[外電] 牛棚的差別

[mike5314 (呵呵安安科科QQ)]

https://goo.gl/BbSq9V
本文翻譯自Fangraphs.com

When it became very clear that the 2016 Chicago Cubs, the 103-win Chicago Cubs, were potentially one game away from their historical season coming to a disappointing finish, the pitcher standing on the mound was Travis Wood. Wood had just been brought in to face the left-handed Jason Kipnis, and Wood had just thrown three balls in four pitches to Jason Kipnis, and then an 87-mph cutter breaking right toward the heart of the plate. Kipnis hit the very hittable cutter 10 rows deep into the right field
bleachers at Wrigley Field, on a windy night in Chicago when would-be home runs were becoming warning track fly outs all evening long. Not this one.


小熊隊即將只剩一場球賽的機會,就可能以失望結束這個令人期待的賽季,而此時在投手丘上的是Travis Wood. 他才剛被送到場上,對付目前的打者,左打的Kipnis.
前四球中,他已經投出三顆壞球, 第五球是顆接近紅中的Cutter, Kipnis大棒一揮
這球飛向了右外野看台, 在風城芝加哥, 這球很有可能會被吹成warning track 前被接殺的深遠飛球, 但事與願違


Nothing was stopping this ball, off the bat at 105 mph, from landing in the bleachers (and then immediately being thrown back onto the field), from giving the Indians a 7-1 lead in the game, and from getting the Indians one step closer to the 3-1 lead in the World Series which they now possess. And when that ball was on its way out of the playing field, Aroldis Chapman, Hector Rondon, and Pedro Strop, the three most important Cubs relievers during the regular season, looked on from the third-base
bullpen, none of them having thrown a single pitch in the game.
Rondon eventually mopped up Wood’s mess — and Justin Grimm‘s and Mike Montgomery‘s mess, too — throwing two scoreless innings, striking out two of the eight batters he faced while pumping fastballs that touched 99 mph. And the fact that it was Rondon who mopped up the mess caused by lesser relievers, while Chapman and Strop contributed nothing, highlights the key difference between the bullpens of the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians in this World Series.


離開球棒的初速高達105mph, 這球最後上了看台, 給了印地安人7-1的大幅領先, 也讓印地安人在系列賽取得3-1聽牌優勢的距離也更近了
小熊牛棚裡最好的三隻牛 Aroldis Chapman, Hector Rondon, 和 Pedro Strop都在場下看著這球飛上外野看台,此時他們都還沒有上場投出任何一球.
比賽的後來 Rondon終於上場了, 上場收拾前面投手留下的爛攤子, 兩局, 兩K, 無失分
三人中的另外兩人英雄無用武之地, 也無情地顯示出兩隊牛棚的差別


It’s not that the Cubs don’t have a trio of relievers as talented as Cleveland’s late-inning triumvirate of Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, and Bryan Shaw. They do. They might even have the more talented trio. Chapman, Strop, and Rondon combined for a 2.59 ERA and a 2.55 FIP in the regular season. Miller, Allen, and
Shaw combined for a 2.36 ERA, but a 2.93 FIP. The regular season results paint an almost identical picture. The projections actually favor the Cubs relief corps.
The difference is this: entering Game Four on Saturday, Chapman, Strop, and Rondon had combined to throw a grand total of four innings for the Cubs in the World Series. Miller, Allen, and Shaw had thrown double that many. The first guys out of Terry Francona‘s bullpen in the World Series have been Miller, Zach McAllister, Miller, and Miller. The first guys out of Joe Maddon’s bullpens have been Strop, Montgomery, Grimm, and Montgomery.


這並不是說小熊三人組不如印地安人牛棚三雄 Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, 以及 Bryan Shaw.
小熊三人組合在季賽繳出 2.59 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 而印地安人三雄則是2.36 ERA, 但較高的FIP.
事實上, 在我們(Fangraphs)的預測系統中, 小熊的牛棚是確實佔優勢的, 但小熊目前的落後, 也許是差在教練團調度的問題, 小熊三人組在前三場, 總共只投了四局, 反觀印地安人, 卻是對手的一倍.
印地安人在先發面對危機時, 每場牛棚第一人, 分別為 Miller, McAllister, Miller, Miller. 然後,小熊的第一人是, Strop, Montgomery, Grimm, 及 Montgomery


Only one time has a Cubs starting pitcher handed the ball off to one of the team’s three best regular season relievers, and in that one instance, in Game One, Pedro Strop faced just one batter, who he struck out, throwing just six pitches. Then came Wood, and then came Grimm, who put two men on before Rondon came in and served up the three-run homer to Roberto Perez that blew open the game.


當先發面臨危機時, 小熊僅在第一場派出他們牛棚最好的三位投手之一(Strop), 而他也只投了六球, 面對一名打者就下場. 在他之後的是Wood, Grimm, 接下來就是Perez 的三分砲.


In Game Three, it was Carl Edwards Jr. who was left in to face Coco Crisp with the go-ahead run on third base, having already thrown 23 pitches, while Strop, Rondon, and most importantly, Chapman, sat idly in the bullpen. Crisp brought that run in, and it was all Cleveland needed to win.


在第三戰, 超前分在三壘時, Carl Edwards Jr. 在場上面對 Coco Crisp, 此時他已經丟了23球, 然而 牛棚最佳三人, Strop, Rondon, Chapman都還在牛棚裡坐著.
結果你也知道, Crisp打回了超前分, 印地安人也從Wrigley Field帶回勝利


Game Four saw Cleveland turn an uncertain 3-1 sixth-inning lead into a 7-1 blowout the following inning by beating up on Montgomery, Grimm, and Wood without ever having to face the three-headed monster envisioned at the back end of the Cubs’ bullpen when they traded top prospect Gleyber Torres and more to the Yankees at the deadline for Chapman.


第四場,來訪的克城球隊從Montgomery, Grimm, 及 Wood手中, 將領先優勢從
3-1擴大到7-1, 令人不意外的, 他們還是沒有面對到小熊牛棚三巨頭, 尤其是那個在交易截止日前,用球團裡的最佳新秀換來的 Chapman.


Of course, it’s easier to use your best relievers when you’ve got the lead, and the Indians’ hitting and starting pitching has afforded them more leads than the Cubs. That being said, deficits can still be held in check, and we just saw in Game Four how quickly a manageable deficit can get out of hand when a lesser reliever is on the mound. Part of this, too, is Rondon and Strop potentially not being their true selves. Strop missed more than a month with knee and groin injuries that kept him
sidelined until late September; Rondon missed several weeks around the same time with arm problems. And the other part is Chapman, whose warmup routine currently prevents him from straying too far from his ninth inning role, forcing situations like the one Chicago faced in Game Three, when Edwards gave up the game-winning hit to Crisp in a situation when the Cubs would have likely loved to have their best reliever in the game.


當處於領先時, 派你陣中最好的後援投手上場處理危機是天經地義的一件事, 克城打線及先發投手讓他們取得多次領先.
然而, 落後的分數是可以控制的, 在G4中我們也看到了小熊是多快就將落後分數一舉擴大, 對, 派上較差的後援投手可以幫助你做到這些事. 其中一個原因, Strop 和 Rondon也許都不在狀況內. 前者在季末由於傷勢, 錯過了超過一個月的賽事直到九月底才歸隊. 而後者也因為手部問題在季末錯過了幾週的比賽. 另一部分, Chapman的固定暖身習慣使他無法提早上班, 使得在第三戰那情形時, 小熊無法派上陣中最佳的後援投手解決危機.




It all boils down to this: Cleveland’s triumvirate of relievers consists of baseball’s most prolific reliever over the last four years, the fourth-most prolific reliever, and then Miller, who can not only be ready to enter the game at a moment’s notice but also has the ability to throw north of 40 pitches unphased. The Cubs, on the other hand, have a trio that’s just as talented as Cleveland’s — if not more so — but consists of two relievers potentially hindered by injury, and one reliever
admittedly hindered by his routine.


更重要的是, 克城三巨頭的貢獻是近四年來最佳的.
Miller隨插隨用還能處變不驚的上場投40球. 反觀小熊, 擁有(也許) 更加的三人組, 但因為傷勢關係影響其中兩人的表現, 另一人也無法像Miller般隨插隨用.


“It’s hard to do that,” Maddon said after Friday’s Game Four loss, referring to Cleveland’s bullpen usage. “It really is. And everybody’s going to be clamoring, ‘That’s the way you should work your bullpens from now on,’ but you have to have the appropriate people to do that, and of course during the season it would be much more difficult as opposed to the microcosm of the postseason. So I think that’s it. They have the right guys among their pitchers to do that, and Kluber kind of like gives
them a blow, like what he did tonight.”


當談到對手牛棚使用方式, “這太難了“, 風城教頭Maddon回應, “大家都跟我說我應該要這樣用我的牛棚, 但前提是, 牛的說明書是允許這樣用的”
”他們有對的人讓他們做這樣的事, Kluber強勢的表現也讓他們的牛棚能有喘息空間“


Whether attributed to heath, routine, score, or managerial aggressiveness, the Cubs have seen two leads get out of hand and a tie game blown, all while their regular season’s most important relievers were available to pitch, but were not in the game. The Cubs paid a steep price to acquire Chapman to complement an already great one-two, late-inning punch in Rondon and Strop, no doubt in hopes of receiving World Series results similar to what Cleveland has gotten from Miller, Allen, and Shaw. Yet, those
three relievers have combined to throw just six innings, and less than three of consequence. Chicago’s bullpen has been a non-factor in the World Series, a hindrance, even, but it isn’t for a lack of talent.


不管是什麼原因, 小熊兩度在平手時, 讓他們的陣中最佳後援投手在場邊看著球隊被超前,最後導致吞下兩場敗仗也是一件不爭的事實.
小熊付出極大的代價換來了Chapman,搭配原先陣中就很好的 Rondon及Strop, 我們毫無道理不相信他們有能力幫助球隊獲得和印地安人相同的結果. 然後, 他們三人僅在世界大賽中貢獻六局, 使得他們無法對球隊做出什麼貢獻.
風城球隊的牛棚在前四場無法對賽局做出什麼貢獻, 甚至是奪冠路上的阻礙, 並不能說是他們不夠好.





有錯請鞭小力點

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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1477855625.A.1B8.html
推 HappyboyEric: 感謝翻譯！！！
推 kenkenken31: 推，國外也懂鄉民季後調度法，不先推強的就是蠢
推 goopa: 內文也說了,小熊牛棚前三好的投手有兩位因為傷(等原因)狀況
→ goopa: 不好,而不允許Maddon做出太過積極的調度...
→ goopa: 就像印地安人前三好的SP有兩人因傷而無法出場貢獻局數...
→ goopa: 而這兩位SP是季前很多人(令人意外)的在美中預測印地安人可
→ goopa: 以擊敗衛冕世界大賽冠軍皇家拿下中區錦旗的關鍵~
→ goopa: 但沒有他們的貢獻,印地安人也無法走到現在這邊,所以後面的
→ goopa: 路就由隊友幫忙把他們扛過終點線吧~
推 Roshiel: 馬後砲，Strop跟軟豆那種骰子控球，敢用才奇怪
→ Roshiel: 芒果，木頭好投的時候就看不到....
→ Roshiel: 事實上就是，目前小熊的牛只是火球是夠穩的，其他都要看
→ Roshiel: 調度跟狀況
推 mightymouse: 小熊不用也真的沒辦法,大部分時間都落後怎麼用?
這點文中也有提到
但記者也提到 像是G4那情況, 如果上的是三人之一
減少失分後面或許有機會

推 KotoriCute: 誰叫當初小熊不願意用更多潛力新秀換Miller
XD 一分錢一分貨？
推 yrt3168: 我只覺得從國聯冠軍戰開始 小熊就是一直 Montgomery XDDD
推 Ivers: 小熊問題還是打擊吧?
推 mhkt: 不看牛棚的話 小熊打線真的是不振..... 看看笑臉人場場豪打
→ Ivers: 中三日威力明顯下降的Kluber都能80球6局下庄了xd
推 Ivers: 鳥飛 三球三振 一球dp 鮮少球打得結實但進手套
→ Ivers: 連我都看不下去啦~~~~
※ 編輯: mike5314 (35.2.175.186), 10/31/2016 08:22:35
推 oralboralb: D. Roberts聰明多了  Jansen一直用就好了
推 mightymouse: 問題在打線啊,沒辦法先取得領先牛棚再強也沒屁用
→ mightymouse: 笑臉人最成功的一點是總能在中段取得領先
作者就是認為在中段有危機時, 就該推上陣中最好的牛
而不是把他們留到最後
推 UKG: Montgomery一直上是因為先發局數吃不夠造成的
※ 編輯: mike5314 (35.2.175.186), 10/31/2016 09:31:47
推 mightymouse: 在心理上領先跟落後還是有很大的差別,領先的球隊當然
→ mightymouse: 可以很大膽的用,可是落後的球隊壓力更大用要很小心
推 Kaili: 水k
推 dicapo: 小熊那兩隻真的不是說很穩......
推 newest: 打線都不用負責的，科科
推 BanJarvan4: 皮甲!皮甲!
※ Heyward:轉錄至看板 Cubs                                         10/31 14:21
推 f2209237788: 問題在打擊吧 打者都像中邪一樣不選球在揮空氣
推 yaki1982: 小熊打擊斷線問題比較大
推 manny875468: 短期競賽就是這樣，誰打的好誰的贏面就大，投手在猛
→ manny875468: 還是得得分吧
噓 typhoonnat: 結果論