[其他] 高盛： 油價會再次崩跌

[gothmog (上海極司非爾路76號)]

原文如下 懶得看的人 可直接看最後本人的不負責任翻譯

PS: 雖然是4/24的消息 但是放到今天來看 狀況還是一樣



Goldman Sachs Expects Another Oil Price Crash

By ZeroHedge - Apr 24, 2020, 1:00 PM CDT



While it may be tempting to argue that the worst is behind us for oil price given the historic collapse in WTI which crashed to negative $40 on Monday as holders of May WTI futures panicked to sell their holdings at any price - even paying the "buyer" for taking possession of the deliverable barrels - Goldman's chief commodity strategist Jeffrey Currie reminds us that it is important to remember that unlike bonds and stocks, "commodities are spot assets, not anticipatory assets and must clear current
supply and demand, which still remain extremely out of balance in all markets."



And since oil supply remains vastly greater than demand, we are merely in the eye of the hurricane at least until the June WTI maturity in one month, with Goldman expecting the market to test global storage capacity in the next 3-4 weeks - unlike WTI which was merely a Cushing event - which will likely create substantial volatility with more spikes to the downside until supply finally equals demand, as with nowhere to store the oil, supply has no other option but to be shut-in down in-line with the
expected demand losses. Alternatively, we could see another "Monday massacre" with producers of oil willing to pay buyers to take physical possession right around the time all global capacity is full, unless of course US shale producers drastically cut output in the coming days, not weeks.




That's the bad news: the good news is that slowly the market is rebalancing, and once production is well and truly shuttered, there is a potential for a violent price reversal - but remember, one can't just "price it in" as commodities have to reprice through the spot, not forward channel. As Currie notes, "we have now entered the inflection phase where the rebalancing has started, but this period could take 4-8 weeks to resolve before we can comfortably argue a bottom has been carved out." This
timeline assumes that peak demand loss was likely last week with nascent restarts in Europe now underway, but as Goldman concedes substantial uncertainty still remains.




In conclusion, "while acknowledging that a balanced market is in eyesight, more forward-looking assets like equities can look past the next several weeks and begin to price a recovery; however, commodities simply do not have that luxury."


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Goldman-Sachs-Expects-Another-Oil-Price-Crash.html



個人心得 （不負責任翻譯+個人心得）

之前的西德州原油走到負值 ，很多人認為最差的情況已經過了（理論上沒辦法比負值更差）所以開始抄底，

但是高盛首席分析師認為：油跟一般的股票 債卷完全不一樣（現在股票就很明顯跟現實經濟脫鉤），他就是很明白的供給跟需求關係

全球儲存油的空間 大概3-4 禮拜就放不下了， 美國頁岩油商一定要《馬上》《大幅》減產

PS:高盛除了是跨國投資銀行 也是美國國庫證券的國債一級自營商，也是通常意義上的知名做市商 ，所以他並不希望看到美國油商倒閉

只要供給跟需求能到一個平衡 油價就有可能快速反轉


如果一切都在掌控之內（達到平衡）那至少也要4-8禮拜
而且大家都知道有太多的不確定性因素


最後高盛又佛心的再提醒一次 ，這種大宗商品 跟 股票這種信心資產 完全是兩碼子事 一切要看市場真實情況



--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 223.136.147.10 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1588124839.A.57C.html
推 mynumber55  : 原油以進場
推 ginsengwolf : 還有三四個禮拜可以逃 安啦
推 ppp222500   : 樓下推已反應
→ IBIZA       : 要走出谷底最快也要等到下個月WTI結算 再看看有沒有
→ IBIZA       : 機會
→ imymeyou    : 好，反著看
→ ting74942   : 股市都不理油價了...
推 kimkim9988  : 反著做就對了，先賺51復工這段再說
→ IBIZA       : 並不是股市不理油價  而是這件事情市場早已經理解
→ IBIZA       : 除非你直接完油, 不然除了原油最前端短期尬不過來的
→ IBIZA       : 公司, 其他影響不會太大
推 cfk301      : 去搜一下2018的新聞~「油價或將衝破100元關卡」....
→ cfk301      : .結果不忍直視
推 Leo4891     : 進場訊號是不是來惹?
推 choneix     : 誰管你油價  股市漲翻天就好
推 Eleganse    : 這訊號提示得太明顯了吧
推 castalchen  : 是的 但跟股市無關
推 ethan0419   : 我也想買油惹
推 t88965      : 要噴了
推 shinjikawuru: 買進信號
推 amhs        : 訊號來了.....
推 wing740719  : 可以買進了~GOGO
→ wing740719  : 看WTI的線型~雙底都打完了~高盛說會崩盤(笑)
推 sawaman     : 說真的還不到抄底時機，還早，可以出國旅遊再說= =
→ jorden      : 反著看
推 poi96300    : 正2看來到底部了
推 fasterbook  : 買進訊號
推 zxcv91039   : ALL IN
推 deann       : 穩了
噓 qqq5890003  : 穩了
→ blademaster : 今天油價暴漲
推 skyoneaim   : 高盛是著名的反指標
推 frankfurt   : 反着看，可以入場了
→ IBIZA       : 高盛這個最大黑手竟然被說是反指標....
→ IBIZA       : 2008年受創的四大投資銀行, 高盛是唯一能恢復元氣的
推 summerleaves: 大摩小摩才是正。反指標吧
→ alvin781205 : 散戶就在那邊喊外資小兒，殊不知人家機構才是常勝軍
推 kipi91718   : 穩了
→ billionaire : 底部到了
推 ts123       : all in
→ jimhall     : 應該是高盛吃貨還不夠，所以希望別人先不要買
→ jimhall     : 正二有政府護著，除非天塌下來
→ jimhall     : 而且既然一定會減產，甚至有業者被淘汰，那油價不
→ jimhall     : 就只有向上的空間
推 bboywhite   : 反著看
→ jackygba    : 債ㄑㄩㄢˋ
推 PeikangShin : 跟著星聞對作，超easy，保證金調高就是狂噴^_^
推 greentea8132: 他原文是說相信低點已過，但要3~4周確認，這新聞節
→ greentea8132: 錄片段而已
→ Petrovsky   : 多單該死的都死了 油價已經見到底部
→ efreetia    : 高盛這波還算準喔....
→ efreetia    : 我只是單純覺得外資在逃命 散戶擠進去的地方不要去
推 StuLeo      : 感謝高盛信心加持！ all in 原油啦！
推 asole       : 那就是要噴爆了
推 jagger      : 底部訊號到，三個禮拜後歐印抄底
噓 mepowerlmay : 高盛這騙子公司
推 mepowerlmay : 感謝送錢