[專欄] Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

[autechre (Untilted)]

隨便略譯一下，

出處: dean on draft  https://tinyurl.com/ycar5qof

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is rising on draft boards, as the Kentucky point
guard has ascended to #14 in ESPN’s top 100 with his hot recent play. He is
currently rated as the #3 PG in the class behind Collin Sexton (#8) and Trae
Young (#9).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander近來竄起，在ESPN榜上僅次Sexton與Trae Young

Shai’s main selling point is that he is a lead guard who can create for
himself and others while defending multiple NBA positions, as he is 6’6〃
with a 7’0〃 wingspan. His primary concerns are average athleticism and
limited shooting range, as these arguably prevent him from being more than an
intriguing role player. Let’s explore the nuances of his game to determine
which side carries more gravity.

Shai的的賣點是一個能製造自己與隊友的機會並同時防守多個NBA位置的lead guard(也就

是不管是SG還PG總之球就是在他手裡，想想James Harden)，他有6'6與7呎的臂展。他主要

的問題是平凡的體能與有限的射程，大概就是這些因素讓他看來不過是個有吸引力的角色

球員。

Can Shai run an NBA offense?

Shai能執行NBA進攻嗎?

The most significant anti-Shai point is he is an average athlete posting a
mere 23% usage rate. There is no public narrative that he could be an elite
point guard, as he is not even in the conversation as best PG in the class
with Trae Young and Collin Sexton.

最主要的反面看法是Shai是一個使用率僅23%的平凡球員。沒什麼人覺得他可以成為精英

控衛，畢竟在談到今年這輪時根本就不會把他跟Trae Young和Sexton相提並論嘛

But his recent performance suggests that he may have more lead guard
potential than common narratives suggest. After carrying a 22% usage rate for
the first 29 games, it has spiked to 27% in the past 7 and the results have
been excellent (stats are per 40 minutes):

但是他近來表現顯示比起輿論看法他似乎更有做為lead guard的潛力。前29場比賽使用率

22%後近七場賽事提昇到了27%而且結果不錯


                FGA     FTA     2P%     AST     TOV
First 29 gms    11.9    4.6     49.4%   5.8     3.2
Last 7 gms      13.0    8.2     54.9%   7.2     2.9

He is clearly performing at a different level than early in the season. And
this is in spite of a slightly tougher average defense over the recent span
than the earlier one.

顯然Shai比起賽季初期，表現的像是另一個級別，且這是在比較硬的賽程表下達到的。

And it’s not just Shai– the entire Kentucky offense has completely
transformed with his emergence:

而不只是Shai，整個肯塔基進攻在他爆發後都改觀了

                2P%     3P%     TOV%    Pts/Poss
First 29        50.9%   34.3%   19.1%   1.082
Last 7          53.2%   42.5%   15.5%   1.189

Kentucky  is clearly a different beast from early in the season. They are an
incredibly young team that was a dumpster fire for most of the regular
season, and this obscured much of Shai’s goodness.

肯塔基跟開季相比像是另一隻球隊。他們是隻天賦異稟的年輕球隊只不過常規賽大多數時

候都是場災難，而這掩蓋了Shai的優點。

Now that the Wildcats have found their groove with Shai leading the way, they
are performing as efficiently as any Calipari offense is capable. This offers
a good argument that Shai has the IQ to run an efficient offense, and that
his early season performance vastly undersells his upside on this end.

既然野貓在Shai領導下找到了節奏，他們表現不下任何Calipari球隊的進攻水準。與早先

賽季相反，這支持了Shai有足IQ去有效率地帶動進攻這樣的看法。


How Will This Performance Translate?

表現轉換到NBA會如何?


There are inevitably doubts that a non-elite athlete can translate scoring
from NCAA to the NBA. But it could translate well, as Shai has an elite
euro-step to compensate for his average athleticism. He is incredibly shifty
and is deft at stepping his way around defenders to atone for his inability
to explode past them.

無可諱言一個非精英級別運動天賦能否能轉換得分能力到NBA是有爭議的。但這是有可能

且不錯地轉換的，因為Shai有傑出的歐洲步去抵消他一般般的體能。他非常機智且在面

對防守者時相當靈巧，彌補了爆發力的不足。


In this regard he is similar to James Harden who is also an average athlete
that has thrived on dimensions, instincts, skill, and outlier coordination.
Shai is clearly an inferior prospect to Harden, as he is a clearly much worse
shooter and likely has other nuanced disadvantages. But Harden was considered
a clearly inferior prospect to the more athletic Blake Griffin, and even
Hasheem Thabeet was taken ahead of him due to athleticism concerns.

就這個面向來說，他有點像James Harden一樣體能平凡但是憑藉著尺寸、本能、技巧與少

見的協調性仍然發光發熱。當然Shai沒Harden那麼好，除了投籃差很大其它面向多少也有

些微差距。但是Harden曾被認為相對於體能更勁爆的Blake Griffin來說是比較差的

prospect，而且甚至連Thabeet都因此選秀順位比他還高。

Dejounte Murray is another average athlete who appears to be a late 1st steal
due to good dimensions and shake. I rated Murray as a lottery pick at the
time, and perceive Shai as superior.

Dejounte Murray是另外一個一般體能的好例子，我那時評定Murray是樂透，而且認為

Shai要更棒。

The tall, long, and shifty lead guard mold is rare, but Murray and Harden
show that it is a type that has been wildly underrated in the past. This may
be a signal that it is underrated once again with Shai.

又長又高且狡詐的lead guard是少見的，但Murray與Harden告訴我們這種類型在過去被嚴

重低估了。有可能這次Shai也被低估了。

Defense

防守

Shai is not a lockdown defensive player at this stage, but his potential is
clear. His dimensions and solid quickness give him potential to switch onto
multiple positions. Also he has shown ability to use his length to make plays
on D– here is how his steal, block, and rebound rates stack up vs other
Kentucky guard prospects under Calipari:

Shai目前還不是一個大鎖，但潛力是明顯的。他的尺寸與敏捷性讓他能換防多個位置。他

也運用這些優勢在防守上，比較一下同在Calipari手下打球的前輩:


                ORB%    DRB%    BLK%    STL%
Shai            3.1     10.1    1.7     2.9
John Wall       2.6     10.2    1.5     2.9
De’Aaron Fox   2.1     12.2    0.7     2.7
Eric Bledsoe    1.9     8.6     1.1     2.6
Tyler Ulis      1.7     7.1     0.3     2.3
Archie Goodwin  5.6     10.4    1.4     2.1
Andrew Harrison 2.4     8.1     0.8     1.7
Marquis Teague  1.6     6.7     0.8     1.7
Malik Monk      1.1     7.2     1.5     1.6
Jamal Murray    4.9     11.1    0.9     1.6
Devin Booker    2.6     7.8     0.3     1.3
Brandon Knight  2.1     10.4    0.6     1.1

His rates are nearly identical to John Wall. Although Shai is not nearly as
explosive as Wall, his other advantages help compensate. No other Kentucky
guard prospect matches Shai’s steals and blocks, and nobody outrebounds him
by a significant margin. There is a good argument to be made that he has as
much defensive potential as any Kentucky guard prospect in recent memory.

Shai的數字跟John Wall沒兩樣。雖然Shai不像Wall那樣體能勁爆，但其它優勢彌補回來。

沒有其他肯塔基後衛有Shai的抄截與封蓋數字，也沒有哪個後衛在籃板上遙遙領先Shai。

照這個論點Shai起碼跟近來的肯塔基後衛有著等量的防守潛力。

There is no guarantee that Shai will be a positive defensive player, but he
has clearly attractive upside on this end.

沒有保證Shai的淨防守輸出會是正的，但他無疑有著具吸引力的天賦

Summary

總結

At a glance, it is not obvious that Shai has two way potential. He is not a
super athlete, he doesn’t score a boatload of points, he is not considered
an elite passer, he is prone to getting beat on defense, and he is not a
reliable 3 point shooter. Thus it is understandable why he has yet to garner
top 10 attention.

匆匆一瞥，Shai是否有攻防潛力不太明顯。他沒有超人體能，也沒有得一卡車的分數，

他也不被認為是一流的傳球者，他常在防守上被擊倒，三分也不穩。因此可以理解為何

沒有得到前10評價的觀注

But when he is given a closer look, he is dripping with two way upside. His
length and coordination give him slashing potential, Kentucky’s recent
offensive performance shows his playmaking potential, his defensive stats and
length show his defensive potential, and the only significant concern is his
shooting. But even that has hope between his 81.5% FT and 71st percentile off
the dribble shooting per synergy.

但仔細看，他流露出攻防的天賦。他的長度與協調性讓他有切入的潛力，肯塔基近來攻進

表現顯示了他發起進攻的能力，而防守數據亦然，唯一但問題是他的投籃，但想想他81.5%

的罰球命中率與71位的運球間投籃，看起來還是有希望。


There are enough questions to rule him out as a possible top 3 selection, but
there are enough answers to arguably give him as much upside as anybody once
Doncic, Jackson, and Ayton are off the board.

有足夠的問題可以把他趕出前3順位，但也有足夠的答案回應，一旦Doncic、Jackson與

Ayton被選走後，他與其餘人選在天賦上不相上下。

If nothing else he should be in the conversation for best point guard
prospect in the class. It would be an unequivocal error to draft Collin
Sexton ahead of him. Sexton is more athletic and talented at scoring, but is
too small and one dimensional to have as much upside as Shai and has
significantly more bust risk.

沒有意外的話他應該在本屆最佳控衛的討論中。如果Sexton比他先被選中那無疑會是個錯

誤。Sexton體能與得分天賦更好，但比起Shai太小隻又單一面向因此更有可能是水貨。


It’s not as clear who is superior between Shai and Trae Young, as Trae is
too weird to assess with high confidence. But almost every guard with Trae’s
physical tools outside of Steph has failed, and Shai is about as likely to be
Harden as Trae is to be Steph. Shai at least has the success of Dejounte
Murray to suggest a solid floor without the best possible NBA translation and
development, which is a good reason to give him the edge.

Shai與Young誰更出色就不明確了，因為Young太怪異而難以評估。但幾乎每一個有著Young

身體條件的後衛，除了Curry外都失敗了，且Shai之於Harden大概就跟Young之於Curry一樣

Shai起碼有Dejounte Murray的成功例子去推測沒有最好NBA轉換與發展的下限狀況，

這是覺得Shai有優勢的好理由。

In my eyes Shai has cemented himself as a clear top 10 pick. It will be
interesting to see if he can continue his recent level of play into the Sweet
16, but as of now I’d rate him as the #1 PG in the class with a solid case
for a top 5 selection.

就我看來Shai牢牢的將自己鎖定在前10順位，看他能不能持續近來水準的表現到甜蜜16強

是蠻有趣的(已經被kansas st.擊敗)，但就現在而言我評價他是本屆第一控衛且是紮實的

前5選擇之一。


--

因為不看好Trae Young所以轉這篇，Young的型跟Curry實在差太大，出手選擇就是一例

Sexton沒什麼感覺不評論，窮人版的Curry與進化版的Delon Wright我選後者

Shai這種類型應該不會在新秀賽季就有突出表現，像Delon Wright甚至更大隻更極端的

Kyle Anderson都要養幾年

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 118.168.192.248
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NBA/M.1521830217.A.18A.html
推 rabbit529   : 用心翻譯文就是給推
推 Lacus0827   : SGA感覺8~12那邊  不太了解吹羊跟這隻跟魔術哪個合
重建的球隊應該沒有適不適合的問題，選市場上最好的那個就是了

推 forever920fv: 感謝介紹，我猜黃蜂會選到
→ forever920fv: 我覺得吹羊比較適合魔術，這隻比較適合黃蜂
推 Lacus0827   : 這支給黃蜂的話 感覺Monk會被放棄耶
不太清楚黃蜂近況，但是Lamb被送走的可能性比較高
※ 編輯: autechre (118.168.192.248), 03/24/2018 02:52:11
推 forever920fv: Monk被黃蜂選上的當下我已經崩潰了QQ
→ forever920fv: 當時沒想到Monk會掉到這麼後面
→ dragon803   : Alexander跟其他人的天賦差蠻多的吧
→ dragon803   : 他算是「後面」竄起來的例子，但他本身的打法跟球
→ dragon803   : 風型態在現在都蠻微妙的，而且他也很全力的避開自己
→ dragon803   : 的弱點
→ dragon803   : 如果說他的未來是個很好的替補控球後衛沒有人懷疑，
→ dragon803   : 但要上先發是很有難度的
→ dragon803   : 然後Trae Young真的不是Curry，我是覺得不要被外媒
→ dragon803   : 的標題迷惑了，用比較獨立的心態去檢視Trae會比較好
→ dragon803   : ，同時也必須要說Trae的出手選擇確實有可議之處，
→ dragon803   : 但也要考慮他的隊友就是了，Trae不投沒人投
→ dragon803   : 不過也因此有些人扣上濫投的名聲也是Trae必須要承
→ dragon803   : 受的就是，這屆控球後衛的發展應該會蠻慢的，包括Tr
→ dragon803   : ae在內Alexander等人都需要時間
如果其他PG人選真的有那麼好，mock draft順位不該是現在那樣

Trae Young其實體能比起Curry差了不只一點，防守也更糟

但是只要小後衛能硬砍大號三分好幾場得個40+分好像這些都不再是問題

我想也是蠻奇怪的  反正今年後衛就不怎麼樣好像也不用這麼認真就是 lol
※ 編輯: autechre (118.168.192.248), 03/24/2018 03:43:35
→ dragon803   : 因為你質疑Trae的方式很怪，「小後衛能硬砍大號三
→ dragon803   : 分好幾場得個40+分好像這些都不再是問題
→ dragon803   : 」，那我想問的是你會看到有那個控球後衛在比賽被三
→ dragon803   : 夾，沒被過半場就開始包夾，甚至在無球狀態下直接被
→ dragon803   : 上貼身就是不讓他碰到球嗎
→ dragon803   : 這就是他在1月底到2月後真真實實遭受到的待遇，但
→ dragon803   : 為什麼人們還那麼肯定他的原因絕非他的得分，而是他
→ dragon803   : 展現更多在場上的傳球組織，串連全隊，甚至一肩扛起
→ dragon803   : 球隊的能力跟心態，如果他只有得分他是走不到今天這
→ dragon803   : 種地步的
→ dragon803   : 體能弱勢的後衛被質疑身高跟防守確實屬於他們的原罪
→ dragon803   : ，但這些人之所以可以在進入聯盟後有好的表現不可
→ dragon803   : 能只是因為他們很會得分
→ dragon803   : 如果純粹以Trae來說他提到他的偶像是Steve Nash，
→ dragon803   : 那我想可以稍微略窺一二了吧，所以我還是要說我講Tr
→ dragon803   : ae的時候不會一直講得分，因為講會得分根本就不是他
→ dragon803   : 這個人最大的價值啊XD
推 Lacus0827   : 以投資來說 吹羊比較高風險高報酬 SGA會比較低點
推 y1027330    : Trae真的優點不只是得分 而是他的傳球能力
→ y1027330    : 很少一場接一場看大學生比賽 但吹羊真的讓人愛不釋
→ y1027330    : 手的想一直看 他carry隊友的能力太好
推 bbbjjj      : Trae Young的傳球能力和視野真的蠻強的
噓 JUFF831     : 看新秀那麼隨便，你心態可議