[討論] Passan其實也不是不願意解釋打擊率 禮貌問題

[EZ78 (EZ78)]

https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1951747434549289092

有人誠心發問為啥打擊率不重要了 這老哥就很有禮貌的認真回答

Great question, John. For most of baseball history, the walk was sneered at
-- a lesser form of getting on base compared to the exceptional skill it
takes to swing. The analytical revolution in the game changed that. If the
objective of the game is to outscore a team, then the likeliest way to score
runs is for people to get on base. Post-Moneyball, on-base percentage
replaced batting average as more reliable metric for helping produce runs.

Batting average was almost a victim of its own popularity, though. Because it
does matter. It's just not the first determinant of a baseball player's
quality. Sometimes I do fear the pendulum has swung too far in the
anti-batting-average direction.

Let's take three players as examples, with their batting averages, on-base
percentages and slugging percentages:

Manny Machado: .302/.361/.507
Juan Soto: .248/.383/.486
Eugenio Suárez: .248/.319/.572

Three totally different hitters. Machado is balanced and batting
average-heavy. Soto’s average is deflated but he’s an on-base savant thanks
to the highest walk rate in the major leagues. Suárez is a masher whose high
slug is his calling card.

So who’s the best? Well, if you’re judging by a metric called weighted
on-base average, which seeks to be a catch-all offensive number that is
park-neutral … they are pretty much identical.

It goes to show: Offensively, there are plenty of ways to be really good. A
great batting average is never a bad thing. But a poor one, as Soto and Suá
rez illustrate, does not doom you to mediocrity.

https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1951753083790238007

A few postscripts, if I may:

- Characterizing a .248 average as poor is wrong. The league-wide average is
actually .246. Which I personally think is problematic. I'd love to see more
balls in play because balls in play = action and forcing the defense to make
a play demands skill.

- There is also the concept of BABIP -- batting average on balls in play.
Historically, the league-wide BABIP, determined by how often balls put in the
field of play (home runs not included) land for hits, was around .300.
Because of better defensive positioning, that number is closer to .290 these
days. Some years, guys have excellent ball-in-play fortune. And some years,
they don't. BABIP luck is often the difference between a good average and a
lesser one, whereas walk rate tends to be much steadier year-over-year.

- Another sub-category is batting average with runners in scoring position.
This isn't particularly steady year-over-year, but it damn sure is important
when it comes to run production. And some players just have a knack for
hitting better with RISP than others, which illustrates another reason
batting average itself is but a partial story.

- There's strikeout rate, too. The strikeout has become an accepted part of
hitting. I hate that. If you put the ball in play and it has a 29-30% chance
of falling for a hit, then shouldn't an outcome with a 0% chance of falling
for a hit thusly be penalized? Smarter people than me have determined that if
higher strikeouts are the cost of higher slug, the tradeoff is worthwhile. I
get the premise. I just find it to be an uglier form of a beautiful game.

https://imgur.com/r2Txh4w

--
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推 alex8725: 524:我只看打擊率 打擊率最讚
※ 編輯: EZ78 (98.113.171.65 美國), 08/04/2025 08:32:42
→ jeff1013: 但他最大的問題是嘴一個明明上壘率也不差的人生涯只有
→ jeff1013: 打擊率能說嘴
→ jeff1013: 當然你能說他嘴的那個人是老害 要嘴他當然也沒問題 但
→ jeff1013: 他自己嘴法就是也很白癡
→ EZ78: 那是因為Doug先嘴砲打擊率低=swing decision不好
→ EZ78: 你真的認真跟他解釋就輸了
推 alex8725: Kyle Schwarber某年打擊率超低但長打跟上壘很好 這樣是
→ alex8725: 揮擊策略有問題？？？
→ alex8725: 很多時候打不到球跟揮擊策略根本是兩回事
→ jeff1013: 沒 他今天大可直接嘴他跟不上時代了還只看打擊率 但他
→ jeff1013: 順便嘲諷了他的生涯 你要嘲諷他生涯也沒差 但就根本沒
→ jeff1013: 嘴到點上
推 jeff1013: 而且很多人嘲諷Doug這種拿履歷壓人的嘴法 我百分百同意
→ jeff1013: 這種就是討人厭的老害 但Passan自己不也是啥都沒講 直
→ jeff1013: 接丟一句「你要連球探也討厭嗎？這是球探講的」
→ jeff1013: 這種講法不也是另一種拿權威壓人的戰法
→ jeff1013: 但實際上哪個球探？從哪裡看他出棒選擇好？一個都沒講
→ jeff1013: 這種戰法不就也跟一般低端記者沒差多少
→ jeff1013: 而且Passan一直以來最擅長的不就也是這樣引戰
推 jeff1013: 今天甚至退一萬步講 他今天不去跟著嘴砲 Doug只會更被
→ jeff1013: 當小丑來看 但他故意那樣嘴 說白了不就只是為了流量而
→ jeff1013: 已