[分享] Skenes 分析自己「有些奇怪」的上半季

[Yjizz (Zz菊池大谷西舘zZM)]

Skenes analyzes 'weird' first half, addresses questions over velocity drop

Skenes 分析自己「有些奇怪」的上半季，回應外界對球速下滑的質疑。

July 15th, 2026
Jason Mackey
https://www.mlb.com/news/paul-skenes-analyzes-his-first-half-addresses-questions-over-velocity-drop
https://shorturl.at/qActg


PHILADELPHIA -- While the outside world spent plenty of time over the past
few months pondering what’s wrong with Paul Skenes -- the dip in velocity,
nine games without a win -- the Pirates ace has remained methodical.

費城訊──過去幾個月，外界花了不少時間討論 Paul Skenes 到底出了什麼問題，從球速
下降到連續九場先發未能拿下勝投，各種質疑不斷。然而，這位海盜隊王牌始終維持一貫
按部就班的步調，不受外界聲音影響。


Skenes hasn’t wavered. He trusts his process and believes the
under-the-hood numbers his starts have produced will normalize in the second
half.

Skenes 並沒有因此動搖。他相信自己的訓練與調整流程，也認為那些先發登板中展現出的
各項進階數據，將會在下半季逐漸回歸正常，反映出他真正的投球內容。


The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner also isn’t a dummy.
There are things he can improve, sure. But that conversation for Skenes doesn
’t involve his fastball velocity, which has certainly been a hot-button
topic.

這位現任國聯塞揚獎得主當然也不是看不清問題的人。他知道自己仍有可以改進之處，但
在他看來，需要檢討的地方並不包括速球球速──儘管這一直是外界最熱烈討論的焦點。


“I think it’s funny [reporters] only ask [about velocity] when I don’t
have a good outing,” Skenes said while reflecting on his first half at the
MLB All-Star Game. “In those outings, I don’t think I really got damaged on
my four-seamer.”

「我覺得很有意思，記者只有在我投得不好時，才會問球速的問題。」Skenes 在明星賽期
間回顧自己的上半季時表示。
「但就算是那些內容不理想的比賽，我也不認為自己真正是被四縫線速球打垮的。」


It’s an interesting question and one that deserves a deeper dive. Despite
the velocity dip, the performance of his four-seamer has actually been solid,
arguably the best of his career.

這確實是一個值得深入探討的問題。儘管球速有所下降，但 Skenes 的四縫線速球實際表
現依然相當穩定，甚至可以說是職業生涯至今最出色的一年。


Among the numbers to consider:
‧ Opponents are hitting .195 against Skenes’ four-seamer compared to .205
last year and .230 as a rookie.
‧ They’re slugging .352 against it versus .347 last year and .351 during
his first season.
‧ When it comes to Baseball Savant’s run value, Skenes’ four-seamer in
2026 (11) is on a similar pace to last season (20) and far ahead of 2024 (7).
Yes, his average velocity has dropped from 98.8 mph as a rookie to 98.2 in
2025 and 96.6 this season. But how much does that really matter? In Skenes’
mind, not much.

以下幾項數據值得參考：

打者面對 Skenes 四縫線速球的打擊率僅 .195 ，優於去年的 .205 ，也比新人球季的
 .230 更低。

對手面對四縫線速球的長打率為 .352 ，與去年的 .347  及新人年的 .351 幾乎維持在
相同水準。

 以 Baseball Savant 的 Run Value  指標來看，Skenes 本季四縫線速球的數值為 (
11) ，依目前進度與去年的 (20) 相近，且明顯優於 2024 年的  (7) 。


Yes, his average velocity has dropped from 98.8 mph as a rookie to 98.2 in
2025 and 96.6 this season. But how much does that really matter? In Skenes’
mind, not much.

沒錯，他的四縫線速球平均球速，已從新人年的 98.8 英里，降至 2025 年的 98.2 英里
，本季更下降到 96.6 英里。但這究竟有多大的影響？在 Skenes 看來，答案是：影響並
不大。


“I don’t think velocity is something I need to pitch well,” Skenes said. “
I think it’s probably the first time in my career the velo has kinda dipped.
It’s not something that I’m stressed over at all. I’m healthy. I’m
feeling good and still pitching at a high level.”

Skenes 表示：「我不認為一定要靠球速才能投得好。」
「這大概是我職業生涯第一次出現球速下滑的情況，但我完全不會因此感到壓力。我身體
很健康，狀況也很好，而且依然維持在很高的投球水準。」


Skenes called his first half “weird” and “interesting.” The numbers
certainly support that, too.

Skenes 形容自己的上半季是「很奇怪（weird）」、「很有意思（interesting）」
的一段歷程，而各項數據確實也支持他的這種感受。


Over his first two seasons, Skenes’ actual ERA was actually 0.61 better than
his expected mark. This year -- for a variety of reasons that include both
things Skenes can control and poor defense behind him -- his actual ERA
(3.57) is 0.86 higher than his expected (2.71).

生涯前兩個球季，Skenes 的實際防禦率（ERA）比預期防禦率（xERA）還要低 0.61，代表
實際成績甚至優於預期。
但本季情況正好相反。受到多種因素影響，包括他自己可以控制的部分，以及隊友守備表
現不佳等原因，他目前的實際防禦率為 3.57，比預期防禦率 2.71 高出了 0.86。


At the same time, there are a bunch of numbers with Skenes that fit well
within his career norms.

不過，與此同時，Skenes 的許多核心數據其實仍與生涯平均水準相當接近。


Another sampling:
‧ His expected batting average against is .203 compared to a career mark of
.199.
‧ His expected slugging percentage against is .320 compared to a career mark
of .315.
‧ His strikeout rate is 29.5% compared to a career mark of 30.6%.
‧ His walk rate (5.5%) is actually a career low.

以下幾項數據就是例子：

對手的預期打擊率（xBA）為 .203，與生涯平均 .199 幾乎沒有差異。
對手的預期長打率（xSLG）為 .320，與生涯平均 .315 相當接近。
三振率為 29.5%，與生涯平均 30.6% 相差不大。
保送率僅 5.5%，反而是職業生涯最佳（最低）紀錄。


“It was a really interesting first half, because I don’t think I’ve thrown
the ball poorly,” Skenes said. “But obviously some numbers look different.
The strikeout rate is in a very good spot. The walk rate is in a good spot.
Not giving up hard contact consistently. For whatever reason, the ERA is a
little higher. Not something I’m losing any sleep over. It’s just been kind
of a weird first half in that sense.”


Skenes 表示：「這真的是一個很有意思的上半季，因為我並不認為自己投得不好。」
「但很明顯，有些數據看起來確實不同。我的三振率依然很好，保送率也很理想，而且也
沒有持續被擊出強勁擊球。不知道為什麼，防禦率就是比較高一些。不過這並不是會讓我
睡不著覺的事情。從這個角度來看，這確實是一個有點奇怪的上半季。」


Quality of contact is another area worth considering with Skenes. His
hard-hit percentage of 37.4% represents a career low. The average exit
velocity he’s allowed fits his career norms, too: 87.8 mph in 2024, 87.6 and
87.9 the past two.

打者擊球品質也是評估 Skenes 表現的重要指標。他本季的強勁擊球率（Hard-Hit Rate
）為 37.4%，創下職業生涯新低。
至於被擊出的平均擊球初速（Exit Velocity）也與生涯水準一致：2024 年為 87.8 英里
，過去兩個球季則分別為 87.6 英里與87.9 英里。


Skenes’ barrel rate (6.1%) is slightly above his career average (5.7%), but
we’re splitting some serious hairs at this point.

Skenes 本季的 Barrel （完美擊球/出色擊球）率為 6.1%，略高於生涯平均的 5.7%，但
兩者差距其實微乎其微，幾乎可以忽略不計。


So, how would Skenes grade his first half?

那麼，Skenes 會如何替自己的上半季打分數？


“Probably a B,” Skenes said. “Not terrible. Could have been better. I
think I’ve learned a lot. Interesting first half.”

Skenes 回答：「大概是 B 吧。」

「不算糟，但還可以更好。我覺得自己學到了很多東西。這確實是一個很有意思的上半季
。」


One of the things Skenes learned is that there’s been a lot of fuss over the
performance of pitching coach Bill Murphy. Suffice to say, Skenes doesn’t
share those concerns.

Skenes 也發現，外界對投手教練 Bill Murphy 的執教表現有不少批評與質疑。不過可以
確定的是，Skenes 並不認同這些看法。


He’s really enjoyed working with Murphy and believes many of the problems
the Pirates pitchers have experienced -- they have a 4.32 ERA, 20th in MLB --
are more player-driven than anything.

他很享受與 Murphy 共事，也認為海盜隊投手群目前遭遇的許多問題──全隊防禦率
4.32，排名大聯盟第 20 ──主要還是來自球員本身，而不是教練團的問題。


“The job of a coach is to make it simpler for you,” Skenes said. “I think
[Murphy] does a good job of that. ‘Throw your four-seamer here because it’s
really good when you do that.’ It’s that simple. Go down the list with all
the pitches.

Skenes 表示：「教練的工作，就是把事情變得更簡單。」
「我認為 Murphy 在這方面做得很好。他會告訴你：『你的四縫線速球投到這個位置效果
最好，所以就投到那裡。』事情就是這麼簡單，其他球種也是同樣的道理。」


“People can point fingers there, but I don’t think success or failure from
a player is ever on the pitching coach.

「大家可以把矛頭指向投手教練，但我不認為球員的成功或失敗，應該由投手教練來承擔
責任。」


“I think they can help. I think pitching coaches can change careers. But the
player is the one who does the work and who goes out there and actually
throws the ball.”

「我相信投手教練確實能提供很大的幫助，甚至有能力改變一名投手的職業生涯。但最終
真正付出努力、站上投手丘、把球投出去的人，還是球員自己。」


https://darkroom-clips.mlb.com/08000c4b-0b87-480c-97fc-f6af312dae1d.mp4


In Skenes’ case, there are areas for improvement, too. If you look closely
at his three seasons and feel comforted by certain trends continuing, it’s
also fair to point out when numbers have changed.

就 Skenes 而言，他當然也還有可以改進的地方。如果仔細檢視他這三個球季的數據，固
然可以因為許多趨勢依舊維持穩定而感到安心，但同樣也不能忽略那些已經出現變化的數
據。


For example, Skenes has thrown a career-low 46.4% of his pitches in the
strike zone. That’s down from 50.7% last season and below the MLB average of
48.7%. When it comes to pitches that actually result in strikes, that number
has declined from 66.1% as a rookie to 65.1% last year and 64.8% in 2026.**

例如，Skenes 本季投進 好球帶（Zone%）的比例僅  46.4% ，創下生涯新低，不但低於去
年的 50.7% ，也低於大聯盟平均的 48.7% 。
若進一步觀察最終形成好球的比例（Strike%），也從新人球季的 66.1%，下降至去年的
 65.1% ，本季則為  64.8% 。


Enough to make a huge difference? Debatable. But when Skenes has struggled,
it has most often included some combination of two-strike and fastball
execution and the need to be around the plate more.

這樣的變化是否足以造成巨大的影響？仍有討論空間。
但當 Skenes 投得不理想時，問題往往都出現在幾個環節的組合，包括兩好球後的解決打
者能力、速球的控球與執行品質，以及需要更頻繁地把球投進好球帶。


There’s also his pitching style. As a rookie, Skenes ranked in the 100th
percentile of run value achieved by his offspeed stuff, the result of nobody
touching his splinker. That pitch hasn’t been as effective (drop in run
value from 17 to 2) or as frequently used (28.4% to 11.3% in 2026).


此外，Skenes 的投球策略也有所改變。
新人球季時，他的 Offspeed Run Value 高居全聯盟   100 百分位 ，主因就是幾乎沒有
打者能有效掌握他的 Splinker 。
然而，本季這顆球的威力已有所下降， Run Value  從 (17) 降至 (2) ，使用率也從
(28.4%) 大幅下降至本季的 (11.3%) 。


Since his worst start of the season July 1 in Philadelphia, where he
allowed eight runs (seven earned) in just four innings, Skenes has also
changed how frequently he relies on his fastball, throwing it 51% and 60% of
the time over his last two starts.

自從 7 月 1 日在費城繳出本季最糟糕的一場先發──  4 局失 8 分（其中 7 分自
責）──之後，Skenes 也開始調整配球策略，提高速球的使用比例。
在最近兩場先發中，他的速球使用率分別達到 51% 與 60% 。


That’s more akin to how Skenes has attacked in the past, it’s allowed him
to consistently pound the zone more. It could also help his splinker play up
because the two tunnel off each other well.

這樣的配球方式，更接近 Skenes 過去成功時的投球模式，也讓他能更持續地攻擊好球帶
。
此外，速球與 Splinker 之間原本就具有良好的【球路共軌效應（Pitch Tunneling）】
，提高速球使用率，也有助於讓 Splinker 的欺騙性與效果再次提升。


It’s why Skenes isn’t worried. If anything, he’s excited to get going in
the second half, believing he and the Pirates still have plenty to prove.

也正因如此，Skenes 並不擔心自己的狀況。
相反地，他反而相當期待下半季的到來，因為他相信，不論是自己還是海盜隊，都還有很
多事情值得去證明。


“We’re in a good spot,” Skenes said. “Kind of wish we didn’t have an
All-Star break at this point because we’re playing good baseball. But I’m
super-confident in our ability to show up after the break.”

Skenes 表示：「我們目前的狀況其實很好。」
「老實說，我甚至有點希望現在不要有明星賽休兵週，因為我們最近打得相當不錯。不過
，我對球隊在明星賽後重新出發的表現，依然充滿信心。」



-- Jason Mackey:
[[e-mail]](mailto:[e-mail]) and @JMackey_PGH
on X.
——Jason Mackey／MLB.com 海盜隊隨隊記者

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 49.217.241.162 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Baseball/M.1784166376.A.F0F.html
推 polanco: 推 他今年的進階數據還是很好看 確實有可能在下半季反彈
→ polanco:
推 taddy0540: 這就是棒球，一切都很完美，但結果不完美XD
→ Yjizz: 之前NINJA還是X上有人放的疊影(角度問題/偵數不同步)
→ Yjizz: 雖然不百分百正確 但身體一些姿勢/幅度跟去年不太一樣
→ Yjizz: 不知道是不是也是一個面對打者些許差異的原因
※ 編輯: Yjizz (49.217.241.162 臺灣), 07/16/2026 10:03:33
推 same60710: 從他生涯三季的ERA跟xERA比較 好像可以理解為什麼防禦
→ pujos: 本來就很反智，他今年速球進階比去年更好，結果這時候你不
→ pujos: 信進階了
→ same60710: 率在近代棒球的重要性也相對下降
→ pujos: 說白就先射箭再畫靶，結果論，進階數據只是拿來解釋的理由
→ pujos: ，用的人根本不信這套
推 SlamKai: 棒球科學家
→ scott0104: 好幾場一場爆跟隊友守備在搞吧
→ Yjizz: http://i.imgur.com/E0lYEc3.jpg
→ Yjizz: http://i.imgur.com/Io2nnU0.jpg
→ Yjizz: http://i.imgur.com/E4jdJG0.jpg
推 eddy12357: 老了
→ Yjizz: http://i.imgur.com/BjdSk97.jpg
→ Yjizz: http://i.imgur.com/1cf7WWQ.jpg
推 sunnyyoung: 投不進好球帶 打者別打就不會被壓制
→ eellee: 不信跟信 前提是要有專業 一堆人大概進階數據也只是看數
→ eellee: 字根本不懂這些數字的真實意義 所以遇到問題就馬上懷疑數
→ eellee: 據
推 i376ers: 拿過CY了 希望手臂不要太早壞掉
→ zego41: 不是不信進階，最近一場被費城打爆肉眼可見速球壓制變弱了
→ zego41: 轉速球速同時下降，才被懷疑是不是手臂疲勞開始出現問題
→ Yjizz: spin/movement 比往年的確是更趨近聯盟平均
推 yiersan: 484為了省力 壓制力就難免下降
推 worf: 不要受傷就好
推 foxey: 通常數字掉下來就是哪邊有傷只是球隊球員不講
推 marginal87: ERA這個數字本來就很難每年維持吧。 和PA數動輒3、400
→ marginal87: 相比，局數了不起一年150-200。分母不大，分子一點點
→ marginal87: 變動的影響就太大了
→ Minihil: 會不會是速球降了所以更好鎖定其他球種
推 tarcowang: 會不會是速球降速導致splinker 容易被辨識，像朗希季
→ tarcowang: 初球速不夠，指叉就騙不了人。
推 s2022s: splinker去年就不太好用了
推 a8312116: ptt主要都是懷疑他要受傷了
推 IMBonjwa: 優文。感謝翻譯
→ AHEAD099: 今年LOB%倒數的 應該是有點倒霉
推 alenn: 推