推 BHviolin88 : 跟Fangraphs比，KLAW比較保守。期待Judge跟BBird!! 02/04 10:32
推 slyheart : @.@ Severino投球真的沒在用下半身嗎? 02/04 23:42
→ slyheart : 看他機制挺順暢的阿 02/04 23:42
Top 10 prospects
1. Aaron Judge, OF
2. Greg Bird, 1B
3. Gary Sanchez, C
4. Luis Severino, RHP
5. Tyler Austin, OF
6. Jorge Mateo, SS
7. Domingo German, RHP
8. Ian Clarkin, LHP
9. Luis Torrens, C
10. Eric Jagielo, 3B
Overview
Sanchez will show you flashes of the ability that once made him a top-25
prospect in all of baseball, but he'll also take whole pitches or innings off
mentally, and catching isn't a position you can play half-fast. Severino has
a live, loose arm with a plus changeup and a fastball that shows plus, but
it's a reliever's delivery all the way, with no use of his lower half, to say
nothing of the lack of an average breaking ball. Austin had a disappointing
first half but around midyear started to pick it up; the wrist issues that
ruined his 2013 didn't fully disappear until late June or early July, after
which he was better, hitting .302/.353/.483 from July 1 on. German came over
in the Martin Prado trade, a 22-year-old right-hander who sits in the mid-90s
with an above-average breaking ball and below-average changeup. He throws
strikes but without great command, and as a player already on the 40-man
roster he'll have to move quickly or end up in the bullpen. Clarkin throws a
ton of strikes, too, sitting 90-91, touching 93, with probably another couple
of mph to come, but it's the wipeout curveball that missed all those bats in
the Sally League. Torrens has been progressing behind the plate, just two
years after the Yanks moved him there from shortstop; the arm is tremendous,
nailing 39 percent of runners in 2014, and he has a solid right-handed swing
that should produce double-digit home run power as he fills out. Jagielo has
shown power and improved footwork at third base, but has had trouble staying
healthy and will probably peak as a .240-.250 hitter because of low contact
rates.
Refsnyder (11) received a lot of attention for his hot start in Double-A last
year, but didn't maintain that level of production in Triple-A, and his
secondary skills -- patience, power, fielding -- are all weak. He might play
second every day for someone, but I don't think it will be for the Yankees,
who will want more defense or more pop at that spot. The Yankees challenged
third baseman Miguel Andujar (12) by sending him from the GCL right to the
Sally League to start 2014 at age 19, and after a rough start he hit
.319/.367/.456 in the second half of his season, taking better at-bats as he
went; there's some controlled violence in that swing and he should grow into
some power. Lefty Jacob Lindgren (13) could pitch in a major league bullpen
right now with a low-90s fastball with life and a plus slider he can throw
for strikes. Shortstop Tyler Wade (14) was also young for the Sally League;
like Andujar, he's very smooth in the field with good instincts, but not as
far along at the plate as Andujar is. Right-hander Brady Lail (15) has come
on quietly over the past two years, working 90-94 with good sink, a plus
curveball, and excellent command and control for a 21-year-old pitcher. Ty
Hensley (16) has had a horrendous time staying healthy, with shoulder and hip
injuries since signing, only to be hospitalized this offseason after he was
assaulted by an acquaintance, breaking his jaw. He's flashed some of the plus
velocity that made him a first-rounder, but he's now 21½ years old and has
42 innings -- all in short-season leagues -- in three summers as a pro. The
Yankees were all over the July 2 class last year, signing three of the top
half-dozen or so prospects down there, including shortstop Dermis Garcia,
massive third baseman Nelson Gomez, and potential five-tool center fielder
Juan DeLeon, although the fifth tool -- the ability to hit -- is always the
question with 16-year-old amateurs.
2015 impact
The signing of Stephen Drew closed off second base for Refsnyder, at least
for now. That makes Lindgren the most likely prospect to contribute this
year, perhaps starting out in middle relief with Andrew Miller and Dellin
Betances handling the last six outs.
The fallen
Mason Williams, once a top-50 prospect in the game, has seen his offense
decline two years running, and his effort level has dropped even more
precipitously. He can still play center, but he looked like a Triple-A player
at most last summer.
Sleeper
Mateo is so well-regarded in the industry that other teams have already
targeted him in trade talks, but the Yankees have held onto him as their
potential shortstop of the future. He has tremendous tools, is an 80 runner
and plus fielder who shows above-average raw power in BP. He's also 19½ with
just 15 games of experience outside of the Dominican Summer League, so his
probability is quite low (or his risk is quite high, depending on how you
want to phrase it); a strong year against age-appropriate competition in the
Sally League would give me a lot more confidence in his future.
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http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12211903
2015 ranking of all 30 farm systems
20. New York Yankees
The Yankees' system still has more talent than production, as several key
prospects continued to have trouble staying on the field, but a very strong
2013 draft class and a blowout year on the international front have the
system trending up again.
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http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12198324/
Top 100 prospects (Nos. 1-50)
The Guidelines
‧ The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility;
that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the
majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league
club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1.
That means Milwaukee Brewers infielder Luis Sardinas, for instance, is
ineligible, based on his days on the 25-man roster.
‧ Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible.
‧ I do not consider players with professional experience in Japan or Korea
"prospects" for the purpose of this exercise, which means no Jung-Ho Kang
this year (among others). I also exclude Cuban players who are considered
professional free agents by Major League Baseball by virtue of their
experience in Cuba's Serie Nacional de Béisbol. This list includes Rusney
Castillo and Yasmany Tomas, but will consider Cuban players whom MLB treats
as amateurs, like Roberto Baldoquin (who just missed this list) and Yoan
Lopez.
‧ When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my
own, supplemented with conversations with other scouts and front-office
executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context.
I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring
higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the
majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front
offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more
information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.
‧ I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average"
and "above average" thousands of times across the 100 player comments. On
that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average,
60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on. Giancarlo Stanton has 80
raw power. David Ortiz has 20 speed. Carlos Gomez is an 80 defender. An
average fastball for a right-hander is 90-92 mph, with 1-2 mph off for a
lefty.
‧ I've included last year's rank for players who appeared in the top 100 in
2014. An "ineligible" player was still an amateur at this time last January,
whereas an "unranked" player was eligible but didn't make the cut. I've also
tagged players who were on last year's sleepers list or list of 10 players
who just missed the cut.
23 Aaron Judge, OF
AGE: 22 DOB: 4/26/92 B/T: R/R HT: 6-7 WT: 230
AVG: .308 OBP: .419 OPS: .905 HR: 17 SB: 1
Judge's size was expected to be an impediment to his ability to hit, but so
far it hasn't proven to be an obstacle at all. He showed outstanding plate
discipline and ability to make contact in his first full year in pro ball
while giving glimpses of the huge raw power you'd expect from someone of his
build. Judge shouldn't have started his professional career in the low-A
Sally League since he was a 22-year-old college product, but the Yankees got
him to the Florida State League midyear, and he continued to rake while
proving he can get on base and hit a few balls over the fence.
Judge has a short swing, surprisingly so given the length of his arms, and
very strong command of the strike zone (which is partly why I didn't like
seeing him in low-A to start the year). The challenge for him will be to
learn when he can uncoil and turn on a ball without losing that compact
stroke, which keeps his contact rate up. He hit 17 bombs this year, plus four
more in the Arizona Fall League, so there's some power there, but he should
be able to hit 30 without needing to get bigger or stronger. He's an
above-average defender in right, faster than you'd expect, with the arm to
profile there and the potential to post strong triple-slash numbers if he can
make that one big adjustment.
Top level: High Class A (Tampa) | 2014 rank: Unranked
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12211557/
Top 100 prospects (Nos. 51-100)
80 Greg Bird, 1B
AGE: 22 DOB: 11/9/92 B/T: L/R HT: 6-3 WT: 215
AVG: .271 OBP: .376 OPS: .848 HR: 14 SB: 1
Bird was Kevin Gausman's high school catcher and signed as a fifth-rounder in
2011 for an over-slot bonus of $1.1 million, moving to first base almost
immediately because his defense was weak and he had back trouble in 2012.
He's now had two strong seasons playing every day, showing patience and power
across three levels of full-season ball. Bird's swing is very short to the
ball, and he accelerates his hands quickly for hard contact to all fields,
rarely putting the ball on the ground because he squares it up so frequently.
He's a high-IQ hitter with outstanding plate discipline and understanding of
how to work a pitcher, giving reason to think he'll continue to post high
OBPs even though he'll probably hit only .250-260 with a lot of strikeouts.
My real concern with him is at first base, where he still needs work on
fielding ground balls, and of course the fact that the back flared up on him
again in late March is worrisome. He's lined up to be Mark Teixeira's
replacement at first base as long as the glove improves and his back problems
don't turn out to be chronic.
Top level: Double-A (Trenton) | 2014 rank: Unranked
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http://m.espn.go.com/general/chat/chat?eventId=51543&page=0&wjb=
Chat with Keith Law
Mike (New York)
Klaw, welcome to your annual hate fest. Best chat of the year! I'm sure my
fellow Yankee fans angered at not ranking Severino in the top 100 will
conveniently ignore having Judge in the top 25 and Bird in your top 100, both
higher than others. Regarding Bird, I saw where you wrote he was "short to
the ball," but I've also heard it said that his swing can get long at times.
Are these two different things? Thanks for the great work.
Klaw
I don't think his swing is long at all. It's not great bat speed, and that
may cause problems at higher levels, but I think it'll play. I was surprised
at how much the industry liked him too.
blake (NC)
ok so no Severino in the top 100? Why
Klaw
Why would he be on there?
Cashman (New York)
Why are you low on Luis Severino? He has good fastball and changeup, also
just 20 years old.
Klaw
That would put him in a group of about 200 right-handed pitchers across the
minors.
Klaw
Severino is a future reliever. You can't stay a starter without using your
lower half at all. He has a great arm, loose and easy, but I can't name an
MLB starter who uses his lower half as little as Severino does - nor do I
think you can truly command your fastball if you're all arm and no legs.
blake (NC)
why would Severino be on there? Well he will likely be on everyone else's top
100...which is why I asked the question.
Klaw
Appeal to popular opinion. I don't consider what your top 100 says when
making mine.
Kevin (Portland)
Was Gary Sanchez unranked due to defensive or plate discipline concerns? And
as a 22-year old in double-A does he have time to fix either?
Klaw
Yes, and yes, and ... yes.
Ben (The Bronx Empire) [via mobile]
Wow, it's hot in here today... So you mentioned Severino doesn't use his
bottom half, (or at least very little). Seems fixable to me...is it? Could a
pitching coach just say "start using your lower half more"? How easy is that
to change for a 20 yo prospect, (or any pitcher for that matter)? Thanks
Klaw
Name a guy who's done it.
Christian (Michigan)
Would you still say that Severino is the best pitcher in the Yankees system,
or someone else?
Klaw
I have him ranked highest, because of proximity to the majors, but if you're
looking long-term ceiling, I'd go with Clarkin (who I believe is a no-doubt
starter if healthy) over him.
Derek (NY)
Why do you like Judge's ability to make contact, but worry about Bird
striking out a lot? Perhaps I'm falling victim to scouting the stat line, but
they both have similar K rates (20-25%), and Bird is one level ahead.
Klaw
Watch their swings.
Nick (FL)
Did they also point out that you also forgot Severino?
Klaw
Actually, nobody did. I'm far from alone on thinking he's a reliever.
Joe (Chicago)
I have heard Greg Bird described (not by you) as a passive hitter. What does
that mean?
Klaw
Jeremy Hermida. Means he takes pitches, walks, but doesn't attack when ahead
in the count.
Steve (New York)
Keith, what is Jorge Mateo's ceiling? Thanks for the great work!
Klaw
Everyday SS. Long way off, though.
Christian (Michigan)
Cano wasn't a top 100 prospect.
Klaw
Before my time, but you're probably right. I remember our guys killing his
lack of effort/work ethic in the minors.
EC (DC)
RE: Cano - So weird that someone would knock a latin players effort. Almost
like it's never happened before and has nothing to do with where they're
from/color of their skin.
Klaw
While I completely agree that players of color are more quickly labelled lazy
or "dogs," in Cano's case, he was lazy. He grew up. It happens.
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