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Jim Callis, John Sickles, BP, FG等人做新秀的Mock Draft
15人選4輪 蠻有趣的
Round One
1.1) Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“I was tempted by Kris Bryant's power, but Buxton's all-around brilliance
made this a fairly easy choice. If he reaches his ceiling, his ability to hit
for a high average with 20-homer pop and plenty of runs, RBIs, and steals
could make him the most valuable player in fantasy baseball once he hits his
prime. I think his injuries have been more of a fluke than an indication that
he'll have trouble staying in the lineup.”
1.2) Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs (Nick Shlain, Baseball Prospectus)
“After Buxton came off the board, the decision between the two was made for
me, but Bryant has an argument for the top spot. He showed off tremendous
power in the minor leagues last year, hitting 43 home runs across two levels
in 138 games, and should spend a good portion of this year in the majors.”
1.3) Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros (Al Melchior, CBS)
“Nick spared me a dilemma when he selected Kris Bryant with the second pick,
but I was leaning towards taking Correa, even if somehow Bryant was still on
the board. While I generally prefer players who are closer to the majors
(as we have a better indication of how their numbers might translate), it
would have been too hard to pass up on the potential combination of power,
speed and good contact skills for someone who has a chance to stick at
shortstop. Even though Jed Lowrie's arrival in Houston may mean a 2016 debut
for Correa, he should be worth the wait.”
1.4) Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs (Craig Glaser, BSports)
“I also grabbed Soler in last year's mock draft (although I got him in the
fourth round instead of with the fourth pick.) There were four guys who I
strongly considered with this pick, and while some of the others may have
more positional value, or more fantasy-relevant speed, I think Soler is the
safest of the bunch. He had a very successful stint in the majors last year,
and Steamer already has him contributing some pretty nice fantasy stats in
the upcoming season, hitting 23 HRs with a batting average that won't hurt
you and even throwing in a couple of steals for good measure. Soler is
actually a couple of months younger than future teammate Kris Bryant and the
combination of his high floor and growth potential gives him the slight edge
here.”
1.5) Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“I can't take a pitcher this early, so this boils down to a trio of hitters
for me: Joey Gallo, Addison Russell, or Corey Seager. Positional value makes
the latter two more attractive. As for which one to pick, Seager is a few
months younger than Russell and appears less prone to injury. On the other hand,
Russell is more likely to be able to handle shortstop long-term than Seager is.
It is a tough call and I don't feel I can go wrong either way, but I will go
with Seager due to being slightly younger and slightly out-hitting Russell in
Double-A.”
1.6) Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs (Brent Hershey, BaseballHQ)
“Even though we are not required to field an actual team in this exercise,
obviously shortstops that can do everything are highly valuable. In the Cubs
infield orgy of offense, Russell seems like the one most likely to ultimately
claim the position. Love his patience, contact ability, power, and if his
legs are healthy, he could be a five-category contributor. Worst-case scenario,
he ends up at second base, where his broad base of skills remain valuable. I
briefly considered Lucas Giolito and Joey Gallo for this slot, but for me,
Russell's advanced profile gives him a slight edge.”
1.7) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets (James Anderson, Rotowire)
“I would prefer to be in Bret's spot, as there are a couple of guys I value
similarly here, but Syndergaard offers an ideal combination of proximity,
safety and upside to headline my minor-league roster. His second half
numbers—3.54 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings—were particularly
impressive for a 21-year-old in the Pacific Coast League, and at 6-foot-6,
240 pounds, he is equipped to handle 200-plus inning seasons. The Mets might
have the most starting pitching depth in the majors, but that won't stop
Syndergaard from forcing his way into the rotation this season.”
1.8) Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“It was going to be a very tough call between Sano and Syndergaard here, but
I’m glad I didn’t have to make it (though I didn’t have a choice when it
came time to do my rankings). Despite missing all of the 2014, Sano still
boasts the same potential 40-homer power and has an outside chance to make
his major league debut later in the season. The average will always be a
struggle, but this isn’t a Mark Reynolds situation—he does have the talent
to hit around .260 if the hit tool progresses to its current capacity. Gallo
is the current power darling of the minors, and while he would have been a
reasonable pick, Sano is the better fantasy prospect.”
1.9) Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers (Chris Crawford, Draft to the Show/ESPN)
“The risks with Gallo are obvious: he's never going to be much more than
a .240 hitter at the big league level because of his contact issues, and his
value drops somewhat precipitously if he does have to move across the
diamond. With that being said, few—if any—prospects can match his raw or
in-game power, and his approach at the plate took a major step forward in 2014.
A corner infielder who can get on base at an average rate and give you 35
plus homer seasons is a valuable commodity, even if he's not likely to help
you with batting average or stolen bases.”
1.10) J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“My normal tendency in dynasty leagues is to get players that are closer to
the big leagues. I want as much data against good competition as I can get,
and I like solid floors. I don't want to waste a ton of roster spots on
lottery tickets. But this one I can't resist. Dude can't even drink beer
legally yet and he's taking walks, making contact, hitting for a bit of
power, and flashing the glove at shortstop. As the 19-year-old fills out, I
like him to approach league-average power in the bigs, with some speed. And I
don't doubt Crawford's ability to stick at the position, as he's made some
improvements in the last year-plus and is a good athlete. He's ready for
Double-A, his team needs a shortstop, and I think he could play in the big
leagues in 2016, too. So I'm not too far from my comfort zone.“
1.11) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“Not gonna overthink this. Yes, there's plenty of risk here. There's also
more fantasy upside than any other pitcher in the minors can bring, and we're
probably only two seasons away from Giolito seeing the majors. Does the TJ on
record make me nervous? Yes. Am I thrilled that he's yet to throw 100-plus
professional innings in one season? No. But we're talking about a potential
fantasy monster, the type of pitcher who could annually finish as a top-five
starter in his prime. I want impact potential within a two-year timetable in
the first round of a draft like this, and Giolito provides that in spades. I
also considered Garin Cecchini <3.“
1.12) Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
"Pederson enjoyed one of the better seasons in minor league history in 2014,
as the 22-year-old was named MVP of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League after
leading the league in home runs (33), OPS (1.017), on-base percentage (.435),
runs scored (106), walks (100) and total bases (259). He also became the first
Pacific Coast League player to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in a season
since 1934. While he struggled with the Dodgers as a September call-up,
Pederson’s allure from a fantasy perspective is obvious as a potential
five-category contributor. That said, I don’t expect him to hit for average
as he has in the minor leagues; but it also shouldn’t be unexpectedly low.
Regardless, I think he’s a 20/20 guy as a near-everyday player and could
achieve such status next season as a rookie."
1.13) Rusney Castillo, OF, Boston Red Sox (D.J. Short, Rotoworld)
“Castillo is already 27, so I was a little hesitant about taking him here
initially. There's also still a bit of an unknown quantity factor with him.
Ultimately, I couldn't pass up on the upside. Castillo was known for his
speed in Cuba and has gotten stronger since, so there's some intriguing power
potential as well. He's aggressive at the plate, but shouldn't hurt in batting
average either. Admittedly, I wouldn't feel nearly as secure about this if I
didn't see his brief sneak preview last September, but I think he's capable
of 15-plus homers and 20-plus stolen bases right away.”
1.14) Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“While I'm not particularly thrilled about grabbing an arm in the first round,
such are the perils of picking 14th overall. While I considered Archie Bradley
for his immediacy/upside combination, I was ultimately swayed toward Urias.
There's essentially nothing negative on his resume aside from a lack of
innings, and while that will affect his impact early on, it's something he
should grow into without a problem. He should be able to rack up strikeouts
by the bushel, even if there's some attrition as he pushes towards throwing
deeper into games. He could reach the majors as soon as next year, although
again, that impact will be muted by a lack of overall innings. Even without
reaching the majors quickly, Urias is one of the top talents in the minors
and his fantasy stock will continue to trend upwards as he tears through
higher levels. I think he can be a SP1 in fantasy, even if he falls short of
ace status in the majors.”
1.15) David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“The Rockies can't decide whether to rebuild or not, but it will happen soon
enough. Their farm is stocked with solid prospects and the top hitting
prospect is outfielder David Dahl. He possesses the power and speed combo
that all fantasy owners drool over. The soon-to-be 21-year-old will start the
year at High-A with a promotion to Double-A in the cards if he can master
High-A like he did Low-A. The fact that he will play half of his games at
Coors Field made my decision that much easier.”
Round Two
2.16) Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“The Pirates outfield is pretty much set for the next 4-5 years, but Meadows
could make the Pirates front office think twice when approached about dealing
one of their three excellent outfielders in a few years. Meadows' first full
season in pro ball was cut short due to injury. When healthy, Meadows showed
a solid power and an excellent eye at the plate. He has the tools to make a
big jump in prospect rankings by midseason.”
2.17) Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians (Craig Goldstein, Baseball
Prospectus)
“Better in real life than he is in fantasy, I couldn't pass up the opportunity
to snag Lindor here in the second round. He should provide value as soon as
2015, and while he's a special, instinctual defender, he's overlooked at the
plate because of it. While the power has yet to show itself fully in the
minors, he's not an empty threat at the plate, with 10-12 home runs as an
attainable goal, possibly providing more in a peak season. He should be able
to hit for average, and beyond home runs, he makes hard contact that should
result in plenty of doubles. His instincts help his speed play up on the
basepaths and he should be able to contribute 20 stolen bases regularly. I
know it's not the sexiest offensive profile, but a potential five-category
contributor who can go 10/20 from shortstop in relatively short order? I'll
take it.”
2.18) Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox (D.J. Short, Rotoworld)
“I wanted to wait on a pitcher at this point in the draft, so I decided to
take arguably the best catching prospect in the game. A first-round pick from
2011, Swihart made some nice strides offensively last season by batting .300
with 12 home runs and an .840 OPS across 92 games with Double-A Portland. The
switch-hitting backstop scuffled a bit after moving up to Triple-A, but it
was a small sample and doesn't diminish what he accomplished overall. Swihart
will begin his age 23-year-old season in the minors, but he could make his
major league debut later this year and push Christian Vazquez for the
starting job before long. Without getting into comps, I see someone who could
hit in the .270-280 range with 15-plus homers annually while playing solid
defense behind the plate. That's a very valuable player in real life and
fantasy.”
2.19) Yasmany Tomas, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
"There were countless guys I considered with for my second pick, but I
ultimately went with Tomas knowing that he and Rusney Castillo would probably
come off the board in short order. Honestly, I don’t know anything more
about the Cuban slugger than the next guy; but if the Diamondbacks were
willing to drop over $68 million on him, then I’m willing to gamble on him
with this pick. He’ll be given a chance to play third base, but Tomas is
better suited for a corner outfield position. His bat, meanwhile, profiles at
any corner spot, as he’s a power-oriented offensive player with an uppercut
swing and aggressive approach."
2.20) Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“Winding up with two pitchers for my first two picks is terrifying, but if
you have to bet on two arms, these are two pretty stellar choices. Bradley's
2014 was disappointing, obviously, and his command will need to take a step
up before he's truly a no. 1 or 2 fantasy starter. Even if that doesn't
happen for a few years, he should reach the majors in 2015, and while he's
learning how to be around the plate more often he can still rack up strikeouts
with a low ERA. Pairing him with Giolito, who's a few years away but somehow
has even more upside, could win me a lot of strikeout crowns.”
2.21) Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“I'd like to wait on pitching, too, but there were a few factors with
Carlos Rodon that made me grab for the South Sider. First, he's close. He'll
get big-league time this year, whether it’s in the ‘pen or the rotation,
and I'd rather not wait three years to find out if my pitcher's a bust.
Secondly, the velocity on the fastball and the bite on the slider are very
compelling. Personally, I think the change will be enough to make the package
work, and I'm willing to blame the poor minor league walk rates on the
mechanical changes he was attempting to make. His college history doesn't
suggest to me that he'll flame out due poor command. I like Chicago's history
with developing pitchers, and I love Rodon's stuff.”
2.22) Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Chris Crawford, Draft to the
Show/ESPN)
“There's only one pitching prospect I think has better swing-and-miss stuff
than Glasnow, and that's Carlos Rodon. Since Eno stole him from me, I'll
"settle" for the next best thing. I have some concerns about the control, but
with a 70-grade fastball and curveball that seemingly jumps up a grade every
year, I believe Glasnow is a potential no. 1 starter who will post low ERAs
and give you plenty of strikeouts, as well.”
2.23) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“At this point, I’m just considering taking all of the Tommy John recoverees
and naming my team ‘The TJ House’. The fact that Bundy went behind Rodon
(who I like a lot) and Glasnow (who scares the bejesus out of me) speaks to
how overlooked Bundy is after a year off and a couple of months of erratic
performance. The upside is still that of an SP1, even with the ballpark and
division working against him—and I like his chances of working his way into
that rotation this year. After all, it may be a crowded rotation, but if
Bundy is right, there’s no one standing in his way.”
2.24) Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers (James Anderson, Rotowire)
“Last season Mazara started to live up to the potential the Rangers were
betting on when they gave him that record-breaking signing bonus out of the
Dominican as a 16-year-old in 2012. An .840 OPS with 22 homers between Low-A
and Double-A as a 19-year-old should make owners in even the shallowest
dynasty leagues start to pay attention. Mazara’s size and raw power make him
a prototypical cleanup-hitting right fielder, and it doesn't take much
imagination to see him posting Jay Bruce-esque fantasy numbers by the end of
the decade. It took him two cracks to master Low-A, so he could spend most of
2015 at Double-A, but a 2016 debut in Arlington seems reasonable.”
2.25) Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays (Brent Hershey, BaseballHQ)
“Norris probably doesn't have MLB-ace potential, which I think I'd normally
look for in the middle of round two (if I ever did these types of drafts
before, which I haven't). But as a lefty with three plus pitches (fastball,
slider, change) and an average fourth (curveball), it's the strikeouts I'm
chasing. Across four levels in 2014, Norris K'd 176 in 132 innings, and while
that rate will decrease at the big-league level, he still has the chance to
be a 200-plus strikeout guy at maturity. And if his control would take a step
forward at some point, he might even be a fringy no. 1 starter.”
2.26) Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland Athletics (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“I went with Corey Seager over Addison Russell in the first round despite
Russell's positional premium. That kept my mind on high-ceiling shortstops,
and one of the best is Franklin Barreto, recently traded from the Blue Jays
to the Athletics. He's a long way off at age 18 with no full-season experience
under his belt, but in an assumed dynasty "build the best farm system you
can" format there are few shortstops with as much upside. He hit .311/.384/.481
with 29 steals in the Northwest League against older competition. His defense
needs polish but the tools to remain at shortstop are there and the bat looks
very strong at this point.”
2.27) Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland Indians (Craig Glaser, BSports)
“After going with an MLB player in round 1 I reversed course to grab Clint
Frazier here. Frazier went at the very start of the second round in this d
raft last year, before ever playing full season ball and his first full
season showed us a little more about his game. He put up some interesting
numbers in A-ball, cracking double digits in HRs, SBs, and walk rate. I'll be
looking for him to cut the strikeouts and increase the power, but I'm happy
to grab a guy with his kind of upside here.”
2.28) Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Al Melchior, CBS)
“While one can't put too much stock in an Arizona Fall League stat line --
especially for a hitter -- Jesse Winker's .338/.440/.559 slash line was
highly reassuring. Coming off a wrist injury and a subpar 21-game stint in
the Southern League, it was good to see that Winker could still mash. A
strong power showing in the Midwest League in 2013 raises hope that his 13 h
omers in 53 Cal League games weren't just a park factor mirage, and his
ability to draw walks has been apparent at every level. All that may stand
between Winker and the starting left field job in Cincinnati is Marlon Byrd,
and he could be traded at the July 31 deadline or at least potentially become
a free agent next offseason.”
2.29) Jonathan Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies (Nick Shlain, Baseball Prospectus)
“While taking a Rockies pitcher is a bit of a drag because of Coors Field,
and Gray's results in the minors weren't fantastic last year, I'm happy to
get a pitcher with his stuff at this point in the draft. He still has a
fastball that touches the upper-90s and one of the best sliders in the
minors. If he can put it all together, even in that park, he'll rack up
enough strikeouts to be worth it.“
2.30) Dalton Pompey, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“Steals are always hard to find, and with his on-base ability and plus
speed, he should delivery plenty of them. He also should hit for average and
as anyone who has seen his second-deck homer off Felix Hernandez knows, he
has some pop, too. Playing in Toronto will help in that regard, too. I see
Pompey as a guy who can contribute in all five hitting categories.”
Round Three
3.31) Jose Peraza, 2B, Atlanta Braves (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“Keep the steals coming, and give them to me at a premium position. He's
capable of playing shortstop, though that probably won't happen as long as
Andrelton Simmons is Atlanta. Wherever Peraza plays, he's a threat to deliver
50-plus steals, hit for a high average and score plenty of runs. All of the
elite pitching prospects are gone, and while there are some interesting arms
out there, they're also more volatile than the best bats still available.
I'll wait before grabbing some pitchers.”
3.32) Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (Nick Shlain, Baseball Prospectus)
“Much like my second-round pick, Jon Gray, Stephenson has swing-and-miss
stuff and is destined to pitch in a hitter-friendly ballpark. His 4.74 ERA
for the season at Double-A last year showed he is an unfinished product, but
he still struck out 140 batters with a 23 percent strikeout rate. He needs to
improve his control in order to take the next step, but I’ll take that chance
in the third round.”
3.33) Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros (Al Melchior, CBS)
“There were several pitchers I considered for my Round 3 pick, but ultimately,
I went with Mark Appel on the basis of the strength of his recent performances.
Instead of seeing his mystifyingly-bad Cal League performance as a red flag,
I'm impressed with how well he rebounded, both in the Texas League and
Arizona Fall League, Giving him a mulligan on his stint in Lancaster, a high
whiff rate in the Texas League speaks to his strikeout potential, while he
has kept walks and flyballs at a reasonable level at each minor league stop.”
3.34) Raul Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals (Craig Glaser, BSports)
“After taking Clint Frazier with my second-round pick, I'll continue with
the young player with upside theme in Round 3. We've already had a number of
shortstops selected and Mondesi seems like a worthwhile gamble among those
who are left. He had a rough season in High-A ball in 2014, batting only .211
owing to a lot of strikeouts and a BABIP of only .274. That being said he
flashed some power and stole 17 bases while only being caught four times. He
was also about five years younger than the average age of players in the
league so he has plenty of time to work on his weaknesses and maximize his
considerable skill set.”
3.35) Kyle Schwarber, C/OF, Chicago Cubs (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“Schwarber had an outstanding professional debut coming out of the 2014 draft,
the Indiana University product hitting .302/.393/.560 in the difficult Florida
State League. His combination of power, bat speed, and strike-zone judgment
should get him to the cusp of the majors very quickly, the main thing holding
him back being questions about his position. Even if he can't catch in the
long run he offers more than enough hitting to hold a job at a corner
outfield spot or first base. With both Schwarber and Corey Seager on board,
my farm roster now has two of the top left-handed hitting prospects in all of
the minor leagues, plus a premium shortstop prospect in Franklin Barreto.
I'll worry about pitching later.”
3.36) Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees (Brent Hershey, BaseballHQ)
“Judge is a big man (6-7, 230), but has the athleticism to make it all work.
He continually hits the ball hard, whether singles, extra-base hits, or outs,
and of course, with arms extended, he has considerable home-run power. He
does need to watch his strikeout rate, which increased after his mid-season
jump to High-A, and has shown some trouble with breaking stuff. But he's a
patient hitter, too; pitch-recognition skills and a disciplined approach
resulted in solid walk rates in his first full pro season. In an era short on
right-handed power, Judge, who likely will start at Double-A in 2015, makes a
nice power upside play on any dynasty roster.”
3.37) Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox (James Anderson, Rotowire)
“The knocks on Anderson are pretty evident, but so is the upside. He walked
just seven times in 345 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A last
year, and there is a strong likelihood that he eventually moves off of
shortstop. However, it’s hard to rip a guy's approach when he is raking like
Anderson was last season. He was able to cut down his K-rate to a manageable
22.7 percent at High-A, so I don’t see the approach being a debilitating
problem going forward. The potential here is immense, as he could go 20/30
with a lot of doubles and triples, and there is room to dream on even a
little more pop, given his eventual home ballpark. I wanted a high-end
shortstop for my farm system, and Anderson was, in my estimation, easily the
best guy left with a sliver of hope to stick there. Even if he moves to
center field, he could do enough across the board to be a top-50 fantasy
player in his prime.”
3.38) Andrew Heaney, LHP, Los Angeles Angels (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“With Schwarber and Anderson going within the three picks ahead of me, I
nearly threw both John and James out of the mock. But once I gathered my
composure (I promise, I’m not rash), I grabbed the highest ranked player on
my board, and one who should contribute plenty in 2015. Heaney had an eventful
offseason, being dealt twice, but I still believe he gets to his strong
number three ceiling in relatively short order, and the park in Los Angeles
will help him suppress homers quite nicely.
3.39) Josh Bell, OF/1B, Pittsburgh Pirates (Chris Crawford, Draft to the Show/ESPN)
“I only have two real concerns with Bell: Where is he going to play, and
when is he going to play? Those are obviously important factors, but I think
the bat plays anywhere, and he's going to be worth the wait. He's going to hit
for power and average, and he's a sneaky fast runner who can steal you a
handful of bases. Even if he's forced to move to first base, Bell's offensive
upside is just too great to let him pass me by in the third round.”
3.40) Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“Power with decent contact rates is my catnip. As the game's batting average
tanks in the face of strikeouts, it's okay for major league teams to reach
for the high-K low-BA sluggers—but in fantasy, batting average is still an
important category. Franco's bat control and bat speed have combined for good
contact rates in the minor leagues, and I think very soon he'll pair those
with good power in Philadelphia. His big league situation is conducive for
the power and the playing time (it's not like Cody Asche's glove is going to
keep Franco from playing third)—and he's close.”
3.41) Nick Williams, OF, Texas Rangers (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“One of my favorite prospects in all the minors, Williams can flat out hit.
I fell in love with his bat speed and swing when I saw him in Spring Training
last year, and his performance in High-A last year solidified my belief that
he's going to be an offensive beast. He needs a firmer (any) grasp of the
mental side of the game, and he might be limited to left field. But that
doesn't matter in most leagues, and even if Williams doesn't run much, he's
talented enough to routinely hit .280-plus and strong enough to routinely
challenge for 20 homers. In this offensive environment, that's a borderline
OF2 when paired with decent R and RBI totals, and I think Williams will reach
the majors at some point in 2016.”
3.42) Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
“Grabbing Harvey here was a reach, especially with some of the bats still on
the board, but I was expecting there to be a run on high-upside arms in the
late third/early fourth rounds. That didn’t quite happen, but I’m still
happy to get the young right-hander with my third pick. Few pitchers in the
low minors were as impressive as Harvey in 2014, as the then-19-year-old
dominated hitters in the South Atlantic League with basically his
fastball-curveball combination before getting shut down in late
July with a right elbow strain. The right-hander’s three-pitch arsenal gives
him big-time strikeout potential, though I do worry about his durability
given his lack of strength. Assuming he’s healthy, Harvey should open the
2015 season at High-A Frederick, with the potential to reach Double-A before
the halfway point. Like many of the Orioles’ other top draft picks in recent
years, Harvey should be able to move quickly through the minor leagues,
especially in comparison to his peers from the 2013 draft class.”
3.43) Steven Matz, LHP, New York Mets (D.J. Short, Rotoworld)
“Matz has been overshadowed by Noah Syndergaard in the Mets' system, but
he's quickly nipping at his heels. Selected in the second round in 2009, the
23-year-old southpaw saw the early part of his pro career stall after Tommy
John surgery and didn't make his debut until 2012, but he has made remarkable
progress over the past two seasons. Matz throws hard and also features a
plus-changeup and a developing curveball, so the arsenal is there and
improving. He has also made some nice strides with his control, especially
during his time in Double-A last year. Matz is expected to begin 2015 with
Triple-A Las Vegas, but he could make his way to the majors by the end of the
year. Naturally, I tend to be conservative with pitching prospects in these
kind of formats, but I feel that he's a nice value at this stage in the draft.”
3.44) Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“One of last year's preferred late-round fliers, Tapia had a successful
age-20 season in Low-A, slashing .326/.382/.453. For a relatively raw
prospect with the hitting ability Tapia boasts, that's a solid walk rate, and
it's nice to see that full-season arms weren't able to diminish his ability
to make contact. He certainly benefited from playing in one of the minors'
oddest/friendliest ballparks, but he's a potential five-category contributor
even if his power only gets to reach fringe-average. He should develop the
ability to help in batting average and stolen bases, and can likely help with
runs if he hits towards the top of the lineup. With Coors field as a future
home, I couldn't resist the overall package of tools from Tapia with the 44th
pick in the draft.”
3.45) Alex Jackson, OF, Seattle Mariners (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“The sixth-overall pick in the 2014 draft saw just 94 plate appearances in
Rookie-level ball after signing, hitting .280/.344/.476 with 10 of his 23 hits
going for extra bases. A catcher in high school, the Mariners seem to want to
speed his bat to the big leagues, making him a right fielder. He has the power
to be a middle of the order hitter, and could move quickly through the
Mariners system.”
Round Four
4.46) Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“Another young hitter with big power, Renfroe put up solid power numbers
last season, but struggled upon a promotion to Double-A. He will more than
likely start the season in Double-A, and will have to work on reducing his
whiff rate, as he struck out in 134 of his 567 plate appearances in 2014. If
all goes well, we could see Renfroe in right field in Petco Park by the
middle of the 2016 season.”
4.47) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“Getting Taillon with the 47th pick surprised me. Not that I think it's a
massive steal, but tabbing a guy this late, who has pitched at Triple-A and
who carries the pedigree that Taillon does, is a bonus. Sure, any pitcher
coming off Tommy John surgery is concerning, but Taillon boasts a combination
of ceiling and immediacy (even with the surgery factored in) that few on the
board could match. Plus, our format is starting a dynasty league from scratch,
so only getting a half-season from him in '15 isn't as big a deal as it would
be if I had a team in place that required immediate help for the rotation. If
he can show he's healthy early on this year, I fully expect him to close the
gap between, and perhaps surpass Tyler Glasnow as the Pirates top prospect.
While that happening is far from a certainty, 25 picks between the two makes
me content to take the risk.”
4.48) Michael Taylor, OF, Washington Nationals (D.J. Short, Rotoworld)
“Taylor has always had the tools, displaying excellent speed and defense in
center field along with raw power potential, but his pop didn't really show
on a consistent basis until last season. He amassed 23 home runs over 110
games between Double-A and Triple-A in 2014 after hitting just 27 in his
previous 421 minor-league games combined. We already know about what he can
do on the basepaths (he stole 37 bases last year and 51 in 2013), so the
power progression is pretty exciting from a fantasy perspective. He's
obviously far from a sure thing, though. Taylor struggled in his first taste
of the majors last year and his plate discipline isn't a strength. His ability
to make consistent contact is a legitimate question. There's bust potential
here, but I'll take a chance on the power-speed combo.”
4.49) D.J. Peterson, 3B, Seattle Mariners (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
“Peterson was the best bat still on my board, and with so many MLB-ready or
nearly MLB-ready guys already off the board, I’m honestly surprised/thrilled
to land him in the fourth round. Peterson split the 2014 season between the
High-A California League and Double-A Southern League, accruing 31 home runs
and 31 doubles between both stops while batting .297/.360/.552 in 547 plate
appearances. I view Peterson as one of the more advanced hitters in the minor
leagues, projecting as an above-average hitter with usable plus power.
There’s uncertainty about the 23-year-old’s long-term defensive home; he’s
currently a third baseman, but his lack of range, quickness and athleticism
means he’ll likely shift to first base. Regardless, Peterson’s offensive
profile should be a clean fit at either infield corner, and hopefully the
Mariners find a way to get his bat in the lineup at some point in 2015.”
4.50) Rymer Liriano, OF, San Diego Padres (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“San Diego's offseason moves have killed much of Liriano's 2015 value, but I
still really like his loud tools and athleticism. There's destined to be a
fair amount of fluctuation with his average on a year-to-year basis, but he
could challenge for 20/20 in a more neutral park, and while the body profiles
as one that could fill out and limit his speed, it's an attractive package nonetheless. Liriano is a high-variance player, but given the dearth of close-to-MLB-ready hitting talent remaining in this
draft, I'm happy snatching him up here and choosing between the 213,430 no.
3/4 starters that will likely remain when I pick next.”
4.51) Steven Souza, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“Once again, I chose a player that's ready to contribute now. The stakes are
raised in fantasy—in real life, a player can be a platoon or utility player
and avoid the bust label, but in fantasy they need to not only play every day,
but be good at the five main categories. Now, Souza probably won't have a
great batting average. He's a bit more of a power and patience guy. But what
I do like is that he's shown speed to go with his power, and he's probably
going to get a full year of leash in that Tampa outfield. I'll know quickly
if I've got a four-category asset for my fantasy team, and he won't clog up
my farm system for years to come. Souza led the Arizona Fall League in
velocity off the bat in 2013—he hits the ball hard when he makes contact.”
4.52) Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox (Chris Crawford, Draft to the Show/ESPN)
“It's unlikely that the first three guys I took this year will help you in
2015, but I do expect a contribution from Owens next year. He misses bats
with his fastball and change, and though the command isn't elite it's
certainly good enough for him to be a starter at the next level. Assuming he
can throw enough strikes to stick in the rotation, there's no. 2 potential in
his left arm, and at this point in the draft, I love the medium-risk,
high-reward potential.”
4.53) Jorge Alfaro, C, Texas Rangers (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“If you had told me heading into this draft, I’d have two pitchers and a
catcher (not named Kyle Schwarber) in the first four rounds, it would seem
like reason for disappointment, but sometimes the values just fall in places
that you don’t expect. Catching prospects get devalued in fantasy because of
the developmental curve and diminished playing time, but Alfaro has the chops
to be special at the position. One of the few catching prospects in the minors
who projects to hit for power in the middle of a lineup, the legendary one
could be a perennial top-three catcher as soon as 2017 or 2018. Plus, no one
ever lost points for adding a few steals on the base paths or calling
Arlington their home park.”
4.54) Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (James Anderson, Rotowire)
“Shipley’s stuff, size, and athleticism coupled with the fact that he is
relatively inexperienced as a pitcher leave me higher on the 6-foot-3 righty’s
potential than his numbers in his first full season in pro ball might warrant.
He climbed two full levels, finishing the year at Double-A Mobile, and posted
a 3.86 ERA with a 127-to-42 K:BB ratio in 126 innings along the way. I don’t
suspect most preseason rankings to echo this sentiment, but I believe a case
could be made that Shipley has surpassed Archie Bradley as the team’s most
appealing pitching prospect moving forward. If he can develop his curveball
into a third plus offering to go with his fastball and changeup, look out.”
4.55) Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (Brent Hershey, BaseballHQ)
“Somewhat surprised that he's still here in the mid-fourth round, given his
pedigree: excellent starters’ build, easy delivery, plus FB/CB combination
and a considerable ground-ball lean. But I imagine issues with his control
and a less-than-exciting strikeout rate during 2014 may be the reason. On the
flip side, he has some successful MLB time (albeit BABIP-enchanced) already
and, to channel my inner Eno, he's ready to contribute now. MLB role is still
a question, but if he does move to the bullpen, there's a good chance some
saves come his way in 2015 and perhaps beyond. So I find Sanchez'
versatility—he could still become a nice SP2 for fantasy if the control is
cleaned up—appealing in this spot.”
4.56) Luis Severino, RHP, New York Yankees (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“Severino was a sleeper prospect a year ago but now he's one of the top
right-handed pitching prospects in the game and probably the top Yankees
prospect overall. He showed a mid-to-upper-90s fastball last year, a strong
change-up, and a rapidly improving slider. His command is sharp and you can't
complain about the statistics: 2.47 ERA, 126-to-27 K:BB in 113 innings at
three levels, 93 hits, just three homers allowed all year. He's only 20 and
he finished strong in Double-A with a 2.52 ERA, 29-to-6 K:BB in 25 innings.
Severino has both the stuff and pitchability to thrive.”
4.57) Tyler Kolek, RHP, Miami Marlins (Craig Glaser, BSports)
“There were a number of arms I considered here but ultimately I decided to
go with Kolek, the 2nd overall pick in the 2014 draft. Kolek is a big guy
with a big fastball, which often hit triple digits in high school. He has
thrown both a curveball and a slider, and while we haven't seen much of him
in the pros yet, I couldn't pass on his big arm here.”
4.58) Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins (Al Melchior, CBS)
“I'm still getting used to the fact that the Twins have several enticing
pitching prospects, and given Alex Meyer's struggles with control last season,
Berrios has moved to the top of the chart for me. His domination of the
Florida State League at age 20 was impressive, and to exhibit decent command
and an above-average whiff rate in the Eastern League was just as much of a
head-turner. In another organization, I might worry some about Berrios'
fly-ball tendencies, but they should play to his advantage once he reaches
Target Field.”
4.59) Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs (Nick Shlain, Baseball Prospectus)
“Almora is just 20 and played 36 games at Double-A last year, but he has the
talent to potentially advance quickly. He’s a good enough hitter that he
could manage a .290 AVG with 15 home runs and some steals. Almora also plays
a good center field defensively, which adds to the likelihood of him being a
regular for years.”
4.60) Trea Turner, SS, Limbo (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“I would have taken Luis Severino here, but with him gone, there aren't any
pitchers I have to have so I'll keep taking position players. I'll go with
another big stolen-base threat in Turner, who eventually will go to the
Nationals from the Padres as part of the Wil Myers trade. There were
questions about Turner's swing this spring, but I think he'll settle down
when he's not asked to be a run producer in the middle of the lineup and can
focus on getting on base as a leadoff man. He has a little bit of pop and
while he's not a Gold Glover, he can definitely stay at shortstop.”
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