[分享] BWF球評Steen對東奧延期看法

[kelly51633 (自由幻夢)]

在IOC正式宣布2020東京奧運延期後，BWF 球評 Steen Schleicher撰寫了一篇文章，關於
這個消息對羽球五個項目的相對有利或不利的選手，文中是以Winner (贏家)和 Loser (
輸家)來作為代表文字。


原文連結 ： https://bit.ly/2xqOaJu

https://i.imgur.com/7ysBWo4.jpg

總結Steen的觀點：

女單Winner：馬琳、安洗瑩、辛度
女單 Loser ：小戴、陳雨菲、何冰嬌

男單Winner：桃田、安東森、石宇奇
男單Loser：諶龍

男雙Winner：小黃人、Kim /Anders、李俊慧/劉雨辰
男雙Loser：遠藤/渡邊

女雙Winner：SaraThygesen/ Maiken Fruergaard
女雙Loser：Polii/Rahayu

混雙Winner：喬丹/美拉蒂、Chris & Gabby Adcock
混雙Loser：無

———完整原文如下————

Olympic Games postponed

Who are the winners and who are the losers from a badminton perspective?

Today it was announced that the Olympic Games 2020 will be held in 2021 in Tok
yo. More NOCs were calling for a postponement of the Games due to the current
Coronavirus situation, and eventually the International Olympic Committee and
the Japanese government came to the same conclusion.
The 2020 Olympic Games will now take place sometime before the end of summer 2
021, though probably not between 11th June to 11th July 2021, since these are
the dates targeted by the Euro 2020 Football Championships.
There is no doubt several overall winners and losers from this decision. I’m
not going to try and predict who they are in general, but in the following I’
m taking a closer look at which badmintonplayers that might have come out on t
op or bottom of this decision.

We still don’t know exactly how the BWF will treat the tournaments postponed,
 cancelled or suspended, that were scheduled to count towards qualification fo
r Tokyo2020. If some of the tournaments is both rescheduled and included in th
e qualification rankings, then there might be some winners in terms of players
 that were, as of now, not qualified, but through good results in re-scheduled
 qualifying events will earn a spot in Tokyo. Of course, this will also produc
e some losers then. Namely the players that is going to lose the spot they wou
ld have had, had the qualifying come to a stop on 28th April. Which might stil
l be the cut-off date.
There is a tough situation to deal with for BWF. Because what do you do in ter
ms of access to the Main Draw and Qualifying Draw as well as seedings, if the
tournaments are blend together in a new schedule, regular events and qualifyin
g events all mixed up. And they (BWF) would probably have to take a decision b
ased on less than 100% information, because who knows when the different natio
ns and continents will be able to open up and focus on badminton. Based on tha
t I could very well see BWF stick to 28th April as the Cut-off date.

Men’s single Winners:
Kento Momota
For the world number one it looked like a race against time to regain form aft
er the car accident in Malaysia. He will now have extra time to get in good sh
ape on for the tournament on home soil.

Anders Antonsen and Shi Yu Qi
Both suffered ankle injuries during the qualification period. Antonsen doesn’
t have to rush his recovery now, whilst Shi YuQi whi has been racing against t
ime, after having surgery on his ankle, now has more time to get in shape.

Men’s single Losers:
Chen Long
This could also work the other way around, that he is gaining from the postpon
ement. He just became a father, and that often times takes a while to get used
 to. I still fear though that Father Time is catching up on the reigning Olymp
ic Champion, who has won one tournament in the qualification period. It seems
that he has trouble increasing the pace over a certain level, and even though
I’d love to be wrong I don’t think it’s going to getter better as time goes
 by.

Women’s single Winners:
Carolina Marin
She has had a fantastic comeback since tearing her ACL in January 2019. But sh
e has also been going ever since, and that must have been stressful. Furthermo
re, her dad is hospitalized at the moment, and I don’t see how that could not
 affect her during the spring and summer. Now she gets a break from badminton,
 and we know that she and Fernando Rivas have the formula for winning big even
ts.

An Se Young
She has slowed down a little bit after winning French750 and Korea300, and som
e of the other nations have gotten some video footage on her. Yet I have no do
ubt that she will benefit from having 6-12 month extra to develop and get used
 to being a top contender.

P.V. Sindhu
Hasn’t played well since she won the World Championships in August 2019. Now
she gets a chance to prepare better for Tokyo, but I think she has to develop
her game technically as well to be in contention.

Women’s single Losers:
Tai Tzu Ying & Chen Yu Fei
Not really losers, but they have clearly been the two best players since the W
orld Championships in Basel. And when you’re in great shape you pretty much w
ant to capitalize on it immediately. Tai is finally back after the stomach inj
ury she suffered back in December 2018, and Chen seems to be really solid at t
he moment.

He Bing Jiao
Like Chen Long this could go both ways as well. The extra time at hands might
see her get in fantastic shape and go for Gold. But it’s been a while now sin
ce I started saying that she was a “sleeper” waiting to emerge. As time goes
 by, naturally you have to question whether it will ever happen. And from behi
nd Wang Zhi Yi seems to just get better and better, and I think she might be a
ble to overtake He Bingjiao’s spot in Tokyo, even though the new coaching tea
m seems to a little less willing to make decisions like that compared to the d
ays of Li Yongbo.

Men’s double Winners:
Kevin Sukamuljo/ Marcus Gideon
Kevin is getting stronger from the backcourt area, and I think it is working.
The more time he gets to practice the worse for their opponents.

Kim Astrup/Anders Skaarup
The Danes have been in a tough fight with Mathias Boe/ Mads Conrad for the Dan
ish spot in Tokyo. Boe has already announced that he’s retiring either after
Thomas Cup or after the Olympics. The postponement makes it hard to see him pr
olong his career with another year.

Li Jun Hui/ Liu Yu Chen
Except for Malaysia500 the Twin Towers hasn’t really played well for a while.
 This basically goes for all the Chinese men’s doubles, and the postponement
should give them a chance to regroup.

Men’s double Losers:
Hiroyuki Endo/Yuta Watanabe but this is a really thin call. I think though the
y would have liked to build on their All England victory, and their great H2H
against the minions.

Women’s double Winners:
SaraThygesen/ Maiken Fruergaard
Thygesen is injured again. Same injury that kept her out for five month in 201
8-19. So for the Dane who did so well in Indonesia500 it is nice that she does
n’t have to stress rehabilitation.

Women’s double Losers:
Greysia Polii/ Apriyani Rahayu
They’ve won two tournaments in 2020 already, even though they crashed out in
first round in Birmingham. Add to that, that it also seems as Father Time is c
atching up on Greysia Polii in terms of mobility, then 6-12 months extra is a
long time. On the other hand she might be able to give her body a break and re
cover well, and then they would dangerous dark horses.

Mixed double Winners:
Praveen Jordan/ Melati Oktavianti
Even though they come from their biggest accomplishment so far, I still see th
em – especially Oktavianti – being able to benefit from the postponement. Ok
tavianti played a great All England, that Jordan can play we’ve always known,
 and I feel that she hasn’t reached her maximum potential yet. So getting ext
ra time to develop should help them as a pair.

Chris & Gabby Adcock
They were (are) in a close race against Marcus Ellis/ Lauren Smith, and as I s
ee it they were losing that race. Now they have a chance to bounce back and ma
ke a case for themselves.

Mixed double Losers:
None, perhaps Smith and Ellis due to the above competition with the Adcocks, o
n the other hand I think they’ve raised their level.


All this is of course my subjective thoughts and opinions, and I can’t wait f
or Badminton tournaments to back hopefully sooner than later.
—-—原文結束———

https://i.imgur.com/4oTN64Z.jpg

文中提及了這麼多選手， 但Steen 只配一張上面的截圖，即使不是什麼特別的畫面，但
有小戴就是愉悅(腦粉)

https://i.imgur.com/R056PkN.gif

--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Badminton/M.1585096836.A.AE1.html
推 iamshana    : 不是很多人說對大帝有利嗎
→ akira666    : 雨菲：？？？XD
→ suba1121    : 可能覺得陳雨菲要再維持一年的高檔有難度吧？倒是安
→ suba1121    : 多一年磨練的確利多 辛度是可以多一點時間準備大賽
→ iamshana    : 不利的沒有老天跟山萬耶...
→ jago        : 看看就好,至少女單的馬琳跟辛度我反而看衰。
→ jago        : 至於陳雨菲也沒理由看衰，22-23歲的年紀，正值巔峰
推 ysh         : 女單我覺得是對安世瑛最有利！！
→ ysh         : 男雙的loser我覺得還有阿山阿萬！明年更老了！
→ DDJJ1069    : 小戴當年的高檔2016中~2019上半年，也維持三年左右
→ DDJJ1069    : 小戴當時的年紀(22~24)。
→ DDJJ1069    : 完全不覺得大帝會因此不利。現階段幾個元祖天才少女
→ DDJJ1069    : 們也只剩下小戴可以贏大帝了，到了明年大帝對戰小戴
推 kinght0250  : 山萬拖到明年應該狀態也不會差太多，打養生了
→ DDJJ1069    : 只有更多體能上的優勢。
→ kinght0250  : 是說男雙沒有人期待蔚蔚了嗎QQ?
推 zaza302107  : 陳雨菲根本大利多
推 andrewla    : 這篇女單很棒呀 小戴是賭狗剋星(=預測剋星) 今年全
→ andrewla    : 英不是打臉誰的預測了嗎 嘻嘻
→ suba1121    : 也是 請小戴繼續打臉~~
→ edos        : 沒有一定啦,小戴跟大帝的比賽,運彩一向開小戴低賠,
→ edos        : 去年年終賽跟今年初的大馬站,買大帝的就賺到了
推 comesome    : 陳何都是利多吧
推 leeyongdae  : 那這樣2020跟2021會有世錦賽嗎？
推 adamsuit    : 對於延期 我們體育署今天有開記者會 只說會配合IOC
→ adamsuit    : 但目前對於已取得參賽資格的選手不會重來算
→ adamsuit    : 但是沒有提到羽球 因為嚴格來說羽球尚未有"正式資格
→ adamsuit    : 所以一切靜待BWF公告了
→ adamsuit    : 體育署也開始加強心理諮商 因為有選手會覺得明明今
→ adamsuit    : 年可以調整好狀態卻延期等種種不安定的狀況
→ adamsuit    : 體育署也會配合指揮中心加強防疫讓選手放心訓練
推 Rx770       : 我想到還有郭婞淳　她也是年紀較大了
→ Rx770       : Steen：沉睡的阿嬌
→ Rx770       : 覺得這篇有上新聞的潛力XDD
推 vins        : 我覺得他忽略了王祉怡，有可能取代何冰嬌去東奧
推 Alicealex   : Steen不是反指標嗎？
推 Rx770       : 中國派出大小帝軍團
推 iamshana    : 還有鄭怡靜 她1992的
→ iamshana    : R大有啊 自由有這篇
→ Rx770       : 喔喔是喔！！
→ suba1121    : 跟R大一樣想到舉重 其實我還有想到體操
→ akira666    : 亞運那個四金照裡面也就李最年輕了 其他都1993 1994
→ akira666    : QQ
→ soria       : steen的邏輯是現在高峰期的明年就慘了
→ soria       : 不過我看馬琳現在也算有調整到高峰期就是 畢竟她早
→ soria       : 就預設今年會打奧運
→ soria       : 但我覺得馬琳明顯無法高速三局了吧 全英就看得出來
推 tommy770726 : 瑪琳速度大降 辛度網前又廢了 戴菲今年原本最有機會
推 Alicealex   : 馬琳只要不是遇到小戴，應該也是高速三局，畢竟破壞
→ Alicealex   : 節奏很傷體力
→ Rx770       : 說到這個，她上次打李美妙決賽那場我好像還沒看，
→ Rx770       : 請問那場馬琳狀況如何，有受到疫情影響什麼的嗎？
→ adamsuit    : 一樣到第二三局就慢了失誤暴增 所以馬皇能高速贏茜
→ adamsuit    : 真的很驚人 尤其那場真的直接開TURBO到小茜只能追球
→ Rx770       : 那可能只能推斷說無法一週高速五場球，在八強四強前
→ Rx770       : 斬殺對手應該還是ok的？
推 Rx770       : 反正我是被全英八強馬茜戰那場的速度嚇到，四強打小
→ Rx770       : 戴也還是可以？但戴馬戰來看，第一局後面小戴是追
→ Rx770       : 分狀態
推 soria       : 我覺得今年全英 馬琳無疑奧運狀態
推 iamshana    : 如果八強是馬戴先遇上 結果應該還是一樣吧？
推 soul1       : 馬皇還是有心態影響手感的情況啦，一旦有點不順
→ soul1       : 她很容易會連著幾球都比較離譜的失誤，算是很
→ soul1       : 需要教練幫忙拉出來的類型，當然打順了就砍瓜切菜
→ soul1       : 所以破壞馬皇的連貫讓她打不順是對付她最好的辦法
推 a20713      : Steen全英不是預測大帝可以成功衛冕嗎XDDDD
推 BroSin      : Chris Gabby?認真？
推 lovingyou   : 英國夫妻從來沒打出來過吧~丹麥女雙我也不看好啊@@
→ lovingyou   : 難道他的意思是本來只有16強~進步到八強也算得利嗎?
推 iamshana    : 丹麥女雙今年是不是贏過福廣松高？
推 dd          : 也想到舉重和體操+1 >=<
推 seven711    : 山萬阿北球，延到明年感覺也還好，對於養生組跟正在
→ seven711    : 巔峰組影響不大
推 Rx770       : https://youtu.be/VeoOs1-Qi80 電訪李智凱和戴爸
推 dwyanelin   : 請問這樣小戴的球后時間也是繼續往上加嗎
→ dwyanelin   : 還是也會中斷
推 dd          : 謝謝R大的新聞連結~~
推 ysh         : 世界排名可能會凍結
→ ysh         : BWF還在研擬