[情報] 今年退出大聯盟選秀的人暴增、未來會越

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MLB Draft Withdrawals Are Soaring In 2026—Here’s Why

2026年MLB選秀會退出人數暴增——原因就在這裡

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This year, 18 players have officially withdrawn from the the MLB draft, a number
 that would have seemed shocking just a few years ago. But it’s a clear sign of
 how the game is changing.

今年已有18名球員正式退出MLB選秀，這個數字若放在幾年前，幾乎令人難以置信，但這也
清楚顯示，棒球環境正在發生改變


Whereas colleges could once offer only a bump up in the amount of scholarship mo
ney they provided players to try to induce them to come to school or stay for an
other year, now with NIL they can match—or in some cases, exceed—what MLB team
s are willing to pay to land these players in the draft.

過去大學只能透過提高獎學金金額，吸引球員入學或多留校一年，如今在 NIL（姓名、肖像
與形象權）制度下，大學提供的報酬已經能與MLB球隊開出的簽約金匹敵，甚至在某些情況
下還更高


We should make it clear that we are not talking about top draft prospects. There
 is no school offering NIL compensation packages that come close to what the fir
st- and second-round picks will land via draft bonuses. For players like Justin
Lebron or Ben Blair, the decisions are usually easy. These top picks are viewed
as likely future big leaguers who will receive seven-figure signing bonuses to b
egin their pro journeys.

必須先說清楚，這裡討論的並不是頂級選秀新秀，沒有任何學校提供的 NIL報酬能接近首輪
、第二輪球員所能獲得的簽約金，對於像Justin Lebron或Ben Blair這樣的球員而言，決定
通常非常簡單，他們被視為未來的大聯盟球員，將獲得數百萬美元的七位數簽約金，展開職
業生涯


But when you get further down the draft board, there comes a point where the cal
culus changes. By Day 2 of this year’s draft, the players viewed as most likely
 to have MLB futures will have already heard their names called. When the sevent
h, 10th, 15th and 20th rounds roll around, teams are picking players who are oft
en viewed as long shots to be big leaguers. Instead, they are players expected t
o perform solidly in Class A, but likely to hit a point in Double-A, Triple-A or
 after a cup of coffee in the majors where their lack of tools, athleticism or s
ome other flaw will mean they reach a ceiling.

但隨著順位往後，情況就會改變，到了今年選秀第二天，被認為最有機會登上大聯盟的球員
大多已經被選走，等到第 7、10、15、20 輪時，各隊挑選的往往是被視為「有機會但希望
不大」的大聯盟候選人，他們通常能在 1A有穩定表現，但到了 2A、3A，甚至短暫登上大聯
盟後，往往會因工能性、運動能力或其他缺陷而遇到發展天花板


Every year, some of those third-tier draft prospects prove everyone wrong. But m
ore often than not, they end up spending two, three or four years in the minors
before they are released to begin the rest of their lives.

每年都會有少數第三梯隊的新秀打破外界預期、證明所有人都錯了，但更多情況下，他們是
在小聯盟待了兩、三甚至四年後遭到釋出，接著展開人生的下一個階段


And those are the players for whom the landscape has changed.

而真正受到這波變化影響的，正是這一類球員


For those players, colleges have found that they can be financially competitive
with MLB teams. And that kind of money has also created a new form of leverage f
or schools to create some clarity in what is the most uncertain part of the year
-long process of roster building.

對這些球員而言，大學已發現自己在經濟條件上已經足以與 MLB 球隊競爭，這筆資金也讓
學校擁有新的談判籌碼，在一年一度最不確定的陣容規劃過程中，提升球員去留的確定性


A few draft withdrawals each year have long been a part of the MLB draft process
. Unlike the other major U.S. sports, in which players become draft-eligible by
expressing their intention to enter the draft, baseball players don’t declare f
or the MLB draft. Instead, every single eligible player is automatically draft-e
ligible whether they intend to sign or are equally adamant that they plan to go
to college/stay in college.

每年出現幾位退出選秀的球員，本來就是MLB選秀的一部分，與其他美國主流運動不同，那
些運動需要球員主動宣布參加選秀；棒球則不是如此，只要符合資格，所有球員都會自動具
有選秀資格，不論他們打算簽約，還是早已決定要升學或留在大學


So, instead of making a statement that a player wants to be part of the MLB draf
t, a player who does not want to be draft-eligible instead has to officially dec
lare to MLB that they do not want to be drafted.

因此球員不是透過聲明表示要參加選秀，而是如果不希望被選，就必須正式向 MLB提出退出
選秀的申請


Usually, a couple of high school prospects each year submit a withdrawal, making
 it clear they intend to go to college and do not want to be even considered for
 the draft. This year, there have been a significant number of college players w
ithdrawing. Some of these withdrawals remain the same as before—a player is ada
mant that they want to stay in school. By withdrawing, they don’t have to deal
with phone calls or answer questions about how firm that commitment is.

以往每年通常只有幾位高中新秀會退出選秀，明確表示自己打算升學，不希望球隊選中自己
，但今年退出選秀的大學生球員明顯增加，其中有些原因仍與過去相同——球員已下定決心
留校，因此退出選秀後，就不用再接到各隊電話，也不用反覆回答自己留校意願是否堅定


But in other cases, players are facing a choice presented by colleges: Withdraw
from the draft or face a reduction in their compensation package if they end up
staying in school for the upcoming year.

但另外一些球員則面臨學校提出的選擇：退出選秀，就能保留完整的待遇；若仍參加選秀，
最後又回到學校，待遇就會被調降


The offer is a simple one. A school will say something to the effect of, “Here
is your compensation package. If you withdraw from the draft, you get all of thi
s. But if you opt to take your chancs in the draft, your package will be reduce
d.”

學校提出的條件其實很簡單，大意就是：「這是我們提供給你的待遇，如果你退出選秀，這
些都能拿到；但如果你決定參加選秀試試看，那麼這份待遇就會縮水」


For a player who was strongly leaning on going (or staying) in college anyway, s
uch a decision becomes an almost necessary one. Why lose significant money that
is already lined up on the uncertain chance of getting more money in the draft?

對原本就傾向升學或留校的球員而言，這幾乎成了不得不做的選擇，既然已有一筆確定能拿
到的收入，又何必為了可能獲得更多、但充滿不確定性的選秀機會而冒險失去它？


As such, a player’s agent will get a feel for their client’s likely bonus rang
e. If a player begins to realize that they are unlikely to receive equivalent mo
ney as a draft bonus to their NIL package, then they withdraw from the draft in
what is almost a no-brainer decision.

因此球員經紀人通常會先評估球員可能獲得的簽約金範圍，如果球員發現自己在選秀中很難
拿到與NIL待遇相當的金額，那麼退出選秀幾乎就是毫不猶豫的決定


Nowadays, we are seeing third- and fourth-tier draft prospects who have learned
they are worth more to their college team than they are to pro clubs. A savvy, e
xperienced college player with modest tools but solid production generally fits
in the second day of the draft. They are draftable, but not a priority for teams
. And their low six-figure signing bonuses would reflect that.

如今許多第三、第四梯隊的新秀發現，自己對大學球隊的價值，其實比對職業球隊還高，一
位經驗豐富、比賽表現穩定，但天賦普通的大學生球員，通常會落在選秀第二天被挑中，他
們具備被選中的實力，但不是各隊優先目標，因此簽約金往往只有十幾萬美元等級


But as a returning senior Saturday starter, a reliable shortstop or veteran thum
p in the middle of the lineup, they are worth more than that to a college team w
ith hopes for reaching Omaha in 2027. In some cases, players are finding they ca
n make more money going back to school for another year than they would going pr
o.

但如果他們回到大學，成為資深先發投手、可靠的游擊手，或是打線中心的主力打者，對一
支以2027年打進大學是大賽為目標的大學球隊而言，價值就遠遠超過那筆簽約金，有些球員
甚至發現，再留校一年所賺的錢，比現在投入職棒還多


Those players will be less appealing to MLB teams next year. Because of the rece
ntly adopted NCAA eligibility rules changes, those players will be seniors next
year, but will in many cases still have eligibility for a fifth season in 2028,
if they so desire. So, while they will be seniors next season, they won’t be tr
ue “senior signs” with no negotiating leverage. They will still be older, thou
gh, and a 22- or 23-year-old draft prospect is less appealing to teams than a si
milar caliber player who is only 21.

不過這些球員到了明年的選秀，對MLB球隊的吸引力將有所下降，由於NCAA 最近修改了資格
規定，這些球員雖然明年會是四年級生，但很多人在2028年仍保有第五年的參賽資格，因此
他們雖然是高年級生，卻不是完全沒有談判籌碼的「Senior Sign」，然而他們年紀終究更
大，22、23 歲的新秀，相較於同等實力但只有21歲的球員，對球隊吸引力仍然較低


Still, those types of players may have made more money by staying in school than
 they would make in pro ball unless they exceed expectations. And for that reaso
n, the trend of larger numbers of draft withdrawals will likely continue to clim
b.

儘管如此，除非他們進入職業後的表現遠超預期，否則留在大學所獲得的收入，很可能仍比
投入職棒更多，因此可以預期，未來退出 MLB選秀的人數還將持續增加




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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Baseball/M.1783912636.A.E86.html
推 CavendishJr: #我ok你先加#加了還是繼續唸書幹嘛加
推 GyroZeppeli: 但越晚去職業身價也會越低就是了
推 CrossroadMEI: 而且有大學學歷也比高中學渣好多了
推 polanco: 感覺影響還好？這些後段的原本就很可能去大學了 現在只
→ polanco: 是多了退選的動作
推 Edison1174: ncaa新制對mlb影響還好 nba的影響才大
推 pponywong: 發現當網紅靠流量賺錢就夠了
推 Feeng: 就跟NBA一樣阿 打大學聯賽比去職業聯賽賺錢
推 p08171110: 沒差吧 就在學校多練一年，反正市場終究會取得平衡
推 doozia: 能夠減免學雜費念大學，這個吸引力確實對美國家庭很重要
推 aikotoba: 如果天賦不高真的不如去NCAA打球待價而沽
推 i4303348: Ncaa太會賺錢了
推 pohan0921: 只有福袋價的不如唸大學 未來換跑道至少還有學歷
推 ELF007: Cole就是先去大學啊  08年NYY第一輪28順位 4M簽約金放棄
→ ELF007: 11年海盜用狀元選他  簽約金8M  如果08-11評估要蹲小聯盟
→ ELF007: 小聯盟三年賺不到4M  13年他就上大聯盟了
推 aimgel: 要是在台灣 一定會說少子化造成
推 trnet433: 有些選手在大學磨過球技，身價是會上升的
推 Sechslee: 所以MLB老闆乾脆放棄競爭 目標以後只選大學畢業生
→ JustinIdiot: Cole的情況跟文中提及的不一樣 Cole是嫌簽約金不到
→ JustinIdiot: 位
→ bestial: 棒球跟籃球球員成熟期有差，念完大學身價未必比較差
→ bestial: 就連日本也是，選秀也未必社大比高中生差
→ baron1860t: 這年代在大學聯賽能領到的錢可能不輸小聯盟了?
推 abc12812: 後段雜魚要出頭的機會本來就很低 能賺先賺
→ fp737: 大社成熟度好  很有機會短時間就接上一軍
推 ts1993: 什麼不輸 很多根本超過了
→ jim12441: NBA更慘，很多首輪末二輪前的都退出
推 hanx5566: 小聯盟太窮，不如在學校練，練起來還提高簽約金
推 busman214: 今年NBA選秀退出多是因為不想和大年的大物撞吧@@
推 icecreamdog: 可借轉NCAA板？在美國大學是工作了
推 mike13112: 美國大學養成環境也很好，先去大學之後選修的時候身價
→ mike13112: 未必會下降
推 hornets1221: 明年要封館吧
推 cowardooooo: 大概跟合庫台電能留住一些選手的意思差不多
推 icecreamdog: NCAA 還能拿學位呢 很多運動不錯的大學 學術也很好
推 Ischolar: 應該是把免學費的價值也算進去了。私立一年6萬鎂，四年
→ Ischolar: 就23萬了