[閒聊] 數據無法說明白的現象

[Zamned (宮園かをり R.I.P.)]

棒球是數據化非常徹底的運動

人們總是說足球、籃球的化學效應很強

相比之下，在棒球場上除了防守外

跟隊友的互動好像就是差那麼一點

以至於人們長期忽略化學效應在棒球上的力量

以下這篇文章談到因為人心難測

使得數據一直以來無法量化休息室化學效應

也讓數據玩家會選擇忽略化學效應對球隊的影響

但是有些人可不這麼認為，這篇文章請來超多球員現身說法告訴大家神奇的化學效應

Jake Peavy、John Lackey、David Price、C.C. Sabathia都說出心裡的話


Sabathia：如果休息室的化學效應是好的，它能帶領球隊贏球。這是實話，你無法否認的

          看看老人隊，他們能贏球而且球員互相敬重彼此，他們有Jake Peavy這種帶氣

          氛的球員，你還得看看Tim Hudson帶給球隊的影響，化學效應是真的存在！


Jake Peavy：數據統計與贏球的關聯我不是很了解。但是我確定球員間形影不離、在乎

            彼此、一起享受比賽能夠替比賽帶來好結果。我見識過，也曾經體驗過。

            看看David Ross帶給小熊什麼？去年這個老捕手打的很糟，不過他還是拿

            到兩年保障約，這是為什麼呢？


David Price：不知道缺乏化學效應能帶給球隊什麼影響的人別在這個圈子混啦。這讓我憤怒。他們根本

             不知道這有多重要。去問問皇家、紅鳥、老人吧！老人並沒有很棒的天

             分，但是他們團結一心。紅鳥也是如此，他們有天分，但是不足以讓他

             們贏得這麼多場次。紅鳥非常不可思議，他們傷了這麼多大將，但是他

             們仍然持續贏球。



後面還有談到藍鳥的GM看大奶嬸與David Price給休息室帶來的文化，也同時提到捨寶貝

碰取LaTroy Hawkins也是考輛這些層面。


剩下的部分自己看吧


In a sport where the desire to quantify every movement only grows with each
season, it is a sabermetric aficionado’s worst nightmare.

You can’t measure it. You can’t define it. You can’t put a number on it.

We’re talking about clubhouse chemistry, and the culture that can raise a
major league team to extraordinary heights without having the biggest payroll
or most talent.

“It’s really undervalued,’’ St. Louis Cardinals veteran starter John
Lackey told USA TODAY Sports, “especially in today’s world with all of the
numbers guys.”

We can put all kinds of numbers on players’ talent, from RBI to WAR, to ERA
to FIP, but when it comes to the heart and soul of a clubhouse, there remains
no measuring stick.

“The numbers guys can’t quantify that one,’’ Lackey said, “so they don’
t want to believe in it.’’

You want to know what chemistry and culture is about, peek inside the San
Francisco Giants’ clubhouse. They’ve won three of the last five World
Series. Maybe they’ve had the best manager in Bruce Bochy, and GM too in
Brian Sabean, but never have they had the best talent.

“We’re in a game today where everybody wants to think they can formulate,
or come up with some kind of number,’’ says Giants starter Jake Peavy, who
like Lackey, has won World Series titles with two organizations. “You turn
on some of these baseball shows, and nobody wants to talk about the San
Francisco Giants, because numbers can’t explain how we won last year.

“They don’t want to talk about clubhouse chemistry.

“Come on, how to do you put a number on a guy like (Chicago Cubs backup
catcher David Ross) and what he brings to the clubhouse? This guy hit (.184)
last year, and he got multiple two-years deals on the table. Why is that?’’

Indeed, you step into the Cubs’ clubhouse these days, and no one is talking
about Ross’ .186 batting average and seven RBI. They’re too busy raving
about his powerful influence on a club featuring four rookies in the everyday
lineup.

“He means so much to every single person in here,’’ Cubs first baseman
Anthony Rizzo said.

Go ahead, try to put a number on that.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals have the two finest records in
baseball. If you go by the numbers, the Royals were supposed to win just 72
games this year, according to Baseball Prospectus’ projection system,
PECOTA. The Cardinals, who have had more injuries to key players than any
team, shouldn’t be leading their division, let alone be on pace to eclipse
100 victories, if you go strictly by sheer talent.

“People that don’t understand what team chemistry means don’t work in
baseball,’’ Toronto Blue Jays ace David Price said. “It makes me mad,
because obviously they don’t know how important it is. Ask the Giants. Ask
the Royals. Ask the Cardinals.

“You look at the Giants, and they’re not more talented than everyone else
every year, but they’re so close, and together. The Cardinals are the same
way. They definitely have talent, but they’re no more talented than a lot of
the teams they’re beating every day.

“The Cardinals are unbelievable. They lose their ace (Adam Wainwright). They
lose their No. 3 and No. 4 hitters in (Matt) Adams and (Matt Holliday). And
they’re still winning. They’re just unreal.

“It’s the same thing as the Royals. Yeah, they have talent, but you can
tell how close they are by watching them. I pay attention to all of that.’’

The Blue Jays placed more emphasis on a player’s character than any time in
GM Alex Anthopoulos’ tenure. He shipped out the guy who didn’t fit in. He
chose character over talent. There’s a reason why 42-year-old LaTroy Hawkins
is now in the Blue Jays’ bullpen instead of Jonathan Papelbon.

“We really, really, emphasized that,’’ Anthopoulos said, “more than we
ever have. It’s the first time we ever put that level of emphasis on it. The
focus of the offseason was that we were going to change the mix a little bit.
It’s not diving on anybody else, but it wasn’t working.

“Don’t get me wrong, it’s still talent and production first, but the other
component is almost as important. Just because you have all good people doesn
’t mean you’re always going to win. There are plenty of guys who have a
6-plus ERA who are tremendous clubhouse guys, but they’re sitting at
Triple-A.

“Every team goes through ups and downs, and I think with a better clubhouse
and with better character, that allows you to handle the downs a lot. That’s
the separator. So rather than the floor caving in on you, you stay afloat.

“We’ll find out if it works.’’

Certainly, adding a guy like Price at the trade deadline, and having MVP
favorite Josh Donaldson the entire season, may have something to do with the
Blue Jays’ success, too. Yet, manager John Gibbons can’t stop raving about
Donaldson’s leadership skills, and Price is revered throughout the game.

For whatever reason, the Blue Jays are 18-4 since consummating the Price deal.

“We were looking for a special type of player, even if it meant passing on
some talent,’’ Anthopoulos said, “making sure every player we acquired fit.

“I think it’s important David Price fit into in the clubhouse, but let’s
don’t forget he’s got a (2.40) ERA, too.’’

Sure, you’ve got to have talent to win, but talent alone doesn’t guarantee
a thing. If the standings were based strictly on talent, you think the
Washington Nationals would be trailing the New York Mets by five games? You
think the Los Angeles Dodgers, and their $307 million payroll, would be only
up 1 ½ games on the Giants? You think the Texas Rangers would be winning the
second wild-card spot, or that the Minnesota Twins - projected to lose 92
games - would be just 1 1/2 games out of the wild-card race?

“If you have good clubhouse chemistry, you going to win,’’ New York
Yankees veteran starter CC Sabathia said. “It’s not something you can fake.
It’s real.

“You look at the Giants. Those guys love each other, and they win. They get
a guy like Peavy. You see what (Tim) Hudson has meant for them. It’s the
real thing.’’


Sure, numbers are fine for fantasy leagues, but if you want to truly define a
player’s value, or recognize the importance significance of clubhouse
culture, it’s time to wake up and embrace character, too.

“I think we’re losing part of our game because so many of these people in
charge don’t have the scouting background or playing background,’’ Peavy
said. “All they have is a great education and they’re really good at math.
Some of these front offices crunch all of these numbers, and think they’ve
got it all figured out.

“I don’t know the formula for winning, but I do know what it means when
teams are inseparable, enjoy their time together, care for each other, and
play for the higher cause. I’ve seen it. I’ve been part of it.

“You can have all of the education you want, and break down every number you
want, but unless you get to know what’s inside a player, you really don’t
know the player.’’

The Royals certainly noticed the tepid external expectations. Public
relations director Mike Swanson, in his recent pre-game notes, reminded
everyone of Baseball Prospectus’ projected 72-90 record. The Royals have
already won a league-leading 75 games, and could clinch their first division
title in 30 years by Labor Day.

“Fortunately, games are won on a field and not on paper,’’ Swanson wrote
in the Royals’ notes distributed to the media, “thus a computer ‘time out’
 might be appropriate for some.”


“We had our Moneyball movie, and they didn’t even win,’’ Peavy said of
the Oakland Athletics. “How about let’s make a movie about the good ol’
 fashioned baseball people, and how they judge team chemistry, and put
together guys that fit in.

“How about a movie about a team that actually wins in the end?’’

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やっ..........！！！！！！止めろペイモンこの野郎～～～～～～っ
地獄でいきなり聖書なんえ 読み上げやがってえ~~~~~~~~~っ！！殺すえおっ！！



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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1440511952.A.2E7.html
推 mrkey: Hunter Pence 是這方面的代表
推 dufflin: 捨寶貝碰取LaTroy Hawkins  欸~
推 maxspeed150: chemistry 寧可信其有不可信其無
→ maxspeed150: 不過 只有強隊才會有好的chemistry
※ 編輯: Zamned (36.224.218.126), 08/25/2015 22:20:13
推 mess0706: 好想知道現在LAD休息室氣氛怎樣？誰該出來帶頭？
→ mess0706: A-Gon 好像不太有這方面的氣質
→ mess0706: 然後球隊裡面一堆奇奇怪怪的咖
推 mrkey: Mattingly 也不像是個 vocal guy
推 aquacomfort: 本來就是這樣 打過棒壘球就知道了 比賽節奏很慢 大多
→ aquacomfort: 數時間是待在場邊發呆打屁 很容易想些有的沒的 在場
→ aquacomfort: 邊的氛圍不能愉悅而無負擔的話走上場會嚴重影響表現
推 Maverick77: 難怪國民下半季，戰績直直落。費城反而戰績扶搖直上~~
推 b99202071: Z魔神啊 再問一次誰大便沒洗手（？）
推 niravaabhas: 心理層面真的是重點 這部份數據無法計算
推 WasHenryTsen: 淚推洋基支柱沙胖
推 ocean11: 真的
→ WasHenryTsen: 聽說他會跟隊友去打籃球！
→ unicorn45: 有在打球的都知道休息室的氣氛絕對有差
推 lovebulls: Of course yes !! 剛開始看棒球的時候不知道化學效應是
→ lovebulls: 甚麼 懂一點數據的時候覺得化學效應被誇大了 現在則是
→ lovebulls: 完全不懷疑化學效應的重要
→ lovebulls: 只要是跟人有關的 這個東西永遠都重要
推 fountainNess: Zamned大,小熊的休息室領袖是誰阿,Rizzo嗎?
推 Lucroy: 可能是西瓜XD
推 TSbb: 只推四樓那行
→ fountainNess: 蛇蛇現在chemistry不錯,但蛇蛇不是強隊～
→ charlie01: 與其說強隊 應該說贏球的隊才有好的chemistry
→ charlie01: 這些事其實大家都知道也不會否認吧 也沒有那麼神祕
→ charlie01: 只要有跟一些比賽加上看一些beat writer的側記
→ charlie01: 該隊氣氛如何或領袖是誰對球迷來說其實也都有底
推 lovebulls: 要贏球 一是實力 二是決心 至於chemistry之於強隊
→ lovebulls: 這就是雞生蛋 蛋生雞的問題了
推 poweryeh: 可以參考NBA的馬刺 季後賽還全隊去看復仇者聯盟 XD
推 Uaena: 最近天使打的很糟Houston street也有對大家喊話
→ Uaena: 老將價值
→ DesertEagleX: http://bit.ly/1WQl3T4
→ EEERRIICC: 海盜休息區也是神祕chemistry
推 Uaena: 還有我倒不覺得贏球的隊才會有好的chemistry，但持續在贏球
→ Uaena: 的隊伍多半都會有不錯的chemistry
推 eatthis: 有數據派開始在弄這一塊 有點像行為經濟學的研究
→ EEERRIICC: 輸球有輸球的chemistry....
→ Beisbol: 怎麼沒有潮哥？swag已經被遺忘了嗎？
推 KEDEN: 運動球隊中 多半都有類似更衣室領袖這種角色的人 而且大多
→ KEDEN: 數都不是成績很優秀的球員
推 KEDEN: 這種東西很好玩 個人覺得這也是吸引球迷很大的一種因素
推 aquacomfort: 籃球節奏快 在場邊可以做的該做的相較棒球有限太多了
噓 rex9999: Wang帶給休息室的化學效應是？　合約已實質反應
→ gfn423: 嗯～看到勇士換Uribe到Mets後的兩隊戰績，這套說法更有說
→ gfn423: 服力了
→ w6607282: 老人是哪隊啊？
推 shanaandlai: 看no的自傳，其中不止一次提到隊伍奪冠時候的氣氛，
→ shanaandlai: 的確讓人無法完全否定氣勢氛圍這種情況，(mo
噓 howard21201: Price想引戰嗎?? 巨人沒天分??
推 dp44: 常贏球 戰績好  氣氛自然就會好
推 aa10252233: 寶貝碰uccu  根本燙手山芋啊
推 padmae: 老人內野全農場~Ace也是自家栽培 主力間根本青梅竹馬 XD
推 blacklittle: 躲人少了有理伯後 也是...
推 kenny7998: 休息室氣氛真的差很多啊... XD
推 kenwufederer: 實力差距不大下 向心力其實重要
推 illidan23: 內野全農場 這對默契和信心幫助真的很大
推 JoeMauer7: 我城老獵人也是~
推 Asucks: 所以Puig無法成為真正的巨星...道奇實力也與戰績有差異
推 th11yh23: 化學效應這種東西不就後見之明 勝率低的球隊氣氛是能好
→ th11yh23: 到哪裡去？ 這搬到哪種運動都一樣吧
推 Lucroy: 巨人就是老人
推 shawshien: Hammel 說 Ross 是team dad
推 edwardcwd: 說不定未來心理素質也會被數據化
推 TSbb: 繼投手數據好球質就重後，MLB啟發台灣又一力作 XD
推 bonjovi0930: 笑臉人休息室氣氛應該不錯，但戰績還是要看球員能力
噓 kyo28: 明顯 考輛<===量
推 stevexu: 其實也是有反證Kent自己受訪時說過他跟Bonds在巨人時關係
→ stevexu: 一直不好,休息室氣氛很糟,不過那時巨人還是很有競爭力
→ peterhuo: 問題是你本來數據就好啊，打起來自然感到有化學效應
→ peterhuo: 人有百百種，有人歡樂打球能打好，有人非要痛苦才能綻放