[外電] Twins To Sign Lance Lynn

[saiulbb (Becky♪＃是我的拉!)]

1. 新聞來源：

mlbtraderumors

2. 新聞標題：

Twins To Sign Lance Lynn

3. 新聞內容：

By Kyle Downing | March 10, 2018 at 3:34pm CDT

The Twins have agreed to terms on a one-year, $12MM deal with right-hander
Lance Lynn, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Morosi also notes that the total
value of the deal could increase to $14MM if Lynn achieves certain
performance bonuses. An earlier tweet from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports
reported that the Twins were “closing in” on a deal with Lynn (Heyman later
noted that the deal was expected to be for one year), while Morosi himself
reported in an earlier tweet that the deal would be worth more than $10MM.
Lynn is a client of Excel Sports Management.

The pact, which is pending a physical, makes Lynn the latest victim of a
slow-moving offseason in which a number of high-profile players have been
forced to settle for one-year deals that look diminutive in comparison to
those they were expected to receive. At the outset of the offseason, we
ranked Lynn ninth on our list of the top 50 free agents, predicting that he’
d receive $56MM over four years. More recently, our player profile for the
righty suggested he could even achieve a $60MM deal. Obviously, the meager
$12MM guarantee from the Twins falls significantly short of those
expectations. He’ll instead join Mike Moustakas, Logan Morrison, Jonathan
Lucroy and Carlos Gonzalez as players who were widely expected to merit hefty
multi-year pacts but will ultimately be guaranteed less money than reliever
Juan Nicasio.

As for the Twins, the deal comes as the latest move of an incredibly busy
(and cost-efficient) offseason during which the club has managed to patch its
rotation quite nicely. After missing out on Yu Darvish, to whom the club
reportedly offered a nine-figure contract that would’ve shattered the club
record, the Twins traded a low-profile prospect for Jake Odorizzi and have
now gotten an incredible bargain on Lynn. They also managed to bring Morrison
to Minnesota on just a $6.5MM deal with incentives and a vesting option.
Though Lynn and Morrison were widely expected to command over $100MM in
combined guarantees, the Twins will promise them a total of just $18.5MM. The
club has also shored up their bullpen this winter by signing Addison Reed,
Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney.

[RELATED: Updated Minnesota Twins Depth Chart/Updated Minnesota Twins Payroll]

The 30-year-old rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals at the outset
of the offseason, so the Twins will be forced to forfeit a 2018 draft pick
after signing him. But because the Twins were revenue-sharing recipients in
2017 and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, that pick will be just
their fourth-highest of the draft (number 95 overall). They’d normally be
required to surrender their third-highest pick, but for Minnesota that’s a
protected selection in Competitive Round B. For Lynn’s part, he’ll no
longer be eligible to receive a qualifying offer next year thanks to a
provision in the new CBA.

Lynn’s spent his entire career thus far with the Cardinals, who selected him
with a supplemental first round pick in 2008. He reached the majors for the
first time in 2011, and pitched his first full season in the majors the
following year. From that point, he chucked 752 2/3 innings for the Redbirds
(to the tune of a 3.39 ERA) across four seasons before tearing his UCL and
undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2015. After returning to the
mound to kick off the 2017 campaign, the righty made 33 starts and posted a
3.43 ERA.

Although it seems on the surface that he picked up right where he left off,
pre- and post-Tommy John surgery Lynn don’t look like the exact same
pitcher. While he boasted a career K/9 of 8.67 prior to going under the
knife, his 2017 mark was a meager 7.39. Likewise, his 4.75 xFIP last season
was almost exactly a full run higher than the 3.74 figure he owned prior to
2016. His control wasn’t quite as good either, as evidenced by a 3.77 BB/9
mark in 2017. His pre-Tommy John mark was just 3.35. These statistical red
flags, along with a 0.6 MPH drop on his average fastball, may have been part
of the reason teams were wary of giving him a long-term pact. Still, he’s at
least got durability going for him; outside of 2016 he’s thrown at least 175
innings in each of his full major league seasons.

The Lynn deal seems to spell bad news for fellow right-handers Alex Cobb and
Jake Arrieta, both of whom remain on the free agent market. In particular, it
’s tough to imagine that Cobb, who’s also one season removed from Tommy
John surgery and owns similar career run-prevention numbers, will be able to
eclipse Lynn’s guarantee. With just under three weeks remaining until
opening day, it will be interesting to see what type of contracts the two
best remaining free agent starters receive.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

4. 新聞連結：

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/twins-to-sign-lance-lynn.html

5. 備註：

(1) 雙城隊以$12MM/1YR附帶$2MM的激勵獎金簽下Lance Lynn，體檢完成後即合約生效，
不過他去年拒絕紅雀隊開的QO，因此雙城需放棄掉今年第四高的選秀順位(第95順位，根據
新版CBA規則，雙城去年收入為大聯盟第22名且未超過豪華稅門檻，故可以保護其原本該失
去的第三高的選秀順位(Competitive Round B)
各隊收入排名參考：https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall)。

(2) 雙城休季後著眼於先發的補強，如今也順利完成了。在此之前雙城曾開出破隊史紀錄
的上億元大合約給達比修有，不過他去加盟了小熊，接著雙城僅以低階新秀就從光芒交易
來Jake Odorizzi；此外，雙城在休季以總額$18.5MM補強了火力與牛棚，分別簽下了Logan
Morrison、Addison Reed、Zach Duke和Fernando Rodney，使得團隊總薪資突破上億元。

(3) 現年30歲的Lance Lynn，在2015年11月動過Tommy John手術，手術前後的表現判若兩
人，比較如下：
           K/9     xFIP     BB/9     Fastball Speed(MPH)
2011-15    8.67    3.74     3.35
2017       7.39    4.75     3.77     -0.6 (直接看下圖 from fangraphs)

https://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/2520_P_FA_20170928__pi.png

(4) 雙城隊今年預計的投手陣容：
A. SP：Ervin Santana(INJ)、José Berrios、Lance Lynn、Jake Odorizzi、Kyle
Gibson、Phil Hughes。
B. RP：Anibal Sanchez、Tyler Kinley、Zach Duke(L)、Ryan Pressly、Trevor
Hildenberger。
C. SU：Taylor Rogers(L)、Addison Reed。
D. CL：Fernando Rodney。

(5) Lance Lynn去年在紅雀隊的成績表現(去年薪水：$7.5MM)：

    W - L   ERA     IP     R     ER     SO     BB     ERA+     FIP     WHIP

   11 - 8   3.43   186.1   80    71     153    78     124     4.82    1.229
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1520728948.A.88A.html
推 c871111116: 推
推 lia910229: 又是一個簽約不如接受QO的
推 Kyushu1012: 誰料的到今年的FA市場會這樣呢......QQ
→ geneaven: 跟呂瓦同價XD
推 Roshiel: 慘
推 vencil: 好慘，以前中上的球員根本不怎麼會考慮QO，以後應該有變化
推 Toy17: Cobb還是沒消息欸…囧
推 kkkandy: qo為合格報價，有他相對的合理基礎
→ kkkandy: 應該是讓大家理解到市場不再這麼盤
推 ScottiePippe: QO再不修正，罷工可期
推 Roshiel: QO 不是前100的平均薪水嗎？沒大約就會降低啊
推 pujos: QO有啥好修正，笑你不敢罷工啦
→ pujos: 現在賠籤都砍到第三、第四輪了，還沒人要是誰的問題
推 acd51874: 你寫錯一個小地方了，CBB是第二輪末的補償選秀籤
推 acd51874: 雙城情況是簽QO要丟掉第三高選秀籤(但剛好被保護)，不是
→ acd51874: 第三輪唷
搞懂了，已更正謝謝。
※ 編輯: saiulbb (61.56.143.149), 03/11/2018 11:03:35
推 andy880036s: 還是屈服惹
推 decorum: 田中：天公疼憨人 科科
→ LucasDuda: 還在QO...
推 sonesnsdsosi: 田中真的做了正確的決定~
推 MazdaRx7: 帶我飛,給我希望
推 lsj049: 幫QQ
推 roger4768: Hosmer:UCCU
推 andy055097: 田中笑而不語
推 Sechslee: 罷工哈哈罷工 現在罷工球迷根本不會挺 只會死更慘
推 whhw: 如果穿越要記得今年行情不好
推 c871111116: Sanchez被釋出惹
推 carrhung: Anibal應該會被撿吧
推 mygoing: 其實前幾年就已經出現簽約不如QO的案了 只是當下狀況可
→ mygoing: 能都各不同