Re: [心得] 新球季76人陣容

[jerry7603 ()]

前文恕刪


看到推文去看了Derek Bodner的文章，真的蠻有意思的，提供一個很厲害的想法

想說翻翻看給大家分享，但薪資真的很複雜，所以哪邊翻錯大家可以指正我。



Amir Johnson, Robert Covington, and the Sixers' remaining cap space.

By Derek Bodner


https://goo.gl/488MSV



Over the weekend the Philadelphia 76ers agreed to terms with veteran free
agents J.J. Redick (1 year, $23 million) and Amir Johnson (1 year, $11
million). The moves improved the Sixers’ depth both on the perimeter and in
the frontcourt, provided much-needed shooting to surround Ben Simmons, Joel
Embiid, and Markelle Fultz with, and gave Brett Brown a couple of veterans in
the locker room.

Along with the just over $7 million cap hold for #1 overall pick Markelle
Fultz, that leaves the Sixers with just about $15 million left under the $99
million salary cap.

Next up on the Sixers’ agenda could very well be a renegotiated (and
extended) contract for small forward Robert Covington, something which I’ve
written about in the past (subscribers), and something which Zach Lowe of
ESPN said was likely to happen.

What exactly can the Sixers offer? What is the benefit to doing this? And how
do the Redick and Johnson signings impact the Sixers’ ability to get that
done?




七六人簽下J.J Redick(1年2300萬美元)和Amir Johnson(1年1100萬美元)，這個補強讓七
六人提供了外圍和前場的深度，並為Ben Simmons和Joel Embiid和Markelle Fultz提供了
需要的外線火力，並且給了Brett Brown兩名更衣室的老將。


加上Markelle Fultz大約7M的薪水，七六人離薪資上限大約還有15M的空間(跟板友算的一
樣)。


接下來，七六人可能會把心思放在重新談判(並且延長)Roco的合約，一些我曾經寫過，
ESPN的Zach Lowe也曾經說過的事情可能會發生。


七六人能提供給Roco什麼？這樣做有什麼好處？J.J Redick和Amir Johnson的合約對這些
事會有什麼影響？


(簡單來說就是稍微介紹一下簽約過程，賣個關子要你繼續看下去他說什麼XD)




Some dates:


* July 1st: Robert Covington’s contract can be extended.

* November 15th: Robert Covington’s 2017-18 contract can be renegotiated.

These have to be done at the same time. So, if you want to renegotiate *and*
extend, that has to wait until November 15th.

* February 28th: Last day the Sixers can renegotiate.

* June 30th: Last day the Sixers can extend.

Note: The deadline for Covington’s extension will occasionally be listed as
the end of October, but that is only the deadline for players on a rookie
scale contract. Covington is entering his 5th season in the NBA and was
undrafted, and thus not operating under a rookie scale contract, so his rules
are different. 





一些日期：


7/1 可以「延長」Roco的合約。(extended)


11/15 可以「重新協商」Roco的合約(renegotiated)


如果要兩個動作一起做，那你必須在11/15才能夠一口氣完成延長和重新協商合約。


(編按：這邊說一下「延長」和「重新協商」的差別，「延長」是指從下一年開始跑新合約
，也就是2017-2018這個賽季Roco還是領一百多萬的薪水，下一份合約從2018-2019才開始
生效「重新協商」則是指在今年就直接換合約，新的合約從今年就開始計算，Roco在2017
-2018可以直接領到他和球團協商出來的薪水。)


2/28 最後可以重新協商的日期


6/30 最後可以延長合約的日期


Note：
有些人會把Roco最後延長合約的日期列為10月底，但這是一般新秀最後能夠延長合約的日
期，然而Roco正在邁入他的第五年賽季，且他並非經由選秀會進入NBA，因此並不是依照一
般新秀合約的模式運行。




Renegotiation – The Math

The Sixers are in a unique situation because they still, even after the
Redick and Johnson signings, have upwards of $15 million in salary cap space
remaining, and few options left to use that money responsibly. Heck, they
still have more than $5 million to spend before reaching the cap floor, a
completely overblown “requirement”, but still something that effectively
sets a team baseline for spending. Using that room to renegotiate Covington’
s contract for 2017-18, to essentially give him a “bonus”, makes sense if
it can be used to sign him to a below market deal for an extension.

Let’s say that Covington and his agent have their eyes set on a 4 year, $60
million contract when he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer.
Whether or not he will get that contract is besides the point, in part
because you’re not paying what he’ll get but what will prevent them from
giving up the chance to become an unrestricted free agent, and in part
because this is only a dollar figure created in my head to illustrate a point.




重新協商的數學問題


七六人處於一個很特別的狀態，即使簽下了Redick和Johnson，七六人還是有15M的薪資空
間，但可以讓這個15M的空間發揮它最大效益的選項相當少，而七六人還差5M才能滿足薪
資下限，這也是一個相當不幸的需求，但仍然有個有效率的方法，可以相當有效率的利用
這個空間的方法--用這個空間去和Roco重新協商2017-2018的合約，給他的一個「獎金」，
讓他接受一個稍低於市價的延長合約。


若Roco和他的經紀人決定在明年暑假成為完全自由球員時，他們所尋找的肯定一是一份4
年60M的合約，他會不會得到這個數目的合約並不是重點，重點在於七六人要如何阻止他
成為一個自由球員，而我只知道美金可以征服一切(?)。




With a 4 year, $60 million contract as a completely made up goal, that means
that, when you add in his current $1.57 million deal for the 2017-18 season,
Covington’s earnings over the next 5 years would hypothetically be $61.57
million. Renegotiating his 2017-18 salary can help the Sixers reach this
5-year payout at a far cheaper rate in subsequent years.

The Sixers can renegotiate Covington’s 2017-18 salary up to the amount of
salary cap space they have available, meaning right now they can bump his
2017-18 pay up to $16.57 million. They can then drop the salary from the
renegotiated year (2017-18) to the first year of the extension (2018-19) far
more than the typical 8% max decline. In fact, they can drop the salary by up
to 40% between those two years.

This means that the Sixers can take a significant portion of the cap hit this
year, when they can’t responsibly use their remaining cap space anyway.




Roco預計拿到的價碼


如果以4年60M為目標，也就是說包含即將到來的2017-2018賽季Roco能領到1.57M，加上之
後四年60M，在未來五年，Roco能領到的全部薪水會是61.57M(編按：1.57M+60M)。如果七
六人重新協商Roco在2017-2018合約的話，可以讓合約年限內Roco就拿到這個數目的薪水。


七六人可以重新協商Roco在2017-2018的合約，將所有薪資空間都給他，這樣代表他在
2017-2018年可以拿到16.57M的合約(編按：他自己的1.57M+現在剩下的15M)，然後設定一
個遠遠超過一般人會簽訂，逐年減少8%薪資的合約。而事實上兩年內薪資減少的幅度可以
到達40%(這邊不是很確定，希望有人指正)


這意味著，七六人在在今年的薪資空間中做出重大的決定，之後不能再揮霍他們的薪資空
間了。





To get Covington his money without a renegotiation, the Sixers could sign him
as a free agent with a potential payout over the next 5 years could look like
this:

2017-18: $1.57 million
2018-19: $15.0 million
2019-20: $15.0 million
2020-21: $15.0 million
2021-22: $15.0 million
Total: $61.57 million

Using the $15 million in cap space they have remaining, a renegotiated and
extended contract can instead look like this:

2017-18: $16.57 million
2018-19: $12.8 million
2019-20: $11.8 million
2020-21: $10.8 million
2021-22: $9.7 million
Total: $61.6 million

Did the signings of Redick and Johnson have an impact on this? The Sixers can
still work out a renegotiate and extend contract with Covington when November
15th rolls around, and they can still do so on a deal that is relatively
advantageous to them.

However, the signings did have an impact, albeit small. The more the Sixers
can offer Covington as a bonus this year, the cheaper they can make the
backend of that contract while still getting Covington to the hypothetically
desired $61.57 million mark.

For example, if the Sixers had an extra $5 million in cap space available to
them they could instead offer a renegotiate and extend deal like this:

2017-18: $20.0 million
2018-19: $12.0 million
2019-20: $11.0 million
2020-21: $10.1 million
2021-22: $9.1 million
Total: $62.2 million

That’s not a huge difference, as we’re only talking roughly $700k to
$1 million per year difference, or less than 1% of future salary caps. You also
can’t go too far beyond $20 million this year, since you can only drop the
2018-19 salary by 40% off that renegotiated season. Where that becomes a
factor is if Covington’s actual asking price for an extension is beyond the
4 year, $60 million hypothetical I offered up.





試算薪資


試算一下如果Roco沒有重新協商，作為一個自由球員，七六人可以給他的薪水可能是：


2017-18: $1.57 m
2018-19: $15.0 m
2019-20: $15.0 m
2020-21: $15.0 m
2021-22: $15.0 m

總共:    $61.57 m


再試算一下，如果今年重新協商並延長Roco的合約，七六人能提供給他的合約可能是：


2017-18: $16.57 m
2018-19: $12.8  m
2019-20: $11.8  m
2020-21: $10.8  m
2021-22: $9.7   m

總共:    $61.6  m


(編按：就是說試算後，其實兩種模式Roco能領到的薪水是差不多的)


而Redick和Johnson的合約對這個計畫有影響嗎？有，但是不大，在11月15日七六人仍然可
以和Roco重新協商並延長合約，而且他們仍然可以朝著對他們相對有利一點的方向去進行
。然而，Redick和Johnson的合約確實仍有影響，因為今年如果能給Roco越大的合約，在這
份合約的後面幾年可以更便宜，同時訂下一個金額總數仍然有61.57M美元的合約。


例如說，如果今年七六人多出5M的空間，那Roco的合約可能會變成這樣：


2017-18: $20.0 m
2018-19: $12.0 m
2019-20: $11.0 m
2020-21: $10.1 m
2021-22: $ 9.1 m
總共:    $62.2 m


這不會有很大的差異，因為每年的差距大約只在0.7-1M之間，不到未來薪資上限的1%，而
2017-2018能給的最大薪資也不可能給超過20M，因為2017-2018的薪水和2018-2019的薪水
不能差距超過40%，所以這邊所有的假設建立在於Roco所追求的薪水是4年60M的狀況下為基
礎。




The exact amount Covington will earn on the open market is an interesting
debate in itself. The market for wings dried up considerably this year, as
was expected when the abnormal $24 million salary cap spike heading into the
2016 free agency period created a spending spree that wasn’t going to be
replicated by the relatively small $5 million jump the cap will see this
year. The funny money that guys like Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner received
last year is out the window, thank goodness.

(Note: There are a couple of other example “targets” listed at the bottom
of this article. This was mostly meant to illustrate the benefits of
renegotiating this year, not to debate whether Covington will get, or
warrants,  a 4 year, $60 million extension). 

Still, when convincing Covington to extend now before he even gets to free
agency, you’re not just dealing with equaling whatever Covington would get
in free agency next year, but paying a price that would make Covington and
his agent willing to forgo the process altogether. That’s not always easy to
do, which is why extensions are typically done for guys who are max contract
worthy, the types of guys that the NBA has made extension decisions
no-brainers for.

Yet it makes sense to offer Covington a huge boost in 2017-18 pay in the
hopes that it can get him at a lower per-year contract than if they waited
until next summer to lock him up. They can, essentially, turn what would have
been a $15 million per year contract into an $11.2 million per year contract
thanks to the flexibility their cap space provides. Doing so would give
Covington the same amount of money in the end, but much of it far sooner than
he otherwise would have received. There’s substantial benefits for both
sides.

With Redick (and, to a lesser degree, Johnson) now in the fold, locking
Covington into a long-term deal at a below market rate should be the Sixers’
 top priority. And, luckily, the Amir Johnson contract shouldn’t be too big
of an impediment to getting that done.




Roco在自由市場上的價值本身就是一個有趣的議題，側翼球員在市場上的價值在今年大幅
下降，和2016那個側翼要24M的瘋狂市場比起來，在今年整體價值大約少了5M左右，謝天
謝地像Allen Crabbe和Evan Turner的所收到的報價並不是常態。(這邊也不是很確定，希
忘能指正)


(本文最後還列出了一些其他的情況，只是要說明今年重新談判的好處，並不是在質疑
Roco有沒有4年60M的價值)


儘管如此，要說服Roco和他的經紀人現在簽約而不進入自由市場，並不是端出和他進入自
由市場後能拿到的相同報價一樣就能達成的，這並不容易。這也是為何，對能拿到頂薪的
球員來說，投入自由市場，是完全不需要經過思考的答案。


然而，讓Roco在2017-2018的賽季就拿到一個巨額增長幅度的合約是有Sense的，雖然這會
讓他拿到一個，跟他明年夏天成為自由球員以後，平均年薪比較低的合約，從平均15M變
成平均11.2M的合約，這得益於目前七六人還擁有的薪資彈性。不過這樣做會讓Roco得到
一個金額相同，但能更早能夠拿到錢的合約，這對雙方都有好處。


隨著Redick(和比較小影響的Johnson)簽下後，將Roco以長期低於市價的合約留住，應該
是七六人現在的首要任務，幸運的是，Amir Johnson的合約並不會大到妨礙這樣的操作方
法。




Other Examples:

If Covington is targeting a 4 year, $55 million extension:

(No renegotiation -> with renegotiation)
2017-18: $1.57m -> $16.57m
2018-19: $13.75m -> $11.4m
2019-20: $13.75m -> $10.5m
2020-21: $13.75m -> $9.6m
2021-22: $13.75m -> $8.6m

4 year, $50 million extension:
(No renegotiation -> with renegotiation)
2017-18: $1.57m -> $16.57m
2018-19: $12.5m -> $10.0m
2019-20: $12.5m -> $9.2m
2020-21: $12.5m -> $8.4m
2021-22: $12.5m -> $7.6m

4 year, $48 million extension:
(No renegotiation -> with renegotiation)
2017-18: $1.57m -> $16.0m
2018-19: $12.5m -> $9.6m
2019-20: $12.5m -> $8.8m
2020-21: $12.5m -> $8.1m
2021-22: $12.5m -> $7.3m

4 year, $44 million extension:
(No renegotiation -> with renegotiation)
2017-18: $1.57m -> $14.5m
2018-19: $11.0m -> $8.7m
2019-20: $11.0m -> $8.0m
2020-21: $11.0m -> $7.3m
2021-22: $11.0m -> $6.6m

4 year, $40 million extension:
(No renegotiation -> with renegotiation)
2017-18: $1.57m -> $13.5m
2018-19: $12.5m -> $8.1m
2019-20: $12.5m -> $7.5m
2020-21: $12.5m -> $6.8m
2021-22: $12.5m -> $6.2m




另外的一些試算：


如果Roco只拿4年55M的合約(沒有重新協商/重新協商)


2017-18: $1.57m -> $16.57m
2018-19: $13.75m -> $11.4m
2019-20: $13.75m -> $10.5m
2020-21: $13.75m -> $9.6m
2021-22: $13.75m -> $8.6m


如果Roco只拿4年50M的合約(沒有重新協商/重新協商)


2017-18: $1.57m -> $16.57m
2018-19: $12.5m -> $10.0m
2019-20: $12.5m -> $9.2m
2020-21: $12.5m -> $8.4m
2021-22: $12.5m -> $7.6m


如果Roco只拿4年48M的合約(沒有重新協商/重新協商)


2017-18: $1.57m -> $16.0m
2018-19: $12.0m -> $9.6m
2019-20: $12.0m -> $8.8m
2020-21: $12.0m -> $8.1m
2021-22: $12.0m -> $7.3m


如果Roco只拿4年44M的合約(沒有重新協商/重新協商)


2017-18: $1.57m -> $14.5m
2018-19: $11.0m -> $8.7m
2019-20: $11.0m -> $8.0m
2020-21: $11.0m -> $7.3m
2021-22: $11.0m -> $6.6m


如果Roco只拿4年40M的合約(沒有重新協商/重新協商)


2017-18: $1.57m -> $13.5m
2018-19: $10.0m -> $8.1m
2019-20: $10.0m -> $7.5m
2020-21: $10.0m -> $6.8m
2021-22: $10.0m -> $6.2m


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


標題有些是自己加的，方便大家閱讀。






如果嫌文章太長，這邊簡單來個懶人包





就是延長合約會在下一年開始跑新的合約，重新協商合約會在今年就開始跑新的合約，本
文的作者覺得，如果把剩下的薪資空間都給Roco，讓Roco從2017-2018年就開始不要當低
薪族，然後設定一個逐年遞減的合約，就能讓Roco在未來的五年內領到同樣的合約，可是
在最後幾年七六人面臨Simmons、Saric和Fultz要重新簽約時，能夠擁有更多的薪資彈性，
因為在這個時間點Roco會領著一份，因為逐年遞減而不符合市價的薪水，但作者認為這是
有可能的，因為能夠讓Roco更早領到高額的薪水對他來說不是一件壞事，在薪資成長不如
預期的狀況下，能更早獲得保障，對Roco來說是可以考慮的選項。完全是我沒想過的操作
模式，非常厲害。


最後問個問題，如果重新協商的最後期限是2/28，那Roco在2017-2018的薪水到底怎麼算
啊？季賽都進行到一半了？



如果有問題還麻煩指正，如果以這種薪水遞減的模式留住Roco，好像會是一個非常好的
方法？









--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 123.194.217.76
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Sixers/M.1499539648.A.291.html
※ 編輯: jerry7603 (123.194.217.76), 07/09/2017 02:56:57
推 Alipapa: 推 這樣感覺真的很不錯
推 kenny781558: 好文推 希望真的能續約Roco
推 greencue: 推
推 unicotexalex: Fultz, JJR, Amir都正式簽約囉
推 unicotexalex: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEQeMcFUIAAtnX-.jpg
→ unicotexalex: http://tinyurl.com/y72cr4bx
推 iverson7703: kyle kuzma之前有來我費試訓~打得不錯耶
推 rulDD: 推 ROCO隱形功臣 重要性不下FEDS
推 iAnavel: Kuzma長的真的很像Ben Simmons
推 kenny781558: Simmons長得比較霸氣一點 Kuzma比較稚氣XDDD
※ 編輯: jerry7603 (123.194.217.76), 07/09/2017 12:34:55
推 hijodedios36: 好文 推一個
推 willyt: 本來有打算翻這篇被你搶先了XD
推 Lacus0827: 希望雙贏囉
→ jerry7603: 我就說看到推文才翻的哈哈 最後那邊40m的試算好像有誤
→ jerry7603: 植 回家再用電腦修正 抱歉
推 Zutter77: 推翻譯，辛苦了~
※ 編輯: jerry7603 (123.194.217.76), 07/11/2017 00:24:59