[外電] 天下武功 唯快不破? MLB的速球變革

[pneumo (超☆冒險蓋)]

翻譯若有錯，請不吝指正

來源: USA Today
網址: https://tinyurl.com/y9vkzc9g

The Fastball Paradox: With velocity up, fastballs on decline
天下武功 唯快不破? MLB的速球變革

NEW YORK (AP) — Over five seasons as ace of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Gerrit
Cole threw one of the game's hardest, heaviest fastballs, and he threw it
often. The pitch helped him make millions of dollars. It put him in
contention for major awards. Hitters swung through it again and again, and
Cole seemed content not to mess with a good thing.
在那五年身為海盜的王牌投手，Gerrit Cole是聯盟投手裡幾個可以投非常剛猛的速球的其
中之一，他也很常投速球。這一手好速球讓他賺進大把銀兩，讓他擠身得獎的競爭者行
列，打者試著打但是打不到，Cole自己似乎也不想改變一手打順的牌。

But when Cole was traded to the Houston Astros this offseason, a funny thing
happened. He became more frugal with his fastball and ended up more
overpowering than ever.
然而當Cole被交易到太空人之後，有趣的事情發生了。他似乎沒有那麼常丟速球，但是後
來的表現反而比以前更好。

Cole has joined some of the game's best pitchers — including Cleveland's
Corey Kluber and the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw — in benefiting from a
puzzling baseball paradox: In an era when pitchers are throwing harder than
ever, they're maximizing success by using fewer fastballs.
Cole跟聯盟其他幾位超強投手一樣--笑臉人的Corey Kluber，躲人書僮Clayton Kershaw--
都跟一個棒球界裡的一個難解之謎有關: 在這個投手越投越猛的時代，他們因為更少用速
球反而表現的更加傑出。

Pitchers — even ones with blazing fastballs like Luis Severino and Chris
Archer — are using more offspeed than ever recorded, and while many aces
think the downturn is a trend, some believe baseball could be entering a new
age dominated not by 100 mph heaters, but by a steady stream of breaking
balls and changeups.
即使像Luis Severino跟Chris Archer這些因速球知名的投手，都開始少投一些快速球。
一些聯盟王牌投手們認為把速球比例下修一點會變成主流，一些人更相信，棒球進入了一
個時代: 不再由動不動投出100+哩的速球主宰，反而是變化球或變速球開始變成主流。

So why is the hardest-throwing generation of pitchers ever going the way of
the junk-baller?
所以為甚麼這些速球年代的投手們開始投比較多慢球了呢？

Depends who you ask, but one culprit stands out to Cole, Kluber and Kershaw:
baseball's swing-changing batters.
看是問到誰，不過若是問到這些慢球的代表，像是Cole，Kluber跟Kershaw，他們會說：那
是因為打者的打擊改變了。

"You can call it launch angle, or you can call it the upper cuts," Cole said.
"There are a lot of swings that are dictating breaking balls."
「你可以說是擊球角度，或者你可以說把球往上打，」Cole說。「很多的打擊方式讓投手
不得不投變化球的。」

Cole's move away from a fastball-first approach is striking given the
reputation of his hardest pitch. He topped out at 99 mph as an ace at UCLA,
and his fastball was the headliner on a resume that earned him an $8 million
signing bonus as the first overall draft pick in 2011 by Pittsburgh. Under
the guidance of Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage, Cole pounded the bottom
of the strike zone with that heater, and for years, it worked. He was an
All-Star and finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2015, and was
considered among the game's most overpowering starting pitchers.
Cole決定少投速球是很讓人驚訝的，因為他就是因為速球成名的。在UCLA打球的時候，就
是因為投出99哩的速球成為隊上王牌，也是讓他在2011年第一輪就被海盜選上，給了800萬
鎂的簽約金的關係。在投手教練Ray Searage的教導，Cole用他的速球攻擊好球帶，效果顯
著。這也讓他成為全明星，2015國聯賽揚獎候選名單排名第四，那時候被認為聯盟剛猛型
速球投手之一。

Then baseball's flyball revolution took flight — a movement of hitters using
upper-cut swings designed to crush exactly the kinds of sinking fastballs
Cole was delivering. After never allowing more than 11 home runs in a season,
Cole was tagged for 31 last year.
然後聯盟的飛球革命發生了--打者改用向上的角度揮擊，正好打對於Cole這類投手所投的
下沉速球。以往他從沒被打超過11支全壘打，去年他就被扛了31發。

So it was time to change things up.
所以是時候調整一下了。

From 2013-17, Cole threw his fastball 65 percent of the time — well above
the league average. But this year, he's cut that fastball rate by about 10
points, replacing those heaters with sliders and curveballs. The new look is
working. Cole is 8-1 with a 2.59 ERA through 15 starts and leads the American
League with 138 strikeouts.
從2013到2017，他速球占的比例是65趴--比聯盟其他選手都高。但是今年，他把他速球比
例下修10趴，改投滑球跟曲球。新的方式似乎有效，Cole，先發15場，目前戰績8-1，ERA
2.59，三振數138次在美聯領先。

"I think you're just continually trying to mess timing up, especially when
guys are trying to slug," Cole said. "When they're trying to hit it out of
the park every time, you have an easier time changing speeds."
「我想就是盡量去混淆打擊的時機，尤其是他們想揮大棒的時候，」Cole說。「當他們想
把球打出球場的時候，去改變速度就更顯得容易。」

Kluber and Kershaw have made similar adjustments in the past couple years.
Both Cy Young winners rank among the league leaders in fewest fastballs
thrown this season.
Kluber跟Kershaw也在過去幾年做了類似的調整，兩位賽揚得主都在本季速球數排名敬排末
位。

"Guys are geared up to swing for a fastball," Kluber said. "I guess it's
almost rare now to see somebody actually, like, go the other way with the
breaking ball."
「打者們準備好了要打速球，」Kluber說。「我猜很少打者真的是挑變化球打的。」

Kluber has set a career low with a fastball rate of 41.8 percent this season.
Same for Kershaw, who has dropped from a 72-percent fastball clip in 2010 all
the way to 42.8 percent in an injury-hampered 2018.
Kluber本季投速球比例低到41.8趴，是生涯新低。Kershaw在2011年速球比例是72趴，而在
2018年受傷的這季，比例低到42.8趴。

"The hitters tell you what you need to do," Kershaw said. "And for me, I
guess it's been throwing a lot more breaking balls."
「打者會告訴你該怎麼做，」Kershaw說。「對於我來說，我猜我得要多投點變化球。」

Cole, Kluber and Kershaw suspect the tide will turn back, perhaps soon, once
hitters recalibrate to the number of four-seam fastballs pitchers are
throwing up in the strike zone.
Cole，Kluber跟Kershaw認為這樣的改變會可能很快就又會180大轉變，一旦打者們重新調
整面對這些四縫線速球投手們的改變。

But Trevor Bauer, Kluber's analytically-minded teammate in Cleveland, thinks
the offspeed uptick is only going to spread.
不過，Kluber的隊友Trevor Bauer認為，把速球比例降下來的狀況只會越來越多。

Two years ago, Bauer and Indians closer Cody Allen watched as 6-foot-8
Yankees fireballer Dellin Betances carved up Cleveland's hitters with a
fastball that averaged 98 mph. Allen — no slouch himself with a fastball
around 94 mph — told Bauer that if he could throw hard like Betances, he
wouldn't even bother with a breaking ball.
兩年前，Bauer跟他的隊友守護神Cody Allen看著洋基投手，6呎8吋的火球投手Dellin
Betances投著98哩的速球修理打者，Allen--速球大概是94哩--跟Bauer說，若是他也可以
跟Betances一樣丟那麼快，他才不用花腦筋去丟變化球。

"No," Bauer recalled telling Allen. "He should never throw a fastball."
「不，」Bauer記得他這樣跟Allen說。「他不應該丟速球的。」

Bauer's theory is that the threat of a 100 mph fastball might be more
dangerous to hitters than the fastballs themselves.
Bauer的理論是，能投出100哩的速球比真正的100哩速球對打者才是更危險。

"As guys throw harder, guys have less and less time to hit that offering,"
Bauer said. "So they have to speed up in order to catch up to it, which, that
makes the breaking ball more effective."
「隨著球速往上，打者們可以揮擊的時機越來越短，」Bauer說。「所以，他們為了要跟上
速球要調整他們揮擊的速度，這讓變化球的效果更好。」

Hitters are left picking between two nasty poisons — risk being behind on
triple-digit fastballs, or jeopardize taking ugly swings on breaking pitches
as they dart out of the strike zone.
打者現在只剩兩種球可以打--要嘛面對速度三位數的速球，不然就是得要用很奇怪姿勢才
打的到的變化球。

Veteran slugger Todd Frazier was with the Yankees last year when New York's
hard-throwing bullpen led by Betances, Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green
overpowered hitters while also posting the lowest fastball rate in the majors.
老將大砲Todd Frazier去年在洋基，去年洋基牛棚有三名火球投手，Betances，Aroldis
Chapman，跟Chad Green，速球比例也是驟降。

"I have to set my feet for 98 mph, and understand I might get 84-88 mph
slider," said Frazier, now with the New York Mets. "It makes it tougher on
you."
「我得準備好打98哩的速球，但是我也知道我會面對84-88哩的滑球，」Frazier說，現在
他是梅子的球員。「那真的很難打。」

And yet, Frazier and his fellow hitters aren't close to jumping off their
fastball-first approach.
然而，Frazier跟其他的打者好像還沒有準備要放棄選定速球攻擊的打擊策略。

"The baseline of hitting is the fastball," Mets teammate Jay Bruce said. "You
have to stay on the fastball. For me personally, that's what my timing of the
at-bat works off of."
「打擊的底線就是速球，」梅子打者Jay Bruce說。「要注意在速球，對我來說，當我走進
打擊區，我的打擊準備就是鎖定好速球。」

Bauer has hypothesized for years that as velocities climb, pitchers may
benefit from throwing fewer fastballs, but he didn't fully embrace the shift
himself until this year. After a 2017 postseason in which Houston's Lance
McCullers Jr. (40 percent fastball rate in 2017) and the Yankees' Masahiro
Tanka (26.4 percent) thrived with low fastball rates, Bauer has finally
followed suit.
Bauer的假設是，隨著時間，投球速度越來越快，投手可以從少投速球中得到更多的好處。
不過他自己是到了今年才開始真正接受這樣的改變。2017季後，太空人Lance McCuller
Jr.(2017年的速球比例是40趴)跟洋基田中(26.4趴)都因為減少速球比例而存活下來，
Bauer也開始跟隨這樣的潮流了。

It's no coincidence to him that he's having the best season of his life.
所以今年球季他的表現是生涯最佳也就不意外了。

Bauer has thrown his four- and two-seam fastballs less than 40 percent of the
time this year — about a 10-point drop from his career average — and filled
that gap mostly with sliders. He's baffling hitters like never before,
ranking among the league leaders with a 2.50 ERA and 129 strikeouts — second
only to Cole in the AL.
Bauer把他的四縫線跟二縫線速球比例在今年降到40趴--比他的生涯平均少了10趴--這10趴
的空間就用滑球取代。他徹底迷惑打者，ERA2.50，129次三振--在美聯只比Cole差。

That 40-percent clip puts Bauer among the most infrequent fastball throwers,
but he thinks the rest of the league may soon catch up by slowing down. Since
pitch-type data was first recorded in 2002, the rate of four- and two-seam
fastballs has shrunk steadily from 64.4 percent to 55.4 percent, according to
data logged by Fangraphs. Meanwhile, average fastball velocity has risen from
89 mph to 92.6.
40趴的比例讓Bauer在聯盟速球投手裡排名後頭，但是他認為很快的聯盟其他投手們也會開
始慢下來。自從2002年後投手的投球種類也會被記錄下來後，四縫線以及二縫線球的比例
就從64.4趴逐漸往下到55.4趴。然而，平均速球球速是從89哩爬到92.6哩。

If the heat keeps getting hotter, Bauer thinks pitchers will cool it further
on the fastballs. After all, other hurlers are going to notice the success
that Cole and Bauer — former UCLA teammates — are having with the
adjustment this season. Bauer suspects the league-wide fastball rate could
drop as low as 40-45 percent before hitters finally adjust.
如果速度繼續往上爬，Bauer認為投手會把速球數目往下降。畢竟，其他人也會看到Cole跟
Bauer的成功--看到他們在今年球季的調整。Bauer懷疑，聯盟速球比例可能要低到40-45
趴，打者們才可能會開始改變。

"You trap the hitters, basically, if you take that approach," Bauer said.
「如果用我們那種方式，基本上，我們是在迷惑打者，」Bauer說。

What do the hitters make of all that?
那打者怎麼看這樣的轉變呢？

"'Everybody can hit 98,' is what they're saying," Frazier said. "But that
isn't necessarily true. It's very hard to hit 98 with movement. I think
sometimes pitchers overthink things."
「『每個人都可以打98哩的速球，』他們大概是這樣說，」Frazier說。「但是那不見得是
對的。你知道打一個以98哩飛有尾勁的球有多難嗎？我認為有時投手想太多了。」
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噓 corlos: Bauer這套不就是杜福明
推 sakurai940: 一樓你是怎麼看的....
推 maxspeed150: 這跟杜福明理論差超多耶
推 sakurai940: 減少速球比例跟降速是兩回事好嗎
推 wunno: Bauer球速均速還上升咧 一樓的國文老師....
推 mark0204:
推 ckland: 有趣的想法
推 roger4768: 老杜的理論不是速差嗎?
→ jww: NYY的整體速球均速是最高的，但使用比例是全聯盟最低的
推 Phatmen: 如果一樓不是反串，那就知道閱讀能力有多重要
→ dumu: Kershaw是因為球速變慢才把速球比例調降吧~
推 krauserq: 98 with movement 應該是指98又帶有尾勁的意思吧?
→ pujos: 非常同意最後那一段....
→ pujos: 現在很常看到自己炸掉自己的—.—
→ pujos: 明明裁判就不太撿，硬要丟，對我就是在說薛蛇
→ pujos: 上一場炸的印象超級深刻
→ pujos: 最後往紅中扔，就出去了，敗投
推 Sechslee: 文章內的速度一下是速球球速 一下是速球比例 ...
推 lwifbf: 速度變快 但是速球比例下降 我覺得寫清楚會更好
已修  謝謝建議
※ 編輯: pneumo (124.218.53.71), 06/20/2018 18:34:16
推 bons2: 田中表示，我盡量不投速球
推 maxspeed150: 杜福明的理論是速差越大越好 也就是說比起150速球+
→ maxspeed150: 140有角度的滑球組合 135速球+105小便球在他眼中是
→ maxspeed150: 搭配組合 蔡士勤楊騏嘉就是這樣 明明速球和滑球都不
→ maxspeed150: 差 卻被老杜調教到只會丟肉包慢曲
推 gt12345: Colon:我最愛速球
推 juanmilking: There are a lot of swings that are dictating brea
→ juanmilking: king balls. 這句是說現在打擊策略是將球轟出牆。dic
推 juanmilking: the threat of a 100 mph fastball might be more
→ juanmilking: dangerous to hitters than the fastballs themselve
→ juanmilking: 這句是說,對打者來說投手有投出100miles快速球的能力
→ juanmilking: 比投手真正投出100miles速球的威脅更大。
→ jardon: 有好的 快的速球還是加分 只是不用投那麼多
→ terrorist: 樓上 juanmilking 的推文被切了一部份掉
→ terrorist: swings that are dictating breaking balls 是說揮擊方
→ terrorist: 式 (向上打, 拼打出牆) 簡直就是叫投手一定要投變化球
推 faracross: baour 真的走在時代最前端 腦子也太清楚了吧
→ terrorist: hard to hit 98 with movement 打到位移大的98速球很難
謝J大跟T大  已修正
※ 編輯: pneumo (124.218.53.71), 06/20/2018 21:00:32
推 Roshiel: 意思是說目前的打者多半設定速球攻擊+揮大棒
→ Roshiel: 所以球速愈快的投手，丟愈多變化球，打者就揮一大堆空氣
推 TheoEpstein: 會覺得這是杜福明玉山大曲理論到底是怎麼思考的....
推 TokyoHard: 現在主流,速球丟高,變化球丟低!讓你撈不到
推 OfanaticO: 翻譯
推 O0OO: 現在的打者普遍都有揮擊速球的能力 揮棒速度比上個世代快的
→ O0OO: 多啊 身體素質的提升造成的
→ O0OO: 不看大聯盟 台日韓也一樣
推 O0OO: 大谷的速球在日職揮空率不高 一般150左右的速球日韓打者也
→ O0OO: 普遍都能擊中 李振昌沒有變化球搭配速球就被打很慘 隨著95m
→ O0OO: 以上的投手越來越多 純快速球投手的投手已經不足為奇
→ klarc: 變化球太難打 所以打者就等著打速球 所以投手開始少投速球
推 polanco: the first overall draft pick應該是指狀元 不單純只是第
→ polanco: 一輪吧?
→ ShaShoukun: 只用速球去概括感覺不太對，若對照整個聯盟的情況，是
→ ShaShoukun: 2-seamer比例比以往來得少，4-seamer今年反而還增加了
→ ShaShoukun: 先不論飛球革命是不是有效，現在打者帶角度揮棒去應對
→ ShaShoukun: 2-seamer這倒不是假的，所以與其說是縮減"速球"，我感
→ ShaShoukun: 覺還比較像是減少2-seamer的使用比例然後分配到變化球
→ ShaShoukun: 跟4-seamer上面
推 holypiggy: 一直丟變化球不會受傷嗎 看看書僮==
→ holypiggy: 八頭龍:...
推 ClutchShot: Colon：
推 secpeda: 有95以上的速球+良好控球=主宰 加入變化球效果=屠殺
→ secpeda: 大B去年底那種控球 加入變化球也沒用阿 XD
推 v32767: 大部分投手變化球控制能力都遠不如速球，有點懷疑變化球
→ v32767: 中心的投球策略是不是真的對大多投手都有效，或只是更掙扎
推 Kevinlo: 老杜的那是小便球 不一樣 全力投出的變化球 跟刻意降速放
→ Kevinlo: 出去的變化球 效果完全不同
推 cnconnhc: 怎麼沒有人提到彈力球的影響呢？