[情報] Hollinger's NBA 選秀大哉問 拓會動#3嗎?

[foolishbi (blackink)]

前言:跳著翻譯跟拓荒者有關的段落，其他內容簡易翻

來源: The Athletic, Josh Hollinger
網址: https://reurl.cc/qk92vq (需付費)


Hollinger’s NBA Draft Combine rumblings: What will Hornets do at No. 2? Will
Blazers trade No. 3?

火靈哥NBA選秀綜合雜談：黃蜂#2會怎麼選? 拓荒者#3是否會交易呢?

CHICAGO — We have one month until the draft, everyone is here for an event
geared to prepare for the draft … and nobody is talking about the draft.

離今年選秀日還有一個月，大家都為了選秀焦頭爛額，但...沒人會把策略直接聊出來

Now that Victor Wembanyama’s fate has been determined, the eyes of execs,
staffers and coaches here for the NBA Draft Combine are already
fast-forwarding to a long, interesting offseason.

斑馬的命運已經確定前往馬刺，各球團高層教練組已經把心力放在漫長有趣的休賽季

Among the hot topics:
稍微提一下幾個熱門話題

Five — count ’em, five — coach openings, and desirable ones at that:
Milwaukee, Phoenix and Philadelphia all offer the prospect of immediate
contention; Toronto has money and isn’t tanking; and, um, Detroit. The
Pistons might have been able to fish in the elite Nick Nurse/Monty
Williams/Mike Budenholzer waters if they won the Wembanyama lottery; landing
fifth likely puts them in first-time coach territory. Will the other plum
jobs be musical chairs among those three names?

現在有「五個」教練空缺，公鹿/太陽/76人/暴龍/活塞，如果活塞抽到斑馬，就可以
悠閒的Nick Nurse/Monty Williams/Mike Budenholzer裡面慢慢挑了，可惜沒如果

Whether the Clippers’ Tyronn Lue will extend that list of coach openings to
six or come to terms on a rich extension with LA. Lue only has one guaranteed
year left on his deal but has most of the leverage here, as he is quite
popular in rival front offices. The smart money seems to be on him staying.

快艇盧總會不會加上述名單，變成第六名教練空缺呢?

Washington’s slow-motion GM search, with news leaking so slowly that even
the term “leak” implies far too much velocity; this is, at best, an “ooze.
” Will the Wizards have a GM by the draft? By free agency? By November?

巫師總管還是空的，不知道哪時才會找到人選

The Ja Morant situation and how that might impact what other decisions the
Grizzlies make. If the league suspends him, what justification will it use,
and how long will he be sidelined? If it’s a big chunk of the season, how
does that impact the Grizzlies’ other offseason decisions?

Ja Morant二次玩槍事件會怎麼影響灰熊的操作呢?
聯盟這次禁賽又會用什麼理由呢? 禁多長時間?

And, not least of all, the potential for a wild offseason of wheeling and
dealing after so many teams pushed their chips in only to fall miles short of
expectations in 2022-23. This comes just as the league’s free spenders are
greeted with a new CBA that includes fairly draconian penalties for
profligacy.

狂野的休賽季準備開始了，今年太多球隊投入非常多資產卻沒有打出預期的成果。
同時新CBA開跑，準備懲罰超大團。

Relative to the draft, that last bullet point is perhaps the most relevant.
Several disappointed lottery teams are now in position to potentially trade
their pick, but a vexing question remains: Trade it for what? Which teams are
looking to throttle down and convert a star-caliber veteran into a draft
pick? Even teams that might get hammered by the new luxury-tax rules, such as
the Clippers and Warriors, don’t seem to be of a mind to just start shedding
talent.

最后一則選秀話題：多支樂透順位的球隊非常有可能交易他們的選秀籤，但耐人尋味的
問題隨之而來，你能交易到什麼資產？哪些球團準備賣球星拆了？準備被新CBA搞的快艇
跟勇士隊，目前似乎也不打算拆隊。

One can argue there are teams that should be doing this, mind you, but sorry:
There does not appear to be any willpower for this type of step back in
places like, say, Chicago or Portland or Washington. Zach LaVine, Damian
Lillard and Bradley Beal aren’t walking through that door. Toronto seems
like the only team that might — might — entertain dealing elite wings for
draft capital. As we’ll see in a minute, this state of affairs puts one
lottery team in particular in a quandary.

或許公牛、拓荒者和巫師都應該這麼做。LaVine, Lillard, Beal都沒打進季後賽。
暴龍則很可能是唯一一支球隊，能提供出優質側翼交換選秀資產。


Actual NBA Draft, and trade, talk
接下來談談選秀概況跟交易可能性

Speaking of which: Before we stick our heads too far into July, however, let’
s shift gears back to June 22. We can speculate all we want about various
maybes in free agency and trades, but I guarantee you there will be a draft
on June 22 and that 58 players will be selected. Since the draft happens
before free agency, some of the plentiful thorny issues waiting on draft
night could have considerable domino effects on other teams’ summers.

Only one thing is in no doubt at all: The Spurs are taking Wembanyama with
the top pick. You can go ahead and tell the engraver to get started on that
one.

馬刺不需要多談，選斑馬就對了

How the Spurs won the NBA Lottery: Inside the room where San Antonio's
fortunes changed

After that, things quickly get interesting. Among the scuttlebutt this week:
除了斑馬，後面的順位就開始有趣囉，這週的幾個乳摸分享

‧ The draft starts with Charlotte and the second pick, where the Hornets are
likely choosing between point guard Scoot Henderson of G League Ignite and
small forward Brandon Miller of Alabama. While Henderson is in my judgment
the superior talent, playing him and LaMelo Ball in the same backcourt could
give the Hornets pause. Charlotte isn’t tipping its hand, nor should it; a
trade down to No. 3 is another possibility, but only sellable if the team at
No. 3 isn’t sure which player the Hornets want.

黃蜂 #2也不確定選Scoot Henderson 還是 Brandon Miller，都有可能，
甚至可以向下交易給 #3的那支球隊，讓別人先選擇

‧ Note that I said “the team at No. 3” because of widespread speculation
the Trail Blazers, who currently own the pick, will seek to trade out of the
third position rather than select another young player. With Portland in “
win it for Dame” mode and the Blazers desperate for playable wings (even
presuming they re-sign Jerami Grant), speculation is already widespread that
a package of the third pick and Anfernee Simons might be used to snag an
elite small forward.

注意我用的措辭「#3 那支球隊」，因為#3的持有球隊拓荒者，正在尋求可以符合小李
時間線的側翼球員，同時也會簽下Grant，眾所周知，拓荒者最可能提供的包裹就是
Anfernee Simons + #3 換 菁英等級小前鋒


‧ My favorite fake trade, however, kills two birds with one stone by
resolving the Magic’s backcourt issue. Orlando holds pick Nos. 6 and 11 and
would likely be tempted to trade up and take Henderson if the Hornets select
Miller at No. 2. Could some combination of the sixth and 11th picks and
another asset allow the Magic to move up to No. 3?
火靈哥最喜歡的交易乳摸，拓荒者 #3 <> 魔術#6 + #11 + 其他資產。
但前提是黃蜂先選了Brandon Miller，魔術才能選Scoot Henderson來解決後場問題

The other half of this trade is that it would allow the Blazers to hedge
their bets by splitting their lottery pick in two. Imagine, for instance, a
scenario where the Blazers do this trade with Orlando, then deal the sixth
pick for immediate wing help but hang on to No. 11 and use it on Duke big man
Dereck Lively II. Of course, this still requires such a player to actually be
available, and parlaying the sixth pick into that player in particular could
prove problematic given that Houston and Detroit may want to do the same
thing at No. 4 and No. 5.

拓荒者可以用#6 選一位側翼球員，#11選 Dereck Lively II這樣的護框大個子
但有相對應的風險，火箭#4、活塞#5非常有可能把拓荒者想選的側翼球員挑走

‧ Complicating the logic for Portland at No. 3 is that Houston at No. 4 is
likely pursuing the same alternative. In fact, the Rockets are arguably even
more in “win-now” mode than the Blazers, despite a young roster coming off
a 22-win season. This is because the Rockets owe a top-four protected
first-round pick to the Thunder as a result of the Chris Paul–Russell
Westbrook trade and thus have little incentive to take their lumps for
another season: It’s time to win. (Houston also owes a top-four protected
first from this deal in 2026, as well as a top-20 protected pick swap in
2025. Yikes.)

情況其實非常複雜，因為火箭#4 也想跟拓荒者做相同的事情，尋求Win-Now模式，
火箭首輪籤在雷霆手上，沒得好坦

The fourth pick (not to mention their other pick at No. 20) is unlikely to
advance that objective on a roster that already has seven first-round picks
still on their rookie contracts, plus a 23-year-old Kevin Porter Jr. and a
22-year-old Kenyon Martin Jr. It would seem there isn’t room on the roster
to add two more young players if the Rockets are serious about taking a step
forward. Houston’s dreams of repatriating James Harden are well-chronicled,
and the Rockets will want the rest of their $60 million in cap room and room
exception to sign some veteran help.

簡單來說，火箭天賦爆了，選來也沒時間練，更重要是追求James Harden回歸跟如何利用
60M的薪資空間。

Of all the teams in the high lottery, Houston is the one that seemingly needs
to make a deal most urgently. The Rockets’ quandary, as noted above, is
whether there’s a player available who would justify such a high price, and
if so, whether the Blazers’ pick at No. 3 would trump them.

在高順位幾支球隊中，火箭會是最需要立刻談成交易的球隊。火箭的問題是能否找到一名
球員適配如此高的資產價值，那拓荒者#3 是否會比火箭提供的包裹來得有吸引力呢?

‧ Picking fifth, Detroit is hoping to make a move up this season, but is
that realistic? The Pistons might be better off trying to add another piece
to the Jaden Ivey–Cade Cunningham–Jalen Duren core and seeing what they
have after a 17-win season a year ago. This isn’t a great season to tank it,
per se, with a blah 2024 class waiting, but it’s not clear how Detroit would
move up even if it went all-in on the idea. The Pistons’ core players need
to get better before that’s a realistic strategy.

Yes, Detroit could theoretically trade its pick at No. 5, but look at the
landscape. News flash: The picks at No. 3 and No. 4 are more desirable than
the one at No. 5. With Portland and Houston likely looking to deal, it means
the Pistons will be third at the trough when it comes to
lottery-pick-for-star type trades; it’s tough to come up with one star
player who could fit the bill for a trade like this right now, let alone
three. The Pistons’ best move is likely another year of quiet building, and
perhaps hearing teams out on deals for Alec Burks and Bogdan Bogdanovio댊
活塞天賦也爆了，更應該追求戰績並整合，沒錯！所以活塞#5 也會非常想交易的，
但#5比不上 #3 & #4，所以有三支球隊都在找明星球員，但談成一位明星都非常難了，
更何況同時間有三位明星可以談，活塞更可能安靜地繼續選秀重建

‧ On a related front, I have some terrible news for fans generating fake
Mikal Bridges trades: The Nets don’t seem to have much incentive to play
ball here. Brooklyn owes unprotected picks to Houston in 2024 and 2026 and
unprotected swaps in 2025 and 2027. Thus, Brooklyn trading its good players
and tanking would do a lot more for the Rockets than the Nets. Brooklyn’s
likely best path forward is to muddle along with a Bridges-centric team,
especially since he’s signed through 2026 to one of the league’s best
contracts.

必須打醒這群生產籃網大橋交易假新聞的人，籃網欠火箭2024 & 2026無保護首輪，
2025 & 2027 首輪交換權。所以籃網根本不能坦，更可能圍繞大橋且戰且走，尤其
他簽下了全聯盟最好的合約直到2026年。


‧ Two other picks insiders expect to be in play: Dallas’ selection at No.
10 — likely paired with either or both of Dāvis Bertāns and JaVale McGee
to bring in more immediate help — and the Thunder’s pick at No. 12. In
Oklahoma City’s case, it’s still a long-term play, but the idea is that the
Thunder would use their surfeit of future picks to move up in this lottery;
they somehow have only one pick this year but are likely to have four firsts
in 2024 and still have four future firsts from other teams in 2025 and beyond.

小犢#10 可能會打包波燙或Mcgee去換即戰力，雷霆#12 會尋求向上交易順位

--------

短評或心得：

翻完真的有趣了，要找明星或戰力的球隊很多，肯定也包含季後賽隊伍，
Simons + #3的吸引力很可能沒有拓迷設想的這麼高?

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 61.230.3.118 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/BLAZERS/M.1684548710.A.513.html
推 mhkt: Hollinger講這話很實在
推 lovesinker: 我拓要win now又去換#6+#11沒意義吧?養一個變養兩個?
→ foolishbi: 有前提阿 他是說選到Scoot的話
→ foolishbi: 而且除了#6+#11 還有魔術其他球員
推 silent2468: 現在看來假如Scoot掉下來 交易價值應該比較大
→ silent2468: 假如是Miller掉下來 我們可能自選 然後把#23拿去解鎖
→ silent2468: 首輪 再拿之後的首輪搭球員去交易 這樣好像合理點
→ foolishbi: 因為研究一下 全明星控衛其實很多隊伍都缺
→ foolishbi: Scoot Henderson非常有可能成為全明星控球後衛
推 jelitec: 那如果他去別隊飛天了   我們應該被笑慘
推 eight1223: 從熱火可以看出一個教練的好壞能決定天花板，爛瓜你怎
→ eight1223: 麼交易都沒用
推 LillardTime: 怎麼大家都想拿今年的籤解鎖首輪 今年是可能到#30都
→ LillardTime: 還有好球員的一年耶 明年挑的都不一定好
推 jelitec: 認真覺得3號拿去換一個"所謂的All star"以後會後悔，加上
→ jelitec: 我大槍瓜加持
推 asd07633: 明年是超小年哦
推 Lillard: 因為給人的只要沒解鎖 若有大交易要談包裹 後面幾年的首
推 Lillard: 輪都不能動 S級球星基本都會談到的…
推 Ansel: Scoot高機率養成全明星 但沒辦法阿拓被小李綁架了 只能衝
→ Ansel: 一波 不然以Simon/Sharpe/#3最好的時間軸是2-3年後趁#3/S
→ Ansel: harpe還沒換約前拼一發 小李去換綠賽JB這種兩年後還在巔峰
→ Ansel: 期的球星 時間上比較搭得起來
推 jelitec: 唉兩難啊  賭失敗的話感覺未來很涼
→ jelitec: SH+Sharpe 未來看起來也很不錯
推 hcl00: 明年超小年 連Bronny都能排進首輪了
→ hcl00: 先看Nurk Ant能不能談個先發鋒線或是補強內線吧
推 mhkt: 阿拓真的要想想看其實拿到#3這個籤位  就代表能有天賦可挑
→ mhkt: 缺乏天賦的你們  最好還是留著用
→ mhkt: 除非有打算炒短線 All in  不然自用養成總比交易好
推 therealntu: 支持自選
→ therealntu: 我拓養成真的不差
→ foolishbi: 肯定啊，聯盟規則探花籤我們最少可以綁8年
→ foolishbi: 尤其我們養後衛超強的啊，選到Scoot年度隊
→ foolishbi: 我是覺得滿有機會的XDDD
推 therealntu: 已經想像到38歲的老李被交易走的scoot得50分嗆瞎
→ therealntu: 先不要好了
推 lovesinker: 抬價啊，ㄧ直喊不賣的話這樣想要探花的球隊就會自己
→ lovesinker: 來求我們賣，這樣價格高多了
推 silent2468: 欸不是 我們還得看黃蜂臉色 才知道能不能選到Scoot啊
推 CHUNGHUA: f大 你拿圖片前面那段說話的是Schmitz的前同事Givony說
→ CHUNGHUA: 的耶XD
推 youtoo: 我覺得我們會有交易但小李跟三號簽都不會動
推 loveless01: 現在多幫熱火加油，打爆綠賽。換到布朗的可能性就高點
→ foolishbi: 我前面說的選秀大神Mike Schimitz是錯的
→ foolishbi: 拍謝 掃文章掃太快  ㄏ
→ foolishbi: 害我太興奮了 Schmitz接管理職之後就沒出現在公眾平台
→ foolishbi: 發話了，再次拍謝傳遞錯誤
→ foolishbi: https://i.imgur.com/IDC0jIE.jpg
→ foolishbi: 我很喜歡的Lively 準備來我拓試訓了
→ foolishbi: 不過自從我板上寫完他的分析，順位就狂飆
→ foolishbi: #23 應該是選不到他
推 lovesinker: 系列賽看下來 我覺得熱火的Martin比杰倫好用
推 isaiah2727: LaVine or DDR + 24Por首輪 -> #3 牛迷覺得可以xddd
推 hcl00: 我覺得不行
推 youtoo: 我覺得騎士的艾倫還是活塞的小魔獸可以去問問，有護框有
→ youtoo: 活動力又不需要球權的長人比較適合，至於公牛那兩位雙槍
→ youtoo: 就不用了，換他們我覺得自己養比較划算
推 todaies: 如果只有DDR跟Lavin我寧願#3留下來XD
→ todaies: Sharpe應該保底Lavin了
推 therealntu: 火靈哥說bridges不太會被交易了
→ therealntu: https://i.imgur.com/bo4s1a2.jpg
推 silent2468: DDR不差吧 雖然季後賽好像會打折 跟小李也有私交 不
→ silent2468: 過當然不會用#3換就是了
→ silent2468: 籃網可以問看看DFS跟O'neale
※ 編輯: foolishbi (61.230.3.118 臺灣), 05/21/2023 03:59:06
推 CHUNGHUA: #23如果公牛不願意收下來解鎖我們未來首輪籤的話，#23
→ CHUNGHUA: 可以考慮拿去換DFS也是個不錯的選擇
推 tahikuro: 全明星控球後衛最近10年都拿不到冠軍
→ tahikuro: 韓德森變明星也沒大損失 他也沒到莫蘭特佛克斯等級
推 therealntu: 近10年都拿不到冠軍？難道勇士那四冠是假的XDD
推 youtoo: 我是沒興趣，但是國外網友有建議去問灰熊槍神莫蘭特
推 Ansel: 不只Ja，再把小喬一起找來，Jail Blazers榮光再現
推 joystation: 熱火好扯喔到底為什麼他們是老八
推 lovesinker: 杰倫好像不適合梭哈 打法好像有問題 出手選擇很糟 球
→ lovesinker: 商不高
→ foolishbi: 我是沒在看綠賽的比賽，但年度隊可追吧
→ foolishbi: 比布朗好的對象，五根手指頭數得出來
推 lovesinker: 雙J也是不跑位的那種，靠身體條件硬打，給槍西使用應
→ lovesinker: 該會更慘
→ foolishbi: Embiid, Ingram, Siakam, Bridge, PG
→ foolishbi: 除了Siakam 之外，其他都要吹密才有可能
推 joystation: 教練可以交易嗎我覺得濕婆可以用首輪換XD
→ foolishbi: 我願意出兩首輪，然後新秀給SPO養
→ foolishbi: 落選秀養成這麼猛，大概換約都至少全額中產
推 lovesinker: 阿爹比Ayton 猛多了 換他好了
推 impossible: 只要還是畢總，不管換誰來，都會瞬間退化5成功力
推 youtoo: 杰倫拜托不要，我完全可以想像他來了後濫投的樣子
推 Ansel: 這系列打完杰倫會掉價 阿拓想換也只能換這種了 沒多少能挑
→ Ansel:  心中首選西卡，再來杰倫，最後沒辦法只能OG 但OG不能出#
→ Ansel: 3
→ otblue: 杰倫不掉價，我拓哪有機會換得到…
推 hcl00: JB好歹也打到季後賽 Siakam可是季後賽都沒得打
→ hcl00: 這順序怪怪的吧 更何況還是到期約
推 Ansel: 排序個人喜好而已 不過跟有沒有進季後賽無關吧XD  另外西
→ Ansel: 卡 杰倫 OG貌似都剩一年約
推 youtoo: 我不覺得這四隊有後衛比小李好，但小李也沒季後賽打，杰
→ youtoo: 倫市場價值的確很高，但他不能解決我們缺長人的問題
推 CHUNGHUA: 但杰倫的打法，屆時應該會壓縮到Sharpe的空間，這點其
→ CHUNGHUA: 實會讓人蠻頭痛的
推 pennykidd: 西門加上#23換DDR也可以考慮 若是小修小補的話
推 youtoo: 西門應該不是拓荒者的吧，走錯棚嗎？
推 lovesinker: 一句話暴露了非拓迷的身分
→ foolishbi: 杰倫打3是效益不高嗎？  大家感覺滿卻步的
→ foolishbi: https://i.imgur.com/6sCYauP.jpg
→ foolishbi: 近三年位置時間都是SF > SG
→ foolishbi: 前兩年效益SG好，但今年SF好，原因是啥？
推 lovesinker: https://i.imgur.com/ch9TrDF.jpg
推 godmother: 我在FB看到，Brandon Miller試訓成績似乎不太好
推 isaiah2727: 選秀前會有很多煙霧彈 助理GM應該很熟悉xDDD
推 CHUNGHUA: 看到是說BM跟各隊面談時的應答似乎沒那麼好，然後外加
→ CHUNGHUA: 他之前似乎是生了一個叫mononucleosis(google翻譯為核
→ CHUNGHUA: 單細胞增多症)的病剛恢復，體重掉了13磅之外，所以近期
→ CHUNGHUA: 也沒有做籃球的訓練，不過我是覺得Schmitz應該之前就已
→ CHUNGHUA: 經做足研究了，就看看球團整體的評估如何
→ CHUNGHUA: 然後這也搞不好是Schmitz叫他的老同事Givony出來幫忙帶
→ CHUNGHUA: 個風向也不一定XDDD
推 hcl00: 之前好像哪個球員也是得這個
→ hcl00: 網球的費爸也得過 當時直接從巔峰下跌的樣子
推 joystation: 煙霧彈可能性很高，去年也沒人想到我們會選Sharpe不
→ joystation: 選吸塵器
→ joystation: 倒是有點好奇職業運動員面試都問什麼問題
推 kamasawa: 應該是試訓，不是面試？
推 joystation: 前面推文說有面談應該是試訓的一個項目吧
推 youtoo: 說真的如果是現在我還真的會想3號簽往下換簽+人，如果要
→ youtoo: 跟小李賭一把當然要即戰力
推 FAYeeeeeeee: 小李交易來爵士啦 他之前說過如果真的被交易
→ FAYeeeeeeee: 希望是爵士 因為母校在旁邊
→ FAYeeeeeeee: 不過爵士手上只能出後衛 對你們沒幫助
→ foolishbi: 小李應該不會離隊啦，如果像暴龍那種盤子價硬吞沒比較
→ foolishbi: 好，賭#3的即戰力也是一種路線
→ foolishbi: 向下換不能超過溜馬#7，側翼很可能被選完
→ foolishbi: 火箭#4+#20，魔術#6+#11，溜馬活塞乳摸沒有
→ foolishbi: B.Miller > J.Walker > Hendricks > Whitmore
推 youtoo: 我還是最想要活塞的長人+五號籤，但是我覺得除非有BM 否
→ youtoo: 則活塞不缺後衛應該沒的談
→ foolishbi: #3 + Little 換活塞 #5 + J.Duren ?
→ foolishbi: 哈哈 其實我覺得可以當成一個方案 滿喜歡的
推 AtDe: 活塞不缺1號，沒啥理由換吧
→ foolishbi: 你看前三行啊，“活塞除非有BM"
推 oude: 魔術有富兒子根本不會想要Scoot Hendson
→ foolishbi: 富兒子或許能再進步，但Scoot新秀合約直接配Banchero
→ foolishbi: 我覺得還行啊，不然國外也不會討論乳摸，還一堆贊同
→ oude: 覺得富兒子+GaryHarris換小李再互換選秀還比較有可能
推 BrandonRoy: 富兒子+GaryHarris換小李？
推 youtoo: 太棒了，小李完全被看沒有
→ foolishbi: ......= = 我很後悔回你推文
推 therealntu: 支持 未來富兒子大概是巔峰curry等級
→ therealntu: 小李一輩子庸庸碌碌 我拓小賺
→ oude: 如果再收Scoot 一定會出掉一些後衛 加上之前有看到說如果
→ oude: Wanger和Banchero養好後 不排除會找其他明星 合理安排就賣
→ oude: 富兒子 加上GaryHarris一直想賣
推 oude: 不過我實在不覺得魔術想要Scoot, 富兒子的缺三分, Scoot也是
→ oude: 實在不覺得收Scoot有什麼好處