[新聞] 台灣『大罷免』最終無疾而終

[seazilicy (萬事要隨緣)]

1.媒體來源:
外交家

2.記者署名:
Brian Hioe

3.完整新聞標題:
Taiwan’s ‘Great Recall’ Fizzles Out
台灣『大罷免』最終無疾而終

4.完整新聞內文:
After many months of campaigning, Taiwan’s “Great Recall” came to a halt
on Saturday with the unexpected defeat of recall efforts at the polls. Of 24
Kuomintang (KMT) legislators and one mayor up for recall, no recall vote was
successful, despite predictions ahead of time from experts and political
parties that 10 legislators could potentially be recalled. Even Hsinchu Mayor
Ann Kao, who faces removal from office on corruption charges, was not
recalled.
經過數月的動員，台灣的「大罷免」於週六意外宣告失敗。在被提名罷免的24位中國國民
黨立法委員和一位縣市長中，沒有一案通過罷免票；事前專家和政黨甚至曾預測可能有10
位立委遭到罷免。即便面臨貪汙案指控的新竹市長高虹安，也未被罷免。

Though a second wave of recall votes will take place in late August, it will
be smaller, involving just seven legislators. The Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) would need to pick up six seats to change the balance of power in
the legislature – which would require not only voting out KMT legislators
but winning by-elections to replace them with DPP politicians. As such, it is
unlikely this second wave of voting will succeed in changing the balance of
power in the legislature, particularly with the loss of momentum following
the defeat on Saturday.
儘管第二波罷免投票將於八月下旬舉行，但規模縮小為僅七位立委。民進黨必須贏得其中
六席，才能改變立法院的權力平衡──這不僅要將國民黨立委罷免下台，還必須在補選中
以民進黨候選人勝出。考量到週六罷免失敗後動能大減，這波投票恐難以成功改變立法院
的勢力格局。

Taiwan’s Great Recall was a reaction to KMT maneuvers in the legislature in
the past two years. Last year, efforts by the KMT to drastically expand
legislative powers sparked pushback in the form of the Bluebird Movement, the
largest social movement to emerge in the decade since the 2014 Sunflower
Movement. Critics saw the expanded legislative powers as KMT overreach, as
well as potentially dangerous to national security. At the time, KMT
legislators faced allegations of leaking the details of Taiwan’s domestic
submarine program, which raised concerns that the new legislative powers
could be used to force military officials to disclose state secrets.
台灣的「大罷免」源自國民黨過去兩年在立法院的一系列操作。去年，國民黨大幅擴充立
法院權限的嘗試，引發了史上最大規模的「青鳥運動」，是2014年太陽花運動以來最大的
社會抗議。批評者認為，此舉是國民黨的權力擴張，並可能危及國家安全；當時甚至有立
委被指控洩露台灣國內潛艦計畫機密，令人生疑新立法權能否被用來強迫軍方透露國家機
密。

This year, the KMT again sparked pushback by pushing the largest set of
budget cuts in Taiwanese history. Though the KMT claimed that this was
necessary for fiscal balance, the public was alarmed by the reduction in the
defense budget at a time when the United States has increasingly called on
Taiwan to increase military spending or potentially face a loss of support.
Then, with the Constitutional Court having struck down the legislative powers
sought by the KMT last year, the KMT passed legislation mandating a minimum
number of justices for the court to be able to make rulings, then refused to
confirm any nominations of the Lai administration, effectively preventing a
quorum from ever being reached.
今年，國民黨再度引發反彈，推動台灣史上最大規模的預算刪減案。雖然國民黨宣稱此舉
是為了財政平衡，但在美國日益敦促台灣提高軍事支出、否則恐失去支持的背景下，國防
預算的大幅縮減令社會震驚。隨後，憲法法庭駁回了國民黨去年追求的擴權條款，國民黨
立法院再通過修法，規定大法官裁決須達到法定人數，並拒絕確認賴政府所提名的任何人
選，實質上凍結了法庭運作。

The Great Recall was a form of political protest against these moves. It was
on par with the other large-scale social movements that have taken place in
Taiwan in the past decade – except directed primarily toward electoral ends.
As with other movements in the last decade, the Great Recall was largely
driven by youth participation. A number of creative initiatives flourished,
including websites built to gather information about legislators and make it
easier to fill out forms for recall petitions, dozens of promotional films
created by a team of directors, and other endeavors.
大罷免即是對上述舉措的政治抗議，堪比過去十年台灣的其他重大社會運動，不同的是其
主要訴求聚焦於選舉層面。與其他運動相似，大罷免由年輕世代主導，催生了多項創新行
動──如蒐集立委資料並簡化連署表格的網站、由導演團隊製作的數十支宣傳影片等。

Yet the Great Recall also distinguished itself with participation from older
pan-Blue voters, who were mostly veterans. Terming themselves the “True Blue
Army,” the veterans criticized the contemporary KMT as having drifted away
from its traditional stances and toward rapprochement with China. While past
social movements, such as the Sunflower Movement, had seen notable
participation from waishengren – those descended from KMT followers who
decamped to Taiwan following the Chinese Civil War – these were mostly young
people, rather than older voters.
然而，大罷免也因大量泛藍年長選民──多為退伍軍人──的參與而顯得獨特。他們自稱
「真藍軍」，批評當代國民黨偏離傳統立場，傾向與中國和解。過去的社會運動（如太陽
花運動）雖也有不少外省人後代參與，但多是年輕族群，少見年長選民現身。

During the recall campaign, the KMT was usually framed as undermining Taiwan’
s democracy at China’s behest. KMT legislative caucus leader Fu Kun-chi was
singled out as the mastermind of the KMT’s legislative offensives in past
years.
在罷免運動期間，國民黨常被描繪為受中國指使、破壞台灣民主；立法院黨團總召傅崐萁
則被視為過去數年黨內立法攻勢的幕後推手。

The Great Recall proved increasingly reminiscent of an election, with voters
called on to return from overseas and cast ballots. Reportedly, the Chinese
government discounted flights by 40 percent in hopes that Taiwanese living in
China would return to Taiwan to vote. By contrast, civil groups mobilized
among overseas Taiwanese, gathering in the days before the vote at Taoyuan
International Airport to welcome returning voters. Pro-recall groups, the
DPP, and the KMT all held rallies to drive up turnout in the days before the
vote. In spite of heavy rain in some parts of Taiwan, the recall votes
notched 56.22 percent turnout.
大罷免愈發有如選舉，甚至動員海外選民返台投票。據傳中國政府調降機票40%，期盼在
中台灣人返鄉投票；相對地，僑界團體則在投票前數日於桃園機場迎接返台選民。支持罷
免的團體、民進黨與國民黨也各自舉行造勢活動，力促投票率。儘管部分地區降下大雨，
投票率仍達56.22%。

However, in the end the Great Recall was not successful in reaching across
the aisle to sway voters against the KMT. Because the recalls targeted KMT
legislators, the voting took place in districts that traditionally slant
pan-Blue. In these historically KMT-friendly districts, members of the public
were not persuaded to vote out their representatives. Even key targets of the
recalls, such as Fu, survived, despite the DPP deploying 20 percent of its
central party staff to Fu’s constituency of Hualien in an attempt to sway
voters.
然而，大罷免最終未能跨越黨派鴻溝，說服傳統泛藍選區的選民罷免國民黨立委。因為罷
免對象皆為國民黨立委，投票區域都是藍營重鎮，選民並未被勸服撤換代表。即使像傅崐
萁這類主要目標，也成功守住席位；民進黨曾調派中央黨部20%人力至花蓮選區助選，仍
無法逆轉結果。

As this was not a presidential election year and because there were no
head-to-head election battles, the dynamics for the recall were different
than with an election. It is also being debated whether the recalls would
have fared better if the DPP had taken more of a proactive role in organizing
the recalls. The recall campaigns were primarily headed by self-organized
volunteer groups.
由於這並非法定總統大選年，也沒有一對一的選戰，罷免的動態與一般選舉有所不同。坊
間亦有論者質疑若民進黨在組織罷免行動中扮演更積極角色，結果或許會更有利；但實際
上，罷免活動主要由自發志願者團體主導。

In the course of the months of recall campaigning, the KMT was unable to
organize its own recalls against the DPP. Apparently unable to collect
sufficient signatures, KMT local chapter heads increasingly found themselves
in trouble with the law through signature fraud, accused of copying
signatures from party rolls – including from deceased persons – for recall
petitions. This raised questions about whether the KMT’s historically
powerful party machine had weakened to an extent that might allow the DPP to
sway the legislature.
在數月的罷免運動中，國民黨卻未能對民進黨發動任何罷免行動。據稱由於無法蒐集足夠
連署，國民黨地方黨部負責人陸續因簽名造假（包括複製逝者簽名）遭受法律追訴，凸顯
國民黨昔日強大的黨機器是否已衰退，或讓民進黨有機會左右立法院。

The KMT historically was able to maintain power through its extensive
clientelist and patronage networks during the authoritarian period.
Consequently, the DPP has struggled to make inroads into local politics.
While the DPP is able to win presidential elections – and has done so for
three consecutive terms – the DPP has only controlled the legislature for
two terms, from 2016 to 2024. That marked the only time a non-KMT party has
controlled Taiwan’s legislature.
國民黨在威權時期憑藉龐大的客戶主義和利益輸送網絡鞏固權力。因此，民進黨在地方政
治上一直難以打入。雖然民進黨能連續三屆贏得總統大選，但在立法院僅於2016至2024年
兩屆期間掌握多數，這也是台灣史上唯一一次非國民黨政黨主導立法院。

But even if some experts question whether the KMT’s powerful party machine
of the past no longer exists, it was able to turn out enough voters to defeat
the recalls. Turnout was notably high in the recall votes, meaning most votes
meet the benchmarks to be binding, but more voters opposed the recalls than
supported them.
即便部分專家質疑國民黨昔日強大黨機器是否已不復存在，國民黨仍能動員足夠選民擊敗
罷免。這次罷免投票率相當高，多數投票區已達效力門檻，但反對罷免的選票仍多於贊成
票。

After the failure of the recalls, what comes next for Taiwanese politics?
在罷免失敗後，台灣的政治格局接下來將如何演變？

The KMT has largely avoided controversial initiatives such as those that
stoked the Great Recall in past months. But, with its victory at the polls,
the KMT may return to actions aimed at expanding legislative power – the
only branch of government the KMT controls – and curtailing the power of
other branches of government.
國民黨過去幾個月鮮少推動引發大罷免的爭議性提案。然而，憑藉選舉勝利，國民黨或將
重啟擴大立法院權限的行動──這是目前唯一由國民黨掌控的政府部門──並進一步削弱
其他部門的權力。

Perhaps unsurprisingly, in spite of the risk of outraging the public, the KMT
blocked all seven of the Lai administration’s proposed Constitutional Court
nominees in the week prior to the recall vote. The KMT clearly intends to
keep the court frozen.
或許並不意外，即便風險激起公憤，國民黨仍在罷免投票前一週封殺賴政府提名的全部七
位憲法法庭大法官人選，顯示國民黨意圖持續凍結法庭。

The budget debacle earlier this year can be understood as a fight between the
legislature and executive branches of government about who controls the power
of the purse. The KMT-controlled legislative may continue to try and shift
other powers to legislative authority. Other powers sought by the KMT in the
past year include security powers that belong to the executive branch, the
authority to designate restricted waters, media regulation, and investigation
of political wrongdoing.
今年早些時候的預算風波，可視為立法與行政部門爭奪財政主導權的鬥爭。國民黨掌控的
立法院或將繼續嘗試將更多權限收歸立法機關，過去一年中曾追求的權限還包括行政部門
專屬的安全事務、劃定管制水域、媒體監管及調查政治不法等。

With the KMT’s successes in the recall, the political stars of Taipei Mayor
Chiang Wan-an and Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen are on the rise, with both
given credit for the survival of KMT legislators in their respective
constituencies. KMT party chair Eric Chu has suggested that he might step
aside in favor of Lu, while both Chiang and Lu are expected to seek the KMT’
s 2028 presidential nomination.
隨著大罷免的勝利，台北市長蔣萬安與台中市長盧秀燕的政治聲勢水漲船高，二人皆因守
住藍營立委選區而受到矚目。國民黨主席朱立倫已暗示可能退讓給盧秀燕，而蔣萬安與盧
秀燕也預計角逐2028年國民黨總統提名。

Though the DPP was not the organizer of the Great Recall, the KMT framed the
movement as DPP-orchestrated and a means of undermining democratic
institutions. Pan-Blue political figures like bodybuilder and influencer
Holger Chen compared the DPP to Nazis at the KMT’s final election rallies.
Furthermore, the KMT is likely to frame the outcome as a rebuke to the Lai
administration, particularly regarding its efforts to strengthen
securitization in Taiwanese society given rising threats from China.
雖然民進黨並非大罷免的主辦方，國民黨卻將其塑造成民進黨操弄、破壞民主機制的行動
；泛藍政治人物館長陳之漢甚至在國民黨最後造勢大會上將民進黨比作納粹。未來，國民
黨也可能將此結果解讀為對賴政府的警告，特別針對其在中國威脅升高背景下，強化社會
安全化的努力。

The recall results are not necessarily a response to Lai’s overall agenda.
It may be that the electorate as a whole was simply not inclined to oust
incumbents in the course of the recalls. But the KMT may leverage its victory
in the Great Recall to try and constrain Lai. It is also to be seen if there
is any shake-up in the DPP, with party caucus leader Ker Chien-ming perhaps
held responsible for having pushed the party to embrace the recalls.
罷免結果不一定是對賴政府整體施政的評判；選民可能僅是普遍不願在罷免中撤換現任者
。然而，國民黨或將利用這場大罷免的勝利牽制賴清德。民進黨內是否會因此引發內部震
盪──尤其是黨團總召柯建銘是否因推動罷免而須負責──仍待觀察。


5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址)不可用YAHOO、LINE、MSN等轉載媒體:
https://thediplomat.com/2025/07/taiwans-great-recall-fizzles-out/


6.備註:

1.大罷免的起因是因為國民黨

2.即便7位大法官當中有2位的投票獲得部分民進黨反對票，
  但是這還是 國民黨在蓄意封殺憲法法庭運作

3.大罷免是民間發起，與民進黨無關
  Though the DPP was not the organizer of the Great Recall, the KMT framed the
  movement as DPP-orchestrated and a means of undermining democratic
  institutions.
  我怎麼覺得這句話最噁心

4.以上部分觀點被斐姨拿去製作line today看世界
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoCq1mcKXiM 7:40開始

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噓 AMD640: 垃圾廢文 邏輯死亡
噓 child1991: 出口轉內銷一條龍的文章
噓 duck60402: 錢燒了16億叫無疾而終喔
→ duck60402: DPP拿黨產出來賠錢才能無疾而終
推 windmk2: 與民進黨無關，右昌辭職就是為了選舉對吧
噓 Khauf: 幹你娘
噓 rogergon: 40％少數想硬幹，失敗怎麼會覺得意外
噓 aadsl: 野雞媒體
噓 luninyou: 党真的很會做大外宣
噓 megxz: 這種觀點有夠偏頗，也只能騙死忠與外國人
噓 Erechtheus: 「據傳」也可以拿來引述做文章欸
→ zorroptt: 5300億剩300億的秘密
噓 Devenskorte: 別再大內宣了好不好
噓 pfw: 嘔嘔嘔
噓 jerry7668: 又一個內銷轉出口喔?
→ jerry7668: 又花了多少納稅人的錢啊?
噓 CIDgreen: 還想用世界輿論洗喔
推 solsol: 真的很認真罵國民黨還致力幫民進黨洗白
噓 stonerr: 原來館長是政治人物
推 sliverexile: 感覺是中翻英的稿子 外國記者哪會管
→ sliverexile: 館長這種網紅在幹嘛
推 widec: 好了啦 民進黨花多少錢叫人家寫這篇
→ widec: 自己搜一下記者Brian Hioe 丘琦欣
→ widec: 台北社運人士啦 笑死
噓 sid3: 噁爛大外宣
噓 onegaisimasu: 民進党寫手
噓 supertalker: 全部都是民進黨方的說法拿來做成新聞
→ supertalker: 然後只提國民黨，立院民眾黨關鍵8席
→ supertalker: 促成法案隻字未提，寫成是藍綠對決
噓 QQ55555555: 錢燒了16億叫無疾而終喔
噓 uller: 誰