[外電] 暗號門與太空人驚人的數據(上)

[ianshadow (雁影)]

原文: Does electronic sign stealing work? The Astros' numbers are eye-popping
來源: The Athletics

Their strikeout rate plummeted--at a level unparalleled in the last 100 years.

Their strikeout rate at home took an even more dramatic plunge — and that,
too, was unlike anything we’ve seen in the last century.

They developed an uncanny ability to lay off breaking balls below the strike
zone — an ability they hadn’t displayed before, and didn’t display on the
road. But at the same time, they began crushing every kind of pitch inside the
zone — at a rate that didn’t bear much resemblance to the way they’d handled
those very same pitches in the past.

他們的被三振率以百年來前所未有的幅度大幅下降，尤以在主場下降的幅度更為驚人。他們
展現出放掉好球帶下緣壞球的能力，同時將好球帶內的球打得更加結實，但在此之前，他們
從未以此見長。

These were your 2017 Houston Astros. Remember back, oh, a few months ago, when
we just referred to them as the World Series champs? Those were the days. Now
we look at them and ask: Were they really that good? How much did they owe to
pilfering signs and thumping on trash cans?

So here at The Athletic, we've been digging through the data, looking for
answers to those questions. We can say, with total assurance, that what we
found was intriguing. It strongly suggests that what they were doing worked.

這就是2017年的太空人。幾個月前人們還以世界冠軍稱呼他們，現在大家只想問，他們真的
有那麼強嗎？這當中有多少比例是來自太鼓達人與偷暗號？

The Athletics分析了一些數據並嘗試回答這個問題，結果非常耐人尋味，並強烈支持他們
的確以此獲得了一些優勢。

But here is what we can't say with any assurance: We can't say exactly how
well it worked — because we don't live in a What If world. We can't say the
Astros couldn't have won the World Series without it, because we can't
possibly know that. We can't say they wouldn't have dramatically improved
their contact rate if they'd never banged on those trash can lids — because
they did, in fact, bring in more contact-oriented hitters and did, in fact,
change their hitting philosophy heading into that season.

So bear that in mind as you read this. We're about to present a series of
numbers that look anything but normal, especially when you frame them in the
context of everyone and everything around them — and when you view them
through the prism of history. But we’re hesitant to jump to any firm
conclusions. So read them. Think about them. Decide for yourselves.

但我們無法確定影響有多大，因為我們無法觀察到另一個他們沒有作弊的平行時空，所以我
們不能很有把握地說太空人如果沒作弊就拿不到世界冠軍，這是不可能證明的。我們也不能
確定上述的現象完全是因為作弊，因為2017年他們確實補強了一些contact hitter，攻擊策
略也有所改變。

所以，在閱讀以下這些看起來非常不自然的數據的時候，請記得我們無法推論出100%的結論
。事實與真相為何，每個人心中自有答案。

Their plummeting strikeout rate 大幅下滑的三振率

A tale of two very different seasons: In 2016, Astros hitters struck out 1,452
times. That was the second-most in the American League, the fourth-most in
baseball and the eighth-highest total in the history of baseball. In 2017, they
set out to change that.

They changed it, all right.

They didn’t just strike out less — or even a lot less. They struck out so
much less, it’s fair to use the word “historic” to describe it.

2016年，太空人打者們被三振了1452次，這數字高居美聯第二、MLB第四，而且是聯盟史上
第八高的紀錄。2017年，他們誓言改變。

而他們真的做到了。

他們的被三振不只是少了一些，甚至只說少了很多都還客氣了。準確一點說，他們被三振率
的進步只能以「史無前例」來形容。

They cut their strikeouts by 365 whiffs — in one year. They went from punching
out 1,452 times in 2016 to a mere 1,087 in 2017, which meant they transformed
themselves from a team that was striking out at one of the highest rates in
history to a team that struck out less than any team in baseball that season.
And they made that transformation in just one year — not to mention a year
when the other 29 teams combined to strike out nearly 1,500 more times than they
whiffed the year before.

So how unusual is it for any team to cut down on their strikeouts by that much?
We asked STATS Perform to take a look. How many other teams in the entire
live-ball era (1920 to present) have ever reduced their team strikeout total by

365 in one year in non-strike-shortened seasons?
That would be none. In fact, no other team in history has even come within 80
strikeouts of doing that.

他們的被三振數在一年內整整減少了365次，從2016年的1452次降到了2017年的1087次。也
就是說他們從歷史上最容易被三振的球隊搖身一變成了全聯盟三振率最低的球隊。而其他29
隊的總三振數則比前一年多了1500次。

所以這有多不尋常呢？我們搜尋了從1920年至今的紀錄，想看看歷史上有多少球隊能在一年
內減少365次三振。

答案是……從來沒有。事實上，他們這個紀錄比第二名整整多了80次。

表一  https://imgur.com/y12LdbC

Of course, not all seasons in the live-ball era have been 162 games long. So
STATS also checked the biggest drops in strikeouts per game. The same five
teams led in that department, too. But STATS found that those 2016-17 Astros
were the only team in the last 100 seasons to cut their strikeout rate by more
than two strikeouts per game in one year. They went from 8.96 in 2016 to 6.71
in 2017 — a drop of 2.25 strikeouts per game.

當然，歷史上的球季並不一直都是162場，但以每場平均來看，太空人的紀錄依然相當驚人:
他們是百年來唯一一支在一年內每場平均三振數下降超過兩次的球隊(從8.96次下降到
6.71次)

But does that mean we can definitively say they made that dramatic a change
simply because they were stealing signs? We can’t. This was Alex Bregman's
first full season and Yuli Gurriel’s first full season. The Astros also
brought in Carlos Beltrán, Brian McCann, Josh Reddick and Nori Aoki that year.
All of those players had a track record of making more contact than the players
they replaced. Even preseason projections forecasted a significant decline in
their whiff rate.

但我們無法斷言這麼驚人的進步完全是因為偷暗號。這一年是Bregman和Gurriel的第一個完
整球季，打線中也新增了Beltran、McCann、Reddick，和青木宣青等人，這些人相較於他們
取代掉的球員都有更好的contact。季前預測其實就預期太空人的三振問題會有改善。

We also have no clear way to connect the dots between that dramatic increase in
contact rate and what sign-stealing techniques the Astros were using in any
specific game or games, how often they used those techniques, or how they
affected any specific player or players. Just this week, we did get a
game-by-game breakdown, from Astros fan Tony Adams, of how often they banged on
their trash-can lids in any given home game. And that at least gives us a
timeline that reveals how much that activity picked up between late May and
late September.

But remember, the report from the commissioner’s office this month says the
Astros also used other methods — including “clapping, whistling or yelling”
— to tip off hitters as to what pitch was coming. So it remains impossible to
measure how impactful every one of those techniques may have been. Others have
attempted to study whether it was possible to draw that connection, and they’
ve drawn conclusions that vary widely.

這一大段在講要準確估計偷暗號的影響有多大是不可能的…就不仔細翻了

We readily acknowledge that the most convenient explanation here isn’t the
only explanation. Nevertheless, when you view a historic change in teamwide
strikeout rates in the context of what the Astros have been accused of, and
punished for doing, it’s at least worth pointing out that their success in
cutting down on strikeouts was outside the realm of what’s considered “normal.
”

我們在此承認最直覺的解釋可能不是唯一的解釋。然而，將這個數字與暗號門事件放在一起
看，不得不說這麼大幅的三振下降率非常不自然。

Their eye-popping home/road splits  難以忽視的主客場差異

Let’s just accept the explanation that the Astros were able to cut their strike
outs because of an overhaul in their lineup and a more aggressive philosophy of
hitting. That's a perfectly logical reason for any team's strikeout decline.
But if that's all that was fueling this change, we have one big question:

Why did they strike out so much less at home than on the road?

讓我們姑且相信他們的三振率下降真的是因為打線重組和打擊策略改變吧，但如果是這樣的
話還有個大問題：

為甚麼他們在主場的三振比客場少這麼多？

表二    https://imgur.com/jarCoEO

In other words, they were able to cut down on their strikeouts both at home and
away from Houston. But if this was just about a team that decided it was time
to get more aggressive in swinging at strikes, why would they have been able to
reduce their strikeouts at home by 242 (nearly three fewer whiffs per game) but
only 123 on the road (or by about 1.5 per game)?

他們在主客場的被三振數都下降了，但如果這是打線和打擊策略改變的結果的話，為甚麼他
們在主場的被三振數下降了242次(將近每場下降3次)，但客場卻只下降了123次(大約每場下
降1.5次)?

STATS examined this question, too, in various ways. First off, this wasn’t
just the biggest year-to-year drop in strikeouts that STATS found in full
(non-strike) seasons. It was the largest in any length season in the live-ball
era. But when STATS looked only at full seasons, it found the Astros reduced
their strikeouts at home by 83 more K’s than the next-closest team in the last
100 years:

即使把罷工球季都納入計算，這數字也是史上最高的。但如果不看罷工球季的話，太空人主
場三振的下降次數比第二名還多了83次:

表三    https://imgur.com/Uv5XdHB

Or let’s look at this another way — by the decline in strikeouts per game,
which allows us to compare seasons of any length. Once again, STATS reported
that no other team in the live-ball era was able to cut its strikeout rate at
home by even close to this degree.

即使以每場平均來看，太空人依然穩居龍頭

表四    https://imgur.com/bJWvj9P

But STATS did uncover one area in which the Astros didn’t rank No. 1. It found
the Astros were one of 14 teams in the live-ball era in which there was at
least a 119-strikeout differential between the fluctuation in their home-park
strikeouts and their road strikeouts. (For the record, this was a study of only
teams with a bigger strikeout drop at home.)

However, the Astros were the only team on that list that significantly reduced
their strikeouts both at home and on the road. Just one other team cut its
whiffs in both places. And that was the 1961-62 Angels — a franchise in just
its second year of existence, and one that reduced its strikeouts on the road
by only 11.

So essentially, STATS found essentially no parallel between the 2017 Astros and
any other team in the live-ball era, in the ability to appreciably cut down on
strikeouts everywhere — but by a much larger margin at home. We’ve seen no
evidence, from the commissioner’s report, that the Astros were bringing their
trash cans with them on the road. Yet a different form of illegal
sign-stealing, using video feeds in the replay room, was available to the team
on the road as well as at home. Once again, however, the exact impact of any of
those methods is virtually impossible to measure.

總之，太空人的三振率在主客場都大幅下降，尤其在主場下降的幅度更是讓人驚異。由於在
客場也可能有種種的作弊方式，所以作弊帶來的確切影響仍然是難以準確估計的。

Their ability to stop chasing  他們不再追打壞球了 

It sounds like such a simple goal: Let’s swing aggressively at the strikes and
stop chasing the pitches that aren’t strikes. It’s what every team aspires to
— but only the best teams do consistently.
It just happened to become one of the things the 2017 Astros did best.

We sifted through the Statcast data, and here is some of what we found:

「積極攻擊好球帶內的球，並不要追打壞球」。聽起來簡單的目標，但只有最好的球隊才能
穩定地做到這點。而這剛好是2017年的太空人做得最好的一件事。
我們從資料中發現以下事實:

‧In 2016, the Astros swung at 36 percent of all the breaking balls they saw
at home that were below the bottom of the strike zone. In 2017, they
dramatically improved that rate — by chasing only 27 percent of those same
pitches.

2016年，太空人在主場追打了36%好球帶下緣的壞球，而2017年，他們戲劇性地進步了: 只
追打了27%好球帶下緣的壞球。

‧On the road, they were actually better, though they didn’t improve as much
compared with the year before. In 2016, they chased 27 percent of those
breaking balls below the zone away from home. In 2017, they pared that rate
down to 25 percent.

在客場，他們其實表現得更好，但進步幅度不如主場來的大。2016年，他們在客場追打了
27%好球帶下緣的壞球，而2017年則進步到25%


‧ Four of their returning hitters made remarkable improvements in their
ability to lay off those pitches. Marwin González went, incredibly, from a
40-percent swing rate to just 10 percent … Carlos Correa improved from 27
percent to 15 percent … Jake Marisnick dropped from 30 percent to 13 percent …
 George Springer went from 18 percent to 12 percent. We’ll mention here that
according to Tony Adams’ work at signstealingscandal.com, those four players
were among the Astros who were at bat for the highest percentage of trash-can
bangs that season. And there were more of those bangs while González was
hitting (147) than any other hitter. But this is just one more occasion where we
’ll refrain from drawing any firm conclusions from those seemingly related
facts.

2016就在太空人的球員中，其中4人的進步格外顯著:
Marwin González : 從40%的追打率降到10%
Carlos Correa: 從27%降到15%
Jake Marisnick: 從30%降到13%
George Springer: 從18%降到12%

同時，在之前美國鄉民整理的資料中，這4人也是打擊前Bang聲最多的其中幾人

‧ We also analyzed the data from signstealingscandal.com to see how the Astros
’ “Reach Rate” (i.e, balls swung at that were definitively outside the
strike zone) changed at home after the trash-can banging began in late May. As
a team, the Astros reduced their rate of pitch-chasing — from more than 25
percent before the banging to under 20 percent afterward. Obviously, not all
players used the can-banging assistance the same way, and
signstealingscandal.com‘s research indicated some players barely used it at
all. And that usage also varied from game to game, as the chart below —
 breaking down that Reach Rate by game — would indicate.

我們又比較了在Bang聲在五月底出現之前跟出現之後的資料。我們發現在Bang聲出現前，追
打率超過25%，而出現後，追打率下降到低於20%

Overall, the Astros improved their knack for laying off non-strikes during the
period in which the banging scheme was in effect. The numbers show that. Let’s
say this again, though: Whether that’s a clear cause and effect is impossible
to determine with any certainty.

總之，在Bang聲期間太空人的追打壞球率顯然較低，但我們仍然不能肯定地說Bang聲一定就
是造成差異的原因。

Their ability to crush the strikes 他們把好球打得更遠

Of course, the best hitters in the game do more than merely lay off the pitches
that aren’t strikes. What really matters is how much damage they inflict on
the pitches that are strikes. And Statcast data tells us the 2017 Astros
improved their ability to unleash that damage more than any other offense in
the game.

當然了，只是能放掉壞球還稱不上是好的打者，重點還是在攻擊好球帶內的球並對對手造成
傷害。而數據顯示2017年的太空人在此能力上的進步再次高居榜首。

‧ In 2016, the Astros slugged only .438 on breaking balls inside the zone at
home. In 2017, they slugged .508 at home on those same pitches.

2016年，太空人在主場隊好球帶內的變化球長打率是 .438。2017年則進步到了 .508

‧ But the Astros made just as big an improvement on fastballs. In 2016, they
slugged .503 on fastballs inside the zone at home. The next year, they spiked
that slugging percentage, on the same pitches, by 74 points — to .577.

他們對好球帶內速球的攻擊進步幅度也一樣大: 長打率從2016的 .503進步到2017的 .577
---- 進步了7.4個百分點

‧ So how many other teams slugged at least 70 points better at home that year
against both fastballs and breaking balls, compared with the year before? Yes,
that would be none.

所以2017年還有多少其他隊伍對好球帶內的速球與變化球的長打率都比前一年提高7個百分
點以上的? 沒錯，完全沒有。

‧ We should note that the Astros also made big jumps in games away from
Houston. Against breaking balls in the strike zone on the road, they went from
a .461 slugging percentage to .574. On fastballs, they went from .540 to .602.

他們在客場對好球帶內的球的攻擊能力進步幅度同樣驚人。變化球的長打率從 .461提升到
 .574 ; 速球則從 .540進步到 .602


‧ Overall, their team slugging percentage against breaking balls in the strike
zone — home and away — jumped by nearly 100 points, from .450 to .544.
Curious how many other teams improved their slugging against breaking balls
that much in 2017? Once again, it was zero. And as this chart of the four
seasons from 2015-18 shows, the Astros’ slugging against those same pitches
didn’t reach that level in any other season.

加總來看，太空人在2017年對好球帶內變化球的長打率從 .450提高到了 .544 ---- 將近提
升了10個百分點。好奇還有其他隊進步這麼多的嗎? 答案依然是沒有。而在2015 – 2018年
間，太空人從來沒有一年像2017一樣這麼有效地攻擊這類球路。

Again, don’t lose sight of the fact that this was a team that upgraded its
lineup significantly that season — and specifically emphasized this exact
approach, to be more aggressive and do more damage on pitches in the zone. But
there is also no disputing that no team improved its ability to execute that
approach that season. How much did it help that they often knew what pitch was
coming? That’s something Statcast can’t tell us.

我們還是得再次提醒讀者，別忘了2017年太空人的打線相對2016有顯著的補強，而他們也特
別強調要改變打擊策略。但無可爭論的是，在2017年沒有其他任何一支球隊在這項能力上進
步這麼多。偷暗號對他們的幫助究竟有多少? 這是數據沒辦法告訴我們的。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 24.99.0.224 (美國)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1581563349.A.6D5.html
推 polanco: 第二波魔球革命真厲害
文章後面還整理了一些個別球員的數據, 包括Springer, Correa, Gattis, Marisnick,
和Altuve。有空的話再補完
※ 編輯: ianshadow (24.99.0.224 美國), 02/13/2020 11:13:41
推 ken720331: 被研究了
推 madboy: 太鼓革命
推 aborwang: 推
推 seekforever: 雖然我襪迷，但也想看18紅襪有沒有類似的研究
→ seekforever: Marvin追打率從40%降到10%太扯了
推 whhw: 推
推 Geel: 改變打擊策略-->先Bang再打
※ 編輯: ianshadow (24.99.0.224 美國), 02/13/2020 11:52:11
推 kenkenken31: 三振大降，長打大升，作弊賺死了
推 globekiller: 對照馬文岡隔年表現和調查結果說18年開始發現沒用
→ globekiller: 應該是Bang太爽被各隊提防了
推 pneumo: 翻譯推
推 sh3312037: 推，作弊印記應該烙印在球員紀錄上
→ sustainer123: BANGBANG印
推 mattaus: 恥辱印記，太鼓達人
**應madboy版友要求修掉推文**
推 catsondbs: Gonzalez賺到大約幫雙城QQ
推 shepherdy: 太鼓打起來
→ iambiaggi: m版友可能要請原po修改一下推文，本版禁止注音文。
推 ganhua: 太鼓達人BANG BANG BANG
推 ging1995: 笑死 沒作弊的平行時空有夠酸
推 ymcheung: u每隻球隊都作弊 (TM)」
→ tamakochan: 對啊  不說都忘了還有那時還有青木  記者快去問青木啊
→ tamakochan: 看日本人會怎麼回答這個問題  還有他打擊時有沒有鼓聲
→ tamakochan: 這問題青木要是回答得不好  我看他就準備退休了
推 jewish123: 推 阿土伯有夠噁
其實各種數據來看，是不支持阿土伯有參與作弊的喔
文章之後列出的個人數據裡面有包括阿土伯，是為了說明從數字來看阿土伯不像是有參與

推 Rayshief: 應該18年開始大家就大概知道也在防了
→ Rayshief: 但是bang以外一定還有進化版的東西
推 saiulbb: 身為2017年挺空迷的路人迷跟躲迷道歉 幹
→ tamakochan: 查了一下  青木在太空人的成績是他在MLB各隊中最爛的
→ tamakochan: 然後大限前他就被交易了  這代表什麼？  科科
※ 編輯: ianshadow (24.99.0.224 美國), 02/13/2020 13:02:56
推 TZephyr: 比吃禁藥還強啊
推 ASEVE: 結果球員沒事，處罰又輕
推 youngluke: 阿偷伯
→ saiulbb: 印象中McCann不支持Beltran這種骯髒步
推 Hans14: 青木有趣, BB/SO在太鼓人反而退步　XD
→ yankees733: 太鼓人*
→ alcard22: 禁藥落伍了
推 siliver: 科技樹差距到一個程度效果就出來了
推 ohmyya: 再不認錯的人應該要罰坐電椅了吧
推 a2156700: 吃藥練得像狗 不如想辦法怎麼即時傳遞暗號不被抓到
推 Roshiel: 我對於阿土伯有一種比較瘋狂的想法
→ Roshiel: 既然大數據並沒有顯示阿土伯有明顯的作弊，那就有可能是
→ Roshiel: 1.阿土伯是清白的 2.阿土伯其實是用另一種方式再偷暗號
→ Roshiel: 阿土伯在打了老查一罰HR送太鼓人進WS後很誇張的表示不能
→ Roshiel: 扯他的衣服，可能是 1.他聽老婆的話不能坦胸露肚 2.他跟
→ Roshiel: 隊友並不是使用同一種作弊系統，以至於隊友不知道不能拉
→ Roshiel: 扯他衣服導致作弊露餡
→ Roshiel: 如果是2.的話，就能解釋為何阿土伯打擊時，bang%比較少
→ Roshiel: 隊友可能不知道他是如何作弊(保密工夫好)，只知道他不需
→ Roshiel: 要bang。再來就是，目前聯盟調查的都是2017年的敲打垃圾
→ Roshiel: 桶事件，但不代表阿土伯可能在16年甚至更早就有偷暗號
→ Roshiel: 以至於17年後的大數據改變不支持阿土伯作弊
→ Roshiel: 所以再回到開頭的選項 1.阿土伯清白 2.阿土伯有作弊
→ Roshiel: 請問你會相信哪一種??
當然是相信阿土伯清白
確實，數據不能完全證明甚麼
(別忘了，即使這麼誇張的數據，邏輯上也不能100%肯定太空人就是有作弊)
目前唯一的指控依據就是不願讓隊友扯衣服
但這有太多可能性了，這種質疑方法根本就是陰謀論

你說16年之前阿土伯就自己在用電子設備偷暗號，說真的啦，我覺得根本不太可能
用電子儀器偷暗號如果球隊和隊友沒幫忙根本就不可能做到
而別忘了如果沒用電子儀器，嘗試破解暗號完全是合法的行為

你只強調如果用別的方法偷可以解釋為甚麼沒有Bang聲
但完全沒作弊也可以解釋啊，而且是更直接的解釋XD
所以我還是那句話，在客觀數字完全沒有作弊跡象的情形下，我覺得相信清白才是合理的

推 spppeter: 魔鼓革命
推 Roshiel: 這也能解釋為何阿土伯堅持不肯道歉的原因，因為1.他根本
→ Roshiel: 沒作弊  2.他的作弊方式根本沒有被抓到
→ Roshiel: 他幹嘛要道歉??
兩種原因都是同樣合理的解釋
但沒有任何其他跡象顯示他有作弊的情況下(尤其數字都分析得這麼徹底了)
我選擇相信他是清白的

推 nsx: IG上阿土伯都有PO赤裸上半身的照片阿，老婆怎麼沒意見?
→ ennakura: 棒球員很迷信的 搞不好他那天穿老婆胸罩當幸運物
推 phenom42: #Five hour banergy
推 hhll5566: 太精采了
→ hhll5566: 今年休賽季竟然可以延燒這麼久
推 sustainer123: 誰叫習主席愛禁評 大家一起開趴體吵起來
推 web946719: 衣服扯開是老婆內衣 想像了一下那畫面 尷尬爆
推 Roshiel: 如果阿土伯真的是清白沒作弊的，那他真的有一個高潔高尚
→ Roshiel: 的人格，就算休息區內鑼鼓喧騰，他也能潔身自愛不接受隊
→ Roshiel: 友的打鼓助威。醜聞爆發時，儘管自己被冤枉，依然冷靜自
→ Roshiel: 持不會噴口水反擊。如果他真的清白，可以出書了
欲加之罪何患無辭
都這麼多分析數據，很多人的成績也都被發現有問題
然而阿土伯的成績完全沒有任何可疑的跡象
對他的質疑根本就是先射箭再畫靶
大家只是因為他成績很好就先入為主覺得他有作弊

這種質疑方法的話，全聯盟又不是沒人打得比他好
怎麼不去懷疑Trout有沒有作弊XD

推 Edison1174: 跳蛋
推 fanntony2002: 推
※ 編輯: ianshadow (24.99.0.224 美國), 02/13/2020 18:59:17
推 sustainer123: 他也不是完全沒Bang 是bang%比較低
→ sustainer123: bang%再低 就算只有一次也是作弊吧?
推 Roshiel: 對啊，現在就是聯盟裝死不肯公佈詳細名單，就算真無辜沒
→ Roshiel: 作弊的球員都會被一起拖下水
→ Roshiel: 阿土伯就算是一個代表人物，我也很想相信在太空人球隊裡
→ Roshiel: 是存在有良心的人，現在聯盟做法就是拉全隊一起下去
→ youngpaper: 共犯結構 信者恆信囉
推 popoliii: 太空人全隊都是共犯
推 ymcheung: 投手不用聽 bang 也是共犯
推 nsx: 之前阿土伯是太空人隊裡少數喜歡的球員，而且他的身高打出這
→ nsx: 種成績真的很勵志，但聯盟不願意公布詳細名單和嚴重程度，那
→ nsx: 只能全隊一起黑了，就算成績顯示作弊對他數據影響不大也一樣
→ nsx: 幾乎是全隊都參與作弊或者說都知情的情況下，我不覺得有誰可
→ nsx: 以說是無辜的，要說他無辜只有一種方式，聯盟出正規調查報告
→ nsx: 說清楚作弊事件完整權責，各個球員參與程度，不然以後這批太
→ nsx: 空人打者只會被全部視為作弊者而已
推 jeter8695: 真的是有夠噁心
→ ennakura: 就算一輩子只作一次弊 如果是在"幫助隊友打進ws"的打席
→ ennakura: 意義可跟平常打爆菜鳥投手當消遣完全不同
→ ennakura: 當然我相信他那天只是穿老婆胸罩而已>.^
推 vata: 我倒認為阿土伯這年的表現相對重要
→ vata: 事情爆發後，如果他的成績還是能跟這幾年一樣維持水平
→ vata: 沒有足夠的數據及證據證明有作弊，質疑聲浪自然會小一些
→ vata: 但是如果成績下滑許多，這時間自然會有很多人拿來做關聯
推 vata: 剛講完就道歉了XD
推 Roshiel: 問題是爛主席這種罰則，你會認為作弊的人會全部收手當
→ Roshiel: 乖寶寶嗎??
→ Roshiel: 我們就來看看今年比賽會不會一開場捕手暗號就是二壘上
推 sustainer123: 反正不管今年誰作弊 吃藥也好 太鼓也罷
→ Roshiel: 有跑者的複雜暗號，而且連投手都要帶暗號小抄
→ sustainer123: 我都不會酸 反正聯盟不罰 鼓勵作弊啊
→ Roshiel: 春訓要開始了，看來聯盟也完全沒有打算配置耳麥的措施
→ Roshiel: 我只能說今年的捕手都應該要加薪
→ ennakura: 表達抗議最好的方式就是大家一起作弊
推 vata: 球迷一起作弊啦，我相信太空人作客，觀眾席會多一堆鼓在旁
→ vata: 邊敲
※ 編輯: ianshadow (24.99.0.224 美國), 02/14/2020 02:51:37
→ KZHenry: 我只能說 阿偷伯 不可能獨善其身
→ ianshadow: 爆料的Fiers都說了不是所有人都參與了，還在不可能獨
→ ianshadow: 善其身
推 Roshiel: 現在阿土伯就是走向兩個極端，要馬他就是個潔身自愛、
→ Roshiel: 隊友打鼓他說NO、聽老婆話不在觀眾前坦胸露肚教壞小朋友
→ Roshiel: 、就算被冤枉也不會噴口水的聖人。不然就是全部相反
推 Nuey: 這件事情可以和邦茲一樣以後講很久了 有無吃藥vs有無作弊
推 youngluke: 阿偷伯一樣有聽到bang啊 團隊還有聯盟認證
→ ianshadow: 阿土伯並不是沒有反駁，早就嚴正否認過了，即使他沒做
→ ianshadow: 弊，他現在的行為跟聖人也扯不上邊，不須要自己幫他冠
→ ianshadow: 個名號暗示他不可能沒作弊
→ ianshadow: 總之現在沒有任何跡象指向他有作弊的可能，不過要相信
→ ianshadow: 有罪推定原則我只能說也是個人自由
推 lordi: 垃圾隊
→ ianshadow: 聯盟調查說沒有證據、成績跟2016沒什麼差別、bang聲統
→ ianshadow: 計顯示他打擊前幾乎沒有bang聲，這麼多事實都不看，然
→ ianshadow: 後只看到他不讓人扯衣服就咬定他一定有作弊，根本就只
→ ianshadow: 是心裡希望他有作弊好找個人來罵吧。
推 youngluke: 原來如此 看來罰款罰選秀真是太對不起太鼓人了 阿土伯
→ youngluke: 打擊的時候絕對沒有一絲一毫的bang聲 就算有公正的阿偷
→ youngluke: 也絕對沒有利用鼓聲的打算 沒有對不起球迷也要意思意思
→ youngluke: 打太極公然道歉一下 請不要隨意誹謗
罰款罰選秀非常合理，因為數字上看起來太空人確實有作弊
但Fiers也說了不是全隊都有參與
而支持阿土伯有參與的證據一個都沒有
所有目前出來的證據都是比較支持他沒有參與的
選擇不聽不看，反正說他有作弊就能大嘴特嘴說洋基本來根本不會被打那支再見HR
一口咬定他「一定」有作弊，這確實就是隨意誹謗

然後一直說只要有一次bang聲就是作弊的
是不是忘了bang聲的統計是球迷看影片一球一球聽聲音整理出來的?
這麼多打數，偶爾有幾球前有敲擊聲，你確定那一定是敲垃圾桶的聲音?
有些打者出現敲擊的次數太頻繁了，球場噪音不可能那麼巧每次擊球前都出現
這時候我們才認為這個打者很可疑

就像你要抓學生是否有作弊偷看旁邊的答案(假設兩人考的是不同考卷)
50題選擇題裡面有1題答案一樣，你會說這就是他有作弊的證據嗎?
不可能，一定是太多題答案都一樣，沒作弊剛好發生這種情形的可能性太低
才構成支持他有作弊的證據
這道理是一樣的

那個統計不能提供阿土伯有沒有用其他方法作弊的資訊
但是絕對能證明他沒有用垃圾桶敲擊作弊
再說一次
bang聲統計、聯盟調查結果、與2016成績比較，都是比較支持他沒作弊
支持他有作弊的客觀證據  一個都沒有
但如果不聽不看，覺得我說他有就是有，那當然也是個人自由

推 alcard22: 成績清不清白我想已經不是重點了，聯盟的高舉輕放的處
→ alcard22: 置，加上全隊一開始幾乎沒有悔意，也沒什麼人受到懲處
→ alcard22: ，大多數對這個人、甚至整隊的打者的觀感，很多人應該
→ alcard22: 都是回不去了
推 alcard22: 而且阿土伯自己似乎也不介意作弊拿冠就是了
※ 編輯: ianshadow (24.99.0.224 美國), 02/14/2020 18:54:16
※ 編輯: ianshadow (24.99.0.224 美國), 02/14/2020 19:02:45
→ Roshiel: 推原PO理性認真
→ youngluke: 罰款罰選秀，因為聯盟調查出來它們就是黑的。Fiers當然
→ youngluke: 說不是全隊，少數人連打席都沒摸到幾個，跟開口說不是
→ youngluke: 每一場都有這種廢話差不多。間接證據頂多可以認為阿偷
→ youngluke: 被聽到的一堆bang沒有跟別人山積那樣多，然而他還是這
→ youngluke: 支作弊隊伍的代表之一。如果他真的獨善其身，他或其他
→ youngluke: 人直接來幫他背書他是特別白的就好，可惜這支球隊到現
→ youngluke: 在連道歉發言都只會避重就輕，完全只會火上加油而已
→ youngluke: 。2019護航方炮口統一的就先不深入，畢竟只是放羊的孩
→ youngluke: 子
推 Roshiel: 應該說太空人已經是官方認證的作弊球隊，現在扯無罪推論
→ Roshiel: 已經不適合了吧，反而是反過來要證明阿土伯沒有作弊
→ Roshiel: 當然整體大數據看起來阿土伯的作弊"痕跡"不像隊友那麼明
→ Roshiel: 顯。當然解釋的方式有若干種，就看你相信什麼了
→ Roshiel: 就像CPBL的米迪亞一樣，阿土伯要像周董那樣洗白並讓人尊
→ Roshiel: 敬，他還需要很多的時間跟證據
→ ymcheung: Jose Asterisk
推 abcde2048: 鄧蒔陽也沒有打假球
→ abcde2048: Tony Kemp是唯一沒有收到任何鼓聲 的