[閒聊] Braves are paying the price and What

[turkeyma (...)]

原文發表在The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

By Michael Cunningham

一般來說 ajc 的文章複製網址貼到browser，通常第一篇可以看得到啦….

https://tinyurl.com/hjsdbfux

內文就不多提了，我想說的就是…..

What if ……

In a multi-universe, AA renewed the contract of FF prior to the 2021 season desp
ite of the financial difficulty raised by the Covid-shortened 2020 season……..
The difference between the annual salaries of these two players is just a few mi
llion….. sign…..


———————————-

Braves paying the price for committing long-term to Marcell Ozuna
050622 Atlanta: Atlanta Braves left fielder Marcell Ozuna reacts as he leaves th
e field as the Braves’ lost to the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3 at Truist Park on Frid
ay, May 6, 2022, in Atlanta. (Jason Getz / [e-mail])
Caption
Credit: Jason Getz / [e-mail]
MIKE CHECK BLOG
By Michael Cunningham, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2 hours ago
Josh Donaldson was great for the Braves as a short-term rental in 2019. He produ
ced big numbers as a hitter, was sharp at third base and energized the clubhouse
 with his amiable cockiness. General manager Alex Anthopoulos decided that, as a
 long-term investment, Donaldson was too risky. The Braves aren’t in the habit
of give contracts of multiple years to older players.

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Donaldson signed for big money with the Twins. To replace his bat in the lineup,
 Anthopoulos signed Marcell Ozuna. He also was great as a short-term rental, exc
ept it turned out he wasn’t that. Anthopoulos signed Ozuna to a four-year, $65
million contract in February 2021, with a team option to pick up a fifth year.

There’s a near-zero chance that $16 million option will be exercised when the t
ime comes. The Braves probably wish they could get out from under what’s left o
f Ozuna’s $16 million salary this season and the $32 million due over the next
two. Anthopoulos made an exception to his usual practice by signing Ozuna to tha
t contract. All signs indicate it’s going to cost the Braves for a while.

Ozuna has played in 92 of 207 possible games since the start of last season (all
 statistics are before games this weekend). He’s hit .222 with a .280 on-base p
ercentage over that time with a minus-0.5 Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement. Ozun
a has more strikeouts (88) than hits (80) during that span. His .657 on-base plu
s since the start of 2021 would be sixth-worst in the majors if he had enough at
-bats to qualify.

There’s no sign of a turnaround for Ozuna. This season he’s hitting .231. Only
 54 major leaguers are doing worse. Ozuna’s .270 on-base percentage is better t
han just 19 players. Ozuna is not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did two
seasons ago, he’s swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone and he’s
 walking less often. There’s no silver lining in sight for Ozuna.

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Ozuna’s 2020 season is looking like a 60-game outlier rather than a sign of his
 resurgence. That was the risk when Anthopoulos signed Ozuna to a long-term deal
. Ozuna had been an All-Star with the Marlins, solid with the Cardinals and then
 great with the Braves. Anthopoulos re-signed Ozuna based on the premise that he
’d produce like he did for Miami and the Braves. Instead, Ozuna now is one of t
he worst everyday players in MLB.

During 2020 spring training, Ozuna said he hoped to stick with the Braves for lo
nger than one season. That seemed unlikely. The Braves were stacked with good, y
oung talent in the outfield. Ronald Acuna was the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year and
 a 2019 All-Star. The top prospects in the organization then were outfielders Cr
istian Pache and Drew Waters. All three were better fielders than Ozuna.

Ozuna’s big season in 2020 meant he was going to get a long-term deal in free a
gency. It didn’t seem as if the Braves would be the team to pay. They declined
to do it with Donaldson. He singed with the Twins for $92 million over four year
s. Donaldson wasn’t nearly as good for Minnesota as he was with the Braves. The
 Twins traded Donaldson to the Yankees in March and he’s been pretty good this
season.

Ozuna was 30 years old after the 2000 season, not 33 like Donaldson was after hi
s Braves’ tenure. The designated hitter was coming to the NL soon. That would m
ean the Braves could get Ozuna’s bat in the lineup while keeping him out out th
e field. But Ozuna still didn’t seem to be the veteran that Anthopoulos would c
ommit future years to sign. The decision to do so immediately went south for Ant
hopoulos.

Ozuna was struggling to produce when he went on the injured list in May 2021. So
on after that he was arrested on allegations of domestic violence. Later, MLB pl
aced him on administrative leave while it investigated. The league retroactively
 suspended Ozuna for 20 games, but he avoided further discipline. That seemed to
 be a break for the Braves, but Ozuna has become a big drag on the lineup.

Spending on free agents can be very inefficient. Anthopoulos usually limits the
risk by sticking to short-term deals. That’s a prudent approach for a GM who wi
ll never be able to spend Dodgers or Mets money and who inherited a strong farm
system. Before Ozuna, the strategy worked for Anthopoulos.

Anthopoulos signed left-hander Dallas Keuchel during the 2019 season. Keuchel we
nt on to compile the second-best ERA among Braves starters. Donaldson led the Br
aves in WAR during the 2019 season. Anthopoulos signed right-hander Charlie Mort
on to a one-year extension in September. Morton hasn’t been as good this season
 as he was in 2021. If he doesn’t turn things around, then at least the Braves
won’t have to pay him beyond this season.

Ozuna’s contract is a blunder that won’t be so easy to undo. Now the question
is whether Ozuna’s salary will become dead weight for a payroll that can’t aff
ord much of it.

Among Braves players, only Morton ($20 million) is making more than Ozuna ($16 m
illion) this season. Ozuna’s $16 million salary for 2023 is third-highest for B
raves players under contract behind Matt Olson ($21 million) and Acuna ($17 mill
ion). If Ozuna can’t start producing then the options are bench him and essenti
ally eat his salary, designate him for assignment and eat his salary or trade hi
m while (likely) eating a lot of his salary.

I’ll never say a player can’t be traded. I learned that lesson in the summer o
f 2012 when ex-Hawks general manager unloaded Joe Johnson’s onerous contract. B
ut it’s hard to see Ozuna having much value on the market. Ozuna is 31 with one
 really good season back in 2017 and has a domestic-violence arrest on his ledge
r. The Braves are pretty much stuck hoping that Ozuna somehow becomes at least a
 solid major leaguer again.

Every GM makes mistakes. Anthopoulos hasn’t made many big errors while engineer
ing several shrewd moves. Signing Donaldson to a one-year deal was one of them.
Replacing him with Ozuna on a similar deal was another. Then Anthopoulos broke t
he pattern of short-term deals to re-sign Ozuna. That mistake is still costing t
he Braves.


 
 

--
A Historic moment...
May 30, 2003
Atlanta 5, NY Mets 2 at Shea Stadium
Winning Pitcher - Greg Maddux (4-5)
Losing Pitcher - Tom Glavine (5-5)
SV - John Smoltz(20)  HR - C. Jones (9, off Glavine)

--
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推 MizunoTako  : 當初情況不明下，續了Ozuna就表示沒想留FF啊
推 kingwei520  : 應該不是這樣吧？
推 boldorange  : 2020差一點就打進WS,續約ozuna拼2021很合理
推 boldorange  : 應該不表示Ozuna和FF只能留一個。而且今年也證實我
→ boldorange  : 們報給FF的價格是合理的，沒有被Ozuna卡到預算。
推 cj910       : 單純就是Ozuna太貴了 要是他一年6M球迷還會GGYY嗎
推 abyssalpoet : Ozuna這張約就是莫名啊，從簽下去就沒人叫好
推 MizunoTako  : 事前沒人知道疫情什麼時候結束，更不用說預算大漲
→ MizunoTako  : 所以蛹蛹最早開給FF的合約就是疫情價
→ MizunoTako  : 光想想看如果今年預算比2020持平或略低...
→ MizunoTako  : 就能知道簽下Ozuna這個約對FF續約的影響了
推 mystery662  : 當初市場上好的外野手數量不多，加上我們不碰Boras
→ mystery662  : 的客戶，能選擇的不多，而且他當年打的很好，簽他
→ mystery662  : 還算合理，壞就壞在給太多年了....
→ mystery662  : 然後沒想到的是....當初不想留Duvall，現在外野反
→ mystery662  : 而是沒Duvall不行....
推 kingwei520  : 倒是覺得2021簽歐租沒錯，可能被他2020的成績
→ kingwei520  : 給迷惑了，事實上誰都嘛知道完整球季他打不出那
→ turkeyma    : 是說連續兩年FA市場都是外野不行，今年底應該會改
→ turkeyma    : 觀了
→ kingwei520  : 60場的成績。
→ kingwei520  : 季前也有寫手說要送他走不是不行，但要幫吃薪水啊
推 abyssalpoet : 簽歐豬不是不行，不過那個時候市場上沒有明顯競爭者
→ abyssalpoet : 如果出一兩年約留他OK，出到64/4就有點...
→ abyssalpoet : 就像如果看到Rosa去年季後賽鬼神就給他四年大約
→ abyssalpoet : 應該也不會有人覺得OK吧?!
→ turkeyma    : 而且當時市場上可能根本沒有其它報價
推 kingwei520  : 他2020時29歲，拿到銀棒和雙冠王，他會只簽短約？
推 kingwei520  : 費城那個去年進AS，然後也29就拿到上億合約
→ kingwei520  : 他們兩個的OPS+基本上是相差無幾的啊！
推 mystery662  : 費城那位是指Castellanos？他是好選擇沒錯，記得他
→ mystery662  : 是Boras的客戶...所以...沒簽他不意外，不過他簽的
→ mystery662  : 約跟Ozuna好像差不多..
推 kingwei520  : 他簽5年1億耶...
推 mystery662  : 5年 1億.....嗯，有點差距...
→ kingwei520  : 歐租是4年65M
→ mystery662  : AA鐵了心就是不碰Boras的客戶
推 kingwei520  : 比起歐租，應該要擔心還沒在勇士打一場球時就
→ kingwei520  : 直接續長約的Olson.
推 kingwei520  : 不好意思Olson當然就先跳過
→ kingwei520  : 歐租的這個投資案，最壞大概就是變成當時的BJ吧！
→ turkeyma    : Langeliers 這麼快送出去搞不好也是因為Boras
推 MizunoTako  : 一個FA球員的價碼合理不代表蛹蛹應該要留他，更不
→ MizunoTako  : 用說簽下來可能造成的排擠效應了
推 kingwei520  : 不然要簽溢價的Smyly嗎？
推 kingwei520  : 那2021不留他火力就不足，本來就要找人
→ kingwei520  : 現在可能的辦法就是勇勇吃點虧，看Ozuna與Soler
→ kingwei520  : 互換，讓歐租回到生涯起點XD
→ kingwei520  : 排擠效應？
→ turkeyma    : 吃「點」虧 讓Ozuna 和Soler 互換  揉揉眼睛我看到
→ turkeyma    : 了什麼 xD
→ turkeyma    : 怎麼會有馬林魚給點小好處就會換的想法呢
→ turkeyma    : 言歸正傳這筆約走到明年底直接dump掉的可能性最大
推 MizunoTako  : 他持續打這樣應該撐不到明年底啦XD
→ MizunoTako  : 簽複數年約的時候只考慮一年不考慮未來的嗎？XD
推 kingwei520  : 對嘛！Ozuna是排擠到誰了？
推 MizunoTako  : 排擠到任何從2021~2023要續約的人啊XD
推 mystery662  : 當初只留Ozuna不留Duvall或另簽FA的原因，有很大部
→ mystery662  : 份是要讓Pache上來，這就是排擠效應....不然大可兩
→ mystery662  : 個都留，或簽兩個外野，只是沒想到Pache打擊真的不
→ mystery662  : 行...
推 MizunoTako  : 選擇本身沒什麼對錯，只是選擇就會有後果而已
→ MizunoTako  : 不是的...假設2022的payroll沒有增加40M...Ozuna的
→ MizunoTako  : 合約就很有決定性意義，不能只看2021當年的薪資和
→ MizunoTako  : 需求啊
推 MizunoTako  : 至於nontender Duvall單純是覺得他仲裁後的價碼會
→ MizunoTako  : 太高，不願意出那個錢而已XD
→ turkeyma    : 不增加預算但 Dump歐豬的前提，可能是Waters 和 H
→ turkeyma    : arris II 都要收成，我看起來是沒那麼快
推 kingwei520  : 還不是續約了Rosario了嗎？
→ kingwei520  : 會覺得有排擠應該是阿酷受大傷
→ kingwei520  : 不續大佛是因為他的低BA和Price
推 MizunoTako  : 2020年Ozuna簽約的時候無從得知疫情什麼時候結束，
→ MizunoTako  : 如果2021季賽幾乎不開放觀眾入場的話，2022 payrol
→ MizunoTako  : l就會比現在要低非常多
推 kingwei520  : 只能說不是誰都願意買單短約，JD也不願意了啊
推 kingwei520  : 以當時當然看不見未來的事，但2020續歐租
→ kingwei520  : 沒不合理，大家也知道他應該打不出那60場的高效
→ kingwei520  : 會討論這個無非是他從去年就打太爛，然後又無法
→ kingwei520  : 讓他佔著DH這爽缺XD
推 kingwei520  : 事實上如果歐租是因為守備而影響攻擊...
→ kingwei520  : 那真的無話可說了XD
→ turkeyma    : 如果又想到19年被歐豬阻斷季後賽之路就會更加不爽
→ turkeyma    : 不甘心了….
→ turkeyma    : 竟然直接開箱Harris II !!!!!
→ turkeyma    : 左打版歐豬上場！
→ turkeyma    : （只是論其長相和揮擊準備啦）
→ turkeyma    : AA之前特別跑去看他比賽果然是有原因的
推 KyleWright  : Waters被跳過了..XD
推 KyleWright  : 看Harris 24的split 今年打左投很慘
推 kingwei520  : 被Rush了
推 kingwei520  : 從2A直接上
→ turkeyma    : 這個不被rush 一定是老天爺特別施予極大的恩惠了
→ turkeyma    : 174 PA 39K 17 BB
→ turkeyma    : 對戰左投只好讓右手版Harris (歐豬）上場了
推 KyleWright  : 左打真的很缺  剛才才發現限制13個投手的政策要延後
→ KyleWright  : 今天過後多帶一個position player又落空了 不然把
→ KyleWright  : Tromp叫上來 讓Contreras可以比較多時間打DH也不錯
推 kingwei520  : 看資料上Harris 是左右開弓...
→ turkeyma    : 如果Harris 賴著不下去 水哥就可以重返榮耀榮登我
→ turkeyma    : 勇 #1 prospect
推 kingwei520  : 然後被交易XD
推 MizunoTako  : Waters就算交易掉也是蔥花一把啦...
推 bosskiller  : 外野太破爛，所以提前call up?
→ bosskiller  : 反正其他人也很爛，至少防守升級
→ turkeyma    : 本勇過去22位 M-Braves 直升球員
→ turkeyma    : https://tinyurl.com/2p9er7pz
→ turkeyma    : 有一半以上算是有成功的生涯