[外電] 太空人得到了休士頓版本的摸二哥

[kelpiejo (開啤酒)]

前言：
因為對捕手相關的技術和數據比較有興趣，過去也曾經拙譯過一些跟捕手相關的文章
其中framing算是一個蠻特別滿有趣的話題
當然這只是捕手眾多能力當中的一小部分，對於比賽影響程度有待考量
但是不可否認的，不只在FG這種專業一點的網站
平常轉播時主播提到framing的次數越來越多
所以小弟會翻譯兩篇文章，隨著FG的腳步來檢視最近的兩個小交易
讓大家在休兵季節可以有點討論
因為實在很難用中文定義，所以在此文中，framing都譯為接捕

正文開始

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-get-their-jose-molina/

Sometimes, a transaction is so immediately obvious you don’t have to spend
any time at all trying to work out the rationale behind it. Other times, a
transaction only seems that immediately obvious, because we’re not privy to
all of the relevant information. In each case, though, we get to pretend like
the move in question is immediately obvious, because we can’t know what we
don’t know, and on Wednesday, the Astros made a trade. They got a guy they
like, and they like him because of course they like him.

有時候，一個交易可以一眼就看出來兩隊背後在想什麼，但有時候我們只是「好像」
知道兩隊在想什麼，因為我們對於相關的資訊沒那麼熟。不過不管怎麼樣，我們常常
得裝作這些不知道在搞什麼的交易很好分析，因為不知道的那一面就是我們不可能會
知道啊。禮拜三，太空人做了個交易，他們得到了一個他們喜歡的球員，因為，呃，
他們喜歡他。

The Astros got one guy for two guys, giving up catcher Carlos Perez and
pitcher Nick Tropeano. Perez might take over as the Angels’ backup, and
Tropeano might manage to crack the Angels’ starting rotation. But the guy
the Astros added is Hank Conger, and though Conger’s is by no means any sort
of household name, you could say the Astros just got their Jose Molina. Have
I mentioned lately that the Astros employ Mike Fast? Do I even need to?

太空人換走了捕手Carlos Perez和投手Nick Tropeano。Perez可能會成為天使的替補
捕手，Tropeano有機會挑戰輪值。太空人得到了Hank Conger，雖然不是什麼家喻戶曉
的名字，但你可以說他們得到了他們心中的Jose Molina。我提到了太空人制服組裡有
一個叫Mike Fast的人嗎？我需要特別提到他嗎？

（譯註：關於Mike Fast，在拙譯有提到過，請在MLB板搜尋我ID）

On the surface, it’s a C-list transaction. Few know Perez, few know
Tropeano, and Conger’s never played 100 games in a season. I can’t remember
the last time I watched Sportscenter, but this isn’t the kind of headline I
imagine they’re likely to discuss, because it’s hardly even a headline for
baseball-specific programming. Conger owns a career 84 wRC+. That comes with
a .294 OBP, and he’s at 1.6 career WAR. He’s thrown out 22% of attempted
base-stealers.

表面看來，這是個C咖交易。沒什麼人認識太空人丟的這兩個球員，Conger也從來沒有
單季出場破百過。這種交易不可能被世界體育中心討論，因為就算是棒球專門的節目也
不會拿這種交易當頭條。Conger的生涯wRC+是84，上壘率兩成九四，WAR 1.6，阻殺率
只有兩成二。

Conger’s pretty cheap and under control through 2017, so that’s something.
He joins what’s become a crowded backstop situation in Houston, with Jason
Castro, Carlos Corporan, and Max Stassi. It seems pretty apparent the Astros
are going to make a change between now and the start of next year, so what
they have for the moment is flexibility. This move probably wasn’t about the
next move. This move was probably about getting Conger, because I haven’t
yet mentioned his strength.

Conger合約頗便宜，球隊可以控制他到2017年，這還不錯。他加入了之後，太空人的捕
手陣容有點擠。這球隊陣容在明年球季前勢必還有一些變動，所以現在有點彈性是好的
。這個交易大概不是為了其他交易而做的，而是純粹為了要得到Conger，讓我來說說他
的強項在哪裡吧。

It’s pitch-framing, naturally. Or pitch-receiving, or basic catching, or
whatever you want to call it. Fast’s research brought framing into the
spotlight, and we’ve heard before about how the Astros organization works on
framing drills to make their own guys better. Until this week, Conger wasn’t
one of their own guys, but it doesn’t get much better than him, in terms of
catching the ball in a quiet and artful way. And that’s why I feel like this
move is so obvious. The Astros are likely to appreciate the skill more than
the Angels have.

當然就是接補啦。Mike Fast的研究讓大家注意到接補，而我們也知道太空人是怎麼樣在
這部分加強他們對捕手的訓練。Conger這禮拜才成為太空人的一員，但是要說起把球優美
地接成好球，Conger比起太空人捕手群可是毫不遜色。這也是為什麼我認為這個交易一看
就知道太空人的想法，因為他們似乎是比天使更重視接補這個能力。

How good a receiver is Conger? We can go the more simple way, or we can go
the more complicated way. The answers are the same: he’s outstanding. Let’s
go to StatCorner first. In 2013, out of regular and semi-regular catchers,
Conger ranked third in extra strikes per game. In 2014, he ranked first,
ahead of Molina, Christian Vazquez, and Rene Rivera. No one in baseball has
been better at preserving strikes; almost no one has been better at gaining
additional strikes.

Conger有多會接捕？不管用淺顯的方式或是複雜的方式解釋，答案都是，他很屌。我們先
來看StatCorner的資料，2013年裡，在比較有機會上場的捕手中，Conger在「每場比賽多
接出來的好球」這個項目排第三。2014他變成第一名了，比摸小弟、紅襪的Vazquez或是
教士的Rivera都還要強。沒有人比他更會確保好球被判成好球，沒有什麼人比他更會把壞
球接成好球。

（StatCorner連結：http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php）

For the more complicated way, we turn to Baseball Prospectus. Their framing
numbers are based on more intricate formulas, controlling for a great number
of variables. In 2013, out of regular and semi-regular catchers, Conger
ranked tied for fifth in framing runs expressed as a rate stat. He was third
in extra strikes per game. In 2014, Conger ranked first in runs as a rate
stat, and second in extra strikes per game. Let’s combine the last two
years. Let’s set a minimum of 5,000 so-called “framing opportunities”. We’
re left with a pool of 56 catchers. Within that pool, Conger ranks second in
extra strikes per game, and second in framing runs per game. The only catcher
better: Jose Molina, who wasn’t better in the season that just ended.

要更複雜點來看，就看Baseball Prospectus吧。他們的接捕數據的公式更複雜，變數也
更多。2013年，在比較有機會出場的捕手裡，把接補守下來的得分換算成比例，他並列
第五；2014年，平均每場接成好球的壞球這個項目，他排第一。把13和14球季加總，然
後把至少有5000個「接捕機會」的捕手抓出來，還有56個選手，這些人當中，Conger在
平均每場接成好球的壞球和平均每場接捕守下來的分數這兩個項目當中，都位居第二，
只輸給Jose Molina，而且Conger在2014球季表現得還比摸二哥好。

Take the BP numbers at face value, and the last two years, Conger’s framing
has been worth more than 30 runs alone. People quibble with the magnitudes of
these things, and people debate over how to distribute responsibility, but it
makes sense that the Astros would be believers in this, just as the Rays have
been and just as the Brewers obviously are. The Astros, presumably, see
Conger as an elite-level framer, and though he doesn’t have too many other
skills, Nelson Cruz doesn’t have too many other skills aside from clobbering
dingers, and the dingers make him valuable. It doesn’t matter how a guy’s
good, as long as he’s good. The Astros identified and got a good player,
according to the ways they evaluate players.

根據BP的數據，Conger在過去兩年的接捕能力就有三十分的價值。這種數據的重要性和
怎麼去界定這些分數的責任當然很引戰，但是太空人就是信這一套，就和這幾年的光芒
和釀酒人一樣。合理推測，太空人把Conger視為一個優秀的接捕捕手，不管他其他能力
如何。就好像Nelson Cruz也特別擅長把球幹出場外啊，他其他的能力也不怎樣，但尻
全壘打讓他很有價值。一個好球員是好在什麼地方，不是特別重要。太空人用他們的標
準，發現他們的千里馬，然後得到了他。

Here’s something fun. BP breaks down framing data by pitching battery.
Conger, last year, split time on the Angels with Chris Iannetta. There were
eight guys they each caught for at least 100 plate appearances. Let’s see
how they did with each catcher:

有趣的來了。BP的接捕數據可以用投手來分類。2013球季，Conger和Iannetta分擔了捕
手的工作，有八個投手他們都接了100個打席以上，讓我們來看看這些投手和不同的捕手
搭配時表現有什麼差別。

Pitcher         Conger  Conger, Iannetta  Iannetta  誰勝
                機會    +strike  機會     +strike
Jered Weaver     856     51      1062     17        Conger
Hector Santiago  798     -2      481      -15       Conger
C.J. Wilson      832     26      1102     8         Conger
Garrett Richards 521     15      931      -25       Conger
Matt Shoemaker   461     9       656      -2        Conger
Tyler Skaggs     254     3       632      -9        Conger
Kevin Jepsen     233     0       323      5         Iannetta
Joe Smith        262     19      330      4         Conger

（表有點醜建議大家直接看原文）

Of the eight, seven got better strikes zones pitching to Conger, and the one
exception — Jepsen — had some pretty small sample sizes. Conger was great
on his own team; Conger was great.

這八個投手當中，有七個的好球帶在Conger的幫助之下看起來好一點。Jepsen是唯一的
例外，他的樣本數也是最少的。只跟隊友比較，Conger在接補部分更能幫助球隊。

Using data from Baseball Savant, let’s look at a .gif of different 2014
strike zones. I selected three catchers: Conger, Devin Mesoraco, and Jarrod
Saltalamacchia. Conger was a good receiver, Mesoraco was an average receiver,
and Saltalamacchia was a bad receiver, at least by the measurements we have.
The differences might be a little subtle, but pay attention to the edges:

用Baseball Savant的資料，可以做出這個2014球季幾個不同好球帶的gif圖片。我選了
三個捕手，Conger、Mesoraco和Salty。Conger擅長接補，Mesoraco普普通通，Salty的
接補並不好，至少就我們的數據是這樣。用圖來看，這三個人的差別可能沒那麼明顯，
但請注意邊邊角角的地方。

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/catcherszones.gif

Conger’s pretty strong everywhere, and in particular low in and beyond the
zone. He’s able to steal high strikes, as well, and he’s excellent on the
horizontal edges. Four .gifs, now, of called strikes in different areas. By
selecting strikes, I essentially selected for Conger presumably showing good
technique, but despite that bias, you can admire his technique anyway.

Conger的接補挺廣角的。以下四個gif是他在好球帶不同方向所接出來的好球。

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/CongerCatch-1.gif

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/CongerCatch-2.gif

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/CongerCatch-3.gif

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/CongerCatch-4.gif

You can teach catchers to get better, and the Astros have taught Jason Castro
to get better, but everyone has an ability ceiling. Conger’s is higher than
most, because he’s able to remain just so incredibly quiet and confident.
The one I like most above is the second one. Conger had a target down, around
the knees. He caught the pitch above Dustin Ackley‘s belt, but from watching
the .gif, you’d never really guess that the pitcher missed to the opposite
part of the zone. Conger read how Wade LeBlanc was likely to miss, so he
prepared before the ball had even arrived. The target was missed by something
like two feet, and Conger couldn’t possibly have received it any better.

接捕是可以教的，太空人就讓Jason Castro進步了。不過每個人在這方面都有天花板，
Conger的天花板就是比別人高，因為他有辦法這樣不著痕跡地又充滿自信地接捕。我最
喜歡第二個圖，他一開始設定的位置比較低，最後接到的位置比Ackley的皮帶還高，不
過從圖片看不出來投手投得其實離捕手要的地方差很多。Conger判斷出LeBlanc大概會
投得多歪，才能在球進壘之前就做好準備。這一球最後進壘的地方跟Conger要的地方距
離大概兩英呎，Conger這球接得實在很棒。

If you believe in the value of pitch-framing, you believe in the value of
Hank Conger. If any team in baseball believes in the value of pitch-framing,
it stands to reason it would be the Astros. So they picked up a 26-year-old
with three more years of team control, and his strength isn’t the kind of
thing that gets rewarded handsomely through arbitration. So now the team has
options, as they figure out how to proceed with Jason Castro, and if Conger
remains as a backup, he’ll be okay with that. If he gets an expanded role, he
’ll be okay with that, and while Conger’s framing compares well to Jose
Molina’s, Conger’s also younger, with greater offensive potential. Conger
seems like a pretty good catcher overall, because of one particularly strong
strength, and it’s not often you can get a pretty good catcher for a worse
catcher and a back-of-the-rotation project.

如果相信接捕的價值，就會相信Conger的價值。太空人就是這樣的球隊，所以他們挑了
一個他們還可以控制三年的選手，而且他優秀的接補能力也不會讓他在薪資仲裁有什麼
優勢。總之現在太空人有更大的彈性，他們可以思考要怎麼處置Jason Castro。如果要
Conger繼續當替補，他也OK，如果要給Conger更大的責任，那他也可以勝任。Conger的
接捕堪可比擬Jose Molina，而且打擊潛力比摸二哥還高，整體來說似乎是不錯的捕手。
要用一個沒那麼好的捕手和一個輪值後段的未完成品來換來一個好捕手不是很容易啊。

Not that this is a blockbuster or a rip-off or anything. The Angels might be
fond of Perez. Chris Iannetta just ran a 126 wRC+. Nick Tropeano has had
success in Triple-A, and everyone likes his changeup. Pitchers with
underwhelming fastballs but good changeups can end up underrated prospects,
and Tropeano could start for the Angels for the league minimum. That’s
valuable, especially for a team with so much big money already committed. The
Angels are looking to do certain things on a budget.

也不是說太空人搶很大啦。Iannetta的wRC+只有126的情況下，天使或許會喜歡Perez。
Tropeano在AAA表現不錯，而且變速球人見人愛。速球普普但是變速球不錯的投手有可能
是被低估的新秀，Tropeano有機會加入MLB輪值，而且只要最低薪。以天使的薪資結構已
經有點卡住的情況之下，這樣合乎預算的投資是有其價值的。

So from the Angels’ side, you can understand it well enough. From the Astros
’ side, you can understand it even more. Because of Mike Fast, we all got to
learn about the amazing hidden value of Jose Molina. The Astros just picked
up their own younger version.

所以站在天使的角度，不難理解這個交易；站在太空人的角度就更清楚了。因為有Mike
Fast的研究，我們都了解了Jose Molina的隱藏價值，而現在太空人得到了他們專屬的，
而且更年輕版本的摸二哥了。

--
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※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1415985970.A.D13.html
推 kaikai40480: 推
※ 編輯: kelpiejo (61.223.65.18), 11/15/2014 01:38:30
推 vince4687: 原來接補也有天花板....開眼界了
推 Eddward: 看了講解跟gif圖後 好像有點厲害
推 albertlaw: 還不知道原來崔賢這麼猛  感謝詳細翻譯
推 ZweTuB: 蠻有趣的內容
推 jardon: 推 有趣
推 WadeMiley: 推
推 hakk: 感謝分享！MLB太厲害了，連每場比賽多接出來的好球這種統計
→ hakk: 都有
推 blacklittle: 他的經典GIF http://i.imgur.com/tSXhzc2.gif lol
推 xw668: 好文大推
推 kenny781558: 學到新東西了 原來Conger那麼優秀(本身是天使迷)
推 PPStream: 推
推 josephh: 這...有點透視數據的感覺...這是欺騙主審的能力++
推 maxspeed150: 接球是種能力 所以當然有人好有人差 很意外嗎
推 Atropos0723: 如果裁判都帶上能即時顯示K-zone的眼鏡來判決，那麼
→ Atropos0723: 這項能力大概就會消失了。
推 Martie: 好翻譯推推
推 notmuchmoney: 把好球判成好球 也讓壞球判成好球 這不是投手的功勞
→ notmuchmoney: 嗎?
推 Lucroy: 看了gif,還真是不著痕跡
推 DLCSEA: 推好文
推 cacac: blacklittle xD
推 Zamned: 這種能力在接二縫線速球尤其重要
※ testu:轉錄至看板 Astros                                         11/19 00:23
※ csy1911:轉錄至看板 Rays                                         12/06 22:50