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原文標題：
Hungary central bank leaves rates steady as inflation spike looms
匈牙利央行維持利率穩定，因通貨膨脹率高漲臨近
原文連結：
https://reurl.cc/8yxkgy
發布時間：
Published 1 day ago on 27/04/2021
原文內容：
BUDAPEST (Reuters) – The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) left interest rates
unchanged on Tuesday, as widely expected, before an expected rise in
inflation.
The bank, which had pledged maintain price stability during the third wave of
the coronavirus pandemic, considers the rise temporary but has said it would
closely monitor for any possible second-round effects.
The NBH left its base rate at 0.6% and the overnight deposit rate at -0.05%,
in line with the unanimous forecast of economists in a Reuters poll. At 1201
GMT, the forint traded at 362.65 versus the euro, unchanged from levels just
before the announcement.
get any work done online
The overwhelming majority of economists also expect the NBH to leave its
one-week deposit rate steady at 0.75% — a level where it has stayed since
September's 15-basis-point hike — at least through to the end of the third
quarter.
"There is no consideration of (quantitative easing) tapering or rate hikes at
this time," said economist Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank, adding that the bank's
current policy stance was widely considered to be adequate.
"We do not anticipate developments in this direction until Fed rate hikes
clearly come within view, perhaps by late 2022. For now, (NBH's) status quo
is likely to persist."
gawdo.com
The central bank expects headline inflation to approach 5% in the second
quarter, driven by fuel prices and tax changes, overshooting its 2% to 4%
target range by a wide margin.
However, it sees tax-adjusted core inflation, its preferred measure of
lasting price trends, close to its 3% policy anchor over the next three years.
Some economists have said, however, the NBH may be forced to raise its
one-week deposit rate if inflation rises higher still, weakening the
Hungarian forint, which had skirted record lows versus the euro last month.
(Reporting by Gergely Szakacs; Editing by Angus MacSwan)
機翻如下：
布達佩斯（路透社）--匈牙利國家銀行（NBH）週二在預期的通貨膨脹率上升之前，如廣
泛預期的那樣，維持利率不變。
該銀行曾承諾在第三波冠狀病毒大流行期間保持價格穩定，它認為這種上升是暫時的，但
它表示將密切關注任何可能的第二輪影響。
NBH將其基準利率保持在0.6%，隔夜存款利率保持在-0.05%，符合路透社調查中經濟學家
的一致預測。格林威治時間1201，福林對歐元的交易價格為362.65，與公佈前的水準持平
。
絕大多數經濟學家還預計，國家銀行將把一周存款利率穩定在0.75%--自9月上調15個基點
以來一直保持這一水準--至少要到第三季度末。
德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)的經濟學家Tatha Ghose說："目前沒有考慮（量化寬鬆）縮
減或加息，"他補充說，該行目前的政策立場被廣泛認為是充分的。
"我們預計，在美聯儲加息明確進入視野之前，也許到2022年底，不會有這方面的發展。
目前，（NBH的）現狀可能會持續下去。"
央行預計，在燃料價格和稅收變化的推動下，第二季度總體通脹率將接近5%，大大超出其
2%至4%的目標範圍。
然而，它認為經過稅收調整的核心通脹率（其首選的持久價格趨勢衡量標準）在未來三年
內接近其3%的政策錨。
然而，一些經濟學家表示，如果通貨膨脹率繼續上升，國家銀行可能被迫提高其一周的存
款利率，從而削弱匈牙利福林，上個月福林對歐元的匯率曾接近歷史最低點。
(Report by Gergely Szakacs; Editing by Angus MacSwan)
心得/評論：
美溫外熱
除了美國以外的國家看起來溫度都比美國燙手一點
預期所有第三世界國家特別是金融業越不發達通膨會越熱
基本上智利殺雞取卵提高銅礦稅收也可以看做是這個現象的影響
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