[外電] 讓他好好上場吧 - Byron Buxton

[kelpiejo (開啤酒)]

昨天翻譯了一篇Cole，就馬上拿到W
今天試試看Byron Buxton XD

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/let-him-play/

I got asked the question in my chat this week. Dave also got asked it in his.
What do you do to solve Byron Buxton‘s problems at the plate? This is
essentially the question. People want to know. The answer, to me, is you let
him play. It seems that we get these questions each April about a phenom
struggling in his first taste of a full major league season. So while I’m
writing this piece with Buxton in mind and as the lead example, it is also
sort of universal.

這禮拜我和Dave Cameron都被球迷問了一樣的問題：Byron Buxton打擊的狀況，有解嗎？
真是大哉問，大家都想知道。我的答案是，就讓他上場吧。每年四月，新人大物開始第一
個完整的MLB球季，一開始在打擊表現挫折的時候，大家總有類似的疑問。所以，這一篇
文章雖然是在寫Buxton，但其實也是一個蠻通用的例子的。

I want to start by going back to 2006 and 2007. Dustin Pedroia was the first
pick of the Red Sox’s 2004 draft, though he was actually a second-round
pick. He came into the 2006 season with a little heat — Baseball America
ranked him #77 in their top 100. And he would do well at Pawtucket that
season — he hit .305/.384/.426 there, good for a 131 wRC+, in 493 plate
appearances for Boston’s Triple-A affiliate. But when he was called up to
the Show in late August, he was a shadow of that player. In 98 PA with the
big club, he hit .191/.258/.303, good for a lowly 41 wRC+. Not great.
Baseball America dropped him from their top 100 heading into 2007.

Nevertheless, heading into the 2007 season, manager Terry Francona named
Pedroia his starting second baseman. The move would quickly become unpopular.
Pedroia would tally 55 PA in April 2007, and in them he hit .182/.308/.236,
which equated to a 51 wRC+. Many in Boston were howling for him to be
replaced, demoted, sacrificed at the feet of the Paul Revere statue, etc. But
you could see Pedroia putting it together. For the month, he had drawn 10
walks and only struck out six times. In May, he would reward his manager’s
loyalty. From May 3 to May 9, he would reach base in 12 of 19 PA — six
singles, three doubles, two walks and a homer. For the month, he’d post a
186 wRC+. Six months later, he’d be a World Series champion and the American
League Rookie of the Year.

讓時光倒流，回到2006和2007吧。紅襪在2004年的第一個選秀順位Dustin Pedroia帶著大
家的期望進入2006球季，BA的百大新秀把他排在第77名，他在AAA的表現也確實不錯，493
個打席，三圍 .305/ .384 /.426 和131的wRC+。不過八月底被叫上大聯盟後，98個打席
三圍只有 .191/ .258 /.303和 41的wRC+，不太好。2007年開季前，連BA的百大新秀都沒
有入選。

不過，2007開季，教頭Francona還是把Pedroia列為開季先發二壘手，馬上備受批評。
Pedroia在2007年四月的55個打席，三圍 .182/ .308/ .236，wRC+ 51。波士頓人開始呼
籲把Pedroia換掉、下放、或是綁到古人的雕像下面獻祭算了。但Pedroia其實是開始漸入
佳境，四月拿到10次保送，只被三振6次，五月的表現更是回報了Francona的信任。五月
三號到五月九號，19個打席，他成功上壘19次，六支一壘安打，三支二壘安打，兩個保送
，和一發全壘打，最後五月份的wRC+是186。那年他幫球隊拿下了世界大賽冠軍，也成為
美聯年度新秀。

A month after Pedroia was crowned Al RoY, Carlos Gonzalez was part of a
parcel of prospects sent from Arizona to Oakland in exchange for pitcher Dan
Haren. He would get the call to the majors at the end of May, and for the
next three months he started in the A’s outfield — mostly in center, but a
little in right. And for those three months, he hit terribly. From the time
of his call-up to August 27, when he was mercifully (or cruelly, depending on
your point of view) sent back to the minors, he hit .240/.271/.364 in 296 PA,
which equaled a 67 wRC+. In that timespan, he hit just 4 homers. He walked in
just 4.1% of his PAs, and struck out in 25.7% of them. That’s probably not a
jarring strikeout rate to you these days, but in 2008, it was abhorrent.
Among those who tallied 300+ PA in 2008, Gonzalez’s K% was the 20th-worst.
(For context, the same K% with the same parameters would have only been 44th
worst last season.)

Gonzalez would be back in the majors by mid-September, presumably because the
minor league season was over by then, but he didn’t get as much to do. Four
times he entered a game as a pinch hitter, and he tallied just 20 PA between
Sept. 18 and the end of the season. He would post the same disappointing 67
wRC+.

2007季後，Carlos Gonzalez被交易到運動家，成為Dan Haren交易的包裹。2008年五月底
，被叫上了大聯盟，然後先發了三個月，大多在中外野，也守了一點點右外野。這三個月
他的打擊非常糟糕，一直到八月底被慈悲地（或是殘忍地，看你怎麼解讀）下放之前，296個打席交出了.240 /.271 /.364的三圍，wRC+ 67。這段時間他只打了四
轟，保送率4.1%，三振率25.7%。這三振率以現代眼光看起來還好，但是在2008，這數字
很惹人嫌，當年300個打席以上的球員，CarGo的三振率是第20高的。（這個三振率在2016
年，300個打席以上的球員，只會排在第44高。）

九月中Gonzalez被叫回大聯盟，大概是因為小聯盟球季結束了，但他上來之後沒太多出場
機會，代打了四場比賽，到季末只再多看了20個打席的球，wRC+是一樣令人失望的67。

A month and change later, the A’s would ship him off to the Rockies in a
package for Matt Holliday. The cycle of the previous season would repeat
itself, with Gonzalez getting the call to the majors at the beginning of June
2009. And once again, he was terrible. He posted a 48 wRC+ for the month of
June. That was a tumultuous month for the Rockies. After the team stumbled to
an 18-28 record at the end of May, the team jettisoned manager Clint Hurdle
in favor of Jim Tracy, and immediately took off. They went 21-7 in June, and
when July rolled around, they were suddenly 41-37, and once again harboring
playoff aspirations. And their phenom outfielder was hitting .210. What would
you do?

Well, it wasn’t exactly clean, because in Ryan Spilborghs, Dexter Fowler,
Seth Smith and Brad Hawpe, the team already had four outfielders who
commanded their fair share of playing time. But despite that quartet, they
kept running Gonzalez out there. From July 1 through Aug. 29, he started 28
of the team’s 53 games, and he played in 14 of the games he didn’t start,
which was more than he deserved given his shoddy performance to date and the
solid players already in the team’s outfield. But in that time, he took off.
He racked up 128 PA, and hit .336/.405/.645, good for a 159 wRC+ that earned
him the full-time job for good. He’s never looked back, and at the time,
Tracy’s steady hand and patience to keep running him out there in the face
of his overwhelming failures was credited as reason why. The Rockies would
indeed live to see Rocktober that season, and Gonzalez was a big reason why.
Despite only tallying 317 PA for the season, he was the Rockies’ fourth-most
valuable position player.

季後，CarGo又變成交易籌碼，在Matt Holliday的交易中被運動家送到洛磯。上一個球季
的循環又再次出現，CarGo在2009年六月初被叫上大聯盟，再度打得很爛，整個六月交出
了48的wRC+。那個月的洛磯也是紛紛擾擾，到五月底戰績只有18勝28敗，教頭Clint
Hurdle被炒魷魚，Jim Tracy走馬上任，然後戰績就起飛了，六月拿了21勝7敗，以41勝37
敗的成績進入七月，燃起了衝擊季後賽的希望。這時候陣中大物外野手打擊率才兩成一，
你要是總仔，你會怎麼做？

其實沒那麼單純，因為落磯當時已經有Spilborghs、Fowler、Seth Smith和Hawpe四個外
野手再輪替，再加上一直拿到出場機會的CarGo。七月一號開始的53場比賽，CarGo先發了
28場，沒先發的比賽他也出賽了14場，以他六月的表現和外野的競爭程度，根本不配拿到
這麼多的機會，但是CarGo也起飛了：128個打席他交出了 .336/ .405/ .645的三圍，相
當於159的wRC+，終於讓他得到穩固的地位。Tracy付出的耐心和信任是CarGo可以破繭而
出的重要原因，落磯最後能進入季後賽，CarGo也是重要的拼圖，雖然只有317個打席，但
是他卻是洛磯陣中價值第四高的野手。（譯按：如果以BR的WAR，CarGo排在第五。）

These are far from the only two examples. And obviously finding an
apples-to-apples comparison is hard to find. That’s baseball. You can’t
always find a perfect comparison for things, but you don’t need a perfect
comparison for the comparison to be instructive. In these two examples, we
have players who were given ample time to fail, and with that time, they
eventually succeeded. The same was true of Jackie Bradley Jr. He fell on his
face in his 2013 trial, when he was rushed to the bigs. But in 2014, he
basically got the whole season. He lost playing time in August to Mookie
Betts, though that was understandable, given that Betts was an equally
talented phenom, and that Bradley still wasn’t hitting. When Betts came up
for good on Aug. 18, Bradley was hitting .216/.288/.290, for a 60 wRC+.
Bradley never found success across this 387 PA stretch — he wouldn’t really
put it together until a year later — but the point is that he was given that
387 PA stretch. You know who hasn’t had a stretch like that in the majors?
Byron Buxton.

可不是只有Paddy和CarGo兩個例子而已。要找到兩個完全一模一樣的案例來比較很困難，
棒球就是這樣，沒辦法事事都完美地比較，但不需要完美相符合的案例，我們也可以做出
有意義的比較。上面這兩個例子，即便掙扎，球員都拿到了充裕的時間來適應，最後才能
成功，對Jackie Bradley Jr也是如此，他2013年被趕鴨子上架時，他打得灰頭土臉，
2014還是拿到了一整季的上場時間（八月他的出場被Mookie Betts壓縮了，但是可以理解
，因為Betts也是個大物），但是JBJ打擊還是不行，當Betts八月中上大聯盟時，JBJ的三
圍只有 .216/ .288 /.290，387個打席都沒辦法讓JBJ找到棒子（又過了一年才終於在打
擊開竅了），但重點是球隊還是給了他387個打席。你知道誰還沒被給那麼多機會嗎？
Byron Buxton。

Let’s take a look at Buxton’s playing time in each of the times he’s been
in the majors

來看看Buxton每次上大聯盟的時候的上場時間。

http://i.imgur.com/a/Z9NKK

While Buxton now has built up nearly a season’s worth of plate appearances,
he’s done so sporadically. He’s never had the time to stretch his legs and
put together a body of 250, 300 PA without being demoted. He needs that
stretch now. After all, he’s still just 23. Are you really ready to give up
on a 23-year-old? Pedroia was 23 when he took off in 2007. So was Gonzalez,
when he took flight in 2009. Bradley wasn’t 25 until he hit his stride at
the end of 2015, and there were still plenty of people doubting him heading
into 2016.

看起來Buxton加總起來已經拿到了相當於一個完整球季的打席了，但其實非常的零碎，他
從來都沒有辦法好好地完整適應，拿個完整的250或是300個打席，就先被下放了，而這卻
是他現在需要的。不管怎麼樣，他才23歲耶，真的要放棄一個23歲的大物嗎？Pedroia
2007年起飛的時候23歲，Gonzalez 2009年也是23歲，JBJ在2015年底打擊開竅的時候25歲
，都還有一堆人繼續懷疑他呢。

But, you say — Buxton has already been good. Enough is enough, it’s time
for him to show progress. Progress, however, is not always linear. Mike
Cameron put up a 64 wRC+ in his age-25 season in 1998, a year after posting a
110 wRC+. After that 1998 season, the White Sox would send him off to the
Reds for Paul Konerko (which is a fascinating trade for another day), and the
Reds, Mariners and a host of other teams would be the beneficiaries when
Cameron finally did put it all together.

Turning to the B-Ref Play Index, a search for outfielders who posted a .300
OBP or less in the first 500 PA of their career (while playing their first
three seasons by the end of the their age-23 seasons) turns up plenty of
names you’ll recognize: Starling Marte, Carlos Delgado, Jay Buhner, Willie
Stargell, Kirk Gibson, Graig Nettles, Bernie Williams, David Justice, Bo
Jackson, Frank Thomas, Jim Edmonds, Preston Wilson, Shane Victorino, Jackie
Jensen, Cameron and Bradley. And that’s just outfielders. Now, not all of
those players would go on to post superlative OBP’s in their careers, but
they all improved, and Buxton doesn’t need to post a .380 OBP to be a great
player, given his prowess in the field and on the bases.

你還要再說，Buxton已經表現OK了，對嗎？夠了喔，現在讓他試著打出一些進度吧。所謂
進度其實不一定總是線性的，1998年，Mike Cameron 25歲的時候打出了64 wRC+的球季，
隔年進步到110。1998球季季後白襪把Cameron賣到紅人換來Paul Konerko（事後證明是個
很棒的交易），紅人、水手、和其他Cameron未來的東家都因為他在白襪拿到這麼多機會
來刺激打擊而蒙利。

做個功課，看看BR，找出生涯前500個打席，上壘率三成以下的球員（再加入一個條件，
23歲以前打不滿三個球季），出現了一票你我都認識的球員：Starling Marte、Carlos
Delgado、Jay Buhner、Willie Stargell、Kirk Gibson、Graig Nettles、Bernie
Williams、David Justice、Bo Jackson、Frank Thomas、Jim Edmonds、Preston Wilson
、Shane Victorino、Jackie Jensen、Cameron和Bradley，而且我還只有列出外野手喔。
並不是每個人都在上壘率大幅進步，但每個人確實都進步了，而且這是Buxton，以他守備
和跑壘的能力，他不需要靠三成八的上壘率才能被歸類為好球員吧。

Byron Buxton is off to a slow start this season, and for the most part, in
his career. But he was a highly touted prospect for a reason, and the Twins
owe it to themselves to learn from history, and just let him play.

Byron Buxton在2017球季起步慢了，甚至他的大聯盟生涯的起步都是慢的。但他被高度期
待不是沒有原因的，雙城應該看看歷史證據，好好讓他上場吧。

--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1492250343.A.549.html
推 sikerkuaitai: Buxton的問題可能比前幾位更麻煩...
推 carrhung: 但他的手套很值得啦 看看黑蛙…
推 doraemon8709: 城牆快來
→ tigertiger: 只要合約年運氣一來 大約一樣到手
推 sastl07: 可是Bux比上面講的這些人都爛非常多
推 knoxvillt: 推這篇文章 不管BUXTON現在表現如何 都值得繼續打下去
→ knoxvillt: 甚至完整球季 如果現在放棄真的很可惜
推 madeinheaven: 朴炳鎬:
推 abc12812: 前幾年還被評為不下Trout
推 OoyaoO: 他在3A也沒什麼好練的了
推 fcstone: 借轉，感謝～
→ kelpiejo: 附上譯者ID，轉錄隨意
推 sin17: 黑鱒
推 wu0h96p: 查一下今年出賽10場 OPS是0.213。。 加油吧!!
推 eddie909: K%太高啦，希望能長成吧
推 nolander: 所以我說那個城牆大大呢？
推 murmur38: 他的K好多 感覺已經是摸不摸得到球的問題了
推 per520520: 推
→ carrhung: 城牆大在FB板有PO一篇了啊XD
→ carrhung: #1OxZ9Tno (FBaseball)
→ interesting: 可是他連球都碰不到orz
推 Yginger1: 優文 推  想到去年季初神鱒也是打得跟屎一樣 也是一堆人
→ Yginger1: 質疑身手被看破了 一季結束 又回到MVP
推 ianshadow: 但是本文提的這幾位並沒有超過50%的被K率
→ wahaha5678: 他在3A練不到什麼東西,現在只能餵給他PA,期望他開竅
推 Eos: 去年季末看起來開竅了 沒想到今年季初又... 其實熱身賽還不差
推 Asucks: Bux根本變成風扇哥，跑再快上不了壘也沒用，只能拿來守備
推 sweetboy: 去年季末已證明潛力OK，現在這樣根本是心態出問題
推 htme: 才10場而已
推 andy880036s: 好文推推!
→ andy880036s: 跑得快有用啊  他可以靠短棒觸擊跑出內野安打(例如本
→ andy880036s: 季第3安XD) 還是一直抱著他會破繭而出的心態在期待著
→ sdiaa: https://youtu.be/cow0vwScxK4 沒有盯著球...
推 andy880036s: https://goo.gl/xYUWfF 這篇外電有討論瘋狂吞K的議題
→ andy880036s: https://goo.gl/Kdn6Nq 另一篇(這篇比較悲觀 認為他
→ andy880036s:                       最終只會成為Pillar這種打者
→ once1024: 不要變成純守備組就好了...
推 pujos: 吞K吞到突破天際
推 LeOniD0728: 看到CarGo那段 想到鋒哥..
推 dragon50119: 希望別成為下個Maybin...
→ pantient: 同樣被雙城丟掉的hicks反而在恩歪歪破繭而出
推 c871111116: 也不是破繭吧  Hicks在雙城代班外野時就打不錯了~
推 andy880036s: Hicks不算被丟啦 是交易(但J.R.Murphy的表現....跟丟
→ andy880036s: 了也差不多QQ
推 Eddward: Maybin其實也算破繭而出了
→ pantient: 沒有喔Hicks今年不論是選球還是擊球型態都好到不可思議
推 andy880036s: 然後Buxton剛剛首打席又被K掉惹
推 andy880036s: 第三打席2B!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
推 t700: 看到這立馬想到我基鳥哥XD
→ kelpiejo: 感覺我FB低潮的都可以一個一個拿出來找文章翻譯了！
推 hok: 推
→ GarrettLin: Tracy 也能給鋒哥那麼多機會就好了
→ kyokofan: 鋒哥的問題是防守太爛，連回台灣都沒辦法當外野手
推 danmarch: Pedroia 那段有錯，19打席上壘"12"次
推 ByronBuxton: 推
推 jasonchen31: 還有 swanson呢
推 herger: 台灣的郭俊佑表示：