[外電] 小蘭正面臨要不要跟太陽談換約

[bll135 (洪爺)]

The curious case of Alex Len faces extension talk with Phoenix Suns
小蘭面臨與太陽換約的狀況令人好奇
http://ppt.cc/Bt5w1

Several young big men got large rookie extensions this summer. Will Alex Len
join the group, or hold out for more money next summer?

有幾個年輕長人已經在這個暑假以年輕球員的身分和母隊換了張大約。
Alex Len 會加入他們的行列，還是再等等，直到下個暑假好獲取更多的金錢？

On the one hand, Phoenix Suns big man Alex Len has all the tools and size he
needs to excel in the NBA as an old-school center with a variety of offensive
moves, the length to defend the basket and the hunger to rebound errant shots
on both ends of the court.

從一方面來說，小蘭擁有的高度與天賦讓他可以在進攻方面擔任一個老派的中鋒球員。
他的長度可以保衛籃板，並且他在攻防兩端都對那些投失的球展現了高度的渴望。

But on the other hand, Len experiences frequent bouts of indecision and often
lets his offensive struggles hinder his effort, rendering him a non-factor in
games he should be dominating on the defensive end.

但從另一方面來說，他頻繁發作的痛痛阻礙了他在進攻端的努力，並且在他應該主宰
防守端的時候讓他看起來像是沒有什麼作用的。

Last season, Len’s third in the NBA, was by far his best statistical season
in many categories. Playing roughly the same minutes as the year before (23
vs. 22 minutes per game), the 7’1”, 260 lb. Len set career highs in points
per game (9.0), rebounds (7.6), assists (1.2) and free throws (3.1), while
reducing his fouls per game to 2.9 in a career high 78 games.

上一個球季是他的第三個賽季，同時是他進入聯盟以來表現最好的一個賽季。他每場上
場時間跟以往差不多(二十三分鐘跟二十二分鐘)，身高七呎一，體重 260 磅。他得到
生涯最高的場均九分，7.6籃板，1.2助攻跟3.1個罰球，並且在78場比比賽中把自己的
平均犯規數降到了 2.9 個。

Len was one of only nine players to average at least 13 points, 10 rebounds
after the All-Star break last season, joining luminaries Andre Drummond,
Anthony Davis, DeAndre Jordan, Demarcus Cousins, Hassan Whiteside,
Karl-Anthony Towns, Paul Millsap and Pau Gasol among the most productive big
men in the league.

在全明星賽之前，小蘭是九個平均13分10籃板的球員之一。其他的人分別是：Andre
Drummond 、 Anthony Davis 、 DeAndre Jordan 、 Demarcus Cousins 、 Hassan
Whiteside 、 Karl-Anthony Towns 、 Paul Millsap 跟 Pau Gasol 這些聯盟中最
多產的球員。

But pulling back a layer or two tells a different story.

但回頭來看，在一個或兩個層面上看來這又是一個不同的故事了。

Len also converted a career worst shooting percentage of 42.3% - almost the
worst FG% in league history for a 7-footer - while on defense he blocked less
than a shot per game (0.8) and allowing a higher shooting percentage to his
opponent than the year before. Len allowed opponents to shoot almost 60%
within 6 feet of the rim (only 1.5% below their average) last year after
allowing just 53.1% the year before. Some of that could be attributed to the
Suns awful defense in general, as Tyson Chandler experienced a similar
regression on rim defense and block rate.

小蘭擁有生涯最低的 42.3% 命中率──同樣也是全聯盟的七呎長人在聯盟歷史上最
差的紀錄──而且在防守上，他每場平均的火鍋數也低於0.8，而跟他對位的對手也
相較於去年有了更高的命中率。前年的小蘭讓對手們在六呎內的平均命中率達到了60%
(只比他們平均少了1.5%)而前年是53.1%。這可能要歸因於太陽糟糕的防守，也可能
要考量到拳王加入後他把一部分的防守跟火鍋工作接手過去了。

More concerning, though, has to be Len’s hot/cold tendencies.

更令人擔心的，是小蘭的冷熱傾向。

After posting 10 consecutive 10+ rebound games from 2/27 - 3/17, including 8
double-doubles, Len grabbed 10+ rebounds in only 3 of his next 14 games to
finish the season on a sour note.

在 2/27 - 3/17 連續搶下十個籃板，並且包括八個雙十的好成績之後，小蘭在球季
尾聲的十四場比賽中以只有三場的籃板球來到二位數的方式畫下了句點。

Right in the middle of that 14-game stretch, Len followed up a strong
back-to-back double-double while making 15 of 25 shots with a weak
back-to-back where he missed 17 of his 18 shots and grabbed 14 rebounds total.

就在這十四場比賽中，小蘭狀況好的時候可以投個 15-25 ，也可以在狀況差的時候
投個 1-18 並且總共只拿到 14 個籃板球。

His up and down play, and awful shooting percentage despite having the
requisite skills to succeed, has many scratching their heads over his future.

他起伏的狀況，還有糟糕的命中率說明了儘管他有了成功的技巧，他球員生涯的未
來還是要被打上很多問號。

“The skills are there,” coach Earl Watson says. “In the game he has
challenges where it’s almost like he’s moving too fast for his mind.”

「他的技巧就擺在那邊。」花生說：「在比賽中他的挑戰是他的注意力好像永遠移
動的太快了。」

The Suns coaches recognize that Len will regress if he can’t convert early
in the game on offense. But they don’t think Len is alone in that regard.

太陽的教練們認識到，他如果不能早早在比賽的進攻上有所貢獻，他就必須回到板
凳席上冷靜。但他們同時也不覺得小蘭是一個人在面對這些的。

“I think for everyone in the NBA it’s a confidence thing,” Watson said.

「我想對 NBA 的每一個球員，這都是一種信任問題。」花生說。

Some players have a deep well of confidence that cannot be shaken. Rookie
Devin Booker, for example, also posted an incredibly bad shooting percentage
while sharing the ‘top offensive option’ crown with Len in the second half.
But Booker kept firing, and found new ways to deliver results every game.

有一些球員永遠一些無可動搖的信心，像是另一個菜鳥 Devin Booker ，舉例來說，
他在下半季跟小蘭分享這個第一進攻選擇權之前命中率也很糟糕，但他持續努力，而
且找到更多新的方式來結束比賽。

Watching Booker play, you’d think he was making every shot while in reality
he was missing two out of every three. Really, quite awful but you’d never
know it.

當你在看 Booker 比賽，你會覺得他會投進每顆球。但其實他平均每三球會投失兩球，
這非常糟糕而你其實根本沒想到。

In contrast, everyone in the building knew when Alex Len was having a bad
game. His shoulders would slump, his hesitation would become more pronounced,
and he’d allow himself to disappear on defense.

相反的，每個人對於小蘭建構出的印象就是他無法打出好的比賽，他扛不起責任，他
身上的疑問將被坐實，而他更會讓自己在防守端上徹底的消失。

“It’s not basketball,” Watson said about what’s holding Len back. “The
skills are there. Teaching with Alex Len is easy. He’s gonna do the work. So
we have to love and nurture him through his progression.”

「這與籃球無關。」花生對於怎麼拉小蘭一把是這樣說的：「他的技巧就在那裏。教
導小蘭很容易，他會做到那些你教他的事情，所以我們需要做的只是透過愛的教育來
促進他的進步。」

I often said last year that Len is his own opponent. When he’s right, he can
be one of the best big men in the whole game of basketball. But when he’s
doubting himself, he’s terrible.

我常說去年的小蘭是他自己最大的對手，當他走在正確的道路上，他是全場最棒的長
人；而當他狀況不好，他是最糟的那個。

Watson thinks he knows the answer.

花生認為他知道這個問題的答案。

“It’s pulling Alex Len off the side and telling him truly how much we love
him and appreciate him as a person not just a player,” he said. “And that
we believe in him and have full confidence in him.”

「我們只需要把小蘭拉到另一個，並且告訴他我們有多們喜歡他並且欣賞他──不只
是一個籃球員的身分上，也在做為一個人的身分上。」他說：」然後我們相信他會重
拾信心的。」


Watson’s love and nurture talk might make some of us a bit uncomfortable and
ready to wave the BS flag, but confidence is truly a difference maker in all
of us. How a coach instills confidence in a player is key to success.

花生的愛的教育可能會讓我們終得有些人感到不舒服並且準備揮舞著 BS 的大旗(這
邊翻得怪怪的)，但信心對於我們中的所有人確實是帶來一切不同的根源。教練如何
灌輸球員信心會是一切是否成功的關鍵。

Remember when the Suns had a young Slovenian who couldn’t even dribble the
ball down court under pressure as a rookie? Some called him Goran Tragic.
Others called him the worst player in the NBA. He couldn’t make a shot,
couldn’t run the offense. His first coach, Terry Porter, buried him on the
bench.

記得太陽曾經有一個差點連球都運不過半場的年輕斯洛維尼亞菜鳥？這個球員曾經
被叫做 Goran Tragic (悲劇Goran) ，其他人也說他是 NBA 最糟糕的球員。他沒辦
法投籃，沒辦法在進攻中跑動，他的第一個教練 Terry Porter 把他埋葬在板凳上。

But when Alvin Gentry took over the Suns at the All-Star break in 2009, he
famously bragged that his first order of business was telling Goran Dragic to
stop looking at the bench when he made a mistake, and to just move on to the
next play. He encouraged Dragic to fight through adversity, and that the
coaching staff believed in him.

但是當 Alvin Gentry 在 2009 年的明星賽期間領導太陽隊，他最有名的事蹟就是
告訴 Goran Dragic 當他犯錯的時候不要再看著板凳席了！只要在下一個 play 中
繼續努力，他鼓勵 Dragic 在逆境中戰鬥，而且整個教練團都相信他。

That’s the same thing Watson is doing. It’s just that Gentry wasn’t as
flowery with the rhetoric.

花生現在做的也是相同的事情，只是花生沒有裘莉那樣舌燦蓮花。

“When you get out there we don’t want you to second-guess yourself because
you missed the shot,” Watson said of what he tells Len. “Because no matter
what we love you. Whether you go out there and average 20 and 10, or 12 and
12 or have a rough game, we’re going to high five you.”

「我們不希望你因為一次的失投而在站出來的時候質疑自己第二次。」花生說這是他
告訴小蘭的：「因為不管我們多愛你，不管你在場上有平均 20-10 ，或者 12-12 或
者更差的表現，我們永遠會跟你擊掌。」

Dragic was 22 his rookie season, just as Alex Len was 22 last year. It may
have been Len’s third NBA season, but only his second healthy year.

在 Dragic 二十二歲的新秀賽季，剛好就像是 Alex Len 去年的 22 歲。那會是小蘭
的第三個 NBA賽季，卻只是他第二個健康的年份。

“We know one day soon if not today it’s going to click and you never have
to look back on that again,” Watson says.

「我們知道很快的某一天──如果不是今天──一切都會成功而你將不用再回望從前
的失敗了。」花生說。




Rookie extension
新秀延長合約

The complicating factor in Len’s progression is that now that he’s growing
out of his ankle issues and trying to find his NBA confidence, he is suddenly
approaching his fourth NBA season and restricted free agency next summer.

小蘭的腳踝跟尋求他在 NBA 中生存的信心是他在延長合約上的不確定因素。他突然就
接近了他的第四個 NBA 賽季，並且即將在明年暑假成為 RFA 。

How much is Alex Len worth on the open market?

那麼，小蘭在市場上大概值多少錢呢？

Len may be struggling in the eyes of many, but the truth is that - as written
above - he was one of only nine players to average 13/10 last spring when
given big minutes. His agent will surely point to that production, plus his
young age (23 next season) and prototypical size and suggest maybe he is
worth huge money.

小蘭在許多人的眼中表現是很掙扎的，但實情是，在給他上場時間的情況下，他畢竟
是九個在上季的春天前可以場均 13-10 的球員中的一位。他的經紀人肯定會強調這點，
而考量到他下個球季才滿 23 歲的年紀跟高度，他很可能取得一張鉅額合約。


We could use this summer’s contracts to 7-footers as a barometer for Len.

我們可以用這個暑假中七呎長人拿到的合約來做小蘭的比較基準：

Timofey Mozgov: $16 million/year
Andre Drummond (RFA): $26 million/year
Hassan Whiteside: $24 million/year
Bismack Biyombo: $18 million/year
Dwight Powell (RFA): $9 million/year
Boban Marjanovic (RFA): $7 million/year
Festus Ezeli: $7.5 million/year
Myers Leonard (RFA): $11 million/year
Miles Plumlee (RFA): $13 million/year
Tyler Zeller (RFA): $8 million/year
Cole Aldrich: $7.3 million/year
(上面應該不用翻譯吧)

Which big men does Alex Len compare most favorably? You might be surprised.
拿小蘭跟哪個長人比較是最有利的？你可能會很驚訝。

As I wrote above, Len was one of only a few big men to post 13/10 last
spring. Among the nine, Drummond and Whiteside got HUGE contracts while the
others are already well compensated.

正如我上面寫的，小蘭是少數在去年春天以前能夠取得 13-10 的長人，而在那九位當
中，抓猛跟白邊已經取得了巨大的合約，而其他人則獲得了不錯的回報。

Is Len comparable to Drummond or Whiteside? No. Not at all. No way Alex Len’
s agent can successfully argue Len is worth Drummond/Whiteside money at this
stage of his career. But what if Len puts it all together next season? What
if he does continue the 13/10 numbers? Does that put him over $20 million per
year next summer?

小蘭可以比照抓猛或白邊嗎？不。一點也不。在小蘭生涯的這個階段，他的經紀人是
不可能幫他爭取到這個等級的薪資的。但如果小蘭的下個賽季被列入考量呢？如果他
繼續取得 13-10 的成績呢？這是否可以讓他值得 20M 的年薪？

More likely, Len’s top-end comparison this summer would be to fight for
Biyombo/Mozgov money. One could argue that Len is a better long-term bet than
either of those big men, given Len’s age and better range of offensive
skills.

在這個夏天更接近小蘭身價的可能會是畢勇伯跟馬子狗。可能會有人以小蘭的年輕和
更好的攻擊技巧與範圍，讓他可以是一個長期投資來爭辯。

At the same time, the Suns would likely argue that Len compares better to
Zeller, Plumlee, Leonard and Ezeli. All of them are 3-4 year veterans
fighting for a regular starting role early in their careers. That comparison
would put Len in the $9-13 million per year range.

但與此同時，太陽同樣可以拿 Zeller 、埔里、 Leonard 跟 Ezeli 這些人來比較。
他們全部都是三到四年的老將了，而他們在生涯的前期就已經取得先發的地位，拿他
們比較的話，小蘭每年預計取得的年薪是 9-13M 這個範圍。



Len comps
小蘭的譜曲

As you can see, Len fits nicely in with these guys when looking at entire
careers. On a per-game basis for their entire careers, Len is second in PPG,
first in RPG, first in BPG but has the worst FG% by far.

如你所見，小蘭目前為止的整個生涯跟這些人放在一起比較看起來蠻適合的。在他的
生涯裡，他是每場比賽平均得分第二高，平均籃板與火鍋最高但又是命中率最差的球
員。


If you look only at the 2015-16 season, Len starts to distance himself from
this pack.

如果你只看 15-16 球季，小蘭開始跟他們有了差距。

He was clearly the most productive of all of these big men last year. Their
seasons netted them contracts ranging from $7.5 million (Ezeli, who is a huge
injury risk) to $13 million (Miles Plumlee, the worst of this lot!).

去年，他顯然是這些人當中最有成效的一位。他們的球季都有著極高的薪資，範圍從
7.5M(Ezeli這樣擁有高傷病風險的球員)到13M(他們裡面表現最糟糕的Miles Plumlee！)

Len’s agent will argue that Len is younger than any of them - Leonard is a
year older than Len, while Plumlee and Zeller were four years older - so Len’
s future is much brighter.

小蘭的經紀人會提出，小蘭是他們當中最年輕的一位── Leonard 比小蘭大了一歲，
埔里跟 Zeller 老了四歲──看起來小蘭的未來光明許多。

And if Len can square away some kind of consistent offense, he might outpace
not only these guys but also Biyombo and Mozgov by next summer.

而如果小蘭能夠重拾他一貫的進攻方式，明年暑假他會超過不只上述這些傢伙，而且
還包括畢勇伯跟馬子狗的薪水。

The Suns should try to lock Len up to a contract extension somewhere south of
$15 million per year this fall, while they have the chance and Len hasn’t
reached his full potential. The Bucks and Blazers and Celtics did that, so
the Suns should make that leap as well.

在小蘭還沒有開發出他全部的天賦之前，太陽應該嘗試在今年秋天用續約的方式，以
每年 15M 左右的薪資把他綁下來。公鹿、拓荒跟老賽都做到了同樣的事，太陽也應該
比照辦理。

I’d guess an offer in the $12-14 million per year range on 4-year extension
would be a good deal for both sides.

我會認為一張四年合約，每年 12-14 M 會是對雙方都很好的選擇。

But Len’s camp might want to hold off one more year and see how the RFA
market works. And if Len really does find his total game this next season,
that price tag could increase by 50%. Or more.

但小蘭的陣營可能會想再等一年看看 RFA 市場會是麼樣的，而如果小蘭確實在下個球
季找回了自己的比賽，他的價碼可能會增加 50% 或者更多。


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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/PHX-Suns/M.1472001443.A.DA0.html
推 mp4871      : 期待他下一季打出來 期待好久了
推 s925407     : 如果他不要再瘋狂投中距離，他應該是可以拿到不錯的
→ s925407     : 合約
→ bll135      : 去年那種情況，讓他投也是應該的吧
→ bll135      : 就是要把他當成什麼樣的中鋒養的問題......
推 kaimar      : 其實他中距離練更準一點 說不定更有威脅
→ bll135      : 他最少最少要養成頂級苦工，不然就是失敗。
推 josephhou   : 基本上除非新球季反而退步，否則Alex Len明年應該蠻
→ josephhou   : 有機會在自由市場得到一張四年7000-8000萬的合約，
→ josephhou   : 這也是太陽很快就即將面對的問題。
推 jlcsn       : 一年12～15是我本來的看法 不過現在是大頂薪時代
→ jlcsn       :  所以15～18也是合理的
→ jlcsn       : 先續約對太陽一定不虧 除非醫龍反對XD
推 PatlaborGao : 除非GM明年FA還是想玩大的,不然當然能先簽是最好
→ bll135      : 他有說他想玩大的欸XD
推 lovemeteor  : 只差沒明講要旅爵的:Q
推 Jazzgun     : 期待它應更有信心。 黑暗期就只關注小蘭跟抓雞了。
→ Jazzgun     : 希望小蘭可以留下
→ bll135      : 我很認同這篇說的，小蘭是自己最大的對手
→ bll135      : 他明明條件跟技術沒那麼大的問題，但在場上還是很容
→ bll135      : 易因為小失誤而懊惱
推 buehrle     : 其實他去年已經是爆炸性成長了。沒看GM都說過去年季
→ buehrle     : 前，小蘭根本沒為球季後半作為主攻這種情況做準備過
→ buehrle     : 。在無準備情況下還有這樣表現，很好啦。他最後表現
→ buehrle     : 下滑，就是季前沒準備，進攻動作不夠熟練的死角被
→ buehrle     : 看破。簡單說，動作出的來，但放球放不進。我不犯
→ buehrle     : 規，不讓你罰球，你就沒輒。不過也不用太在意，
→ buehrle     : 記得MM哥當年的低位單打也是鳥到一個程度，後來也是
→ buehrle     : 練起來。小蘭只要練到MM哥的程度，光想像一個七呎
→ buehrle     : MM哥，還是值得期待的。