[情報] 10支會受到自由球員市場衝擊的隊伍

[LAAPujols (LAAPujols )]

Right now, our focus is mostly on the still unfurling and curse-busting/curse-
sustaining World Series matchup between the Cubs and Indians. However, free ag
ency begins not long after said World Series concludes, and the vast remainder
 of teams are no doubt busy readying their winter plans.

現在，我們大家最關注的仍是正在進行中，由印地安人和小熊所組成的 「要嘛，打破魔
咒；要嘛，延續魔咒」的世界大賽，自由球員市場在世界大賽結束不久後就會展開，其他
沒晉級的隊伍也毫無疑問地正在忙著籌備著他們冬天的要進行的計劃(FA市場)。

So let's step back from the rush of the Fall Classic for a moment and devote s
ome early bandwidth to the teams who figure to be hit hardest by free agency.
In all cases, the 10 teams to follow have at least a theoretical shot at conte
ntion in 2017, so their departing free agents -- if not adequately replaced --
 could take a bite out of those hopes. No doubt, some of the names to follow w
ill wind up back in their respective 2016 folds, but most of them are probably
 bound elsewhere.

讓我們暫時遠離世界大賽的喧囂然後來看一下哪些隊伍會受到衝擊，在所有隊伍中，會有
10支球隊理論上會在2017年賽季中脫穎而出，所以如果他們沒有把因為自由球員裡開所造
成的空缺補齊，可能會受到傷害。毫無疑問地，有些自由球員會風光回歸原本的隊伍，但
大部分字有球員可能會跳槽到別的隊伍去。

To give you an idea of the overall "talent drain" each of these 10 teams face,
 we'll include the cumulative 2016 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) figure for the
 crop of pending free agents in question (listed free agents only). In the cas
e of players who were traded during the season, we'll use their WAR from their
 current team only. Yes, WAR has its shortcomings, but it provides a somewhat
useful thumbnail estimate of overall value, so it's usable for these quick-and
-dirty purposes. The rankings won't be ordered exactly by WAR, but it's there
for reference.

我們會透過WAR值讓各位知道這些球員的價值，讓各位知道這10支球隊流失自由球員會是
什麼樣的概念(只講我們列出來的球員)。如果球員是在季中被交易，那我們只會講他在被
交易後去到的隊伍所繳出的WAR值。當然，WAR值有它的缺點所在，但不知怎麼著的，它就
是可以提供一個有用且大略的整體價值分析，所以它適用於為了快速分析的目的上。排名
不會真地用WAR值來排，就是用它來當作參考。

Also, we're not including any players with club or player options for 2017. Wh
ile those players might indeed wind up as free agents this upcoming winter, th
at can't be safely assumed right now.Let's light this candle, in order of whic
h team stands to lose the most value ...

還有，我們不會提到在2017有選擇權的自由球員。雖然那些球員有可能在即將來臨的冬天
走人，但現在還不能鐵口直斷。讓我們點燃蠟燭，來看一下哪些隊將要失去哪些重要支柱
。

1. Los Angeles Dodgers 洛杉磯道奇
Notable pending free agents: SP Brett Anderson, RP Joe Blanton, RP Jesse Chave
z, SP Rich Hill, RP J.P. Howell, RP Kenley Jansen, OF Josh Reddick, 3B Justin
Turner, 2B Chase Utley
Combined 2016 WAR: 12.0
Turner, thanks to his power and defensive value, was probably the Dodgers' sec
ond-most valuable position player this season, behind rookie phenom Corey Seag
er. Meantime, Jansen is a lockdown closer who in the postseason proved flexibl
e enough to work outside traditional parameters. Hill was the team's most reli
able non-Clayton Kershaw starter down the stretch and in the playoffs, and Bla
nton was a valuable middle relief piece all year. The Dodgers obviously have t
he resources to re-sign whoever they choose (even with roughly $180 million al
ready committed for 2017), but it remains to be seen how the front office choo
ses to play it this winter.

從他的攻擊火力和防守價值來看，Turner可能是道奇這賽季在Seager之後第二位最有價值
的球員。同時，Jansen是強力終結者，他在季後賽證明了自己在非傳統調度的靈活性。Hi
ll是除了Kershaw之外在季後賽中道奇最倚重的先發投手，Blanton今年則是個有價值的中
段牛棚。到其當然有資源簽下回他們想要的球員(即使在2017已經花了1億8000萬)，拭目
以待他們的西裝組會在冬天做出甚麼事情。

2. Toronto Blue Jays 多倫多藍鳥
Notable pending free agents: OF Jose Bautista, RP Joaquin Benoit, RP Brett Cec
il, SPR.A. Dickey, DH/1B Edwin Encarnacion, OF Michael Saunders
Combined 2016 WAR: 8.1
Do the Jays choose to re-up with two decline-phase hitters who contribute nega
tive value on the defensive side of things? Bautista and Encarnacion are franc
hise stalwarts and rich sources of power. To be sure, the Jays have enough of
a core returning to contend for a wild-card spot, but bringing back at least E
ncarnacion would help matters. Then again, there's long-term risk in signing a
ging sluggers at market rates. I expect the Mark Shapiro regime to take a pass
 on pretty much every name listed above.

藍鳥會把兩位在防守端捅婁子且步入衰退期的打者簽回嗎?Bautista和EE是球隊支柱且擁
有很強的爆發力，不能否定的是，藍鳥至少把EE簽回來會讓自己有足夠的本錢再次競爭外
卡的位置。再次強調，用市場行情簽下老化的長打打者有很長期的風險，我預期藍鳥團隊
大概都不會續簽名單上的球員。

3. New York Mets 紐約大都會
Notable pending free agents: RP Jerry Blevins, OF Yoenis Cespedes*, SP Bartolo
 Colon, INF/OF Kelly Johnson, RP Fernando Salas, 2B Neil Walker
Combined 2016 WAR: 12.0
The asterisk above indicates that Cespedes isn't a free agent just yet. Howeve
r, he has an opt-out, and it seems highly likely that he'll use it. Considerin
g how much trouble the Mets had scoring runs this past season (they were 11th
in the NL), bringing back Cespedes -- easily their best pure hitter -- should
be a high priority, at least if the Mets want to contend again. Elsewhere, Joh
nson's swing changes may make him a worthwhile re-up. As for Walker, he's a re
liable producer at the keystone. However, he's coming off back surgery, so he
may be a tough call when it comes to tendering him a $17.2 million qualifying
offer. Let us also recall that the Mets still aren't running payrolls commensu
rate with their revenue and market size.

打上星號的代表Cespedes現在還不是自由球員。然而，他有跳出合約的權利，看起來他也
很有可能選擇這樣做。考慮到大都會本季慘不忍睹的得分能力(國聯第11名) ，如果大都
會想要在明年有競爭力的話，把最好打者Cespedes帶回來應該列為最優先處理的項目。再
來，Johnson的打擊成績或許可讓他更有價值。隊Walker來說，他是個可以依賴，有生產
力的基石打者，然而，他剛動完手術，給他1720萬的QO可能是個很難做的決策。

4. Texas Rangers 德州遊騎兵
Notable pending free agents: OF/DH Carlos Beltran, OF Ian Desmond, OF Carlos G
omez, SP Colby Lewis, 1B Mitch Moreland
Combined 2016 WAR: 7.0
Needless to say, the lineup could take some winter hits down in Arlington. Des
mond's successful "pillow" year with the Rangers may price him out of their ra
nge, and Beltran may be too risky heading into his age-40 campaign. Gomez redi
scovered his approach in Texas, and bringing him back under the assumption of
sustainability makes for an intriguing option. The Rangers have made some now-
for-later trades in the recent past, but they still have an impressive core of
 young position players. As such, they may lean toward filling lineup holes in
ternally. As for the rotation, the market may offer better back-end help than
Lewis does at this stage of his career.

不用多說，條子的打線在這冬天可能會有更動，Desmond在這季的表現可能會讓它變的太
貴，簽40歲的Beltran風險又太高，Gomez在遊騎兵隊找回昔日身手，讓他是否能持續這種
表現的說法變成是一個耐人尋味的選項，條子最近做出了一些炒短線的交易，但他們還有
一些令人驚艷的年輕核心選手，嚴格來說，他們應該會從自己的農場拉人上來補打線空缺
。而輪值的方面，可以從市場選一些現階段可以投得比Colby Lewis好的後段輪值投手。

5. Washington Nationals 華盛頓國民
Notable pending free agents: RP Matt Belisle, INF Stephen Drew, OF Chris Heise
y, RP Mark Melancon, C Wilson Ramos, RP Mark Rzepczynski
Combined 2016 WAR: 6.8
The Nats will very likely open the 2017 season as the favorites in the NL East
, so they would do well to bring back Melancon, who has established himself as
 one of the best closers in baseball. Ramos was one of the most productive cat
chers in 2016, but he'll be working his way back from a second torn ACL in his
 right knee. As such, his status for 2017 -- particularly behind the plate --
is left to question. An incentive-heavy contract would certainly make sense fr
om the club standpoint, but that depends upon Ramos' recovery and reading of t
he market. Belisle and Rzepczynski both make sense as bullpen pieces.

國民在2017開季大概會打出國聯東區最好的成績，他們可能會把棒球最好終結者之一的Me
lancon簽回來。Ramos是2016最有生產力之一的捕手，但它再跟他的右膝蓋撕裂傷奮鬥中
，她在明年尤其是蹲捕的表現，仍是個問號。球團應該會拿出豐厚激勵獎金的合約，但還
得看Ramos的恢復程度和市場解讀。Belisle和Rzepczynski則還算可以的牛棚投手。

6. Baltimore Orioles 巴爾地摩金鶯
Notable pending free agents: DH Pedro Alvarez, OF/INF Steve Pearce, OF Mark Tr
umbo, C Matt Wieters
Combined 2016 WAR: 4.1
The Orioles were the most power-dependent offense in baseball last season, and
 within the names above you have a total of 89 home runs hitting the market. T
he demand for Wieters probably prices him out of Baltimore's range, but a Trum
bo reunion seems more viable. If that comes to pass, then they would do well t
o install him at DH so that he doesn't give back so many runs with his glove.
The underrated Pearce would also be a useful returnee.

金鳥是在去年球季最倚賴攻擊火力的球隊，這份名單中的球員總共打出89支全壘打，Wiet
ers的價碼可能讓金鳥負擔不起，但簽回川寶似乎是較可行的辦法，如果這行得通，金鳥
應會讓川寶去打DH因為她的手套(守備)讓球隊多掉了很多分。找回被低估的Pearce也是個
行得通的辦法。

7. Chicago Cubs 芝加哥小熊
Notable pending free agents: RP Trevor Cahill, RP Aroldis Chapman, OF Chris Co
ghlan, OF Dexter Fowler, C David Ross (eligible for free agency but set to ret
ire), RP Joe Smith, RP Travis Wood
Combined 2016 WAR: 9.6
The Cubs have a terrific base of young talent, a full rotation coming back and
 a canny front office. That is to say, they'll contend even if they lose and d
on't conspicuously replace each and every name above -- with the possible exce
ption of Fowler, who has a mutual option. The bullpen, though, could take a hi
t. Chapman is an elite closer and bat-misser, and we've seen the value of thos
e this postseason (even if Chapman hasn't quite shown Andrew Miller-grade usag
e flexibility). Smith, Wood and Cahill have also been solid depth pieces. As f
or Fowler, his on-base skills and the way he's taken so well to playing a deep
er center field make him a valuable piece. Thanks to the Cubs' roster depth an
d high-upside talent, there's a big gap between what they stand to lose and wh
at the top six teams stand to lose this winter.

小熊有一拖拉庫才華洋溢的年輕人還有完整的輪值以及謹慎行事的制服組，也就是說，即
便他們沒有積極地填補名單上每個人所留下來的空缺，他們仍然競爭力十足。如果真的要
做些甚麼，可以補牛棚，Chapman是使打者變人體電風扇的菁英終結者，我們在這季後賽
驗證了這些價值(即使Chapman不能跟Miller一樣展現出靈活的被調度性)，Smith、Wood、
Cahill也加深了牛棚的深度。至於Fowler嘛.. 她的上壘技巧跟他在中外野的表現讓它變
成非常有價值的球員。小熊要失去的東西跟上面提到的6支隊伍比起來小很多，這得感謝
他們的陣容深度。

8. Houston Astros 休士頓太空人
Notable pending free agents: C Jason Castro, SP Doug Fister, OF Colby Rasmus,
3BLuis Valbuena
Combined 2016 WAR: 5.7
The Astros are poised to have Alex Bregman at third base for the entire 2017 s
eason (and beyond), so Valbuena won't be coming back. As for Castro, his incon
sistent bat plus the going rates for free-agent catchers likely mean Houston w
on't pay that particular cost. Fister is at most a rotation depth piece, but t
his is a team that will probably need rotation depth. Rasmus is coming off a s
eason in which he declined offensively, and he's also coming off a season in w
hich he accepted a qualifying offer. A departure seems likely.

空仔已經準備好讓Alex Bregman在2017整個賽季當三壘手(以後也是)，所以Valbuena不會
回來了，至於Castro，他不穩定的火力輸出加上他在自由球員捕手的評價可能意味著空仔
不會簽他。Fister頂多就是增加輪值深度，而這個隊伍可能需要輪值上的深度。Rasmus這
個球季的攻擊能力衰退，而他也將要結束這個接受QO的賽季，離開太空人看來是可能的。

9. San Francisco Giants 舊金山巨人
Notable pending free agents: RP Santiago Casilla, RP Javier Lopez, RP Joe Nath
an, OF Angel Pagan, RP Sergio Romo
Combined 2016 WAR: 3.1
The Giants are faced with a case of losing bodies as opposed to tremendous ove
rall value. Pagan has been a fixture, but he'll be 36 before the All-Star brea
k. A return in a more limited role seems plausible. The San Fran bullpen was r
ightly maligned in 2016, but above you see three volume contributors plus end-
of-year piece Nathan. An overhaul of the relief corps is probably in the works
, but where are the improvements going to come from? Expect the Giants to be p
layers in the market for closers, but the market for setup help is thinner.

巨人正面臨著失去隊上具有重大價值球員的問題，Pegan一直表現穩定但他在明星賽前就3
6歲了，回來扮演著更加受限的角色看起來似是而非。巨人的牛棚在2016可說是淒慘無比
，但你看到上面這三位加上快要玩完的Nathan，整個牛棚的大改造看起來已經正在進行中
了，但該從哪補強呢?敬請期待巨人在市場裡挖終結者吧，set-up man看起來會比較沒那
麼緊迫。

10. Seattle Mariners
Notable pending free agents: OF Norichika Aoki, OF Franklin Gutierrez, 1B Dae-
ho Lee, 1B Adam Lind, RP Drew Storen
Combined 2016 WAR: 2.1
Aoki has a mutual option for 2017, so we'll consider him, in essence, a free a
gent. He gave the M's a dose of OBP they've been lacking in recent years. Guti
errez and Lee were valuable depth contributors and Storen pitched well in limi
ted exposure after the July trade that brought him to Seattle. Lind generally
disappointed, so a reunion there seems less than likely.

Aoki有跟球隊共同的選擇權，本質上來說，就是個自由球員，他給了水手近年一直缺乏的
上壘率，Gutierrez和Lee是可提供球隊深度有價值的球員，Storen在7月被交易過來的有
限的幾場出賽中也表現地可圈可點。Lind基本上就是表現地令人失望，所以回來的可能性
微乎其微。

Now,
back to your regular World Series programming.
好了，現在你可以回去看你的世界大賽了。

來源：goo.gl/tJpqr0v

--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1477645226.A.26B.html
※ 編輯: LAAPujols (111.82.219.8), 10/28/2016 17:01:01
※ 編輯: LAAPujols (111.82.219.8), 10/28/2016 17:06:56
推 Sunrise2516: 感謝翻譯
推 TWeng: 包爺去巨人不知有沒有搞頭
推 ksaon: 巨人每年都是老化問題阿  畢竟沒有三十三，
→ TWeng: 忘記包爺也很老了...
推 Eddward: 不看好川寶會複製今年成績
推 mhtvpz: 不是人人都是吹哥  膜拜 跪
推 acd51874: Turner應該也會很搶手，感覺不輸古巴人(位置小優古巴)
推 vata: 藍鳥的變數很大....
推 th11yh23: 推
推 noodlecool: 包爺如果去舊金山: 包大人->包巨人?
推 ocean11: 金鶯怎麼看上的都是守備不好的
推 w9103: 小熊把黑霧賣掉阿
推 Lacus0827: 藍鳥農場去年掏空的結果 我覺得不該放EE走
推 saiulbb: EE應該會留 Bautista看價碼
推 kbwai: 推翻譯…自由市場還有不錯CL給我巨挖嗎…
推 OoyaoO: Chapman阿 只是他肯定會破RP合約紀錄
推 triff: 巨人payroll有限，去年都花在投手身上了，很難想像他們會真
→ triff: 的簽包大人或EE
→ LAAPujols: Payroll該怎麼翻
推 pp810207: 小熊的主力都還在，佛樂倒是可以送走了
推 baso: Chap不知道會不會打工完拿個戒指回去當北佬@@
→ paso: 巨人比較缺的是closer...
推 mannypo: NYY不是有計畫把Chapman買回去嗎？
推 ymcheung: 水手根本要大修 不過幸好不會每年都要重新認識整支球隊
→ KEDEN: 到期該把先發投手整理一下了....每年都靠書僮撐不久
推 akila08539: 水手還是把一朗買回來吧(喂)
→ KEDEN: 道奇
推 Roshiel: 明年洋基可能還是陪打，未必會搶火球
→ Roshiel: 黑娃已經到谷底了吧，明年很難再這麼爛了
推 ck326: 洋基那個輪值先搞好再說吧.....現在花1000萬買CL根本沒意義
推 Schwarber12: P"e"gan?         滿意外小熊會在名單裡QQ
推 e920528: 推
推 scheiss: 洋基明年又沒要拼冠軍 明年是要練小朋友吧 簽回來幹嘛？
推 Valter: 近20年洋基有哪年沒競爭力直接認輸的?
推 noahlin: 洋基這幾年就是介於五成到外卡中間 陣容洞不少
→ noahlin: 有一點競爭力 但很難說是爭冠球隊 應該不會砸大錢簽CL
→ Roshiel: 如果年底灑錢搶CL，那交易A米就是件蠢事
推 scheiss: 要補洞也不是補CL 牛棚還有天天B
→ Rodriguez: 我比較想知道.有沒有近五年沒進季後賽.然後明年有機會
→ Rodriguez: 成為黑馬的球隊~?
推 bkm1: 小熊會走的野手就Fowler 結果補上Schwarber 實力不減反增
→ bkm1: 至於牛嘛 RP本來就是很不肯定的因素 FA市場RP本就不太受重視
推 prayer513: 洋基不是花不起 而是值不值得花 今年換到的農作物都很
→ prayer513: 不錯 或許就當作花錢買天份 會不會簽回來真的不好講
推 FarRed: 空仔明年CL有沒有要換人～
推 whhw: 有沒有哪隊要梭哈
推 youngsam: Payroll 就薪資總額吧？
→ youngsam: RP就季中再買就好了XD
推 baso: 還是覺得洋基會有一點興趣 但是小熊勢必提QO 所以要高薪簽cp
→ baso: 還要賠選秀不知道值不值得
→ vencil: 季中交易沒QO，小熊沒辦法對Chapman提的
→ sdiaa: 川寶只要健康 30發差不多 狀況好一點40發
推 franky1021: 推翻譯 道奇那段有錯字 X到其O道奇
推 youngsam: 小熊不能對Chapman提QO好嗎。。。
推 puppetired: 推~~~
推 oldcup: 金鶯第一段應該是"在攻擊面上最依賴力量"的意思
推 Zuleta: 哪來QO....
推 silvermoon: 大都會Walker那段 the keystone是指2B 非基石打者