[外電] 休賽季展望：亞特蘭大勇士

[rioslo (肥宅，變態，紳士)]

原文出處：https://goo.gl/1iWLUh

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

By Jeff Todd | November 24, 2017 at 5:17pm CDT

After a disappointing season ended in front office calamity,
the Braves will attempt to take the next step in their rebuilding process
under new baseball leadership.

一個令人失望的賽季，隨之而後的是管理團隊的悲劇，勇士嘗試在新的管理團隊下
重建。


保證合約：

-Freddie Freeman, 1B：明年薪資 $21.3M 合約至2021，剩餘薪資66M
-Matt Kemp, OF：明年薪資 $21.75M 合約至2019，剩餘薪資21.75M
                (道奇支付7M)
-Ender Inciarte, OF：明年薪資 $4.7M 合約至2021，剩餘薪資22.1M
-Julio Teheran, SP：明年薪資 $8.167M 合約至2019，薪資剩餘11.167M
-Nick Markakis, OF：明年薪資 $11M 合約至2018
-Jim Johnson, RP：明年薪資 $4.5M 合約至2018
-Tyler Flowers, C：明年薪資 $4M 合約至2018 (執行球隊選擇權)
-Kurt Suzuki, C：明年薪資 $3.5M 合約至2018
-Rex Brothers, RP：雙向合約(價值未知)

-仲裁團：（括號中是年資+天數）

-Matt Adams (5.033) –預計 $4.6M
-Arodys Vizcaino (4.168) –預計 $3.7M
-Danny Santana (3.111) –預計 $1.1M
-Sam Freeman (3.066) –預計 $1.2M
-Jace Peterson (3.003) –預計 $1.1M
-Daniel Winkler (3.000) –預計 $800K
-Mike Foltynewicz (2.163) –預計 $2.7M
-不提供合約人選: Adams, Santana, Peterson

-自由球員：

-R.A. Dickey： 拒絕球隊選擇權
-Jason Motte

John Hart and John Coppolella provided a wild ride for the Braves’ faithful,
engineering a variety of bold moves and stocking the organization with young
talent. But rules violations led to the departures of both, along with league
discipline that stripped the Braves of some of their most interesting younger
prospects and constrained the organization’s ability to add new international
talent in the coming seasons.

JH跟JC替勇士隊規劃了一個美好的未來，各種大膽的舉動跟累積許多青春的肉體。
但違反簽約規則導致兩位的離職，也遭受到聯盟的判罰，剝奪了一些新選入的菜鳥，
並同時限制在未來幾年國際選秀的簽約金。

Former Blue Jays GM and Dodgers executive Alex Anthopoulos was brought in as
an experienced hand who can get the organization back on track. But that
doesn’t mean we should anticipate a quiet offseason. Though the new top
baseball decisionmaker has suggested he’s not looking for a general shake-up,
he swung quite a few blockbusters in Toronto and will surely have his own
ideas about the roster he’s inheriting.

前藍鳥GM同時也是道奇VP的AA，是一位很有經驗的老手，可以幫助管理階層走上正軌。
但這不意味著現在是個安靜的休賽季。儘管AA已經暗示他不會有全面性的改革，但根據
他在藍鳥時處理一堆爛約的過往，相信他對球員名單會有自己的想法。

What remains unclear is just how aggressive the organization will be in
seeking to put a winner on the field in 2018. The club enters the offseason
with just over $90MM in likely commitments, including anticipated arbitration
payouts. Depending upon how high payroll will rise, there could be some room
for relatively significant additions. Alternatively, the club might seek to
condense some of its upper-level young talent in an effort to land quality,
controllable assets to the MLB roster. Entering the second year at SunTrust
Park on the heels of the rules scandal, it’s possible to imagine some effort
to push into contention. On the other hand, the hit to the team’s future
interests may counsel in favor of some caution.

目前仍不清楚的是球隊對2018的積極性。但隨著明年大筆的薪資 $90M(包含薪資仲裁)，
同時薪資水準仍有相當大的成長幅度下，可能還有相當的增加空間。另一方面，球團也
累積了一些高天份的青春肉體，準備放入名單。
在遷移到新球場的第二年爆發選秀醜聞後，試著做出一些努力重返競爭行列，同時也對球團
未來的規劃有所警惕。

In his first acts in office, Anthopoulos took some low-cost opportunities to
shore up the team’s bullpen — a notable area of need. But the pitchers he
grabbed from his former organization — Grant Dayton and Josh Ravin — are
just the kind of risky maneuvers we might have seen from his predecessors.
The former will miss most or all of 2018 while rehabbing from Tommy John
surgery while the latter has never held down a steady MLB job. But both have
big-time swing-and-miss upside.

在AA接下管理團隊後的第一個動作，找了一些低成本的牛來支撐著牛棚-一個顯著的需求。
但這些投手來自他的前東家，Grant Dayton和 Josh Ravin，一個看似很有風險的決策。
Grant Dayton，剛從TJ手術回來，極有可能錯過2018的球季。而後者 Josh Ravin，沒有
證明過在MLB有壓制力。但兩者都具備關鍵時刻令打者的揮空率。

Lining up a strong and reliable relief corps, though, may well require more.
There’s talent on hand, to be sure. Pitchers such as Arodys Vizcaino, Jose
Ramirez, A.J. Minter, Mauricio Cabrera, Daniel Winkler, Luke Jackson, Rex
Brothers, Jacob Lindgren, and Jesse Biddle have had some MLB success and/or
shown impressive arsenals, not unlike Dayton and Ravin. But none of these
pitchers has yet strung together multiple, successful MLB campaigns and
several come with health concerns. Veterans Jim Johnson and Sam Freeman are
in the picture, too, but there’s room here for further tinkering.

但是，建立一個強壯的牛棚可能需要更多，但肯定的是，手上的青春肉體們，Arodys
Vizcaino, Jose Ramirez, A.J. Minter, Mauricio Cabrera, Daniel Winkler, Luke
Jackson, Rex Brothers, Jacob Lindgren, and Jesse Biddle都展現過一定的實績。
就像剛撿來的兩位新牛。但這些牛還沒有證明過能撐起連續的賽季，其中幾位還有著健
康的疑慮。這牛棚還有修補的空間rrr。

It’s not an altogether different picture in the rotation, which no longer
includes three veteran arms — R.A. Dickey, Bartolo Colon, and Jaime Garcia —
that opened with the club last year. Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz are
the two senior members of the staff at present; both will be looking to
improve after producing middling results in 2017. They could be joined by a
trio young lefties who are fresh off of their MLB debuts. Sean Newcomb still
needs to hone his command to reach his ceiling, but turned in 100 solid frames.
Luiz Gohara showed off his talent in five starts, posting 9.5 K/9 against 2.5
BB/9 after mostly dominating in his first taste of the upper minors in an
eventful campaign. And Max Fried also got a brief run in the bigs, though his
overall effort on the year suggests some further seasoning may be in order.

先發方面也是，三位老將-Dickey.八頭龍.Garcia,也都退休或被交易了。目前僅有大黑輪
跟Folty，兩位在2017年都繳出一般的成績，但相信在明年會有所改善。其餘的三個空缺，
將由三位新鮮左投來遞補，Newcomb在2017投了100局，但還需要磨練他的好球帶控制能力
才能到他的天花板。Gohara在5次的先發展現了他的天賦，繳出了9.5 k/9和2.5 b/9在他
的首次大聯盟賽季。而Fried也有過短暫的大聯盟經驗，雖然今年的表現還有些進步調整
的空間。

Otherwise, the Braves have some back-end right-handed arms available in Lucas
Sims, Aaron Blair, and Matt Wisler, all of whom have struggled in their early
MLB time. More exciting arms — Mike Soroka and Kolby Allard — aren’t far
off after turning in strong years at Double-A, but don’t currently hold
40-man roster spots.

除此之外，勇士還有著一些右手先發可以用，像是Lucas Sims, Aaron Blair, and Matt
Wisler，雖然他們在都有些掙扎期。但有更令人期待的投手— Mike Soroka and Kolby
Allard —在2A繳出漂亮的成績，雖然還沒進入到40人名單。

With that wide array of options, the Braves could actually focus on paring
back some excess depth over the offseason and into the camp, though there’s
also some flexibility since all of those candidates can also still be optioned.
Competing the open spots between this lengthy list of young pitchers is a
reasonable approach. Some may also conceivably turn into bullpen candidates
instead.

在這滿出來的選擇下，勇士在休賽季期間，可以專注在一些交易多餘的牛來增加彈性，
畢竟都還有選擇權。讓這群投手來競爭開季的位置，也是個合理的方式。雖然有一些有可
能轉為牛棚。

At the same time, the Braves will need to strongly consider pursuing upgrades
if they truly hope to put a legitimate contender on the field for the coming
season. There’s some merit to considering a solid veteran type to hold down
some innings at the back of the rotation, though the team passed up on a
chance to retain Dickey for the purpose (though he may have been headed for
retirement anyway) and it is also arguable that a more significant addition
would be warranted. It’s possible to imagine the Braves dabbling in the upper
levels of the free agent market, perhaps going after a hurler such as Alex Cobb
or finally landing the unicorn (top-end controllable starter) that the prior
administration seemingly pursued for years. There’s a long slate of
possibilities at a lower price point, of course, and the Braves might also
conceivably take some lower-priced risks, with righty Chris Tillman
representing the most intriguing bounceback arm available to the high bidder.

同時，如果勇士想要提升下賽季的競爭力，就需要考慮升級投手。找一些有經驗的投手
來有著許多優點，雖然勇士因為這原因放棄了Dickey(要退休了)，但找投手的重要性是
值得肯定的。像是 Alex Cobb或是其他可控制長時間且較低廉的投手，制服組追求的是
低風險的對象。如果要高風險則像是 Chris Tillman，賭一個觸底反彈的可能性。

There’s less to be done on the position-player side, though that shouldn’t
be read as a suggestion that there isn’t any room for improvement. In
addition to top star Freddie Freeman at first, the club is set up the middle
with Ender Inciarte in center; Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, and Johan Camargo
in the middle infield; and Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki behind the plate.
That’s far from the best group of core position player talent in baseball,
particularly given that the young infielders still are not yet fully
established and the catchers are only short-term assets, but it gives the
organization a base to work from this winter.


在其他位置部分可以操作的球員選項不多，但這不代表沒有改進的空間。首先除了球隊
的臉Freeman在一壘外，中外野有金手套Inciarte，內野則有Swanson，Albies和 Camargo
組成，Flowers跟 Suzuki則鎮守本壘。這會是目前最好的選擇，尤其考慮到年輕的內野手
都還沒長時間合作，而捕手只是短期約。但這些組合讓球隊在休賽季有運作的空間。

The top priority, in all likelihood, will be improving at third base. Adonis
Garcia has had stretches of competence, but he’s a 32-year-old player with a
.267/.300/.414 slash through 944 MLB plate appearances. Former top pick Rio
Ruiz may ultimately deserve a longer look, but he hit just .193/.283/.307 in
his 173 trips to the plate at the game’s highest level last year and has not
exactly dominated the opposition over two full seasons at Triple-A. Around
this time last year, Coppolella gave some reason to believe Travis Demeritte
might be the future at the hot corner, but he took a step back in 2017 and was
not protected from the Rule 5 draft. (Dustin Peterson was also left open to
being claimed in the draft.) The current prospect of note is Austin Riley, who
knocked around Double-A pitching after a tepid run at the High-A level. But
he’s still just twenty years of age and is far from a sure thing.

最重要的一點，可以在三壘這位置獲得改善。Garcia已經有一定的能力，但是個32歲的球
員，同時在MLB的944次打數繳出.267/.300/.414。前三壘大物(?) Ruiz可能需要更長一段
時間觀察，在去年的173打席中繳出.193/.283/.307，而且在3A的兩個球季還沒有掌現主
宰性。而在去年的這時後，前GM Coppolella有理由相信 Demeritte是未來的解答，但在
2017年退步了同時沒有放在規則5的保護名單內（ Dustin Peterson也是)。但目前值得注
意的是 Riley，在1A跟2A打出漂亮的成績，但他還只有20歲，還有太多不確定性。

While the Braves could conceivably allow Camargo to play at third while
utilizing Jace Peterson as a utility infielder, that would be an awfully risky
way of constructing the infield for an organization that intends to improve
its on-field product. Camargo turned heads last year, but benefited from a
.364 BABIP and walked at only a 4.7% clip. Swanson struggled badly after an
impressive MLB debut in 2016. That also serves as a reminder not to forget
that Albies is still just twenty years old and may yet have his own growing
pains to experience. The better bet would be to bring in a veteran to shore
things up at the hot corner for at least a season or two. MLBTR guessed that
the Braves could land top free agent Mike Moustakas, who lacks an obvious
landing spot, but that was and remains a speculative connection. The Braves
could look at other established players on shorter-term deals, potentially
including free agents ranging from Todd Frazier to Yunel Escobar or potential
trade targets that could include Yangervis Solarte and Nick Castellanos. At
this point, frankly, it’s hard to guess what kind of direction the pursuit
might take odds are, though, that there’ll be a healthy dose of opportunism
guiding the effort.

或許勇士可以用 Camargo來守三壘，而Peterson作為內野工具人。但這對要重建的球隊
內野來說有相當大的冒險程度。Camargo2017有著顯著的進步，但這受益於.364 BABIP而
且保送率只有4.7%。Swanson在2016亮相後的糟糕表現，也不忘提醒著 Albies只有20歲，
都還在成長的階段。所以找一名老將來三壘至少1~2個球季，MLBTR猜測勇士會找FA-
Moustakas，雖然沒有強烈的需求，但會是筆投機的交易。或者其他的FA- Todd Frazier，
Yunel Escobar，甚至是交易來Yangervis Solarte 和 Nick Castellanos。還有一點，
老實說這些猜測的交易很難評估說會帶給勇士怎樣的方向，但儘管這樣，還是可以有老將
來帶領這群新人內野。

The corner outfield is another area of some intrigue (though others could open
based upon other moves). Atlanta could rely again upon veterans Matt Kemp and
Nick Markakis while supplementing them with a reserve or two, possibly
including Lane Adams, who showed well in his first real MLB time in 2017. But
the organization would probably rather upgrade over those two — neither of
whom profiles as a viable everyday player at this stage of their careers —
and begin preparing for a future with younger options. Shedding some salary
would be preferable, too. Markakis would make for a useful platoon or reserve
outfielder for a contender, though he could also remain an appealing piece in
Atlanta, while Kemp could fit on an American League team in search of pop. But
dealing either will mean keeping some salary, particularly for the latter.

外野的兩側又是個複雜的問題了。目前是兩位老將 Markakis和 Kemp，同時尋找1~2位替
補人選。可能包括 Lane Adams，在他大聯盟的第一個球季表現出色。但球隊更傾向升級
這兩個位置，在兩位的這個階段，都已經不是每天可以上場的狀態，也必須為未來做些
選擇，即使需要付出一些薪水。Markakis 或許可以成為輪替或替補的角色，儘管他在亞
特蘭大有著相當大的吸引力。而 Kemp更適合在美聯的球隊找尋機會。但是，這兩位的交
易都意味著需要吃下點薪資空間，尤其是後者。

There are some similarities between the corner outfield and the third-base
situations, with one major difference. Unlike at the hot corner, there is a
clear heir apparent on hand to step into an outfield spot. Top prospect Ronald
Acuna is likely ready for a big league test after blowing through the minors
in 2017, though the team will in all probability at least start him in the
minors to capture an additional season of club control. While pursuing other
pieces in the corner outfield could still make sense, particularly if a truly
appealing opportunity presents itself, one spot will undoubtedly be reserved
for Acuna — who could be an everyday presence for the majority of 2018 and
years beyond.

外野的兩側跟三壘有著相似的情況，但有一個主要的區別。不像三壘的缺乏，外野已經
有個準備進來的大物-Acuna。目前勇士隊排名第一的青春肉體，已經準備好挑戰MLB了。
雖然找尋新的外野手還是有意義的，尤其是具有吸引力的外野手。但另一個位置，毫無
疑問是留給 Acuna。

That leaves one interesting, unaddressed piece of the Braves’ offseason
puzzle: Matt Adams. The first baseman was a sensation upon arriving in a
midseason swap, but cooled down the stretch and also missed time with injury.
The Braves dabbled with positional changes to accommodate his bat in the
lineup — trying Freeman at third and Adams in left — but those seem likely
to be left in the rearview mirror. Now, Adams looks to be an ill-fitting piece
for a team whose best player is a young, left-handed-hitting first baseman.
While it’s conceivable that he’d draw interest in trade, the 29-year-old is
best limited to facing right-handed pitching and occupying first base or DH.
Defensively limited, good-but-not-great hitters aren’t in short supply these
days, so it’s not likely that the Atlanta organization will reap a big return
— and it’s possible the team will simply non-tender Adams instead.

這邊還留下件有趣的事情，無法解決的休賽季難題-Matt Adams。球季中的交易來到，
補上受傷的缺。在Freeman回來後，Freeman改守三壘，但這不是長時間的解答。Adams會
是一名好的左打，但對勇士來說是不適合的。可以預料他會對交易有興趣，但29歲，只能
佔據一壘或DH，對右投明顯好過左投。防守也不怎樣，所以交易價值可能不大。勇士可能
不提供合約給他。

Ultimately, despite the loss of some notable prospect capital, Anthopoulos will
have quite a few pieces and a bit of payroll flexibility to work with. The wild
cards here are upper management’s views on the contention timeline and the new
front office’s feelings about the club’s young talent. There’s a conceivable
world where the Braves end up largely maintaining their current roster for the
2018 season, with a few tweaks on the margins. There’s another where Atlanta
engages in quite a bit more swapping and acquiring of assets, reflecting both
Anthopoulos’s preferences and perhaps also a determination that it’s time to
move toward competition. And there’s a wide gray area in between, with plenty
of stopping points along the way. What was always going to be a fascinating
offseason to watch is all the more interesting after the curveball that kicked
it off.

最後，雖然喪失了一些新秀和簽約金，但AA相對來說有些彈性預算來進行操作。外卡跟好
好培養這些青春的肉體是當前的目標。試著想想看，勇士在2018結束後，還是保留著現階
段的大部分球員，只有在陣容上做些調整。或許還有個可能，勇士做了更多的交易，這反
映出AA的偏好，或許也是競爭的時候到了。這中間還有許多空間來做出改變，在經過這個
休賽季後，請拭目以待。 

-----------------------------------------------------

首次翻譯，翻得不好請見諒，
如有錯誤或是更好的建議，
也請提出，謝謝：）


RL

--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1511705999.A.D98.html
※ 編輯: rioslo (118.160.49.222), 11/26/2017 22:21:02
推 fountainNess: 先推
→ rioslo: 自己的隊版自己轉
推 willy0314: inciarte的合約是到2021 不是2121 也太久
 謝謝發現，我眼睛都花了，已修正
→ LucasDuda: Biddle還沒掛耶
推 fountainNess: 第三段那邊，搬到新球場第二年那邊，是說可以想像球
→ fountainNess: 隊做一點嘗試/努力以重返競爭者行列(contend)，不是
→ fountainNess: 爭論的意思
推 fountainNess: 牛棚那邊not unlike Dayton&Ravin，雙重否定後是肯
推 epw: 大黑輪這兩年是蠻讓人失望的，以一個曾經投出Ace身手的人來講
→ fountainNess: 定的意思，所以是說年輕牛跟Dayton他們相似
 謝謝fountainNess大，我在修一下，我會好好念書der(握拳
 epw，今年主客場差異超大Orz
※ 編輯: rioslo (118.160.49.222), 11/26/2017 23:24:20
推 MKAngelheart: 新主場受害者Teheran...以前是主場王欸
推 lowl99: 認真翻譯推
推 DannyAinge: 有翻有推
推 noodlecool: 斧迷推
推 frostpro: 勇士加油！
※ rioslo:轉錄至看板 Braves                                        11/27 09:32
推 saiulbb: 謝謝分享