[閒聊] 聯想電腦:記憶體甜甜價像戰女一樣回不去

[silentknight (清純男)]

PC Manufacturer Lenovo Suggests RAM Prices Will "Never" Go Back To What They
Were

https://www.thegamer.com/lenovo-ram-never-pre-2025-price/


Xbox and PlayStation are making their consoles more expensive, while the
Steam Machine will cost over $1,000 out of the gate. Apple also just quietly
raised the price of its entire Mac and iPad lineup—with top-tier machines
jumping by $1,300 overnight. It is impossible to overstate the impact of the
'RAMpocalypse,' the global memory shortage spurred on by the insatiable
demands of AI data centers. And while many are waiting for a return to
normalcy, leading PC manufacturer Lenovo argues that there will be a "new
normal" from 2030 onwards with significantly higher RAM prices, even if
production ramps up.
Xbox和PlayStation正在提高遊戲機的價格，而Steam Machine的起售價將超過1000美元。
蘋果也悄悄提高了旗下所有Mac和iPad產品線的價格——高階機型一夜之間漲價1,300美元
。人工智慧資料中心對記憶體的龐大需求引發了全球記憶體短缺，這場「記憶體末日」的
影響不容小覷。儘管許多人都在期盼一切恢復正常，但領先的PC製造商聯想認為，即使產
能提升，從2030年起，記憶體價格仍將大幅上漲，屆時將出現一種「新常態」。


As reported by ComputerBase (via Wccftech), speaking at ISC 2026—a German
computing, AI, and quantum conference—Lenovo predicted that memory prices
will "never" return to their pre-2025 figures. That means these absurdly high
computing prices are now the baseline, and $599.99—$799.99 consoles aren't
going anywhere. Higher prices for SSDs and memory modules are already
delaying next-gen plans and forcing developers to reckon with fewer players
upgrading their hardware, placing a greater emphasis on optimization, rather
than iteration. If computing remains this expensive, the entire industry's
growth is about to hit a brick wall.
根據ComputerBase（透過Wccftech）報導，聯想在2026年德國電腦、人工智慧和量子計算
大會 (ISC 2026) 上預測，記憶體價格「永遠」不會回到2025年之前的水平。這意味著
目前高得離譜的運算成本已成為基準，售價599.99美元至799.99美元的遊戲主機將長期
存在。固態硬碟和記憶體模組價格的上漲已經導致下一代遊戲主機的開發計劃延期，迫使
開發者不得不面對硬體升級需求下降的現實，從而更加註重優化而非迭代。如果計算成本
持續如此之高，整個產業的成長將面臨瓶頸。


It's hardly surprising considering the global DRAM market is one of the
tightest oligopolies in the tech sector, with manufacturing consolidated
among just three companies: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Following the boom
in generative AI technology, the trio aggressively shifted their focus to
producing memory components for data centers—a far more lucrative deal than
working with PC and console manufacturers. Not only did this spark a global
shortage, but the trio's absolute dominance also ensures they can dictate
pricing. Valve engineer Pierre-Loup Griffais recently offered a stark insight
into this reality, noting: "They give us a price every month [...] And if we
say no, then they never talk to us again."
考慮到全球DRAM市場是科技領域競爭最激烈的寡占市場之一，其生產幾乎完全集中在三星
、SK海力士和美光三家公司手中，這種情況也就不難理解了。隨著生成式人工智慧技術的
蓬勃發展，這三家公司迅速將重心轉向資料中心記憶體組件的生產——這比與PC和遊戲機
製造商合作利潤豐厚得多。這不僅引發了全球記憶體短缺，而且三家公司的絕對主導地位
也確保了它們能夠左右價格。 Valve工程師Pierre-Loup Griffais最近對此做出了深刻的
剖析，他指出：“他們每個月都給我們報價……如果我們拒絕，他們就再也不會跟我們談
了。”


Building a semiconductor fabrication plant requires billions of dollars and
years of development, leaving the entire gaming and tech industry completely
at the mercy of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, who have abandoned everyday
consumer tech in favor of the astronomical profit margins commanded by AI
data centers. Look no further than Microsoft’s own internal forecasting;
alongside recent Xbox price hikes, the company explicitly warned that console
storage and memory costs have already surged by over 2.5x—and it expects
those costs to double again "by the fall of 2027."
建造一座半導體製造廠需要數十億美元和數年的研發，這使得整個遊戲和科技產業完全受
制於三星、SK海力士和美光等公司。這些公司放棄了日常消費科技產品，轉而追求人工智
慧資料中心帶來的天文數字般的利潤。微軟自身的內部預測是最好的證明；除了最近Xbox
的價格上漲之外，該公司還明確警告稱，遊戲主機存儲和記憶體成本已經飆升了2.5倍以上
，並且預計到2027年秋季，這些成本還將再次翻番。


Even if the AI bubble bursts, prices likely won't improve. Samsung, SK Hynix,
and Micron have already spent billions reconfiguring their physical factory
floor space to produce complex AI memory chips. Furthermore, the trio are
locked into multi-year supply contracts that stretch as far out as 2030.
Regardless of whether data center demand cools down, the legal obligations to
corporate tech giants will remain. And then there's the reality that we've
all had to grapple with after the COVID-19 pandemic: if people are willing to
pay more during a crisis, they'll pay more after, so why reduce the cost?
即使人工智慧泡沫破裂，價格也可能不會下降。三星、SK海力士和美光已經投入數十億美
元改造其工廠廠房，以生產複雜的人工智慧記憶體晶片。此外，這三家公司都簽有長達數
年的供貨合同，最長可達2030年。無論資料中心的需求是否降溫，這些科技巨頭的法律義
務依然存在。還有一點，我們在新冠疫情後都必須面對：如果人們在危機期間願意支付更
高的價格，那麼危機過後他們也會支付更高的價格，那麼為什麼要降低價格呢？

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遊戲機越晚買越貴

荒野的含金量越來越高了


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推 Sechslee: 把錢拿去買記憶體股票就有錢買更貴的記憶體了
推 labbat: 說好的2028年記憶體價格可望正常呢？
→ astinky: 不要跟歷史作對，記憶體終究會循環的
→ MikageSayo: 又把球踢過來了(?
→ DEGON: 哪裡有提到戰女
噓 motw1999: 聯想根本沒自己提到戰女 標題唬爛
→ zw39107: 循環也太不可能回去以前的價格了，有可能是先再漲兩三倍
→ zw39107: 再循環回現在的價格
推 roea68roea68: 只能期望中國做起來卷下去 不然這價格一定回不去
→ zw39107: 中國自己也要發展AI產能也不夠用，而且他們給的報價也沒
→ zw39107: 比較低，有錢能賺幹嘛不賺
→ zw39107: 中國沒有高階HBM反而需要更多中低階的才夠AI用
噓 lyt5566: 戰女呢？
推 orze04: 有人冀望中國能把記憶體價格打下來，現實是他們會一樣高
→ orze04: 價賣
→ orze04: 需求量太大，就算加入中國的產能還是不夠
→ Konaha: 戰女不是還寄生在AGA內嗎 哪有回不去
推 leo255112: 也不能怪記憶體廠，畢竟design 端吃肉真的吃很久了
推 ack0011: 現在DDR3都挖出來用了，甚至連DDR2都開始動了
→ ack0011: 以後真的要去回收場拆記憶體顆粒了
推 linearppt: 要買電腦手機趕快買，現在出來一堆狂燒token的項目，2
→ linearppt: -3年價錢降不下來，產能是不可能短期變出來的
推 wulouise: 我買一股sndk漲的錢夠我買64gb ddr4 xd
噓 SSglamr: 戰女? 幻想文喔
噓 Tsukasayeo: 姆咪
推 AndyMAX: 聯想當然會這樣說 DHL早就跟三巨頭簽長約
推 YYOO: 姆咪蹦蹦跳
噓 coon182: 超譯喔
噓 jeff666: ?