyway.

If Hayward is worth more than the 16.7 on his final year and wants to opt out
of his contract the Jazz should be pleased he has improved that much as a
player.


有黃蜂把交易補貼及球員選項放入合約的傳聞，但一切都還是乳摸

若黑娃屆時(4yr)覺得自己值得超過16.7M，想跳出合約，他應該要進步到那個程度在說







WILL GORDON HAYWARD BECOME A BETTER PLAYER NOW THAT HE HAS A MAX CONTRACT?

黑娃有了這張大約後，還會進化嗎

This is going to be the hardest part of this situation.  Gordon is not going
to change as a player.  He may have more success in Quin Snyder’s open
floor,  pick and roll heavy,  spread offense than in the post centric offense
of Sloan and Corbin.  Gordon is an elite open floor player.  If the Jazz can
get him more opportunities in the  open than he will look better.  However,
he is not going to change as a player and he is probably not going to be what
you perceive a max player to be.


就目前來說，這是個很難預測的狀況。黑娃依舊是黑娃，但是他在Quin系統下可以取得更
多的成功(相較教皇、烤餅重禁區，Quin是更分散、空間更大的的進攻系統)。

黑娃很適合這種體系，如果在這個體系中，讓黑娃有更多的機會去表現，他會看起來更棒

不過，他可能還是不會是人們所認知的頂薪球員...





WHY DIDN’T JAZZ GET A DEAL DONE BEFORE THIS OFFER SHEET?

為什麼爵士不在這個報價前完成簽約呢


A little bit because the Hayward camp wanted to get a max offer and that was
their goal.  It was important for them that Hayward was regarded as a max
player.   The Jazz opened up this portion of the negotiations with an effort
to get a deal done, but the Hayward camp wanted to see what the market would
deliver.  Good on them.  In the first portion of the negotiation prior to the
start of last season the Jazz may look back and wish they had offered more
and given more to get a deal done rather than paying the max contract now.


因為黑娃陣營想拼大約，想跳到市場測水溫
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 118.232.238.52
※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/UTAH-JAZZ/M.1404915587.A.988.html

推 MOTONARI:雖然只翻到一半 不過我覺得說得很好
推 aodn:這篇比較中肯,不用像樓上那篇如此悲觀,也不用跟AK當年的大長
→ always0410:愛狗大，這篇太多了啦
→ aodn:約比,教練換了,至少就可以期待今年的兩位新人,接下來幾年應該
推 monmo:這篇沒有愛狗大啦XDD 這篇把我的想法說了個八成 不滿意但
→ monmo:可以接受 尤其如果能簽4年的話就還好 而且真的跟AK狀態
→ aodn:就是從黑娃,TB跟EXUM三者間找出真老大了,個人最看好Exum
→ monmo:是截然不同的 AK甚至比黑娃適合當老大 他問題是當老三~老四
→ monmo:就欠缺一些能力 黑娃我早前說過 他是相當好的百搭老二/三
推 stevenlovego:因為這一篇是我丟給a大的~XDDDDDDDDDD
sorry太多惹我沒翻的很好，後面都亂翻了明天我在檢查修一下

→ monmo:不然我們可以問問他哪個不會? 至少都在一般水平之上
→ monmo:切傳投三脅都有 具備單防補防能力 可以無球可以控球
→ monmo:愛狗你這賤貨XDDDD(馬上準備寄信給歐維式)
推 aodn:其實接下來三年,西區列強明顯準備要洗牌了,如果我們策略操作
→ monmo:說真的啦 簽了這個只是定下很好的老二老三 黑娃打的如何其實
→ aodn:得當,至少有機會打出像小胖那幾年在的戰績
→ monmo:也不是爵士根本性的問題 Favors能否好好用/Exum的養成才是
→ monmo:重點 因為他們兩個更是有真核心的可能
→ aodn:推,如果有CP3那樣的PG在,Fav早養成加強版的拳王了
推 stevenlovego:always你不用刪文啦~摸摸是我學長~OK的
推 kaikai1112:安心(亞)看球吧......我們現在就只缺一個正牌先發 C
推 monmo:有一處可以稍微潤改 供過於需容易被誤會
→ monmo:意思比較接近"市場有錢的人太多 有天賦的稀少"
→ kaikai1112:快點把偷米客找來ㄚㄚㄚ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
→ kaikai1112:今年是巨頭年 也是不利因素 大家把薪資空間預留下來了
→ kaikai1112:只不過 這麼快就被小蜜蜂錶 有點給他意外
推 stevenlovego:所以基本上KANTER和BURKS..我會選小AB
→ stevenlovego:KANTER成RFA....然後市場開價...超過10M就不會跟
→ stevenlovego:但問題是....怎麼可能會白白讓KANTER走?
→ stevenlovego:所以我會傾向季中交易....也不意外會有和溜馬交易的
→ stevenlovego:乳摸
噓 JerrySloan:黃蜂怎麼會沒有我們要的人  不就big Al
※ 編輯: always0410 (118.232.238.52), 07/09/2014 23:11:24
噓 JerrySloan:放大爵  先簽後換林加高富珍  替補陣容穩了
噓 JerrySloan:16-5-5好像很強  0.41-0.30-0.81的三圍怎麼樣?
→ JerrySloan:歷史上有沒有出過一個四成命中率還可以簽頂薪的人
推 semicoma:這篇基本上把我的整個思考的方式講完了 主要是下一輪續約
→ semicoma:的難度以及黑娃在這體系的重要性 除非Quin要把整個系統砍
→ lowatre:@JerrySloan請參考Paul George
推 stevenlovego:我有時候真的不知道老番顛是真的在諷刺還是在幹譙
→ semicoma:掉重練 不然爵士不太可能放掉黑娃 而且說實在我原本預期
→ semicoma:最高15M(但希望13-14M能搞定)只差每年0.75M 這真的是小錢
噓 JerrySloan:我查了  險勝黑娃  笑死我了  但是他三分有36%
→ semicoma:了 很可惜之前談延長合約時沒用50M/4y談下來
推 Batztop:之前延長時板上也覺得貴 XD 此一時彼一時啊
→ JerrySloan:頗喬志他是因為溜馬打到東區冠軍佔便宜簽大約
→ lowatre:Quin現在正在幹這樣的事...他把set offense大幅縮減 取而
→ JerrySloan:墊底球隊的一哥     基本上還是一哥就對了是不是
→ lowatre:代之的是更多flow offense 今天TB有提到這樣的感覺
→ Batztop:夏季聯盟不知道有沒有 NBA TV 以外的轉播
→ semicoma:PG換約前的東冠之旅打得很好 對談頂約太有幫助了
→ Batztop:不然是個觀察一二年級生的好機會
→ lowatre:要說系統的話應該算是全拆了 防守的壞習慣也順便
→ JerrySloan:你們覺得黑娃這幾年是進步還是退步
推 monmo:當時是52M/4Y了
→ JerrySloan:我只看出球權越來越多
→ lowatre:我會說他球季中一直有在進步 但通常進步幅度最大的都是
推 semicoma:不過PG/Hayward/Turner都遇到一種情況 就是什麼事都要包
→ lowatre:被賦予球權那一年(練兵年)的下一年 所以現在定論不容易
→ semicoma:所以命中率會因此受影響 不受影響的這類球員如LBJ正是頂
→ semicoma:級和高級的差別
推 Batztop:拿去年的黑娃和今年的比有點不準確，扮演的角色差太多了
推 aodn:記得黑娃去年是不想簽吧~嫌約太小,然後爵士隊方也想觀察他當
→ Batztop:和半顆馬大的意見一樣，去年和今年的季中他是有在進步
→ always0410:根據我的實證研究 簽完大約容易受傷 擺爛
→ aodn:老大的情況,並不太積極,結果今年這種數據竟然沒把它隊嚇跑,不
推 JerrySloan:我覺得開個7-8M試探tuner 他願意來就別跟惹
→ aodn:是他還有潛力,就是烤餅真的太爛了,所以數據雖差,但還是有進步
推 monmo:其實他在烤餅手下是有進步的呀 烤餅養人是不錯的 但體系不好
→ monmo:而且陣容一直變...看看盧三小打了多久PG就知道 他得控又得
推 nuturewind:烤餅如果不是接總教練..我會覺得他是很稱職的制服組~
→ aodn:個人也是覺得季中後段整隊都打得意興闌跚,就是等著放暑假,等
推 semicoma:基本上這種要全包的打法都需要適應啦 LBJ第一年命中率好
→ semicoma:像也才41%的樣子 黑娃16M基本上就是賭過去兩季的養成能在
→ semicoma:接下來4年收割 而不是給別隊收割過去
→ lowatre:Corbin養人方面會比較注重細節掌握 所以很難打出好成績
→ aodn:著烤餅走的感覺,場上都是感覺打卡等下班
→ always0410:我現在最怕還不是黑娃的約 是Favors繼續扛中鋒
→ always0410:然後阿坎賣不掉 全隊繼續打歡樂籃球
→ lowatre:肯定的 現在找中鋒都很麻煩了還在搞他的約...
→ always0410:目前看起來可能是這樣，明DF就有成為西區前三F潛力
→ always0410:黑娃要S&T還留著我真的都覺得還其次 今年該練DF了吧
推 Batztop:比較好奇，如果讓狗博上來多打點 C 呢
→ always0410:目前quin的體系看起來是不會這樣幹的 除非狗博是okur
→ monmo:也不一定啦 Fav的問題跟核心問題 我是樂觀看待球權回PG身上
推 semicoma:我們沒個能傳球的Ｃ或ＰＦ站中的話成效也不高吧@@
→ monmo:身上後 就可以迎刃而解 給Fav一個主配PG 他數據會增加很多
推 tanner51:SORRY~總板回過，我認為黑娃是有他的身價，但卻不是我們
→ tanner51:隊形需要的球員。
→ tanner51:如未來重點在TB,DE還有DF上 ，那麼SF在今年的市場絕對找
→ tanner51:得到更划算的人選 ，簽了錢真的白花 ，加強深板凳深度，
→ tanner51:別再簽盧小小等級球員~史龍說得好TUNER也是可以考慮，加
→ tanner51:上NOVAK來這可以拉開攻擊範圍，那麼黑娃的重要杏就一直
→ tanner51:降低了~~好處是我的黑娃衣可以續穿@@
→ always0410:我目前感覺是會有很大機率一大DF配四小
→ monmo:之前quin是有過Fav是中鋒 以及Fav/阿坎重疊的說法
→ monmo:但他也說過 他會嘗試讓Fav/阿坎並存
→ monmo:試試看...另外黑娃的另一功能 很少人提及 留他才不會再
→ monmo:重蹈黑娃去年沒學長靠自己當老大的養成問題
推 semicoma:這幾年Pop真的啟示了不少人啊XD
→ monmo:就算會成真王牌 Exum也是需要養的 責任誰來扛?
→ always0410:真希望今年偷米能來，我很納悶怎麼會錯過Hawes
→ always0410:很適合QUIN體系又可以解放FAVORS
→ lowatre:唯一的可能就是球團對拿下Tomic並給予他重要角色的事已經
→ lowatre:準備好了 不然連風聲都沒有是非常奇怪的事
推 monmo:甚至連中鋒都沒在找呀 禁區也只有傳過Booker
推 semicoma:也要看Hawes想不想來啊 鹽湖城耶XD
→ semicoma:Tomic適合打flow嗎?
推 Batztop:結果下季阿坎 for three
→ monmo:他會傳球應該是更好人選的主因
推 stevenlovego:如果TOMIC來....和FAVORS搭...阿坎和GOBERT搭
推 monmo:另外很多人也忘了 黑娃還有門面加給 商品好賣呀!
→ monmo:會不會到時候Wiggins被交易去灰狼 我們跟灰狼重啟交易XD
推 MOTONARI:我們沒有灰狼要的菜吧
推 semicoma:我只怕萬一不小心奪冠 之後要談薪水就不容易惹
推 MOTONARI:冠軍賽如果遇到騎士或溜馬會很辛苦吧(想太多
→ always0410:如果是wiggins，那黑娃的約就合理了
推 semicoma:Lindsey:"戰績太好 好困擾"
推 CW4:2) 聽說夏洛特完全沒有談過S&T
→ lowatre:關於這件事是聽說著眼點在於它們想保留所有talent
→ lowatre:不只是跟爵士 其他球隊一概沒有討論過 甚至是交易
推 CW4:重點是他們薪資空間夠啊 XD
→ CW4:其他隊有跟爵士談過S&T
→ CW4:http://ppt.cc/vzIH
→ lowatre:喔我是說山貓啦 XD 他們今年的動作算很有guts了
→ lowatre:    "黃蜂"
→ CW4:這次就完全被突襲 對方開出它能開的max deal了
推 JoshSmith:Kanter還有市場,沒有隊伍會對 A.Burks有興趣的
→ lowatre:? 我們是看同一隻爵士嗎 @_@
→ lowatre:多少是有被突襲到 不過也不能說太意外 如果Charlotte不做
→ lowatre:S&T的話我們跟完全就是不得不為 (考量到FA SF的入手難度)
→ lowatre:我也有在想除了match以外的做法 不過看來都不是太好的選擇
→ lowatre:真的別小看AB 他的定位是爵士目前算很清楚的了
→ PatlaborGao:就怕明年同樣的文章再發一次,只是人名改成Kanter
推 CW4:Kanter要是不肯提前續約 接下來又有人要拚合約年了
→ kaikai1112:騎士要拿威機去換家樂福了...有機會拿 黑娃 三方嗎????
推 kaikai1112:有需要的話.....還可以加碼窮鬼板加樂福---阿坎呦
推 kaikai1112:CP25 46M/3yr 這樣來看 黑娃的約還好嘛 (還是肥滋滋)
→ always0410:小AB可是猶他杜溫偉呢
推 GordnHayward:哈  現在看CP25的合約  真的覺得黑蛙的還好嘛~
推 stevenlovego:所以都會被喊到1500以上了
推 theparanoid:黑娃1600跟CP比，CP值超高
推 SpencerHawes:黑娃有比CP25好很多??
→ semicoma:CP25臉值10M 黑娃臉才值6M
推 canonring151:跟CP25比 黑娃CP直高多了
→ CW4:並沒有吧 兩個PER只差0.3 CP生涯還沒出現撞牆期
→ CW4:砸錢搶這種RFA 出現過一季停滯的還多開一年約 絕對是比較不值
推 monmo:這樣分析是大有問題的
推 Newstart:這篇分析的不錯
推 CW4:反正過幾季就知道了 先說我不是不喜歡Hayward 也不是覺得這是
→ CW4:最離譜的約 但是被這樣把價格抬起來沒什麼好高興的
推 stocktonty:被蓄意抬價這種事在鹽湖城只會一再發生 沒辦法
→ lowatre:沒有人說被抬價是好事 但單從PER值分析本身就是會有問題了
推 JeremyEvans:底牌都還不明 只因為籌碼多就跟了 現在是給我這種感覺
→ JeremyEvans:黑娃不是一哥 爵士打的也是團隊社會主義籃球而不是
→ JeremyEvans:資本主義階級籃球 爵士還有很多洞要補 一個overpaid
→ JeremyEvans:很容易在後面造成排擠效應 使得有限的薪資空間效益不
推 JeremyEvans:能最大化 試想如果AK和小酒的薪資 換成兩個千萬級的
→ JeremyEvans:側翼  是不是結果很會不一樣 (雖然問題不能這麼簡化
→ JeremyEvans:但是保持空間的彈性 將每一塊錢效益最大化 才是爵士
→ JeremyEvans:將來要走的路線吧
→ JeremyEvans:當然如果Exum打出來 可以跟黑娃的overpaid扯平是最好
推 MOTONARI:從AK到現在 爵士簽不到任何一個千萬級的側翼 一個都沒有
→ MOTONARI:唯一能做的就是靠自己養
推 JeremyEvans:樓上說的現象正是無奈之處  當時爵士還有很多洞
→ JeremyEvans:結果我們優先補了禁區 等到側翼要補 彈性就有限了
→ JeremyEvans: 是差點簽到Corey Maggette.......
推 stevenlovego:我不覺得先補禁區是錯的...如果FAVORS到今年是RFA
→ stevenlovego:我們今年會被迫跟更誇張的約......
→ stevenlovego:本來去年是想把DF和黑娃一起搞定...
→ stevenlovego:但只搞定FAVORS...現在市場就是會把價開給類似的SF
推 JeremyEvans:我的意思不是補禁區是錯的 而是有太多洞要補
→ stevenlovego:如果我們先讓黑娃簽約....今年的FAVORS會是BOSH價
→ always0410:其實真的要考慮時間點 球隊的運作不是只以贏球為考量
→ always0410:贏球只是說服球迷進場看表演的理由
→ always0410:他們真正在乎的是球隊財務結構跟市值的變化
→ always0410:白白放走黑蛙=資產，新資帽跟市值絕對受影響
→ always0410:新資帽影響未來幾年的上限(營運)，市值則為財務
→ stevenlovego:是的..我同意always的看法..已經付過一次奢侈稅了
→ stevenlovego:這種小市場球隊不可能再來第2次
→ always0410:而且別說今年，有哪一年我們真的這種薪水可以端給大物
→ always0410:而大物也願意來
→ stevenlovego:因此我會把薪資圖看成是球團本身也希望開4年約
→ stevenlovego:而不是黑娃=最高薪..他也知道他最高薪
→ always0410:在回到時間點，這個時間如果是放掉黑蛙去簽像ARIZA
→ stevenlovego:所以就必須打的更像第1人
→ always0410:滷蛋或什麼的，爵士的薪資結構絕對不是靜態不動
→ always0410:光上限就會受到影響，所以這篇也有說到，爵士得滿72hr
→ always0410:跟進
→ always0410:這些都是因為林賽在找尋最好的解決方法
→ always0410:一方面要布局未來 一方面要解決限有問題
→ always0410:而且跟了黑娃，還有ST的選項，琳賽的功課絕對比我們足
→ always0410:資訊也絕對比我們多，請務必要對琳賽有信心
→ always0410:對了，我好希望能盤來ET打QUIN的戰術，應該會很猛
※ 編輯: always0410 (118.232.238.52), 07/10/2014 23:12:55
→ lowatre:我也是覺得該相信Lindsey 不過近年選秀讓我很質疑他的計畫
→ lowatre:我現在還是懷著一絲希望是他們有找到match以外的可能性啦
→ lowatre:不是說match不好 而是尋找比match更好的做法
→ lowatre:其實從傳出Hayward想跟黃蜂簽的消息後 我有點懷疑是不是他
→ lowatre:對打哪個位置和球團運作有甚麼意見 是不是因為他們是更好
→ lowatre:的防守隊伍/去那裏打SG更合他的意/或者是他更想打inside-
→ lowatre:out...這些指標是不是有在指出他對目前爵士的意見
→ lowatre:BTW ET來打motion offense沒有外線會很難打耶...
噓 lowatre:話說現在NBA大家打的還是資本主義籃球無誤 除了馬刺能用教
→ lowatre:練魅力供著三大神主牌之外每個球員都是對球隊獅子大開口
→ lowatre:很少有球隊(即便是小市場)能精算到沒有任何一筆overpaid啦
噓 DK47:或者很單純就是人家端了這肥約 而我們一開始不願給
→ lowatre:因為騎士當初也開過這種約 而現在又還沒去PHX面談 怎麼會
→ lowatre:這麼快才剛見面就答應...這點是我比較懷疑的地方
噓 DK47:不是說騎士根本沒開嗎
→ lowatre:應該是這樣 我現在只記得騎士和Hayward談的很淺 XD
噓 JeremyEvans:其實我覺得拓拓很接近 也是跟我們一樣自己養出兩隻
→ JeremyEvans:只是這兩隻看起來效益比我們的好...拓拓現在也只差
→ JeremyEvans:第六七人或是禁區  不過Batum當時沒怎麼抬價 不知道
→ JeremyEvans:是不是用了當年的暗黑兵法......
噓 lowatre:當初Batum的11M/yr好像是馬刺開的 就現在來看會有點貴了
→ lowatre:但也是因為雙核心來了之後壓縮到 其實是蠻符合的價錢
→ lowatre:LMA好像要的是明年再簽新的Max Contract 現在來說他們確實
→ lowatre:是沒有overpaid啦 不過他們替補也是夠爛了...
→ lowatre:話說馬嫂現在有算overpaid嗎 XD 當初沒跟不知道是對是錯
→ always0410:其實我比較傾向S&T，然後把evan turner盤來
→ CW4:去年提前續約就沒事了 然後不要老是拿我用什麼數據有問題又不
→ CW4:真的討論數據 我通常都只是丟出最快的東西 沒有把它當唯一的證
→ CW4:據或是鐵律 CP的表現實際上就沒有比Hayward差到哪 你說Hayward
→ CW4:的模板best case高也好 問題是這也不是只有你覺得 沒打出來就
→ CW4:是沒打出來 摸摸良心黃蜂開max deal 爵士又跟 兩隊是不是在賭
→ CW4:博好嗎 明明頭兩季我對Hayward也都是好評啊
→ CW4:去年50M/4y沒續 就是希望今年被提的offer sheet不要太高啦 然
噓 MOTONARI:好不容易養了幾年才打點名堂就交易出去還換不到一哥貨色
→ MOTONARI:根本就是資敵 其他人過來會想留嗎 每年養新人就只是農場
→ CW4:後期待落空這樣 就簡單一句會怕那就提前搞定就對了 之前想省小
→ CW4:錢才遇到這個狀況 接著Kanter要是不願意提前續 會有更多比留不
→ CW4:下他麻煩的事 我認為Hayward沒有貴很多 Kanter應該也留的下 但
→ CW4:是管理好一支球隊不是只要把rosters排出來就好了
→ CW4:還有真的不要太小看CP 他打出那個數據的USG% 只用了19.3 Hayw-
→ CW4:ard這季使用進攻權的效率是很有問題的 也反應在戰績上
推 CW4:#1IPM7FG5 這系列討論串討論過的東西 大家可以看看再想想 是不
推 semicoma:只好學小說<基地>一樣用宗教在各地扎根 等他們將來長大
→ semicoma:科研重鎮鹽湖城也開發出微型核裝置 年輕球員就只會想來
→ semicoma:鹽湖城打球了
→ CW4:是有些人可能出於挺球隊的感情因素 產生前後標準不一致 我講的
推 semicoma:Hayward-Hornets的風聲搞不好就只是經紀人在搞鬼而已
→ CW4:很委婉 因為這實際上是球迷難免的表現 我有時候也會這樣
→ semicoma:然後這些握有內線消息的人士再透露點風聲施點小惠給特定
→ semicoma:記者來放風聲影響球團決策 就像<紙牌屋>裡面副總統放消息
→ semicoma:給菜鳥記者那樣
推 semicoma:我是覺得不要把焦點只放在overpay 而是overpay多少 這樣
→ semicoma:比較能討論下去 比方我前面提過 可能球團覺得overpay 2M
→ semicoma:還能接受就會硬著頭皮跟 主要是黑娃在其他年也不是10-12M
→ semicoma:就能穩穩搞定的
→ semicoma:然後我覺得球團要思考怎麼跟經紀人體系對抗 談判的邏輯如
→ semicoma:果被抓到了 以後要留自家養出的大物(有這種東西嗎?)或是
→ semicoma:不被胡亂抬價留人 就不是一件容易的事了
推 kirilenko47:老是講天賦潛力新秀不如打出來的實際...我真的很想
推 kirilenko47:知道有哪些球員是被養了5.6年後忽然開竅打出來，黑娃
→ kirilenko47:這約簽下去，明年如果可以扛到20/5/5倒是可以接受，
→ kirilenko47:在爵士這樣的小市場裡簽到這樣的約幾乎斷定他得當老大
推 robler:不管怎麼說 爵士終於有了聯盟前十名的前鋒了 至少在薪資上
噓 ammon:老了就是這樣