[外電] What's Wrong with Tanaka?

[zyx12320 (zyx12320)]

source:  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whats-wrong-with-tanaka/


上禮拜的文 今天在推文看到想說就來翻翻

簡短翻譯有誤請不吝指正

可以開好讀我有重傳圖


前兩段省略

Said Yankees manager Joe Girardi to MLB.com after Tanaka’s latest rough
outing Saturday:

“We know that he has to make adjustments, and that’s where our focus is,”
Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “This guy’s got a really good track
record. He’s had a lot of success here, so it’s not like he’s just coming
over from Japan and struggling. He’s in a rut now, and we think we’ve
discovered a few things that will help him and will continue to help him.”


老吉在5/20田中的慘烈表現後說

"我們知道他必須做出調整，這正是我們致力去做的。田中有相當好的紀錄，

也在這獲得了不少的成果，現在並不是他剛從日本來而掙扎，他是陷入了某種困境，

而我們發現了幾個方法可以幫助他並會持續地對他有益。"


This spring in Florida I was asked to be the “stats guy” for a documentary
on Tanaka being filmed by a Japanese studio. I met with the film crew and
interviewer at a hotel room in Bradenton, Florida, in March. They wanted me
to explore via my laptop — and on camera — what allowed Tanaka to be
successful at the major-league level. Tanaka has used location, a variety of
pitches, and movement to succeed in the majors despite lacking elite velocity.

The film crew had relayed to me that Tanaka said he was trying to rely less
on his four-seam fastball and become more of a sinker-slider-splitter pitcher
to survive in the cramped AL East ballparks. Tanaka has been hurt by home
runs and he did move away from the four-seamer last season, throwing a
splitter on a career-high 30.2% of offerings and a slider at a career-best
rate 27.5%. Only about 6% of his pitches were classified by PITCHf/x as
four-seam fastballs. This season, though, his splitter and slider usage is
down. He’s had a history of elbow issues.

田中雖然球速不快，但靠著進壘點、多種球路以及好的位移，讓他得以在大聯盟生存。

他試著降低對四縫的依賴，主要靠伸卡(二縫)-滑球-指叉來在危險的美東球場生存。

田中一直為全壘打所苦，而去年他的確少丟四縫了，指叉跟滑球的使用率都是生涯最高的

30.2%和27.5%，四縫的使用率則只剩下6%左右。但今年指叉跟滑球的使用率卻減少，可能

跟手肘的傷病史有關。


This season, just about everything is trending in the wrong direction for
Tanaka. Consider his slugging versus pitch type by month over the last two
seasons:

He’s getting crushed by lefties (.352 wOBA), but he’s being hit even more
forcefully by righties (.411).

這一季所有事情都朝著錯誤的方向前進，先來看看從前兩年到現在各球種的被長打率。

田中被左打痛打(.352 wOBA)，但面對右打的表現更為慘烈(.411)

http://imgur.com/j7fC2tg

Tanaka’s trouble appears to be twofold: he’s relying less on his two best
pitchers — his slider and splitter — decreasing their combined usage from
58% last year to 47%. He’s throwing his four-seam fastball more. And he’s
not locating as well with his fastball and splitter.

田中的問題有兩個面向：他降低了他最好的兩個球種(指叉和滑球)的使用率，使用率

總和從去年的58%降低到今年的47%，增加了四縫的使用率。此外，他也不再能很好地

控制速球和指叉的進壘點。

下圖是2017年 四縫VS左打者

http://imgur.com/tLx2tum

下圖是2017年 四縫VS右打者

http://imgur.com/MWhZRbD

Tanaka has 24.3% home-run rate per fly ball (HR/FB), and he’s already
allowed three home runs off his four-seam fastball, a pitch he didn’t throw
often last season. The pitch has merely average velocity and spin, and he
cannot afford to miss with it.

田中今年的HR/FB是24.3%(譯按:14~16平均14.1%)，四縫是他去年不常投的球種

而今年他已經有三顆四縫被扛出牆。田中的四縫球速跟轉速都在平均值左右，

因此他更不能犯錯。


Tanaka’s preferred fastball has become the two-seam/sinker. Consider its
location versus righties in 2016, when he was able to move it around the
strike zone:

田中比較仰賴的速球是二縫(伸卡)，下圖是2016年二縫VS右打者的熱圖，當時他可以

把球投在好球帶的邊緣。

http://imgur.com/DQYT4CI

下圖是2017年 二縫VS右打者

http://imgur.com/PH4dW9o

A year ago, Tanaka was able to pitch to the glove- and arm-side parts of the
plate, seemingly at will, with the pitch. This season, he has too often left
the pitch over the heart of the plate. And even when Tanaka just slightly
misses with location, he can be hurt by his home ballpark.

一年前田中似乎可以隨心所欲地將二縫投在好球帶的兩邊，但今年他太常投進紅中，

即使他丟的離邊角只差一點，洋基球場也可能讓他付出代價。


When examining Tanaka’s two-seamer/sinker versus lefties in 2016 he was able
most often locate it on the outside edge and at the lower extreme part of the
zone:
Tanaka doesn’t appear to be missing badly with the pitch, but he’s more
often pitching in the zone — and particularly down in the zone — in 2017:


再來看2016年二縫VS左打者的熱圖，當時他可以將球投在外角以及好球帶最下緣

http://imgur.com/owwDh4X

今年雖然沒有偏差的太多，但他更常投進好球帶裡，特別是偏低的地方

http://imgur.com/CgKjBGw


And finally, consider Tanaka’s signature, pitch, his splitter, to lefties in
2016:

Compare that visual to his work to date in 2017. You can see the pitch is
leaking more out over the plate:

Too often the splitter isn’t splitting. The pitch is flattening out and
catching more plate than Tanaka can afford.


最後來看田中的招牌指叉VS左打者

2016

http://imgur.com/Gac1fzj

2017

http://imgur.com/qFPU0mA

可以看到去年的指叉比較常掉出好球帶外。今年的指叉則常常不掉，球變平而進入

好球帶。

Said Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild to MLB.com: “It doesn’t look
like there’s anything with the arm. Sometimes location can be part of the
problem, but that’s not what he’s saying. There’s no indication of [an
injury].”

And if there were an injury, it’s not showing up in velocity. He’s hit 97
mph this year, his highest reading since 2014, and his two-seam/sinker
velocity (91.0 mph) is slightly up from last season.

洋基投手教練Rothschild說：＂手臂看起來沒有問題，

有時候丟不準是受傷的併發症, 但他沒有說自己不舒服，並沒有受傷的跡象。＂

(but that’s not what he’s saying 這句不確定怎麼翻Orz 謝謝MLB版t大)

即使田中真的有傷，並沒有反映在球速上，今年最快97mph，是從2014以來最快的，

而二縫的球速也比去年稍微提升。


END

最後兩段省略XD




補充原文留言的出手點整理

http://imgur.com/HpZhYl0

出手點來到歷年低點 可能導致球變平

討論看看吧 (〞︶〝＊)


--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NY-Yankees/M.1496312175.A.AE0.html
噓 microsaft   : 該不會壞掉了？
※ zyx12320:轉錄至看板 MLB                                         06/01 18:33
推 ZMTL        : 這篇說明了數據看球跟感覺看球的差異，感謝
→ mattaus     : 今年指叉跟滑球的使用率卻減少，可能
→ mattaus     : 跟手肘的傷病史有關
推 guato       : 某：反正都是捕手的錯阿 (挖鼻屎)
→ mattaus     : 投球策略改變這段，就已經下了後面在否定的結論，
→ mattaus     : 怪哉
抱歉 那段算是我有點超譯 原文沒有承接關係

但為了預防受傷而改變配球是可能的
推 vencil      : 推個
※ 編輯: zyx12320 (140.112.230.134), 06/01/2017 19:29:21
推 kentshi     : 可否敦請大師為此篇開示
推 c871111116  : 天啊 又一個大師來看板了....
推 jojo2147    : 有給圖連結超用心
※ 編輯: zyx12320 (140.112.230.134), 06/01/2017 20:19:15
推 prayer513   : 指叉掉落的幅度跟第一年來洋基時差很多 應該跟手肘
→ prayer513   : 傷勢有關
推 prayer513   : 當控球不穩時變化球騙不到打者 球數落後最後就被打
→ prayer513   : 爆
推 madaux      : 投指叉和滑球有很傷手肘嗎
→ greatdemon  : 該不會是因為怕受傷吧
推 frank94     : 最新這場 吉總說是滑球沒投好
→ frank94     : romine說是控球問題，太多球投到中間了
推 nomo1616    : 推好文
推 microSD     : 好文推 希望田中能盡快走出低潮
推 sammy1031   : 好文推
→ a123666b    : 我想問個問題：他是不是變成發球機了啊？
推 prayer513   : 怕是會開始骰子化
推 nangaluchen : 推
推 madaux      : 說真的，我非常不喜歡看田中投直球
→ madaux      : 指叉球看狀況，但是他滑球應該是控得很好的
推 madaux      : 田中的4縫線直球只要投進好球帶，對打者來說都是甜
推 madaux      : 上面大大說直球要搶好球，變化球才有引誘力
推 madaux      : 但在搶好球時，已經被K了。直球品質才是主要問題
推 madaux      : 王建民以前的四縫線也不0k，就大部分都是塞伸卡
推 thetruth46  : 滑球指叉使用率降低是防止受傷的話，那出手點變低是
→ thetruth46  : 不是因為有傷在在不知不覺中用較為舒服的姿勢投造
→ thetruth46  : 成的？
推 redsnipertd : 田中第一年4-seamer被幹一堆砲，現在幾乎都丟2-seam
→ redsnipertd : 你不喜歡看也看不到幾次了
→ redsnipertd : 我個人意見是覺得他在手痛硬撐
推 frank94     : 今年二縫打者OPS也破1
推 microSD     : 該不會真的有傷在硬撐？？
→ microSD     : 可能是想拼一份大約
真的很有可能Orz
推 redsnipertd : 啊就球很呆啊，這種通常不是累了就是哪裡在痛
→ frank94     : 吉總賽後是說沒傷 然後舉例keuchel 說他去年也很掙
→ frank94     : 扎  結果媒體笑他居然不知Keuchel是忍痛在打
推 frank94     : 看田中下一場多休息一天會不會比較好吧
這我也不知道XD 但GOOGLE一下就有新聞

老吉不知道也是..
推 ypw         : 所以似乎又回到6人玩輪值的話題了  過去幾年都有
→ ypw         : 提過這個議題  不過都沒做過
※ 編輯: zyx12320 (140.112.230.134), 06/02/2017 17:05:13
推 bluedragon  : 強投某年烙賽不是正常不過的事情嗎？ 重點是找出問
→ bluedragon  : 題對症下藥，有些人因為低潮就否定投手實在沒必要
推 noahlin     : ERA在28歲突然變前一年的兩倍怎麼樣都不是正常的事
推 prayer513   : 今年是強投落難年
推 yaoyi94     : 落難？隔壁棚叫賣哥超威的！
推 frank94     : sale上一場也爆了...  不過他真的強
推 frank94     : 去年白襪拍賣  好像跟我們要Sanchez+Top prospects
→ frank94     : Cashman就不理了 他說我們不只差一個球員
推 bluedragon  : 今年是打完了嗎？
推 whitecholate: 推