Fw: [閒聊] 一些關於 intel 和 AMD的傳聞 from reddit

[flylee (牛轉乾坤)]

※ [本文轉錄自 PC_Shopping 看板 #1V3d-G3i ]

作者: flylee (牛轉乾坤) 看板: PC_Shopping
標題: [閒聊] 一些關於 intel 和 AMD的傳聞 from reddit
時間: Wed Jul 15 12:01:18 2020

https://bit.ly/3h1IFTm

Charlie Demerjian 在 Susquehanna 新爆的一些料，他以前爆些有關intel的料都還蠻準的

uzzi38整理如下

    ．Facebook like bfloat16 and Cooper Lake <lost phone line, reconnect 10 mins later>

    ．Alder Lake is 14nm GPU and 10nm CPU

    ．Several projects - including major ones, not PCHs etc were going to be TSMC.
      No divulging of codenames for now.

    ．Jim Keller was the one pushing for projects at TSMC?

    ．Jim and Murphy were butting heads as of last year on technical decisions

    ．No chance at 7nm volume in '21. Maybe a launch for certain projects, but volume is '22.
      Was planning for H1 21 not too long ago, but no chance.

    ．SPR taping out in more steps than normal. Intel are taping out regardless of any bugs
      they know will exist, fixing and retaping immedietly. Phone line was choppy here,
      but I believe something was said along the lines of this being a very expensive yet
      faster way of getting the chip ready for production,

    ．Apple will definitely make a full transition to ARM in 2 years.

    ．No specific numbers for Milan over Rome today, but 20%+ should be a minimum expectation.
      Milan is on track for later this year.

    ．Genoa and Turin are same platform. 10 channel DDR5, CXL, PCIe Gen 5, all the good stuff.
      Was already known but a re-iteration for those that want a refresher.

    ．COVID is having an impact on AMD pickup in servers. Projects with new server hardware were
      put on hold. No boots on the ground, nobody ready to break new systems in. This will blow
      over by EoY, especially with Milan coming.

    ．ICL-SP availability Nov -> Mar

    ．No chance of GNR in '22. Expect it in '23.

    ．Apple moving to ARM is pushing MS to get better support with ARM solutions...
      but so far progress is lacklustre. Will take a while for things to change.

    ．Xe loses competitiveness very fast. Starts of adequate, but won't remain that way.

    ．Nvidia: Lacking 7nm capacity hard because of shenanigans with TSMC. TSMC just did not care
      about them trying to play games with them.

    ．Rome security features are quite something. Only 1-3% perf hit for real security.

    ．Best case is SPR for security as good as Rome

    ．When Milan releases Intel will not have a ST lead in server


xceryx的整理如下

    1) Icelake paper launched this year due to security bugs but no OEM volume until March 2021

    2) 2 of 3 fabs running test line 10nm. Still issues with 10nm process.

    3) Tigerlake is supposedly a better 10nm+ process but yield is still low.

    4) Cooperlake is bad vs Icelake but Facebook is the primary customer for Bfloat 16 AI workload
       and 4P setup

    5) 4C Tigerlake with big GPU area due to low yield

    6) Alderlake 10nm GPU and 14nm CPU, due to low margin

    7) Sapphire Rapid is taping it out as new way of taping/steps

    8) Kellar pushed hard to outsource TSMC, and that's why he was gone.

    9) Apple will transition to ARM completely but MacPro will probably be around for a long time,
       similar to last time they moved to x86.

    10) AMD has a lot of wafer allocations due to Huawei

    11) AMD proven track record of roadmap

    12) AMD server share was trending below what Charlie expected, COVID being an example of customer
        expanding current capacity.

    13) Sapphire Rapid is likely 2022H1 as Icelake is really deploying 2021H1.

    14) Intel 7nm Granite Rapid is unlikely to show up in 2022, at least 2023 due to 13).


--
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→ ayuhb       : 翻譯
推 mayolane    : JK因為推GG被I家趕走哦
推 hankower    : N惡作劇GG, 所以分不到7nm產能？ 笑死
推 asdg62558   : jk原來是這樣才走人的喔
推 bunjie      : 幫JK QQ
推 comipa      : Intel寫個慘字
推 shasen1235  : i家的製程場這麼屌喔，托半天做不出來沒人念，還可
→ shasen1235  : 以搞走現役U界扛壩子
推 Shauter     : 723跟C52想一下怎麼嘴這段稿
→ comipa      : 你可以想成Intel一半的勢力是Fab那邊的 死守防線
→ comipa      : 答應外包給TSMC就跟諾曼第被登陸大概差不多QQ
推 jerrychuang : AMD server QQ，Milan什麼時候出阿?
推 iWRZ        : 希望JK再回歸AMD
推 Shigeru777  : 哈 intel要不要改成fabless阿 就像割GF一樣
→ Shigeru777  : 不然現在的fab根本廢到笑
推 dustlike    : 10nm+還是低良率 我看繼續等囉
→ bubunana    : 哇！ 真勁爆耶...
推 superRKO    : 我看intel還是直接跳7nm算了
推 sirakuma    : 寧可鬥走JK也不外包 真的活該被A壓著打
推 KotoriCute  : 爆料源頭是 semiaccurate 的 Charlie  嗯....
→ KotoriCute  : 他大概是歐美科技媒體最知名的i黑了
→ friedpig    : adl gpu照之前透漏應該是gg的吧
推 Nexus5X     : 外包個雕啊 機台廠房費用你攤嗎
推 henry46277  : Zen3  Milan 如期上市 且 至少比Rome 強至少20% ->
→ henry46277  : 不知道是不是包括頻率提升的部分
推 zsp40773    : intel不需要JK就能痛電AMD了
→ zsp40773    : 看看酷銳控肉把A10跟推土機打成藍鳥臉就知
推 henry46277  : 雖然也有可能我理解錯誤
→ azuel       : 外包了當然就是把fab分拆出去自生自滅啊分攤啥
→ henry46277  : 有人要跟我一起召喚 水瓶座大大嗎？
噓 WARgame723  : 傻了才給台積電，ㄏㄏ，intel卡關一下就忘記以前i
→ WARgame723  : 皇怎麼虐爆台積電的啊？euv後重新振作要虐台積電小
→ WARgame723  : 事而已
推 BangSaint556: 推樓上
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
※ 轉錄者: flylee (220.132.106.21 臺灣), 07/15/2020 13:07:09

intel AMD nvidia 台積電 的多角關係

噓 soyghcg     : 美國政府開大決拆分台GG Intel再出手吃下 根本小事
→ soyghcg     : 美國政府又不是沒這樣幹過
推 poeoe       : 這太有趣了XD
→ py602270421 : 台積就美國公司啊
※ 編輯: flylee (220.132.106.21 臺灣), 07/15/2020 13:14:51
→ py602270421 : 若要美國要撤出南京廠台積也不敢說不
推 miracle210  : 講一下怎麼分拆
推 mind324     : 蘋果已經看到I皇毀了才斷腕的
推 NCKUFatPork : Amd Server起飛還要等多久QQ, Intel這麼爛結果還是
→ NCKUFatPork : 爽吃. 看來這一波財報Server擔憂
推 Lightee26   : omG 財報爆炸倒數
推 loat        : 乾脆JK去tsmc好了(誤
推 leehao      : 樓上推intel的知道他們家有幾台EUV嗎? keener
推 mind324     : 3950x效能不差，但優化未知。市場上太多洋垃圾
→ mind324     : 新一代這幾個月會出吧
→ JuiFu617    : 請問intel目前拿euv做什麼？gg不是靠duv打euv
→ mind324     : 洋垃圾兩顆效能抵得過AMD一顆，也便宜
→ kevin850717 : Intel 10nm約等於它廠7nm，論用DUV，I家沒輸
→ dslite      : 所以amd完蛋的意思
→ demintree   : JK不是那樣子走的吧，JK離開前公司都是馬上就換了
→ demintree   : 他還繼續當consult，問題應該不是那樣子
→ demintree   : 為什麼會認為Intel不用買euv,他有繼續往下做就需要
→ demintree   : server沒有多幾個世代的rampup很難大量換吧
推 holymars    : Intel的10nm晚了兩年良率還比人差時脈也拉不上去
→ holymars    : 這樣叫沒輸喔..
推 neo5277     : 這篇可以留下來印證一下哈，估計會是神串要先留名
推 donkilu     : 老黃之前想用轉單三星當威脅 GG很不爽
推 geminitw    : 電蝦版一堆AMD換貨文，台吱繼續笑intel
→ sethero5    :     我還真的知道intel有幾台EUV，litho台灣人很多
→ sethero5    : 。10nm以下一定要用EUV,所以ASML股票要買好買滿。真
→ sethero5    : 正的決勝點是TSMC 5nm vs INTC 7nm
推 jatj        : 痾 我也知道intc幾台euv 這是秘密嗎
→ bubunana    : 現在幾台是重點嗎？還在研發端驗證IP階段 能知道未
→ bubunana    : 來1-2年內能到幾台5k+部署在產線上比較重要
→ AllenLee1011: 術語名稱都對，重點是AMD got a lot of wafer due t
→ AllenLee1011: o H 顆顆  華為概念股請小心
推 ariadne     : 講洋垃圾是要笑死誰？洋垃圾越多intel受傷越重好嗎
→ ariadne     : intel是能從洋垃圾上賺到更多收益嗎？巴不得消滅咧