推 Toge : 難怪昨晚油股噴了？ 06/02 07:58
原文標題：
OPEC+ Gives Little Away as It Sees Oil Market Tightening
當OPEC+原油市場緊張時未放寬供給
原文連結：
https://reurl.cc/3aNOqV
發布時間：
Jun 01, 2021
原文內容：
(Bloomberg) — OPEC+ left oil consumers in limbo, sticking to its plan of
monthly production increases until July but refusing to give any hints about
further moves until there’s clear evidence more crude is needed.
“The demand picture has shown clear signs of improvement,” Saudi Energy
Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said, in some of his most upbeat
comments since the price crash last year. But pressed on whether more supply
increases will be needed, he said: “I will believe it when I see it.”
The wait-and-see approach indicates that OPEC+ is likely to err on the side
of caution, potentially responding too late if the energy market tightens
rapidly, as OPEC itself is forecasting. The risk for the broader economy is
faster inflation just as it’s recovering from the pandemic.
Hours before oil producers gathered virtually, the International Energy
Agency warned of a looming gap between rising demand and stagnant supply in
the second half of the year, putting upward pressure on prices.
“Demand growth is outpacing supply gains even with the agreed month-by-month
OPEC+ production increases taken into account,” said Ann-Louise Hittle, oil
analyst at consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd.
The IEA, which advises Western countries on energy policy, forecast that
global oil demand will jump roughly 5 million barrels a day — the equivalent
of the production of Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates — between now and
the end of the year.
With Brent crude rising above $70 a barrel on Tuesday, OPEC+ is now at the
center of one of the most pressing debates in global markets: the threat of
inflation. From the U.S. Federal Reserve to the People’s Bank of China,
central bankers are starting to sweat about rising prices, particularly for
commodities such as steel and lumber that later filter into the cost of
everyday goods. Prince Abdulaziz said that Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil
producers weren’t to blame, with oil having a “minuscule” impact.
And yet, Western consumers are feeling the pinch. In America, average retail
gasoline prices rose to a six-year high above $3 per gallon over the Memorial
Day weekend, which traditionally marks the start of the summer driving season.
“This inflation issue is not going away,” said Bill Farren-Price, a
director at research firm Enverus and veteran observer of the cartel. “If
OPEC+ are smart they will start to worry about the risk of demand being
eroded as oil gets into the $70s.”
For Prince Abdulaziz, the concern about inflation marks a welcome turn-around
for the oil market, however. The veteran Saudi minister has spent the year
leading an often unruly coalition of oil producing nations that cut
production significantly and only recently has started to boost output in
response to higher demand and rising prices. Rather than high oil prices,
OPEC+ has been battling with ultra-low ones for most of 2020 and early 2021.
At one point last year, West Texas Intermediate traded in negative territory,
with producers having to pay consumers.
The experience of the last year has left deep scars within the coalition. And
Saudi Arabia has reason to be cautious about the second half, with the
outlook dependent on two hard-to-predict factors: the coronavirus and nuclear
talks between Tehran and Washington.
While oil demand is improving in the Americas and Europe, the opposite is
happening in Asia as the spread of new variants prompts lockdowns from India
to Japan, Vietnam and Malaysia.
“Covid-19 is a persistent and unpredictable foe, and vicious mutations
remain a threat,” OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said.
Atomic Diplomacy
The nuclear talks, which diplomats initially said were aiming for a deal by
June, appear more complicated than anticipated. Iran and the U.S. will
probably need more time to iron out their differences, with a deal
potentially delayed until August.
“They’re going to wait and see what happens with Iran. If Iran does get
delayed and if demand picks up as we expect, then OPEC will need to bring
barrels back,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy
Aspects.
Prince Abdulaziz is probably also waiting for the market to digest all the
new oil that Saudi Arabia and the rest of the OPEC+ is adding. In May, the
cartel added 600,000 barrels a day extra. This month it will increase another
700,000 barrels a day, and in July nearly 850,000 barrels more. The impact
will only be felt later this summer.
But the wait-and-see approach presents a problem for consumers: refiners
unsure of OPEC’s next moves may rush into the spot market before prices rise
further. And as prices go higher, others refiners will do the same, creating
a spiral. There are signs investors are already expecting that to happen.
機翻如下：
彭博社）--OPEC+讓石油消費者陷入困境，堅持其7月前的月度增產計畫，但拒絕對進一步
的行動作出任何暗示，直到有明確的證據表明需要更多原油。
沙特能源部長阿卜杜勒-阿齊茲-本-薩勒曼(Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman)說，"需求情
況已經顯示出明顯的改善跡象，"這是他自去年價格暴跌以來最樂觀的一些評論。但在被
問及是否需要增加供應時，他說。"當我看到它時，我會相信它。"
這種觀望的做法表明，OPEC+可能會謹慎行事，如果能源市場迅速收緊，可能會太晚做出
反應，正如OPEC自己所預測的。更廣泛的經濟面臨的風險是，正當它從大流行病中恢復的
時候，通貨膨脹會加快。
在石油生產者聚集在一起討論的幾個小時前，國際能源署警告說，今年下半年需求增長和
供應停滯之間的差距迫在眉睫，給價格帶來上漲壓力。
"諮詢公司Wood Mackenzie Ltd.的石油分析師Ann-Louise Hittle說："即使將商定的
OPEC+逐月增產考慮在內，需求增長也超過了供應增長。
為西方國家提供能源政策建議的國際能源署預測，從現在起到今年年底，全球石油需求將
每天猛增約500萬桶，相當於科威特和阿拉伯聯合酋長國的產量。
隨著布倫特原油在週二升至每桶70美元以上，OPEC+現在處於全球市場最緊迫的辯論之一
的中心：通貨膨脹的威脅。從美國聯邦儲備委員會到中國人民銀行，央行行長們都開始為
價格上漲捏一把汗，特別是鋼鐵和木材等商品的價格上漲，這些商品後來都滲透到日常商
品的成本中。阿卜杜勒阿齊茲王子說，沙烏地阿拉伯、俄羅斯和其他石油生產國不應該受
到指責，石油的影響 "微不足道"。
然而，西方消費者正在感受到壓力。在美國，平均零售汽油價格在陣亡將士紀念日的週末
上升到每加侖3美元以上的六年高點，而這個週末傳統上標誌著夏季駕駛季節的開始。
"這個通貨膨脹問題不會消失，"研究公司Enverus的董事、卡特爾的資深觀察家比爾-法倫
-普萊斯說。"如果OPEC+聰明的話，他們會開始擔心石油進入70美元時需求被侵蝕的風險
。"
然而，對於阿卜杜勒-阿齊茲王子來說，對通貨膨脹的擔憂標誌著石油市場的一個可喜轉
機。這位資深的沙特部長在這一年裡領導了一個經常不守規矩的產油國聯盟，該聯盟大幅
減產，直到最近才開始提高產量，以應對需求增加和價格上漲。與其說是高油價，OPEC+
在2020年大部分時間和2021年初一直在與超低油價作鬥爭。去年，西德克薩斯中質油一度
在負值區域交易(負油價事件)，生產商不得不向消費者付款。
去年的經歷在聯盟內部留下了深深的傷痕。沙烏地阿拉伯有理由對下半年持謹慎態度，前
景取決於兩個難以預測的因素：冠狀病毒和德黑蘭與華盛頓之間的核談判。
雖然美洲和歐洲的石油需求正在改善，但在亞洲卻發生了相反的情況，因為新變種的傳播
促使從印度到日本、越南和馬來西亞的石油禁運。
"OPEC秘書長穆罕默德-巴爾金多說："Covid-19是一個持久的、不可預測的敵人，惡性變
異仍然是一種威脅。
原子外交
外交官們最初說，核談判的目標是在6月前達成協議，現在看來比預期的要複雜。伊朗和
美國可能需要更多的時間來消除他們的分歧，一項協議可能會推遲到8月。
"他們將等待並觀察伊朗的情況。諮詢公司Energy Aspects的首席石油分析師Amrita Sen
說："如果伊朗確實被推遲，而且如果需求像我們預期的那樣回升，那麼OPEC將需要把油
桶運回來。
阿卜杜勒-阿齊茲王子可能也在等待市場消化沙烏地阿拉伯和其他OPEC成員國正在增加的
所有新石油。5月份，卡特爾每天額外增加60萬桶。這個月，它將每天再增加70萬桶，7月
將增加近85萬桶。這種影響在今年夏天晚些時候才會顯現出來。
但這種等待和觀望的做法給消費者帶來了一個問題：不確定OPEC下一步行動的煉油商可能
會在價格進一步上漲之前沖進現貨市場。而隨著價格走高，其他煉油商也會這樣做，形成
螺旋式上升。有跡象表明，投資者已經在期待這種情況的發生。
心得/評論：
只有被市場意識到的利空才會成為真正的利空
(利多) (利多)
近期歐美消費者和投資人的表現正在讓通膨的預言自我證成
在這樣的過程中，任何材料都會被找來當成材薪
期待六月的大火
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