[外電] 國聯西區：哪隊夠銀兩，好追得上躲人？

[pneumo (超☆冒險蓋)]

來源：ESPN
網址：http://tinyurl.com/ya3ojue3

NL West offseason preview: Who can afford to keep up with the Dodgers?
國聯西區：哪隊夠銀兩，好追得上躲人？


With free agency about to get underway, the offseason is going to pick up
steam. What are the big questions facing all 30 teams?
隨著FA開始後，休賽季也慢慢開始加溫，到底聯盟30隊各自面臨的最大的問題會是甚麼呢?


Los Angeles Dodgers: How many Japanese stars will they have in 2018?
We know that the Dodgers will have Kenta Maeda back, probably in the starting
rotation. However, his ability to rev up his stuff as a short reliever in the
postseason and throw multiple innings out of the bullpen certainly adds to
his value. Beyond Maeda, the Dodgers' biggest offseason question mark is
whether they will (or even should) bring back Maeda's countryman, Yu Darvish.
洛杉磯躲人: 到底2018年他們會有幾個日本球員呢?
我們知道躲人會把前田健太續留下，也許會放到先發輪值內。然而，他在今年季後以後援
上陣表現傑出，從牛棚出發卻可以投多局，讓他的價值上揚。除了前田外，躲人休賽季最
大的問題會是：他們會不會(或是該不該)把前田的同胞--達比修--簽回來呢?


Darvish is one of the top 20 or so starting pitchers in baseball. Every time
someone walks up to you and says he folds under pressure, just repeat those
words. It doesn't change the fact that Darvish flopped in the exact same
fashion in the World Series, but let's not lose sight of the fact that he's
one of baseball's best pitchers. The question is now how much he's worth on
the open market and whether that price tag is one the Dodgers can swallow.
L.A. has internal options -- its rotation was one of baseball's best in 2017
even before the Dodgers added Darvish. And they have young pitchers who will
gradually be added to that mix, especially hard-throwing righty Walker
Buehler. Eventually, they'll get Julio Urias back as well.
若是有人跟你說達比修被壓力擊垮這類的話，請記得回他，「達比修是聯盟最佳20個先發
投手之一」。雖然這不能改變達比修今年在世界大賽被擊垮的事實，但是不要忽略他是聯
盟最佳投手之一的事實。現在的問題是達比修在市場的價值現在有多少，而躲人願不願意
付那個價碼。躲人有些內部的人選--躲人2017年的先發輪值是聯盟最佳，在還沒加入達比
修之前就已經是最佳的了。而且他們有年輕的投手逐漸成熟可以使用，尤其是強力右投
Walker Buehler。還有，Julio Urias也會回來。


But it's also possible that by splurging for Darvish, you might send some
favorable signals to yet another Japanese player, super free agent Shohei
Otani -- the Babe Ruth of the other side of the Pacific. Otani, because of
baseball's tight new restrictions on international spending, is going be
considering non-financial factors. L.A. has a huge Japanese population, which
you would think is a good thing in how Otani perceives the city. And he's
friendly with Darvish.
但是藉由花大把銀子在達比修身上，躲人可能也發出個訊息另外一個日本超級FA大谷翔
平--日本版的Babe Ruth。因為聯盟新的對國際簽約金的嚴格限制，大谷可能還會考慮錢以
外的因素。洛杉磯有廣大的日本人口，大谷可能會因此對洛杉磯有好印象。而且，大谷跟
達比修是好朋友。


Whatever happens, the Dodgers will be loaded again in 2018. That makes the
possibility of a Darvish-Otani package deal that much more tantalizing.
不管如何，躲人的2018陣容也是滿滿，那讓這筆「達比修-大谷套餐」交易更顯誘人。


Arizona Diamondbacks: Can they afford to stay relevant?
Paul Goldschmidt is 29 years old. Zack Greinke is nearly 34. A.J. Pollock and
David Peralta are nearing 30. Jake Lamb will hit his age-27 season in 2018.
亞利桑那響尾蛇：他們夠銀兩維持戰力嗎?
Goldschmidt已經29歲，Z魔神快34惹，Pollock跟Peralta快30歲，Lamb明年會27歲。


All this is to say that the collective age of the Diamondbacks' core dictates
that they be in win-now mode. A big problem with that is the big outfielder,
J.D. Martinez, who is about to become a very rich man on the free-agent
market. Martinez put up a 1.107 OPS after Arizona traded for him this season,
and his presence in the lineup alongside Goldschmidt made the Diamondbacks a
special team down the stretch.
這些都說，響尾蛇的主要戰力年紀已經到了"要贏就是現在"的年紀。最大的問題會是在他
們的外野手JD Martinez，他會在今年的市場狠狠撈一大票。Martinez今年被響尾蛇交易
來，OPS有1.107，跟隊上Goldschmidt合體讓響尾蛇非常特別。


Can Arizona afford to keep him? Probably not. Not on a team with little
payroll flexibility and a high-earner in Greinke who eats up more than a
third of what the Diamondbacks can likely spend. So the question then
becomes, what's left, especially when it seems likely that as great as
Goldschmidt is, he's not likely to give us more than we've seen?
響尾蛇有銀兩把他留下來嗎? 大概沒有。在一個隊伍薪資總額已經沒什麼空間，而且隊上
有個Z魔神吃掉超過三分之一可以花的錢，是不可能留的下他的。所以下一個問題會是，
Goldschmidt表現已經到極限，他還有可能表現更傑出嗎？


Well, the standout category for the Diamondbacks was the starting pitching in
2017. That group was one of the worst in the majors in 2016. It's a group in
which regression seems all but a certainty. If that happens, and the lineup
loses Martinez, Arizona GM Mike Hazen is going to have to get creative to
keep Arizona in the playoff mix in 2018.
響尾蛇表現突出的部分在2017年是在先發，他們的先發在2016是爛到爆。他們再來的表現
應該是會退化；如果真的發生了，而且打擊又沒Martinez，響尾蛇若是2018年還想打季後
賽的話，總管可能就要有點創意了。


Colorado Rockies: How big will they dream?
The Rockies led the National League in runs scored, but their main priority
in the offseason should be adding another bat to a lineup that lacked depth.
The only three hitters with a park-adjusted OPS above league average were
Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Mark Reynolds, and Reynolds is a free
agent. Carlos Gonzalez is also a free agent and while he finished strong in
September, it's probably time to part ways with him. Now that they have their
most pitching depth in years, they can't be lulled into thinking the offense
is good enough.
科羅拉多落磯：夢要做的多大？
落磯在國聯得分排名領先，但是他們在休賽季最要優先處理的會是在他們的打擊深度再加
上一支。在根據球場調整OPS後，只有三個打者高於聯盟平均值--Charlie Blackmon，
Nolan Arenado跟Reynolds--而Reynolds是FA。Carlos Gonzalez在九月表現傑出，他也會
是FA，所以是時候跟他說掰掰惹。現在他們的投手在經過幾年後深度終於夠了，但是他們
不能就這樣安心，認為他們的打擊方面是夠好的。


The best solution: Giancarlo Stanton. Come on, Rockies, dream big. Imagine
what Stanton will do playing half his games at Coors Field. Yes, he's owed
$290 million over the next 10 seasons and he has an opt-out after 2020, but
the Rockies can afford him if they're willing to take on the money (and
Stanton agrees to the trade). Their only big-money contracts right now belong
to Ian Desmond and Arenado, and Arenado is a free agent after 2019. You need
to upgrade for that two-year window. Because of Stanton's contract, acquiring
him won't break the prospect bank. The Marlins won't get a prospect haul and
somebody to take on Stanton's entire deal. So, trade for Stanton and then
sign Carlos Santana to play first base for this lineup: Blackmon CF, DJ
LeMahieu 2B, Arenado 3B, Stanton RF, Santana 1B, Trevor Story SS, Gerardo
Parra LF, Tom Murphy C.
最好的方案: Stanton。拜託，落磯隊，夢可以做大一點。想想看Stanton在一整年的比賽
有一半在落磯主場打！是的，他未來十年有2億鎂的薪水，他在2020年有選擇跳出合約的權
利，但是若是洛磯願意付錢，他們是付得起的(然後Stanton也願意交易)。目前大筆合約是
Ian Desmond跟Arenado，而Arenado在2019年後會是FA。所以，落磯應該要為那兩年的空窗
做因應。所以，跟馬林魚交易換來Stanton，然後簽Carlos Santana守一壘，防守位置會
是:Blackmon中外，LeMahieu二壘，Arenado三壘，Stanton右外，Santana一壘，Trevor
Story游擊，Gerardo Parra左外, Tom Murphy捕手。


San Diego Padres: Will they make any kind of major move?
The Padres cut their payroll to the bone last year, lopping off 40 percent of
their 2016 payroll to bring expenses down to 29th in MLB on Opening Day in
2017. And despite doing that they didn't exactly tank, winning far more games
than expected. And even with expectations set low, they drew more than 2
million fans, so they didn't even suffer a penalty at the turnstiles for
"tanking."
聖地牙哥教士: 他們會有大動作嗎?
教士去年把薪資砍到見骨，砍了40趴，成為聯盟薪資排名第29名。即使是這樣，他們也沒
有真的"坦"，他們贏的比他們預期的多。即使對球隊戰績不期不待，還是有兩百萬的球迷
入場看球，所以他們也沒因為如此被罰錢。


One thing you shouldn't get worked up about is the difference between their
Pythagorean-projected record (which was 59-103) and their actual win-loss
total. Andy Green is a smart manager and is likely to still be in San Diego
for the next good Padres team, but he didn't work a 12-game dugout miracle.
That's just the math reflecting that when the Padres lost, they really lost,
suffering 36 losses by five or more runs. You can't lose an individual
blowout more than once; if the Padres improve their pitching depth just a
little bit, they might cut down on those blowout losses and provide those 2
million fans a few reasons to stick around for the end of a few more games.
有一件事不要太去深究，就是去了解為甚麼本來預期的戰績(59-103)跟最後教士的戰績
(71-91)有差距。教練Andy Green很聰明，明年也應該還會是教士的教練，他並沒有搞出多
贏12場的奇蹟。那只是個數學，反映出當教士真的輸的話，他們是真的輸，有36場輸超過5
分以上，救援失敗不可能超過一次。所以，若是教士稍微改善一下投手深度的話，他們或
許就可以把救援失敗的場次減少，讓那些進場支持的兩百萬球迷有更多的理由繼續留下來
看到最後。


擷取樓下一篇幫忙的翻譯的這段，我就不改我自己的，我翻譯的太爛，請多包涵
    "有件事情可能不該太在意：他們的畢氏期望戰績（59-103）與實際情況差距甚大。
    Andy Green 是很聰明的教頭，也很可能一直待到戰績有起色，但這 12 場勝差可
    不是靠他引發的奇蹟，只是簡單的數學，代表當教士輸球時常常輸個一屁股，有
    36 場輸了超過五分。不管輸得再多，都只算一場敗仗；即使教士只對投手陣容做
    出一丁點改善，就可能降低慘敗的次數，讓入場的百萬球迷有更多理由留到比賽
    結束。"

So, having restocked their farm system while chucking concern for their MLB
team, will they spend on anyone more expensive than simply re-signing Clayton
Richard for $6 million across two seasons? Or is that as crazy-spendy as
they're willing to get this winter while they wait for their prospects to
reach the majors?
所以，在把農場補充好後，他們會願意比只是簽Clayton Richard兩年6百萬鎂外，再多花
點錢嗎? 還是那就已經是他們最"瘋狂"的交易，然後就等冬天過去，等他們的新秀打進大
聯盟?


San Francisco Giants: How will they fix their outfield?
Flirting with 100 losses was a disaster, but it's worse when you consider the
Giants are supposed to be built to win now, to exploit the opportunity
created by keeping their core players -- Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey,
Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford -- together. But if the Giants want to get
that group back to the postseason, they have to actively fix their most
glaring problem. Their outfield is the one unit where the team has
overlapping problems. The Giants were last in the majors in home runs with
128 -- finishing more than 100 homers behind the Yankees' MLB-leading total
of 241 -- and their outfielders combined for the worst OPS total on the year
(.685, against the MLB average of .772). And their outfielders combined for
an MLB-worst minus-43 defensive runs saved, so as a unit they were costing
the Giants runs in both halves of every inning, all season long.
舊金山巨人：他們要怎麼補救他們的外野?
有100場輸球是場災難，但是當考慮到巨人本來想藉由把他們的核心球員--Bumgarner，
Posey，Brandon Belt跟Brandon Crawford--留下來是要贏球的，那就更是糟糕的噩夢。所
以若是巨人想要重返季後，他們得要積極處理他們最迫切的問題，他們的外野。巨人在全
壘打排名倒數，只有128支，輸洋基241支，超過100+；他們外野手合計OPS也是最差
(.685，聯盟平均是.772)。他們的defensive runs saved也是聯盟最差，-43。所以，他們
在攻守兩端都嚴重傷到巨人。


Contractually, they're locked in for one more year with both Hunter Pence and
Denard Span and they punted on shopping for a left fielder last winter. Span
can't play center (not after giving up minus-31 DRS by himself) or hit well
enough to be an asset in a corner, and Pence can't stay healthy, so they
really need to approach the winter thinking they have no answers at any one
position. Any kind of defensive upgrade in center could make a huge
difference for Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija after their disappointing
seasons on the mound, and finding a strong bat for a corner would make a huge
difference on the scoreboard every day.
合約上，他們跟Hunter Pence及Denard Span還有一年合約，去年冬天也想買左外野手。
Span不能守中間(DRS -31)，打擊表現也不盡理想；Pence的健康也不是很穩，所以巨人今
年冬天應該要好好想想如何解決。任何可以中外野手可以升級巨人的打擊能力，就可以對
隊上的投手如Cueto跟Samardzia有明顯的幫助，尤其在他們令人沮喪的一季之後。另外再
找一支大棒子也會對得分有幫助。


--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 61.222.1.181
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1510287129.A.D4B.html
推 triff: 目前可以跟道奇匹敵的球隊在東岸
→ corlos: 道奇的陣容一直都是季賽很強，季後就是打不出來
→ corlos: 國西五連霸(笑)
推 EEERRIICC: 是其他隊虛弱
推 kenkenken31: 想前幾年還在歡樂國西勝率沒五成，道奇沒強盛那麼久
推 pedrovish: 今年都殺到WS第七戰了 還打不出來==反串加油好嗎
→ Jeter: 沒辦法 現在拿亞軍會被酸
推 kevininla: Stanton去酷爾斯大概一年可以100轟吧XDDD
推 johnny132: 國西冠軍沒90勝最近一次也08年了  沒多歡樂吧XD
推 ygjhsu: 洛磯盤來power99 這想法真誘人
推 MrHeat: 90年代勇士:.......
→ MrHeat: 不開玩笑 其實長期保持可以進季後賽 甚至可以爭冠的強度
→ MrHeat: 不開玩笑 其實長期保持可以進季後賽 甚至可以爭冠的強度
推 globekiller: 現在砸錢拿亞軍就是會被酸啊
→ MrHeat: 應該可以算是傲人成績了 不知道這到底哪裡好嘲諷
推 jardon: 不要說國西 全聯盟也沒幾隊砸的贏躲人
推 OoyaoO: 不懂亞軍有啥好酸的 這是30隊耶
推 fountainNess: 1.前田本來就在隊上，所以不是「簽」回來
→ fountainNess: 2.Darvish-Otani package deal翻成交易怪怪的，他
→ fountainNess: 們都是FA，翻成同時搞定、簽下他們會比較正確
→ fountainNess: 3.響尾蛇第三段後面，不是說球員表現跟Goldschmidt
→ fountainNess: 一樣好，而是說「雖然Goldy很優秀，但他的貢獻可能
→ fountainNess: 到極限了」
謝f大  已修
※ 編輯: pneumo (61.222.1.181), 11/10/2017 12:56:00
推 AZBTPATONY: 躲人新人養的好 薪資上限又高 令人羨慕阿
→ AZBTPATONY: 躲人這陣容 毒瘤約清掉之後 五年內 肯定可以再打WS
→ fountainNess: Stanton那段漏翻兩句
被發現惹 因為實在看不懂，不知道怎麼翻才好，就忽略它了...
(淚奔~~)
推 saiulbb: Stanton乾脆來巨人吧 市場大缺外野 國西也變成火藥庫惹
推 SamFuld: 救援失敗不可能超過一次那段，總覺得可以有更通順的講法
推 echo3283: 別把中職那套拿來，30隊要連續亞軍你以為很簡單嗎
推 blacklittle: 應該不是說救援失敗 應該是說慘敗吧?
我把下一篇修改的貼上來，英文太差，多包涵
推 JerryGreen: NBA腦退散，棒球能打WS就是超強隊伍了
推 Randybass: Power99上山！光想像就覺得很熱血！
推 az755181: 魚王上山 這畫面太美我不敢看
推 wsx1678904: 上山一年會不會來個80+阿
推 triff: 上山打可以超越Barry Bonds73轟紀錄嗎？
推 fffange: 國西三龍頭的球場好像都很好刷
推 Roshiel: 躲人明年要進季後賽還是沒問題..八成又是跟小熊打NLCS
※ 編輯: pneumo (61.222.1.181), 11/10/2017 14:45:35
推 kshank06: 洛基那個陣容如果成真，畫面真的太美
推 fountainNess: 意思就是因為Stanton剩餘合約太大，落磯農場不至於
→ fountainNess: 因為這筆交易被榨乾，也不至於全吃合約
→ fountainNess: 多加油吧，不管英文好壞，英文翻譯需要練習
謝謝f大鼓勵  大概會休息了
※ 編輯: pneumo (61.222.1.181), 11/10/2017 15:06:46
推 stephanal: 推 stanton上山喔喔喔喔
推 F12NLargo: 我不敢想像落磯的打線有Stanton…
→ EEERRIICC: 翻譯94兩種語言同時提升的工作
推 whalelover: window直接翻空窗好像怪怪的
推 yankees733: Stanton上山會不會打一堆600ft全壘打?
推 jardon: 286  .375  .714  1.089 怪力上山成績
→ jardon: 平均9打數1轟
→ jardon: 主場算起來可以撈個30幾轟
→ jardon: 但有鑒於是面對落磯投手 可能需要打折扣
推 sam9595: 洛磯今年ERA+聯盟第8喔　數字不好看真的只是因為球場
推 ErnieBanks: 鼓勵 給推
→ jardon: 怪力的成績不是只有今年的 是生涯
推 k33536: 季後短期賽什麼都很難講 道奇沒到國聯無敵的境界
推 ultratimes: ERA+不是早就有針對球場修正了？
推 k952gfjk: 巨人拿投手跟小熊換黑娃吧！增強手備
推 acd51874: 增強守備簽Dyson足矣，反正打擊都上不了檯面
→ geneaven: 別傻了,道奇錢和年輕肉體都滿滿,國西其他隊只能撿外卡
推 kenkenken31: 讓巨人或紅雀摸進季後賽,季賽看起來再猛都會抖起來
推 jonanleelee: 道奇...就真的只差運氣了
→ BusterPosey: 黑木耳可以喔
推 alpacaHong: Greinke原來那麼老了喔...
推 jasper2302: 請問為何教士球迷不夠可能被罰錢？
推 nuggets0916: 蛇蛇滿值得期待
推 nkfpig19: 有翻有推，請再接再厲
→ tp6m4g0: 難怪空空要辱駡亞洲人