Re: [情報] KLaw mock draft

[azlbf (上邪!我欲與君相知)]

補一下完整的theathletic.com上Keith Law對狀元的完整評價

還有一些補充



狀元

KL:

1. Baltimore Orioles: Jacob Berry, 3B/OF, LSU
The current betting has the Orioles taking a college position player and
cutting a deal with him, as they did when picking second (2020) and fifth
(2021) in the last two drafts, in part because they don’t believe that Druw
Jones is head-and-shoulders above the remainder of the draft class. I will
point out, however, that GM Mike Elias had the first overall pick in 2019 and
took the best available player, Adley Rutschman; he had it three times while
with Houston, and took the best available player twice (neither of which
worked out). The other time was the most analogous to this year: the Astros
thought four players were all roughly equal in value, or close enough to
treat them as such and try to strike the best deal among them. They ended up
with Carlos Correa, who was, in fact, the best player in the draft. That
said, I think Berry is a future DH and wouldn’t take him anywhere near this
high. The Orioles could also go with Brooks Lee, the Cal Poly shortstop who’
ll at least stay on the dirt and can really hit.

金鳥會如同他們之前的操作一樣，選擇一位大學選手

一方面是因為他們不認為呼聲最高的Druw Jones有這麼優秀

(沒講出的那一方面就是他會非常貴)

而GM在類似的選秀經驗很有一套，但KL也拿Adley Rutschman當例子說明

金鳥的策略並不是一昧的省錢  而是選擇最佳的選擇


另一個跟今年很像的例子是2012年，當時在太空人拿到狀元籤

並用他選走Correa 當時震驚一堆媒體，因為甚至沒有一家媒體把Correa

放到前三名(最佳是KL排他第5) 但事實證明Correa就是最好的那個

註:雖然當時的其他熱門除了Mark Appel(當年第八 但隔年第1)
其他幾位也都很優秀 包含Byron Buxton Mike Zunino Kevin Gausman

金鳥還有一個其他選擇是Brooks Lee 他是加州理工的游擊手
(他也是MLB預測的狀元)

Scouting report: “On bat alone, Berry would be a top-10 pick, as the
transfer from the University of Arizona has mashed for two years, and
drastically cut his strikeout rate even with the move to LSU and a less
favorable home park … He has plus power and good pitch recognition, showing
no trouble the few times he’s seen good velocity this year. He has no
position, though – he’s been well below average at third and in left field.
”

球探報告 : 僅考慮打擊面，Berry是前10好的打者 ，考慮到他轉學到投手球場後

依然可以大幅降低三振率，表示他除了有強大的力量外也有很好的球場適應能力

可惜不管是三壘還是外野防守都低於水準，這會導致他沒有位置可去





而今年狀元熱門在去年一整年都是Druw Jones  - Andruw Jones的兒子

他與Elijah Green, Termarr Johnson, Jackson Holliday

大致上被認為是今年的TOP1 CLASS

直到金鳥確定拿到狀元籤 XD

所以對Berry跟Lee 如果不是狀元 可能就是第6順位之後了





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推 a0987761110: 金鳥對Rutch這種明顯好一個層級的no-doubter不會省錢
→ a0987761110:  如果沒到這種程度就是選球探喜歡又剛好便宜的 但之
→ a0987761110: 前被Kjerstad雷到還是有點怕= =
→ a88152660: Kjerstad得心肌炎也很倒楣就是了 心肺功能受影響可能連
→ a88152660: 球都打不了
→ LucasDuda: Kjerstad的水準當省錢的標的也不是很理想lol
推 canisty: 這六位大概就是今年的top1了， 我魚剛好第六順位撿最後
→ canisty: 的XD
→ canisty: Parada不知道怎麼看，看官網的球探報告好像有能否繼續蹲
→ canisty: 捕的疑慮
→ yucw: 金鳥的養成...還是選地板高一點的好了
推 fountainNess: Parada就攻擊型捕手，最好應該也是平均以下
→ fountainNess: 不過他已經25轟了，整個大學前幾名的成績
→ fountainNess: 看過他蹲捕幾場就頗不靈敏
→ fountainNess: 阿不過我猜他順位>Berry
→ LucasDuda: 要能打又能蹲那選Susac啊XD
推 whhw: 推