[外電] 這些打者是僥倖或真材實料？

[PPLong889 (屁屁龍泡泡)]

如果有翻譯的意思錯誤或者對球員的了解不深導致的謬誤，
請大家提供修改建議哦。謝謝！

------------------------------分隔線-----------------------------------

標題：MLB Fantasy Baseball: Are These Hitters Flukes Or The Real Deal?

來源：Elite Sports NY

網址：https://goo.gl/f051yi

By Lawrence Doto 05/17/2017

標題：這些打者是僥倖或真材實料？

It’s time for ESNY to assess which players are for real and
which players are not for your MLB Fantasy Baseball squad.

也該是本刊(ESNY)評估哪些球員是真有實力，
或者哪些球員不值得列入MLB夢幻名單中的時候了。

There are hitters who are off to hot starts in the first six weeks of the
season
but how can you tell if a player is legitimate?
Has the hitter made changes to their swing or are they just getting lucky?
This is the biggest challenge when deciding to target a player
in a trade or adding them in free agency.

大聯盟開打的前六週，出現許多棒子火燙的打者，
但你能分辨這些人是否真材實料嗎？
是球員改變了揮棒方式？或者他們只是運氣好？
要做出選定打者列入交易目標，
或者讓他們成為自由球員的決定，將會是極大的挑戰。

There are some big names that got drafted early that are off to slow starts
also,
is it time to panic? I spent five years as a baseball instructor so I am
going to
try to pull out my inner trainer and combine that with my inner nerd for
fantasy baseball.
Let’s look at the players who are off to a surprising start and
the ones who are off to frustrating starts.

有一些會優先選入夢幻名單中的大咖球員，開季表現並不理想，
是開始驚慌的時候嗎？
我擔任教練有五年的時間，所以我嘗試著以自己所受的訓練
與知識來評估以下幾位大聯盟開季以來有令人驚豔的好表現的球員，
以及讓人不太滿意的開季表現的球員。

http://imgur.com/6OOWgP2
May 3, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Oakland Athletics first baseman
Yonder Alonso (17) hits a two-run home run during the fourth inning
against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field.
Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
2017年5月3日，美國明尼蘇達州的明尼阿波利斯，
奧克蘭運動家隊在Target Field球場與明尼蘇達雙城隊比賽時，
一壘手Yonder Alonso在第四局擊出一支兩分全壘打。
照片轉載：Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

第一位：Yonder Alonso

Yonder Alonso has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year.
In his eight-year career, his high in home runs for a season was nine,
he already has twelve in thirty-five games this year. Many will jump to
the conclusion that he is on PED’s but he has made great changes in
his swing and his approach at the plate. He has been known as a gap
and line drive hitter in his career and he had a flatter swing than
most and he almost had no leg kick.

Yonder Alonso是今年最讓人感到驚奇的球員之一，
在他八年的大聯盟生涯中，單一球季擊出全壘打的最高紀錄是9支，
但今年開季至今已經在35場比賽中擊出了12支全壘打。
很多人也許會直接推論他是用了體能增強藥劑(PED)，
但原因是Yonder Alonso對他的揮棒方式以及打擊策略做了很大的改變。
在過去他被認為是具有長打能力的打者，職業生涯中多半能打出平飛球，
而他揮棒的角度較平且幾乎沒有抬腿動作。

This year in spring training, he added a leg kick and he is keeping his hands
higher.
How does a leg kick make a big difference in hitting?
When you are hitting a baseball, all of your power comes from your legs and
hips.
The leg kick is giving him more power on his swing and
it is allowing him to stay back on the ball.

今年春訓時，他增加了高抬腿動作並且把手舉得更高。
高抬腿對於打擊怎麼會有如此大的改變呢？
當你打中球的時候，所有的擊球力量是源自於腿及臀部，
高抬腿可以在揮棒時給予更多力量，並且可以讓球員把球跟得更進來些。

Alonso also changed his launch angle when he hits the baseball.
Why is that important? Well if a coach tells a player to get on top of the
ball,
that is incorrect. When you get on top of the ball you don’t have a good
chance
of hitting the ball in the air or hitting the ball for power.
Launch angle is one of the newest sabermetric stat that scouts and GM’s are
looking at.
Yonders launch angle in 2016 was below average at 10.3 (10.8 was the league
average).

Yonder Alonso也改變了他的擊球角度，為何這如此重要？
如果有教練告訴一位球員要打球的上緣，這是不對的。
當你擊中球的上緣，你不會把球打到空中，或者打出強而有力的球。
擊球角度是球探與球隊總經理在大數據分析統計(sabermetric)時所最新關注的焦點。
Yonder Alonso在2016年的擊球角度是低於平均的10.3，而大聯盟平均是10.8。

He made changes and now his launch angle is 19.9, the 26th highest mark.
That nine degrees in launch angle is helping him put the ball in the air
more.
The leg kick and the launch angle are what is driving his success this season.

今年他做了改變，如今他的擊球角度是19.9，這是第26大的角度。
而這比去年增加的9度，幫助他打出更多飛球。
高抬腿與擊球角度改變，是驅使他今年球季更成功的兩大因素。

The results for Alonso are because of his added leg kick and his improved
launch angle.
With these two fundamental changes, he is having a career year and if he
keeps them up,
the home run numbers will continue.
Alonso is for real but I would not expect 35+ homer more along the line of
25-32.

Yonder Alonso的成績是歸功於他增加高抬腿動作，以及改善了擊球角度。
有了這兩項基礎因素的改變，他創造了生涯高峰，
假如他繼續保持下去，還會繼續產出更多全壘打。
他的成績是真材實料，但我認為他今年不會打出超過35支的全壘打，
產量約是落在25到32支之間。

http://imgur.com/pUg06HS
May 9, 2017; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets left fielder
Michael Conforto (30) tosses his bat after hitting a home run in the seventh
inning
against the San Francisco Giants at Citi Field.
Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
2017年5月9日，美國紐約州的紐約市，
紐約大都會隊在花旗球場與舊金山巨人隊比賽時，
左外野手Michael Conforto在第七局擊出全壘打時甩掉他的球棒。
照片轉載：Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

第二位：Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto is finally getting the playing time he deserves;
the hot start is no fluke. He hasn’t done anything fundamentally like Yonder
Alonso
that is making him a better hitter, he is finally getting the at bats and
he isn’t going to slow down anytime soon.

Michael Conforto終於得以展現實力，開季火燙的表現絕非僥倖。
他並非如同前面所說的Yonder Alonso一樣做了基礎功夫的改變
而成為火燙的打者，而是他終於得到更多出賽機會(打數)，
並且不想太快就表現不好。

He is a legitimate top of the lineup hitter and if Terry Collins doesn’t
over-manage
and take him out of the lineup, he will continue to produce.
He hits the ball to left center with good pop and that tells me that
he stays back on the ball and he is seeing it come out of the pitcher’s hand
well.
Hitters that consistently hit the ball to the opposite field with power
are the definition of good hitters.
If he is available in your league, pick him up.
He is a good player to target in trades because he his owner might not
believe in his ability.
He is a good player to have in dynasty and in keeper leagues.
Conforto can finish the year as a top 50 hitter.

Michael Conforto在先發陣容中已經是優異的打者，
如果Terry Collins(總教練)不要過度操他，
而讓他離開先發陣容的話，他一定能有更多貢獻。
他能將球巧妙地打到中左外野，
這表示他能很清楚地看到球離開投手的手，
並且把球跟得更進來些。
一位好的打擊者，是能夠持續並有力地把球打到相反方向的。
如果Michael Conforto在你的聯盟中是有價值的，就選他吧！
他是個交易的好標的，因為目前的球隊可能還不夠信任他的能力。
Michael Conforto能夠成為今年前50位頂尖的打者，
他是王朝與keeper盟(保有大多數球員)中值得擁有的一位好球員。

http://imgur.com/JERFusf
May 6, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Cleveland Indians designated hitter
Edwin Encarnacion (10) looks on from the dugout during a game against
the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium.
Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
2017年5月6日，美國密蘇里州的堪薩斯城，
克里夫蘭印地安人隊在Kauffman Stadium與堪薩斯皇家隊比賽時，
指定打擊Edwin Encarnacion在板凳上觀看場上比賽狀況。
照片轉載：Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

第三位：Edwin Encarnacion

Edwin Encarnacion is struggling this year and he is starting to frustrate his
owners
who used a high draft pick or kept him this year. Why is he struggling?
His strikeout percentage is up nine percent from last year
(19.7% in 2016 to 28.7% in 2017). This is a little alarming considering he
only
had two years in his career where he had more than 100 strikeouts,
he already has 45 this year.

Edwin Encarnacion今年打得很掙扎，
他今年才剛到手一張大肥約，但卻開始讓球隊老闆不太滿意。
為何他會打得不好呢？
他的三振率比去年提高了9%(從2016年的19.7%到2017年的28.7%)，
之前他的生涯中只有兩年有超過100次的三振，
而今年至今則已經有45次三振了。這是一個小警訊。
(注：2008年三振102次；2016年三振138次。)

When you are striking out more, you are taking fewer walks and
putting the ball in play less. Also, his isolated power numbers are down by
a lot. Last year his ISO was .266
(.140 is about league average for isolated power)
and this year it is at .135.

當你的三振愈多時，你能選到的四壞球愈少，也愈少能把球擊出去。
再者，Edwin Encarnacion的純長打率
(長打率SLG扣掉打擊率AVG)下降很多，
去年的純長打率(ISO)是.266，今年則是.135。
(聯盟平均的純長打率是.140)

That tells me he is not driving the ball with power and
with the high strikeout numbers, that is worrisome.
However, he is walking four percent more than last year which
means he is seeing the ball well.
He is way too good of a hitter and he has been
consistent over the last handful of years to have gained our trust.

高三振數代表他無法有力地咬中球，這是令人擔憂的。
然而，他的保送率則比去年提高了4%，這表示他選球變好了。
他是個極優秀的打者，並且曾經以多年來一致的好表現贏得我們的信任。

We are only in week six of a six-month long season.
I just traded for EE in one of my leagues and I believe he will turn it
around.
If you are starting to get worried, I would hold on to him
for a couple more week but make sure you have a plan B in mind.

大聯盟六個月的球季，只進行了六週，
而我才剛交易到Edwin Encarnacion，我相信他將會轉好。
如果你開始擔心了，我會再觀察他幾週，
但會確保你心中已經有個備案。

http://imgur.com/stXZEvc
May 5, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies first baseman
Mark Reynolds (12) runs the bases after hitting a solo home run during
the fourth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field.
Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
2017年5月5日，美國科羅拉多州的丹佛市，
科羅拉多洛磯隊在Coors Field球場與亞利桑那響尾蛇隊比賽時，
一壘手Mark Reynolds在第四局打出陽春全壘打時的跑壘。
照片轉載：Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

第四位：Mark Reynolds

One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season has been Mark Reynolds,
but why is he such a surprise? He has had four seasons of at least 28 home
runs
in the past and now he is hitting in the best hitters park in the league.
Reynolds has always had great power and now he is in one of the best lineups
in the National League too. He plays good defense and that will keep him in
the lineup.
I have him in every league that I am in and he has a realistic chance of
hitting 45 home runs this year.

2017年球季的大驚奇之一，就是Mark Reynolds。
但他為何讓人驚訝呢？
在過去他有四個球季的全壘打產量都至少有28支，
況且今年他是在號稱聯盟打者天堂的洛磯隊打球。
Mark Reynolds有著極佳的打擊爆發力，
而且也在國聯強隊之一的先發陣容中，
他有優異的守備能力，讓他能固定先發。
今年他有擊出45支全壘打的實力，不管在哪個聯盟我都會選他。

His swing was meant for Coors Field. All the numbers are pointing that
this is legitimate and the only thing that will slow him down is an injury.
Do not sell on Reynolds this year, he will be the biggest free agent pick him
in fantasy
and he can carry us to a championship this year.

Coors Field球場對他的打擊是有利的，所有數據都指出，
他是個有實力的打者，唯一能讓他表現不好的，只有受傷因素。
不要輕易把Mark Reynolds交易出去，否則他會成為最大咖的自由球員，
而是應該把他放入夢幻陣容中，因為他會帶領球隊邁向今年的冠軍。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 150.117.99.138
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1495356644.A.FD3.html
推 accjm2440: Reynolds我季中撿過後來放掉了...
→ accjm2440: Alonzo剛放生..........
推 cartoonbear: He has been known as a gap
→ cartoonbear: and line drive hitter in his career   裡面的gap
→ cartoonbear: 應該是指他是個有gap power的打者意思?
大大的意思應該比較正確，立刻修改，謝謝！
推 ghoster7: 謝謝翻譯，推Alonso
→ terrorist: There are some big names that got drafted early不是
→ terrorist: 年初拿到肥約, 是玩 fantasy baseball 大家搶先收納,
已修改，謝謝！
推 nuggets0916: Pillar今年也破繭而出記得去年就有文章分析他的打擊
推 andy880036s: keeper leagues直接翻keeper盟就好了 是fantasy專有
→ andy880036s: 名詞XD  翻譯辛苦了
已修改，謝謝！
推 AMartial: EE第一段應該是前面生涯只有兩年超過100K，但現在已經45
→ AMartial: K了?
抱歉，剛剛在看GP正賽，已修改，謝謝！
推 cuteboy814: 白襪的 A Garcia 今年也是打得出乎意料地猛
推 andy880036s: 光芒Dickerson也很讚 今天又雙響~
推 Roshiel: EE應該不用擔心，去年此時Votto還說要退休
推 ru0701: 還以為會有小卡布XD
推 bestteam: Votto去年到底發生甚麼事前面超爛後面超強
→ japan428: 看標題以為會有Eric Thames
推 carrhung: 我也以為會有Eric Thames
推 jefftie2000: 我也以為會有Thames XD
推 jardon: 好的打教上天堂 在教士就是把alonso養成廢x
推 Kobelephants: Reynolds有優異的守備能力？
推 joy2105feh: 比較想看僥倖的人 XDDD
推 TokyoHard: 有些應該是要FA了
推 wsx1678904: Alonso好好跑你的F1啦 跑去跑什麼Indy 500和棒球
推 swingboy: 以為Judge也會出現在名單
※ 編輯: PPLong889 (150.117.99.138), 05/21/2017 20:57:17
推 mrkey: Zack Cozart!
推 jackytao: He is a legitimate top of the lineup hitter 講的應
→ jackytao: 該是Conforto是可以擔任前段打線(類似的意思，原po可以
→ jackytao: 找比較順的翻)的意思？
推 jww: hicks進這名單也不意外吧
推 Arsenalhenry: 推Conforto
推 decorum: got drafted early指選秀時很前面被挑走的啦