[外絮] DeanOnDraft關於Michael Porter的看法

[autechre (Untilted)]

原文:https://deanondraft.com/2017/06/24/2018-preview-is-michael-porter-a-future-nba-star/

＊這是Dean Demakis在6月時的舊文了，雖然這觀察僅就Nike Hoop高峰賽事的觀
察來看Michae Porter Jr也不是特別有洞見，但因為他的身分(他是一個運動賭
徒)與和主流意見顯然不同的看法所以還是轉錄一下，僅略譯提到Porter與
Doncic的部分


2018 Preview: Is Michael Porter a Future NBA Star?

Now that the 2017 draft is over, attention shifts to 2018 where
Michael Porter Jr. is battling Luka Doncic for #1 overall, where
league executives are allegedly split. I decided to get a taste of
Michael Porter Jr. by watching the Nike Hoop Summit where he led team
USA with 19 points.

Michael Porter Jr. Scouting Report

Michael Porter Jr. 球探報告

Porter is a 6’10” knockdown shooter who rebounds well and has decent
athleticism. So it is easy to see why he is labeled as a possible #1,
as that baseline of skill makes it sound like he has Kevin Durant
upside.

Porter是一個6'10有著不錯體能與籃板能力的射手，所以會被視為可能的狀元人
選是很正常的，畢竟基本能力聽起來就像有KD的上限一樣

But his warts are apparent in watching him play. He is not
particularly smooth, explosive, or advanced with the handle so he
struggled to get by defenders and often drove directly into the crowd
and hoisted some awkward looking shots. On several occasions he was
able to flail and draw free throws, but it appears that and pulling up
for jumpers are the only creation he can muster off the dribble.

但是他的問題在看他比賽時很明顯，他處理球不是特別流暢、有爆發性或突出，
所以在應付防守者時有困難，常直直殺到人群中後勉強出手。有些時候他憢幸得
到罰球機會，但看起來急停跳投是他運球時唯一能使用的武器

He does not have good passing instincts, as while he is a willing
passer it is with the objective of moving the ball rather than setting
up a teammate. For all of the goodness that his shooting presents on
offense, his shaky instincts shown in his slashing and passing are
going to detract from his shooting goodness.

他沒有好的傳球本能，雖然他願意傳但那是出於幫助球的流動而不是幫隊友創造
機會，他不怎麼樣的切入與傳球本領讓他的投射能力失色不少

Defensively he has the size and mobility to make an occasional play,
but his awareness is not great as he had lapses where he got caught
watching the ball or out of position. On the upside has has great
height and moves well and was able to use his tools be useful at times
, so it is difficult to judge his defense as either good or bad based
on this game. But based on his limited instincts he does not appear to
be a stopper on this end and has clear downside.

防守上因為他有尺寸與移動能力所以偶爾有些亮點，但他的意識不是特別出色在
好幾回合當監視器或根本失位。就上限來說有時候他能利用不錯的高度與移動能
力並妥善利用他的優勢，所以只看一場比賽很難看出他的防守是好是壞。但是出
於有限的本能他看起來不會成為一個大鎖且防守上明顯是個劣勢


Overall Sentiment

綜合感受

Porter strongly reminisces of my first time viewing Andrew Wiggins,
where it stunned me that people viewed him as a tanking candidate.
They have a number of marked similarities as prospects, as Porter
essentially has two inches of height and better shooting in lieu of
Wiggins’ otherworldly athleticism.

Porter強烈的讓我想起第一眼看到Andrew Wiggins時，人們把他視為開坦的目標
，這真是嚇壞我惹。他們有好些相似處，只不過Porter高一些投籃好一點，而
Wiggins有外星人體能罷了

This was just one game, and I cannot yet rule out that he will be good
. But elite stars normally stand out to my eye immediately: Joel
Embiid and Lonzo Ball were love at first sight, and Karl Anthony Towns
, Ben Simmons, and Markelle Fultz were extremely attractive at first
blush (even if I have my doubts about the latter two, their talent is
undeniable).

這只不過是一場比賽，我不能排除他成功的可能性。但精英球星通常第一印象馬
上就令我眼界大開: Joel Embiid與Lonzo Ball就是這樣，KAT、Ben Simmons與
Markelle Fultz第一眼也超吸睛的(雖然我對後兩位有些懷疑，但他們的天賦是
不能否認的)

Porter is in a class with Andrew Wiggins of putting me in shock that
people can look at a prospect like this and somehow believe he is
better than prospects like Luka Doncic or Lonzo Ball. I would bet
every dollar I own that he is not.

Porter與Wiggins讓我震驚的就是人們看著他們這樣的prospect居然認為他們會
比Luka Doncic或Lonzo Ball還要好，我會跟人賭身家他不是這樣

I am not going to call him a likely bust based on a one game eye test,
as Andrew Wiggins could have been pretty good if he was able to
develop better from his rookie year. But it is difficult to argue that
the hype machine be given any benefit of the doubt to treat Porter as
anything remotely special this early.

我不會只因為一場比賽就說他很有可能是水貨，畢竟Wiggins如果在新人年養成
的好些的話也許他已經相當出色了。但是宣傳這麼早就在吹捧Porter多麼獨一無
二並沒有什麼好處

No Proof of Goodness Means More Downside

沒有證據證明優點意謂著更多的缺點

1251047

The fact of the matter is that the draft hype machine has not exactly
been nailing NCAA top 3’s a year ahead of time lately

事實上宣傳機器近年來在提前一年預言NCAA前三順位其實不怎麼厲害

2014: Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle
2015: Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson
2016: Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere, Jaylen Brown
2017: Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Josh Jackson

8 of those 12 have playing at least one NBA season, and all look
disappointing relative to hype. Simmons, Tatum, and Jackson are the
only ones with clear star potential, and none of them are guarantees.

12位中有8個至少打了一個賽季，且看起來都較謠言要令人失望。Simmons、
Tatum與Jackson是唯一有明顯的球星潛質的，然而都還未有保證(文章完成在
2017年6月)

If you randomly select a player from this pile, he is more likely than
not to be an ordinary, meh NBA player. It is extremely difficult to
predict NBA success without observation vs. NCAA or professional
competition. Intuitively Porter, Ayton, and Bamba do not seem any
better than prior early top 3’s, and are each more likely to be below
average NBA players than good starters.

如果你從上述名單隨機挑一個球員，很可能他更有機會像是一個普通NBA球員。
在沒有經過NCAA與職業層級對抗的觀察，要預測NBA成功的可能性是很難的。直
覺上來說Porter、Ayton與Bamba沒有比前一梯TOP3要好，且更有可能達不到出色
先發的水準(低於聯盟平均)

How Does Porter Compare to 2017?

與2017比較起來?

Everybody who thinks Porter should go #1 in 2017 is crazy. It would be
terrible if any of Porter, Ayton, or Bamba were chosen in this year’s
top 6, as it was a especially good top 6 (Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Jackson,
Fox, Isaac) who all showed strong potential vs. NCAA competition
compared to 19 y/o’s who have been feasting on 17 and 18 y/o’s.

任何人會以為Porter放在2017應該是狀元，那他一定是瘋了。如果Porter、
Ayton或Bamba任何一個在今年前6被選上那就太可怕了，因為今年前6非常的出色
(Fultz、Ball、Tatum、Jackson、Fox、Isaac)且在對抗NCAA對手時表現出強烈
的潛力，而不是在19歲時還在霸凌17、8歲的對手

I would also take Real Madrid star Luka Doncic over all 3 prospects
combined, as he has been one of the best players in the second best
professional league behind the NBA, all at a younger age than these
guys as high school seniors. It may seem crazy now, but in a few years
it will not.

我也會為了選皇馬的Luka Doncic而跳過所有前三新秀，他已經在NBA外世上第二
好的聯盟成為最佳球員，甚至比這些傢伙在高中最後一年時還年輕。這現在看
起來也許很狂，但幾年後可能就不是這樣了

I know these are many piping hot takes at once, but if nothing else
they will be fun to re-visit in a few years. On to the rankings:

我知道這些是同時期炙手可勢的人選，但若無意外幾年後再來回顧他們應該會很
有趣。


Tier 1: Basketball God

第一級: 籃球之神

1. Luka Doncic 6’8〃 Real Madrid

I still need to watch him before singing his praises too loudly, but
he is 6’8〃, athletic, super skilled, and smart and has clear
GOAT potential. It is difficult to see him failing, and there is no
reasonable argument that anybody else should even sniff #1.

在高分貝造神前我還是需要多觀察些他，但他有6'8，有體能(譯:這不太認同)，
技巧超級熟練，而且聰明又有明顯的史上最佳潛力，他要失敗真是有點難，理智
上沒有其它人能成為狀元的原因

Tier 2: Regular Basketball Players

第二級: 普通籃球員

2. Collin Sexton, 6’2〃 Freshman, Alabama

Sexton is the only player in the Hoop Summit who glowed to my eye. He
is incredibly athletic, smooth, and shifty, and has strong potential
as a slasher. He also showed legitimate passing and vision, and can be
a pest on defense and was willing to battle with bigs for rebounds.

It is difficult to get too excited for a 6’2〃 player this far
from the draft, and Sexton does seem to be a risk of taking poor shots
and over gambling on defense. But he is the only player in the Hoop
Summit who looked like a possible future star, so he gets my #2 slot.

3. Wendell Carter, 6’10” Freshman, Duke

Carter was more quiet than I had hoped in the Hoop Summit, but it is
still easy to see him being good. He has a 7’3〃+ wingspan which
gives him potential to play center in the NBA, and he seems to be
above average at everything.

The main thing holding him back from top 3 hype is lack of elite
explosiveness, but he is a good, well rounded basketball player who is
almost a year younger than each of Ayton, Bamba, and Porter.

4. DeAndre Ayton, 7’0〃 Freshman, Arizona

Ayton did not play in the Hoop Summit, so my eyes have yet to qualify
him. I have my doubts about him as he has a reputation for not caring
a ton, but he has monster height and a 7’5〃 wingspan with real
talent, so I will see how he looks for Arizona before passing firm
judgment.

5. Mohamed Bamba, 7’0〃 Freshman, Texas

Bamba has a 7’9〃 wingspan and projects to be a force
defensively, and he did look impressive on that end at the Hoop Summit
. Unfortunately, he looked like a zero offensively as he cannot handle
and his touch around the rim looked bad.

On the upside he can make FT’s and the announcers were saying his
touch is normally good, so if he can at least make shots offensively
he has upside to be a Rudy Gobert or Tyson Chandler type.

6. Michael Porter Jr., 6’10” Freshman, Missouri

As I have detailed, I do not believe he is great. Maybe he is
nevertheless good, but at this juncture there is no compelling reason
to believe that he is anything other than an ordinary top 10 prospect.

同我已詳述的，我不相信他有特別出色，也許他仍然算不錯，但在目前來說沒有
具說服力的理由去相信他會比普通前十新秀出色

That said this is a low confidence opinion, and it will be easier to
have a grasp on him when he plays for Missouri. By draft time it is
possible I will move him up into the top 3, or he may be out of the
top 10. It could go either way.

這樣說不太可信，所以等他到密蘇里打球時會更清楚他的狀況。選秀時他也許會
在我的TOP3或前十外，都有可能(譯:有點廢話 XDD)

7. Ethan Happ, 6’9〃 Junior, Wisconsin

Happ hardly has any draft hype, as he is only ranked 36th on
DraftExpress. The knock on him is that he is a traditional white PF
who cannot shoot and lacks explosive athleticism, so he is getting
overlooked as a draft prospect.

But people are wrong to overlook him, as he is a stud at everything
but shooting. He may not be a leaper but he moves his feet well, and
at 6’9〃 he is an elite handler, passer, rebounder, and
defensive player who excels at everything except scoring from a
distance. At age 21 with a 57% FT you have to be worried about his
shot, and it is genuinely a major wart.

But given how elite the rest of his profile is, I would happily gamble
on it all working out.

8. DeAnthony Melton, 6’4〃 Sophomore, USC

DeAnthony Melton completely stuffed the statsheet as an 18 year old
freshman, as he racked up rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. He
has exceptional instincts to go with great length and quickness, and
has the foundation to be a star combo guard.

The downside is that he still has a long way to go to fit in
offensively as he posted just a 33rd percentile half court efficiency
on low usage as a freshman. He still is not a reliable 3P shooter at
28% and he cannot yet create against a set defense.

If Melton makes a major offensive leap as a sophomore he has star
upside, otherwise he is an intriguing role player.

While Melton and Happ have their share of flaws, they also have unique
strengths to help them overcome. Don’t be surprised when one of the
duo is a better pro than Michael Porter Jr.

9. Robert Williams, 6’9〃 Sophomore, Texas A&M

The Aggies had no point guard this past season and all of their
returners badly regressed. Now that they have help at the position,
Williams who excels at moving off the ball and finishing may see a big
sophomore breakout.

10. Miles Bridges, 6’6〃 Sophomore, Michigan St.

Bridges is smooth and athletic, and coming off a good freshman season
for Michigan State where he did a bit of everything.

The only worry with Bridges is that his dimensions are a bit weak as
he last measured 6’6.25〃 with a 6’8.75〃 wingspan. Given
that he also had a mediocre efficiency, he will have extra worry about
his ability to be an efficient NBA player without better combine
measurements.

11. Jarred Vanderbilt, 6’9〃 Freshman, Kentucky

Vanderbilt was the surprise star of the Hoop Summit, and he has strong
feel for the game with excellent rebounding and passing. He also is
able to make plays on defense and is one of the younger members of the
class having recently turned 18.

His downside is that he is a poor shooter, and does not look like an
elite defensive stopper to make his shot worth stomaching. But I would
nevertheless not be surprised if he emerges as the best freshman in
the class.

12. Jaren Jackson Jr., 6’10” Freshman, Michigan St.

Jackson is still just 17 and has good physical tools for a big, and
made a number of impressive finishes and defensive plays in the Hoop
Summit. He also has traces of an outside shot, and is another player
who has potential to climb my board by the draft. While the freshman
class lacks a likely star, there is a significant cluster of players
that have a chance of shining in NCAA.

I only have Jackson 12th because he appears to be a role player with
questionable instincts, but he could just as easily be argued to be
much higher.

13. Troy Brown, 6’6〃 Freshman, Oregon

Brown is the super role player of the class, as he has a 6’11”
wingspan and made some impressive passes for a wing in the Hoop Summit
. He also competed and moved his feet well defensively and at 17 is
one of the youngest players in the class.

He is a prototypical 3 + D wing, as his only weaknesses are lack of
elite athleticism and scoring ability. This does inhibit his upside,
but if teams pay this too much attention he could be a steal in the
back end of the lottery.

Overall I believe the freshman class should be seen as 5 good but not
great prospects battling for #2 (Sexton, Carter, Ayton, Bamba, Porter)
with Vanderbilt, Jackson, and Brown right behind them as role players
with sneaky potential.

Tier 3: The Rest
14. Mikal Bridges, 6’8〃 Junior, Villanova
15. Bruce Brown, 6’4〃 Sophomore, Miami FL
16. Andrew Jones, 6’4〃 Sophomore, Texas
17. Hamidou Diallo, 6’5〃 Freshman, Kentucky
18. Emmanuel Akot, 6’8〃 Freshman, Arizona
19. Mitchell Robinson, 6’11” Freshman, Western Kentucky
20. Markis McDuffie, 6’8〃 Junior, Wichita St.
21. Jacob Evans, 6’6〃 Junior, Cincinnati
22. Rawle Alkins, 6’5〃 Sophomore, Arizona
23. Tyler Hall, 6’4〃 Junior, Montana St.
24. Shamorie Ponds, 6’0〃 Sophomore, St. John’s
25. Gary Clark, 6’7〃 Senior, Cincinnati
26. Trent Forrest, 6’5〃 Sophomore, Florida St.
27. Bryant Crawford, 6’3〃 Junior, Wake Forest
28. John Petty, 6’6〃 Freshman, Alabama
29. Kevin Huerter, 6’6〃 Sophomore, Maryland
30. Kevin Hervey, 6’7〃 Senior, UT Arlington

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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NBA/M.1509297492.A.ADF.html
※ 編輯: autechre (220.136.79.81), 10/30/2017 01:21:00
推 samsam80821 : 其實我也覺得這支還好 看他的影片跟當年KD差有點遠
※ 編輯: autechre (220.136.79.81), 10/30/2017 01:22:30
→ samsam80821 : 協調性跟出手的流暢度差非常得多 也沒有宰制的體能
→ samsam80821 : 真要我說的話像是天分更高一點的巫師隊Porter
噓 meipialoha  : Jackson？球星？
推 samsam80821 : 我自己也會把他排在doncic跟另外兩隻長人後面
推 leo755269   : 應該沒那麼差啦 0.7 KD應該ok 但還是先看大學打怎樣
現在回想起來KD在高中時就已經超級smooth了，記得當年看他大學live得30+20簡直信手拈

來，而且還是在有D.J Augustine敗球的情況下辦到的，整個超強
※ 編輯: autechre (220.136.79.81), 10/30/2017 01:29:20
→ samsam80821 : 老實說我覺得porter得出手不算順暢 尤其是他很常用
→ samsam80821 : 得右切後撤步 重心掌握得不是很好
→ Leeabel     : hype是天花板的意思，不是謠言吧。
應該是宣傳，不過我通常都直接腦補成謠言 0rz 改一下好了
※ 編輯: autechre (220.136.79.81), 10/30/2017 01:38:15
推 samsam80821 : 而且他畢展也比較一般
→ samsam80821 : KD最特別的就是畢展跟投射 所以我一直覺得說他像KD
→ samsam80821 : 很怪 KD最特別的兩個地方都不太像
推 Jigokuhen   : Porter其實晚一年讀大學
→ ksk0516     : 五力分析！
→ leo755269   : 他的投籃姿勢很怪 但中距離急停就是感覺會進
推 samsam80821 : 而且他以NBA標準算短手了其實
推 kuchibu     : 每個歐洲打球的馬都說是美國本土外最好球員加救世主
個人也是覺得Porter實在太overhyped了，看他比賽明明就蠻粗糙的，除了身體條件外沒有

一點贏Doncic，不是說Doncic是救世主，是這些新秀確實沒Doncic好
※ 編輯: autechre (220.136.79.81), 10/30/2017 01:49:27
→ kuchibu     : 波特的亮點除了短手投籃所以姿勢固定很穩
推 noahlin     : 這篇沒有Bagley? 現在評價最高的不是他嗎
→ kuchibu     : 就是鱉角機械式換手運球和打內線的體能
推 lunsanity   : doncic是第二好~那第一好是?
→ kuchibu     : 覺得他比較像魯迪蓋伊版的幹籃哥
推 samsam80821 : Doncic主要是年紀 跟超年齡的球技跟智商
→ samsam80821 : 因為六月的文章所以沒有bagley吧?
→ samsam80821 : gay板的幹籃哥這形容不錯XD
推 jack19931993: Jackson的確很有天賦啊 不只是進攻籃框 還有傳球
→ jack19931993: 場外風波跟場上表現是兩回事 4F
→ samsam80821 : Jackson投籃可以修到如何 應該會決定到他的高度
推 ilovenynyny : 感覺bagley 有點像Towns
推 ilovenynyny : 然後八村壘的預估 好像又往前爬一點了 變14順位
八村給人感覺是下一個shane battier，身體強度可能更好就是，但不是franchise player
※ 編輯: autechre (220.136.79.81), 10/30/2017 02:08:24
推 samsam80821 : bagley我覺得滿像bosh的 肩膀同樣都不寬
推 slamblock15 : 覺得東區打球超穩的，在這年紀有點誇張=="
推 pote85712   : Sexton是U16打中華隊很秋的那個嗎？
推 EndlessYearn: 看到名字還以為是那個破產的管理學大師…
推 Jigokuhen   : 八村大概要讀完大四才會參加選秀吧 據說他英文還是
→ Jigokuhen   : 很差 要融入NBA環境可能很吃力
推 YU0158      : 沒有北美第一PG、打爆Sexton的Trevon Duval?
推 Raskolnikov : Knox也不錯 都沒他也太扯