[心得] 季後賽第一輪

[goopa (除此之外)]

隔了一年,我們終於又重新回到季後賽的起點，這次我們第一輪的對手是洋基。
雖然我覺得其實今年季後賽每一隻球隊都不好打,但還是期許球隊可以關關難過關關過!

那麼就讓我們從這篇官網的位置分析開始。
https://tinyurl.com/y79auaev

MLB.com Columnist Mike Petriello

Yankees-Indians: ALDS position-by-position
Cleveland took five of seven meetings between the clubs this season

‧ ALDS Game 1: Tonight, 7:30 ET on FS1
Cleveland is going to be favored in the AL Division Series presented by
Doosan and rightfully so, since the Indians did win 102 games and made
history by winning 22 straight just a few weeks ago. But for as great as the
Indians may be -- and they are -- don't forget that the Yankees specifically
built a bullpen for the playoffs. Expect to see the formula they used in the
Wild Card Game repeated, and it's not like Terry Francona won't do the same
with his own collection of ace relievers.

剛創下22連勝紀錄的印地安人是季後賽大熱門,但擁有鋼鐵牛棚的洋基也不是省油的燈。
所以哪隊比較有優勢? 讓我們一個位置一個位置拆開來看。

So who has the edge? Let's break it down position by position to find
strengths on each side. (Batting numbers are presented with traditional
BA/OBP/SLG and Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+, a park- and
league-adjusted number where 100 is set as "league average" for easy
comparison.)

Catcher
If Cleveland has anything resembling a weakness, it's probably behind the
plate, where Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez (plus a little Francisco Mejia)
combined to hit just .221/.300/.384 (81 wRC+). Gary Sanchez, on the other
hand, has become a superstar, hitting .278/.345/.531, 130 wRC+, 33 homers).
Yes, he's got an issue with passed balls, but he's also a good framer (+9
runs, tied for 10th overall, just behind Perez) with a cannon of an arm.
Advantage: Yankees

如果印地安人有什麼看似弱點的地方,那或許是他們的捕手。
作者說我們家的 Gomes + Perez合計只貢獻了 81 wRC+,
但洋基的 Gary Sanchez 則是有全明星等級的 130 wRC+,

另外他雖然有時會漏球,但手套尾勁挺好,名列前十(只輸我們家Perez一名)
同時有著強肩可以狙殺跑者。

優勢:洋基

(綜合攻守兩端表現,洋基Sanchez擁有巨大的影響力,甚至連漏球的缺點也有顯著的改善
 他比較可惜的是偷打人被禁賽之前打擊手感熱到發燙,但被禁賽之後手感就跟Judge交換了

 但我們印地安人的兩位捕手,對球隊也絕對是加分項,81wRC+看似低於平均不少, 但壘上有
 人時,Gomes擅長捕刀,Perez則是逆境oo,兩人本季合力貢獻了94分打點,不管這能力明年能
 否複製,但對方的投手最好不要掉以輕心。

 而防守端,洋基的狙殺率可以排到全聯盟第五或第六, 但季後賽球隊中狙殺率最好的球隊;
 依序是印地安人,落磯,響尾蛇,然後才是洋基。在雙方都有不少快腿的情況下,壘間的攻防
 應該也是這場比賽的一個看點。

 而手套尾勁以及與投手的搭配上,無論是從數據面還是從我們投手群的表現上,我們家捕手
 都是無可挑剔的,而在球季的最後兩周,Tito也盡可能改變在例行賽投捕固定搭配的模式,
 讓Perez更多的與不同的投手都有搭配到,但無論是誰先發,本壘後方我都很放心! )


First Base
Carlos Santana did basically the same thing in 2017 that he does every year,
which is to say that he showed outstanding on-base skills and strong power,
hitting .259/.363/.455 (117 wRC+) with 23 homers. We're not kidding about the
"same thing he does every year" part, either; for his career, dating back to
2010, Santana's overall line is a nearly identical .249/.365/.445 (123 wRC+).
While Greg Bird has a high level power upside, he also missed most of 2016
and 2017 due to injuries, and hit just .190/.288/.422 (86 wRC+) when he did
play this year.

Advantage: Indians

一壘部分,我們這邊有表現穩定的選球魔人Santana,洋基則是傷癒復出的優質新秀Bird
優勢:印地安人

(這邊的話還是先說洋基, Bird九月近況頗佳,連守備也不只一次大劈腿美技接球,以現在
 這個時間點來說他對洋基即使不是加分,也至少是持平。

但印地安人這邊則是當年我們透過一宗搶案(用Blake從道奇交易)得到的Santana最後一年
合約年的他,本季的走勢有點像皇家的Hosmer,開低走高,七八月熱得發燙,雖然九月中旬有
點小傷冷了幾場,但休養後已經滿血復活,左右開弓的他是我們打線上的重要力量,相信他
無論是為了球隊,還是為了自己的身價,都會在十月拿出百分之兩百的表現,加油! )

Second Base
That this one isn't close -- and it's not meant as a slight to Starlin
Castro, who had a solid enough line of .300/.338/.454 (110 wRC+), though he
slumped down the stretch. It's based entirely on how great Jose Ramirez was
for a second season in a row, sliding back and forth between second and third
base as needed and putting up elite offense (.318/.374/.583, 148 wRC+) while
doing so.

Advantage: Indians

二壘部分:前小熊新秀Castro有個不錯的球季,九月的最後一周也逐漸加溫,但要拿他跟本
季美聯MVP JRamirez來比還是有點差距。

優勢:印地安人

(這邊我要講的就是,雖然JRamirez可以守二壘跟三壘, 但他最舒服的守備位置是二壘,所
 以考量到他是我們狀況最好的打者,也是22連勝中的主力二壘手,Tito不想輕易移動他拐到
 氣也是很合理的,但必要時我們也可以出大絕招把Kipnis移到二壘。 )

Shortstop
While Francisco Lindor obviously gets the edge here, having hit .273/.337/.505
(118 wRC+) with 33 homers and fantastic defense, it's at least worth noting
that Didi Gregorius makes this a conversation. Sir Didi had a pretty great yea
r
of his own, putting up 25 homers (plus a game-tying three run shot in the Wild
Card game) to go with a .287/.318/.478 (107 wRC+) line,as he became the regula
r
Yankees cleanup hitter. That said, he's not Lindor.
No one is.

Advantage: Indians

洋基游擊霸Didi今年很強,但Lindor今年有著一個不可思議的球季。

優勢:印地安人

(其實二游的部分跟捕手給我的感覺有點像, 印地安人都是優勢方, 但洋基的二游對球隊
 也都是加分項目。

 不過Lindor除了球場上攻守兩端不可思議的表現,他交友廣闊以及笑口常開的場外表現不
 但讓更多人認識了Mr.Smile這個綽號, 更讓他以小市場球隊球員的身分進入球衣銷售前十
 笑有出頭天,劉備真的沒有騙人! )


Third Base
Though Ramirez started by far the most games here, and Yandy Diaz was both
the Opening Day third baseman and the primary starter in September, it's
likely to be Giovanny Urshela who gets the call at third, with Ramirez at
second and Diaz not on the roster. Urshela has a reputation as an elite
defender, but his career batting line in parts of two seasons is just
.225/.273/.314 (57 wRC+), so Todd Frazier gets the easy edge here. Frazier's
a pretty good third baseman himself, and he showed both on-base skills and
power after being traded to the Yankees, hitting .222/.365/.423 (114 wRC+)
with New York.

Advantage: Yankees

洋基這邊是好人Todd Frazier,他本季打擊率很低,但上壘率跟長打率還是有不錯的水準,
雖然埋伏在第九棒,但還是不能掉以輕心。印地安人則是守備組 Urshela。

優勢:洋基

(Urshela本季對洋基曾經一場出現兩個五星級的守備,雖然還是個新人,但我認為他已經是
 準金手套了[就是說如果沒有Machado,金手套就可以直接頒給他了。] 季後賽雖然偶爾也
 會出現打擊戰,但總的來說,在王牌對王牌的比賽中,投手戰的機率還是高一點,所以教練
 這邊用守備組我覺得可以。)

Left Field
Though Michael Brantley made the roster, it will likely be as a pinch-hitter,
since he hasn't played the outfield since injuring his ankle back on Aug. 8.
That means left field is likely to be a job share between righty Austin
Jackson (.318/.387/.482, 131 wRC+) and lefty Lonnie Chisenhall
(.288/.360/.521, 129 wRC+), who both had good years. Even though those lines
are both better than Brett Gardner had (.264/.350/.428, 108 wRC+), we're
calling this one a tie, because Gardner's a better defender and baserunner.
He also took nearly 100 more plate appearances than Chisenhall and Jackson
did, combined.
Advantage: Tie

作者認為這邊是平手。

(Austin Jackson是本季我們賭到的小樂透,本季走勢是開高走高,九月狀況更好,雖然他
 比較擅長打左投,但如果吃生蠔手感還沒回來, 他也可以對右投就是了;另外他的防守跟
 跑壘也在水平之上,所以他可能不是單純對左投上場而已。)


Center Field
Expect to see the Yankees use both Aaron Hicks (.266/.372/.475, 127 wRC+) and
Jacoby Ellsbury (.264/.348/.402, 101 wRC+) in center, and that's a pretty
good duo to have. Hicks had a breakout season when healthy, and as the owner
of baseball's strongest outfield arm, got the Wild Card start over Ellsbury
mostly for his defense. Meanwhile, Cleveland lost Bradley Zimmer to a broken
hand on Sept. 10, so it opted for a late-season conversion of long-time
second baseman Jason Kipnis to center. While the high-strikeout profile of
the pitching staff made it a worthwhile risk, he's still got just 11 games of
experience there, and he hit just .232/.291/.414 (82 wRC+) this year anyway.
Advantage: Yankees

洋基這邊有金手套Hicks 跟四月九月打很好的Ellsbury輪換...
印地安人這邊則是推出當初選秀時以中外野守備選入的Kipnis重操舊業。

優勢:洋基

(這邊球隊推出Kipnis有兩個考量,一方面是加強攻擊[而三壘則是加強防守],另一方面則
 是給Kipnis這位伴隨球隊度過重建期的球隊元老一個角色,讓他可以做出貢獻!

 雖然他很多年沒守過中外野了,但畢竟是老本行,球季的最後兩周看的出來他無論是打擊
 還是守備都是漸入佳境,而且Tito也跟他說了放手去打,責任我來扛,我覺得他可以。

 另外我們九月時常常在比賽後段換上兩個金手套等級的守備組,原本以為在40人名單縮回
 25人名單以後看不到 Urshela 跟 Greg Allen了,沒想到最後居然兩個人都入選了,守備
 超強的Allen被認為頗有當年Lofton的風采,當我們在比賽後段取得領先時,他應該會常態
 性的上場接管中外野防區。)

Right Field
Jay Bruce gave Cleveland everything they expected and more after being
acquired from the Mets in August, hitting .248/.331/.477 (111 wRC+) with
seven of his career-high 36 homers after returning to Ohio. But let's be
honest here: this is the Aaron Judge show. Judge erased any memories of his
summer slump with a massive September (.311/.463/.889, 233 wRC+), then
pounded the hardest-hit ball of the Wild Card Game, a 108.5 mph homer off
Jose Berrios. He's a better outfielder than you think, too, and he may just
win the Most Valuable Player award.

Advantage: Yankees

即使 Bruce打出了生涯新高的36轟,但這邊優勢還是要給擊出52轟的Judge。
優勢:洋基

(Bruce 今年狀況不錯, 而且他對印地安人很熟悉也融入很快,雖然他中間曾經因為風災募
 款跟脖子痠痛而影響表現, 但從他加入球隊以後, 球隊勝率一直保持高檔,希望他在季後
 賽可以拿出最好的集中力。)

Designated Hitter
With an all-righty Cleveland rotation, don't expect to see much Matt Holliday
(.231/.316/.432, 98 wRC+) here. Instead, it's more likely that Chase Headley
(.273/.352/.406, 104 wRC+) and Ellsbury will get starts at DH, and while Joe
Girardi can play matchups with that trio, none can measure up to Edwin
Encarnacion (.258/.377/.504, 132 wRC+, 38 homers), who lived up to
expectations in his first season in Cleveland, essentially matching his
career averages (.265/.354/.499, 127 wRC+). He remains one of baseball's most
feared sluggers.

Advantage: Indians

印地安人的EE很不錯,洋基那邊可能會用輪的。
優勢:印地安人

(EE本季在印地安人算是開低走高,一開始可能是因為太冷或是因為怕生還沒融入球隊,所
 以沒法放開來打,但那都沒關係,因為他六八九月徹底熱開了!

 有基迷朋友跟我說他覺得EE今年只是帳面成績好看,關鍵時刻就軟了;但我覺得關鍵時刻
 是在十月,他最好的一面你還沒看到呢!

 而且,退一萬步說,今年的EE再怎樣也比我們去年的主炮 Napoli 給對手的壓力更大!
 Napoli去年更多的貢獻其實是在休息室的無形貢獻,我很感謝他,但我很開心看到今年球
 隊簽下 EE 取代他主砲的位置。)


Starting Pitchers
Over the final two months of the season, Corey Kluber threw 89 innings, and
the numbers are almost unreal: 104 strikeouts, nine walks, 1.42 ERA. And
while it's true that Kluber won't start until Game 2, this isn't just about
him, either. By one measure, this group, including Carlos Carrasco, Trevor
Bauer, and Josh Tomlin, has an argument to be called the best rotation of all
time. Whether or not you buy that isn't the point; the point is that while
the Yankees do have Sonny Gray and Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia isn't what he
once was, and Luis Severino's Wild Card Game implosion leaves some
uncertainty. The Yankees' rotation is good. The Cleveland rotation is great.
Advantage: Indians

洋基的投手評價:good
印地安人的投手評價: great

優勢:印地安人

Relief Pitchers
You saw what happened in the Wild Card Game, right? We called this group
"baseball's scariest unit" back in August, and all they did to beat the Twins
was to offer 26 outs worth of one-run baseball, without even getting to
Dellin Betances. Yes, Andrew Miller remains elite, and yes, the idea of
adding starters Danny Salazar and Mike Clevinger to Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw,
and Tyler Olson means that Cleveland's 'pen is pretty stacked itself -- it's
not hard to see this ALDS as being entirely about two great bullpens. But the
Yankees are specifically built for this, and while it's not a huge edge, it's
an edge. Chad Green, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Aroldis Chapman, Adam
Warren, and yes, Betances, are that good.
Advantage: Yankees

洋基的牛棚評價:great
印地安人的牛棚評價:goooooood

優勢:洋基

(其實球隊兩周前就規劃Clevinger要在季後賽進牛棚,扮演類似去年Miller的角色,也在
 最後兩周盡量幫助他做出調適,同時季末call上來的Olson也不斷通過Tito給他越來越
 重要的各種考驗,成為球隊調度中重要的左投手,再加上季中補進的Smith, 我覺得我們
 的牛棚很好很強壯, 如果去年就有這樣的牛棚,我們可能可以少2~3場敗仗...

 當然季末有些疲憊的Allen跟Shaw降低了我們整體的評價,但總的來說,比起去年過度依賴
 三頭牛,今年重要關頭上場的人選可能多達六個,感覺還不錯! )

那就寫到這邊,大家明天加油!


--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 118.233.85.28
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Indians/M.1507187188.A.3AB.html
推 adjectiveadv: 推goopa大分享~GO!GO!TRIBE!
→ adjectiveadv: goopa大這篇可以讓我分享到FB嗎？
推 adjectiveadv: 希望Perez也能跟去年ALDS一樣carry XD
→ goopa: 沒問題。
推 wnkwnk: 牛棚沒帶ZMcA, Otero, Goody這一點實在讓我蠻不安的（當然
→ wnkwnk: 是因為受限於25人名單）Clevinger跟Salazar放在牛棚能否發
→ wnkwnk: 揮得比前面三人更好是個未知數，再加上季末Allen跟Shaw開
→ wnkwnk: 始放火，更令人擔心
推 fisher0201: ZMcA今年對戰洋基不太好，選Salazar而不是Otero或Good
→ fisher0201: y可能是今年那場先發吃7局12K1責失有加分吧，而Sunshi
→ fisher0201: ne應該是他整年表現好才帶著當備用長中繼
→ goopa: Salazar跟Tomlin也有可能互換角色，都帶著應該是保留彈性。
→ goopa: Clevinger我覺得總教練真的是對他在牛棚的表現寄與厚望，
→ goopa: 有提早演練比較安心一點。
推 fisher0201: 是的，我覺得Tito選這幾個先發可能是為了有替換性多吃
→ fisher0201: 局數，而原本幾位後援就是上來止血加收尾吧！不管如
→ fisher0201: 何，明早加油！
推 LoveWin7: 最重要是打線要能適時發揮
推 imaian: 感謝翻譯 明天加油!!
※ 編輯: goopa (180.176.47.154), 10/06/2017 12:28:15
推 chlin0430: 洋基估計掰了，除非他們能從cookie身上偷到勝利。不然
→ chlin0430: 等第三場Kluber出來就是直落三