[挖礦] 一些以太幣的情報

[freshego (西西控)]

https://www.reddit.com/r/EtherMining/comments/6t56a0/important_information_
from_todays_ethereum_dev/

縮網址: https://goo.gl/47XJtz

Hi Guys,

I’ve been waiting to do this post until after the Dev meeting today as I
wanted to give an update on Ethereum mining and what we are going to see over
the coming weeks and months. I’ve seen so many questions and so much
mis-information about what is happening that I wanted to try and clear it up.

Some of you may be aware that 3 main issues concerning mining are currently
being actively discussed by the Ethereum dev team:

1. Casper (POS) will not be coming anytime soon
For those of you not aware of what POS is, please go look it up in more
detail but for the purpose of this post, it will be the Ethereum update that
removes mining as it exists today. Once Casper goes live, we will not be able
to mine ETH with GPUs (POW) anymore. Casper was planned to go live towards
the end of this year but has been delayed. While no new date is set, my own
personal estimate is it will come towards the very end of 2018.

POS暫時不會來啦 作者預測大概到2018年年底才有可能實行POS

2. Due to No. 1 above, the difficulty bomb needs to be pushed back to such a
time that they are closer to implementing Casper
For the Ethereum Homestead release in March 2016, code was added to create a
difficulty bomb on the Ethereum network, often referred to as 'The Ice Age'.
The purpose of this code was to increase the difficulty of Ethereum mining
over time as it came to the end of POW and into POS with the difficulty
increasing exponentially as we got closer to the expected POS implementation.
The original planned date at that time for POS was the end of 2016 but when
they realised this was not feasible, the bomb was delayed and given a more
gradual initial impact.

We are now coming towards the end of 2017 and as Casper has been delayed, we
are in a situation were mining difficulty is increasing exponentially. To
combat this, the devs are discussing another delay of the difficulty bomb,
pushing it out by approx 16-17 months and giving themselves that time to
finalise and implement Casper. After todays call, the current expectation is
that this update will role out as part of the Metropolis Byzantium update
which they are expecting to go live somewhere around the last week of
September or first week of October depending on testing.

dev team討論要把炸彈延後到16-17個月之後(大概是作者預測POS會在2018年底的原因)
解除炸彈的大都會協議預計九月的最後一周 或是十月第一周正式啟動

3. In-line with the No.2, they would like to reduce the issuance of ETH per
block to curb Inflation
The dev team have said in previous forums that they expect the inflation of
Ethereum to be approx 4% when it moves into POS. Up until now, the rate of
inflation has been much higher than this, for 2017 it will have been approx
12-13%. As POS will not be coming for another 12 months, they are proposing
that the number of ETH issued per block falls from the current 5 to 3. There
is a larger back story to this debate of issuance that I won’t go into here
but if you feel like researching yourself, this article covers some of it:
https://www.coindesk.com/ice-age-coming-ethereum-users-vote-reducing-block-reward/

dev team本來預計在POS之前eth會通膨4% 但是目前已經通膨12-13%
現在POS又延期 所以他們決定把出塊量從5改成3

So what does this mean for us Miners?

I’m sure everyone here has been aware of the massive difficulty jumps we
have seen while mining ETH over the last number of weeks / months. We have
had 2 very significant spikes in the last month or so with the first coming
around July 10th and the next coming around July 31st. Both of these spikes
where caused by difficulty bombs with the next one expected to land on August
25th, the following one on September 24th and another on October 31st.

For those of you wondering what the real world impact of these bombs going
off is, they are significantly increasing the amount of time it takes to mine
blocks. Before one of the first bombs went off in mid May, it took on average
about 14.5 secs to mine one block which contained 5 ETH. If you look at this
chart https://etherscan.io/chart/blocktime you can see the exact times each
subsequent bomb has gone off to the point we are at now were it is taking
about 21 secs to mine 1 block of ETH. With the current implementation of Ice
Age, this is what block times will look like over the coming bomb drops:

August 25th - 25 seconds
September 24th - 32 seconds
October 31st - 41 seconds

As you can see, the block times are increasing exponentially and by October
31st, it would take 41 secs to mine 1 block of 5 ETH, meaning we would earn
approx half of what we do today. (Not taking into consideration any new
miners coming on board which also drives difficulty up).

目前的難度是每21秒出一塊
 8/25會變成25秒出一塊
 9/24      32秒
10/31      41秒

After the dev call today, we now know that the update to delay the bomb into
2018 will not happen until after the bomb drop on September 24th meaning
there is going to be a very tight squeeze on miners over the coming weeks,
possibly to the point of it costing more in electricity for some people than
what they earn. To make it easy for you to calculate, whatever you earn
today, it will be about 19% less after August 25th. Whatever you earn then,
it will be about 28% less after September 24th. Again, none of this takes
into consideration rising difficulty from potential new miners coming into
the network.

因為大都會在九月最後一個禮拜或是十月第一禮拜才會啟動
所以8/25和9/24這兩顆炸彈是爆定了

意思就是 8/25之後你的收益會減少19% 9/24後會減少28%
P.S. 這裡我覺得他好像算錯了
     我算出來是8/25後收益少16% 9/24後少34.4% 10/31後少48.8% 

When Metropolis Byzantium does go live, we will see the network return to
approx 15sec block times however the issuance will likely reduce to 3. This
means that we will essentially earn the same amount of ETH then as we will
between Aug 25th and Sept 24th (3 per 15s is the same as 5 per 25s). With
this happening, the only thing that will drive the difficulty of mining will
be mining hash power so I would like to touch on that for a moment. Below is
an overview of the mining hash increases we have seen in recent months:

1st May to 1st of June the total network mining hashing power grew from
22.85TH to 34.41 or 50.6%.
1st June to 1st of July it grew to 59.19TH or 72%.
1st July to 1st August it grew to 78.26TH or 32.2%.

However, from Aug 1st to Aug 11th, it has only grew to 79.86TH which is
approx 2%. This massive drop off in mining hash power growth is directly
related to the difficulty bumps we are seeing in the network. I expect that
after the bomb on August 26th, we will see a significant number of miners
leave the Ethereum network and move to other alt coins, massively impacting
the profitability and difficulty of those coins as they go. I believe this
will actually cause a regression in the Ethereum mining hash power through to
the Metropolis Byzantium update. After this update, I expect our mining
rewards will be equal to what we get after the August 26th which is going to
be approx 20% less than what we get today. If that is going to be an issue
for you, you may want to consider selling your rigs now or start researching
what other coins you can mine to stay profitable.

大都會的設定是15秒出一塊 出塊量是3eth
難度相當於8/24的難度炸彈設定 (15秒出3eth 25秒出5eth)
所以當大都會啟動後 預期的收益將會比我們現在的收益少20%

目前ETH的算力增加減緩許多 所以作者預測在8/25的炸彈爆了之後
會有大量的算力離開eth改挖其他貨幣

如果對於目前的收益再少20%無法接受的人 已經可以洗洗睡了...
不對 是可以考慮賣掉顯卡會準備改挖其他貨幣了XD

In summary, it is going to be a very volatile few weeks for mining. After the
difficulty increase on August 26th I expect we will see a large number of ETH
miners move to other coins which will have a large impact both on those coin
networks and coin prices. ETH rewards will be approx 20% less than what they
are today and approx 50% from September 24th until whenever Metropolis
Byzantium launches. The last thing I would like to close with though is this,
the dev team have missed nearly every deadline they have ever set… There is
no guarantee that Metropolis Byzantium will launch in September, October or
even November but at least they understand that block times of above 40s are
going to impact the network and some of the Dapps. This leaves me hopeful
they will have this update out in the vicinity of the timelines they spoke
about today.

根據dev team幾乎每次都會delay的紀錄來說
作者覺得大都會根本不可能在9月或10月啟動 甚至連11月都不會啟動XD

I personally think these changes are a good compromise for miners. Would I
like them to leave the issuance at 5 ETH after the bomb is delayed?
Absolutely!! But as POS was delayed and we will get to continue mining ETH
for another year at least, I feel it is a good trade off.

至少我們還可以繼續挖eth挖一年就是了


重點整理

1. POS延期到2018年年底
2. 大都會會在九月底十月初啟動 但是不期不待 沒有傷害 
3. 先不管難度炸彈和算力增加的問題 大都會啟動後的收益就是現在收益的80%左右
4. 不能接受收益比現在再少20%的朋友 可以準備挖其他幣或賣顯卡惹

以上不負責翻譯XD

--
推 tales0426:一定是給5樓啊
推 gidapops:五樓快出聲
推 AresMars:我沒掛到T_T
推 dyuyu:推好人
推 latteboy:5樓沒lp
→ latteboy:........當我沒說
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 123.204.62.144
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/DigiCurrency/M.1502677869.A.601.html
※ 編輯: freshego (123.204.62.144), 08/14/2017 10:31:31
→ treeson: 所以
→ treeson: 會有大量n卡釋出ㄇ
推 IHD: 不是A卡嗎? ETH 不是AMD嗎?
→ treeson: 很多n因為收益夠還是在挖eth
推 yys310: 開心
推 Ayukawayen: 之前大都會delay 所以大都會delay的可能性很高(?) XD
推 kobekobe007: N卡挖別的收益早比eth高了
推 goldflower: 哈哈好險在之前炒amd卡時出清的差不多了
→ goldflower: 之後算力轉移會蠻猛的
→ kuma660224: 所以之前就說，爆DAG是假議題。
→ kuma660224: 根本挖不到那時,就得跳車轉挖它幣了。
→ kuma660224: 8月難度爆炸已經夠慘，剩現在的80%更慘
推 mephisto79: 難度炸彈炸得礦工嫑嫑的…QQ
推 ECZEMA: 推一個 難度炸彈一個爆一個 之後再減少挖塊獎勵 塊陶啊
→ kuma660224: 拆炸彈同時砍收益，他們只在乎15秒順利出塊
→ kuma660224: 不在乎這樣礦工賺不賺跑不跑，
推 cat654231: 還好吧 30天前跟現在收益差了不只20%
※ 編輯: freshego (123.204.62.144), 08/14/2017 12:52:12
→ kuma660224: delay the bomb into2018聽起來也不是真拆
→ kuma660224: 大概是延後到預期Casper發布前後再爆。
→ kuma660224: 定時炸彈不想讓你挖舊鏈。以保POS鏈必勝
→ kimula01: 有點好奇 開發團隊這樣砍礦工收益用意是在哪裡?
→ kimula01: 是壓抑礦工控制市場能力? 讓以資金為主的來主導ETH??
→ Souseasou3: 避免通膨吧
→ acebruce: 自肥啊 他們自已摔有近半數的eth
推 john801110: 只是想讓大家可以轉移到pos吧
→ kuma660224: 主要是他們自己是持幣大戶。不想給礦工賺
→ kuma660224: 只是暫時擺脫不了礦工，所以要處理炸彈問題
推 ProtectChu56: PoW的tx/s就那樣而已，強調平台的鏈一定走PoS
→ kuma660224: 神奇是7-8月難度大增，但幣值卻漲回來
→ kuma660224: ETH還是最好賺，導致全網算力繼續增加。
→ kuma660224: N卡A卡全都挖ETH,因為ZEC利潤差很多。
→ kuma660224: 不過這可能跟BTC分裂鬧劇有關?
→ kuma660224: 加上ETH產出少,反而吸引想保值看漲的?
→ sweetgold: 只要價格能上去就不會有礦工抱怨的
推 jnlll: 好奇未來價格的變動 價格夠好的話 什麼難度都不是問題
→ jnlll: 感覺近期漲是其他數位幣價格連動
推 treeson: 我是覺得這波漲幅維持助礦工的信心
推 jnlll: 如果開發團隊持有近半ETH 或許他們追求是現有價值最大化
→ kuma660224: 825/924再2波炸彈爆炸。不斷上漲才能抵銷
→ kuma660224: 難度公式pow(2, floor(區塊數量/10萬)-2)
→ kuma660224: 每20幾天大概增加10萬block後，爆一次
→ kuma660224: 早期因為那個-2完全無效化爆炸力，
→ kuma660224: 後期-2也幫不了，變成pow(2, n)發威。
→ kuma660224: 以2的n次方的高速度倍增難度。
→ jnlll: 感謝K大說明
推 goldflower: 如果開發團隊是holder那麼的確會讓人比較有信任感
→ goldflower: 看向隔壁某core團隊...
推 wahaha99: 我不是很懂 一方面推遲POS 另一方面增加挖礦難度
→ wahaha99: 那這個過渡期會如何? ETH會變成只剩少數人能挖的動?
→ kuma660224: 看來是年底前降低難度，避免挖不動。
→ kuma660224: 但同時也降低產出，不讓礦工好賺。
→ kuma660224: 所以人人挖的動，只是獲利會很心酸。
→ IHD: 又要馬兒好 又要馬兒不吃草 會成功嗎?
→ wahaha99: 不好賺 = 挖不動啊 礦工只管獲利的