[假設] 前蘇聯總書記安德羅波夫活得久一點

[TKB5566 (= =)]

以下是維基百科對前蘇聯總書記，安德羅波夫的條目：

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuri_Andropov

裡面有一段寫到：

At home, Andropov attempted to improve the USSR's economy by increasing its
workforce's efficiency. He cracked down on Soviet laborers' lack of
discipline by decreeing the arrest of absentee employees and penalties for
tardiness.[45] For the first time, the facts about economic stagnation and
obstacles to scientific progress were made available to the public and open
to criticism.[46] Furthermore, Andropov gave select industries greater
autonomy from state regulations[47] and enabled factory managers to retain
control over more of their profits.[48] Such policies resulted in a 4% rise
in industrial output and increased investment in new technologies such as
robotics.

下面又寫到：

In contrast to Brezhnev's policy of avoiding conflicts and dismissals,
Andropov began to fight violations of party, state and labor discipline,
which led to significant personnel changes during an anti-corruption campaign
against many of Brezhnev's cronies.[6] During 15 months in office, Andropov
dismissed 18 ministers and 37 first secretaries of obkoms, kraikoms and 
Central Committees of Communist Parties of Soviet Republics, and criminal
cases against high-level party and state officials were started.

然後還有一段：

From 1980 to 1982, while still chair of the KGB, Andropov opposed plans to
occupy Poland after the emergence of the Solidarity movement and promoted
reform-minded party cadres, including Mikhail Gorbachev.[6] Andropov was the
longest-serving KGB chairman and did not resign as head of the KGB until May
1982, when he was again promoted to the Secretariat to succeed Mikhail Suslov
as secretary responsible for ideological affairs.

最後是這一段：

He was generally regarded as inclined to more gradual and constructive reform
than was Gorbachev; most of the speculation centers on whether Andropov would
have reformed the USSR in a manner that did not result in its eventual
dissolution.

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根據維基百科的敘述，安德羅波夫在其掌權期間，

進行了經濟改革、反腐打貪、舉薦支持改革的政治家，總體而言是進行漸進式的改革。

這些做法跟同時期中國的鄧小平有很多相似之處，

那麼，如果安德羅波夫能活得更久一點，比方說活的跟鄧小平一樣長壽，

那由他所主導的漸進式改革，

有可能取代同時期的中國，以低廉工資與豐富原物料，成為世界工廠，

進而使當時中國飛速成長的經濟，改為在蘇聯發生？

而反腐打貪、舉薦有改革思想的政治家，有可能為日後政治改革奠定基礎嗎？

不知道蘇聯有沒有可能因為這樣，從而避免解體的命運？

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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/DummyHistory/M.1690028666.A.7A5.html
※ 編輯: TKB5566 (1.167.40.0 臺灣), 07/22/2023 20:28:12
推 kingstongyu: 社會主義的國家會活得很辛苦嗎?!
推 kingstongyu: 不認得沒有入蘇聯笑話的領導者
→ kingstongyu: 沒有被製成段子的蘇聯領導者不算領導者
推 YYOO: 他和契爾年柯在位都很短
→ kkStBvasut: 問：為什麼安德羅波夫，而後是契爾年柯在共產黨會議上
→ kkStBvasut: 被一致推選？
→ kkStBvasut: 答：這是因為安德羅波夫的腎檢驗結果最差，契爾年柯的
→ kkStBvasut: 心電圖最差。
推 coober: 蘇聯沒有這麼多貧窮的農民工
→ MarchelKaton: 那時候蘇聯經濟就已經衰退了，哪可能讓你慢慢改革