Re: [心得] 昨晚美國市場的一些看法

[lelu (樂路)]

===============先閒聊===============
本來想說總經沒人喜歡看
而且FOMAC六、七、九月都召開會議
可是每次都說要觀察要觀察
說真的三個月很難有什麼大便...大變化

可以預期這三次會議都不會有重大決策改變
所以我也沒很認真看七月的會議紀錄

遙想當年，教總經的教授說總經很難
不要以為你們這些大四的屁孩
上了半學期課就可以自稱懂總經

所以預設考試頂標就是60分

不是老師只出滿分60分的考卷
那是四題問答題，每題25分
老師會把你扣到不及格
(因為M1增加所以預期CPI上升?扣25分)
班平均好像是45分左右,也有考到7X分的

不過因為老師又說大四不當人
所以期末會把分數再加上去

對利率很在行的，可以去訂閱the Banker期刊
年費只要台幣十萬元喔

以上題外話

===============正文===============
有關這次FOMAC會議紀錄
有一些有趣的心得跟大家分享

先說結論
1.
對於專注Equity的我來說
本月起我認為重點已經不在於收不收債
而是關心全球疫情發展

Delta愈兇，疫苗打愈慢，抄底機會就愈大
(但，有底可抄就表示股市得先探底，+~表示欣喜)

2.
史詩級大泡泡有其基本面支撐
但泡泡總是會破
我覺得2022H2或2023Q2之前要做好準備(p.9)

======================================
然後是這次的會議紀錄，
要按END的可以按了

首先在p.2
有關債市的變化被認為是縮債的提前反應，聯準會注意到了
The manager turned first to a discussion of developments in financial
markets. Although there were notable moves in some asset prices over the
intermeeting period, overall financial conditions ended the period little
changed at historically accommodative levels. Market participants seemed to
interpret communications associated with the June FOMC meeting as signaling
a less accommodative path of monetary policy than had been anticipated.
Implied rates on interest rate futures initially rose following the meeting
but subsequently retraced, and expectations regarding the path of the target
federal funds rate over the next few years ended the period only modestly
changed.[...]

似乎市場認為Fed會提早縮債，或縮債力度會比預期大

但因為長期指標都是穩定的
所以對於市場解讀董事會的說法
董事會沒有進一步評論XD

後面董事會則反駁提早縮債或大力度收錢的說法
所以說QE is over的人你們的臉腫了嗎?

關於ON RRP，是Fed的新技能
董事會認為這招還不錯，成功的消弭短期因素
但很快的額度要滿了
董事會認為可以考慮加碼

同時也通過了新技能：SRF跟FIMA

泥坎坎泥坎坎
Fed有repo有ON RRP有SRF有FIMA可以用
時代不同了，不要只會債來債去息來息去的


在p.4
關於收債的時間表
Participants discussed aspects of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases,
including progress made toward the Committee’s maximum-employment and
price-stability goals since the adoption of the asset purchase guidance in
December 2020. They also considered the question of how asset purchases might
be adjusted once eco-nomic conditions met the standards of that guidance.
Participants agreed that their discussion at this meeting would be helpful
background for the Committee’s future decisions about modifying asset
purchases. No decisions regarding future adjustments to asset purchases were
made at this meeting.

對，這次Fed才開始討論要怎麼縮債
Fed自己都還不知到債要怎麼縮
但市場已經在預測縮債時間點

這段有兩個重點
1.收債的時程表端賴兩個指標:就業情況 & (長期)物價穩定
2.本次會議並未對未來縮債計畫做出任何決定

在討論中，Fed同意縮債計畫對市場會有影響
甚至聯準會的一舉一動都被市場高度解讀
並警示這些影響可能會高於董事會的預期
所以縮債計畫必須謹慎

說真的，我們只能期望
聯準會的縮債計畫不會跟阿富汗撤兵行動一樣成功

至於1
Most participants judged that the Commit-tee’s standard of “substantial
further progress” toward the maximum-employment goal had not yet been met.
At the same time, most participants remarked that this standard had been
achieved with respect to the price stability goal.

董事會認為就業情況未達標
但物價穩定已經在掌控之中

在p.5董事會進行進了激烈的...意見交換
意見相當分歧，有興趣的自己看

結論是
1.Fed在實行縮債時會致力穩定市場，避免市場劇烈波動
2.確定要做時Fed要給市場一個明確的訊號，避免上述情形發生
3.至於什麼時候做，要再觀察一段時間

p.6記述董事會對經濟情況的review
關於物價部分和上次論述差不多
Q2 實質GDP成長率優於Q1

大非農很樂觀，就業率已回復2/3
然而，但是，however
六月失業率仍維持在5.9%

此外
Available indicators suggested that growth in business fixed investment had
slowed sharply in the second quarter, reflecting disruptions to motor
vehicle production and aircraft deliveries and a faster rate of decline in
non-residential structures investment.
Growth in manufacturing output had picked up modestly in the second quarter.
Although production in the chemicals industry had rebounded from the
weather-related disruptions earlier in the year, the supply chain issues
faced by a number of other industries, particularly the motor vehicle
industry, continued to weigh on overall factory output.

其他的自己看

然後
Real goods imports in May retraced only a bit of their April decline, but
they were still at the second-highest level on record. Real goods exports
edged down in May and remained below pre-COVID-19 levels.

所以the World還是要美國人買買買來救經濟
同時美國製造業還有成長空間

同時
Bottlenecks in the global semiconductor industry continued to weigh on
exports and imports of automotive products, and shipping congestion likely
continued to restrain trade overall. Although international travel recovered
further in May, exports and imports of services remained depressed relative
to pre-pandemic levels.

所以我猜這是先前二哥噴噴的原因
然後郭董大喜(至少for the next 12 months)

這裡還有一個重點：
經濟復甦的最後觀察指標將是旅遊服務業的復甦
結果7月旅遊、航空業抖了一下害大家空歡喜一場

在p.7
The situation was quite different in some emerging market economies (EMEs)
whose low vaccination rates left them vulnerable to new waves of infections.
Although new COVID-19 cases fell dramatically in India after the surge in May
and June, the situation deteriorated markedly in several Southeast Asian
countries, whose cases and deaths rose to all-time highs. In addition, the
increased prevalence of new virus variants, particularly the Delta variant,
underscored the continued uncertainty about the foreign outlook. Inflation
rose further in most foreign economies, reflecting a reversal of price
declines seen in the spring of 2020, higher energy and commodity prices, and
supply bottlenecks.

所以經濟復甦還得看疫苗覆蓋率跟Delta發展
which,目前來說,糟透了

接下來打臉有人說Fed不關心股票
Over the intermeeting period, fluctuations in financial markets appeared to
be driven by less-accommodative-than-expected June FOMC communications, a
reduction in investor perceptions of the risk of persistently high
inflation, increased concerns about the rapid spread of the Delta variant,
and stronger-than-anticipated inflation data. Longer-dated Treasury yields
fell, largely reflecting declines in real yields, while longer-horizon
forward measures of inflation compensation also declined. Domestic equity
prices rose moderately, and corporate bond spreads remained near the low end
of their historical ranges.
[...]
Broad stock market prices rose moderately over the in-termeeting period,
supported in part by some strong sec-ond-quarter earnings reports that
bolstered investor risk sentiment. However, some prices declined for stocks
that historically have moved more closely with economic conditions—such as
stocks for smaller companies and for firms in cyclical industries—as did
stock prices for firms in sectors such as airlines and hotels that were
negatively affected by the pandemic. Bank stock prices also fell. One-month
option-implied volatility on the S&P 500—the VIX—spiked to reach a
two-month high. For the intermeeting period as a whole, however, the VIX was
little changed, on net, and remained somewhat above its average pre-pandemic
levels.

所以我認為現在投資small cap風險會比較高
難怪女股神被唱衰

接下來Fed對ON RRP歌功頌德，我們先跳過

然後
Concerns about the worldwide spread of the Delta vari-ant weighed somewhat on
risk sentiment in global financial markets over the intermeeting period.
The dollar broadly appreciated, longer-term yields in major advanced foreign
economies decreased notably, and most major foreign equity indexes declined
moderately.

千萬不要錯過
Equity markets in China and Hong Kong underperformed notably amid increased
regulatory uncertainty in China.

聯準會給陸港股補刀，哈哈UCCU

然後由於公司債減少，C&I也減少
儘管C&I有成長，但需求卻遠低於預期
因此似乎中小企業的經營仍嚴峻
且風險逐漸升高

p.9
The projection for U.S. economic activity prepared by the staff for the July
FOMC meeting was little changed,[...] at a rapid pace. For the year as a whole, therefore, real
GDP was projected to post a substantial increase, with a correspondingly
large decline in the unemployment rate. With the boost to spending growth
from continued reductions in social distancing assumed to fade after 2021
and with a further unwinding of the effects of fiscal stimulus, GDP growth
was expected to step down in 2022 and 2023. However, with monetary policy
assumed to remain highly accommodative, the staff continued to anticipate
that real GDP growth would outpace growth in potential output over most of
this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically
low levels.

我畫的是我認為未來觀察和決策的重點

至於通膨
The staff’s near-term outlook for inflation was revised up further in
response to incoming data, but the staff continued to expect that this year’
s rise in inflation would prove to be transitory. The 12-month change in
total and core PCE prices was well above 2 percent in May, and available data
suggested that PCE price inflation would remain high in June. The staff
continued to judge that the surge in demand that had resulted as the economy
reopened further had combined with production bottlenecks and supply
constraints to boost recent monthly inflation rates. The staff expected the
12-month change in PCE prices to move down gradually over the second part of
2021, reflecting an anticipated moderation in monthly inflation rates and the
waning of base effects; even so, PCE price inflation was projected to be
running well above 2 percent at the end of the year. Over the following year,
the boost to consumer prices caused by supply issues was expected to partly
reverse, and import prices were expected to decelerate sharply; as a result,
PCE price inflation was expected to step down to a little below 2 percent in
2022 before additional increases in resource utilization raised it to 2
percent in 2023.

但，馬司基表示:你不懂海運!
https://ctee.com.tw/news/industry/505223.html

p.10重點來了
The staff continued to judge that the risks to the baseline projection for
economic activity were skewed to the downside and that the uncertainty around
the forecast was elevated. In particular, the probability that the course of
the pandemic would turn out to be more adverse than the staff’s baseline
assumption was viewed tobe higher than the probability that a more favorable
outcome would occur.
In their discussion of current conditions, participants noted that, with
progress on vaccinations and strong policy support,[...]
Participants noted that the path of the economy would continue to depend on
the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations would likely continue to
reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy,
but risks to the economic outlook remained.[...]
Economic growth was expected to remain strong over the second half of the
year, supported by the further reopening of the economy, accommodative
financial conditions, and easing of supply constraints. Nevertheless,
participants generally saw supply disruptions and labor shortages as likely
to persist over the second half of the year.

所以完全復甦還得仰賴
1.恢復全球旅行
2.穩定的金融市場
3.不塞港了

但我們看到
1.紐西蘭鎖國
2.?
3.寧波封港

因此我認為時間表還得往後延
那就會是2022/03或2022Q3了

至於美國市場
In their discussion of the household sector, participants remarked that
consumer spending had continued to increase at a very rapid pace, supported
by the ongoing reopening of the economy along with the accommodation
provided by fiscal policy and monetary policy. In addition, the accumulated
stock of savings and further progress on vaccination were cited as important
factors lifting household spending.

我們都知道，支持美國經濟(和世界經濟)的
是美國人的消費力
由於疫情讓美國人不能出門shopping
存了很多錢，只要疫苗趕快打完
美國人就能夠出門報復性shopping

聽說拜登要打第三劑，嗯哼。

但你說疫情要過去了嗎?
With respect to the business sector, participants observed that activity in
the service industries most adversely affected by the pandemic, such as in
the leisure and hospitality sector, was rebounding as the economy reopened
further but had not fully recovered.

Corona-chan:Go s**k yourself! 凸皿凸

然後Fed指出新的危機：缺料和缺工

然後
Looking ahead, while participants generally expected inflation pressures to
ease as the effect of these transitory factors dissipated, several
participants remarked that larger-than-anticipated supply chain disruptions
and increases in input costs could sustain upward pressure on prices into
2022.

我也傾向這種看法
KMB表示欣喜

p.11再次重申
In discussing the uncertainty and risks associated with the economic outlook,
many participants remarked that uncertainty was quite high, with slowing in
progress on vaccinations and developments surrounding the Delta variant
posing downside risks to the economic outlook.

這就是我結論1的根據

接下來針對縮債的時間表
董事會又進行激烈的...意見交換
p.13
In their discussion of monetary policy for this meeting, members agreed that
with progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of
economic activity and employment had continued to strengthen.[...]
Inflation had risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial
conditions remained accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to
support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.
但是
In light of these developments, members decided to remove the
characterization of sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic as being
in a “weak” condition and to re-place it with the judgment that those
sectors “have not fully recovered.”

所以情況有變，但政策不變

同時
They also agreed to remove the word “significantly” when characterizing the
dependence of the path of the economy on the course of the virus. In
addition, members agreed to insert the assessment that “the economy has made
progress” toward the Commit-tee’s longer-run goals since the guidance on
asset pur-chases was first issued in December and to indicate that the
assessment of progress would continue in coming meetings.

============================================
以上報告

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 59.124.79.162 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1629441499.A.297.html
推 magicgreet  : 我認為這波殺有點假,比特 乙太表示
→ Benetnasch  : 文太長，基本上啦就像遛狗一樣繩子再怎麼拉，那個
→ Benetnasch  : 標的也不會馬上同步，不用走得太快，只要記得不要
→ Benetnasch  : 太晚才走
推 ck326       : 我覺得旅遊相關產業2022都回不來，不要說2022、2023
→ ck326       : 恐怕都還不行
推 g29050      : 專業推
→ lelu        : 2樓說到重點了,不要走太快,但也不要當最後一個
推 stocktonty  : 真正風險不在縮QE 是美國債務上限跟是否加稅
→ stocktonty  : 而且8月就業率也還沒出來 八字都還沒一撇
推 eddie04     : 好吧我看不懂
→ Benetnasch  : 風險來自泡沫啊，誰能評估
→ stocktonty  : 要大基建又不可能加大發債 就只剩加稅這條路了
推 b92337      : 認真文給推
→ Benetnasch  : 飆漲至今的股價能代表實際價格？
推 iamjojo     : 股版需要多一點這種文章 因為我寫不出來
→ stocktonty  : 熱錢來新興跟亞洲炒一炒總是要結帳回美國繳稅的
→ kkjjkkjj    : 嗯哼
→ Benetnasch  : 不過這篇直接帶FED的態度，能提供多空兩方再次衡
→ Benetnasch  : 量價格了
→ hihi29      : Delta跟疫苗看來就是比誰氣長 但我覺得delta目前佔
→ hihi29      : 上風...現在疫苗的副作用應該沒辦法讓你每年補一針
→ stocktonty  : 所以我說折折其實也沒說錯 DELTA這樣八月非農變數大
→ guardian93  : 10個經濟學家會有11種看法，專注當下趨勢就好
推 awhat       : 認真推
→ chouvincent : 美國9月boost vaccine確定開打
→ chouvincent : 到時還有點變數
→ Benetnasch  : 不過依台股來看，按照這幾天匯率的變動，還是外資
→ Benetnasch  : 的態度優先，外資繼續退水，台股要多也很難，畢竟
→ Benetnasch  : 都結匯掉了
→ Benetnasch  : Ptt有匯率版嗎？在想要存些美金了有人討論這個？
推 bfh         : 強者分析文，推
推 dichotomyptt: @Benernasch 有 ForeignEX
推 stlinman    : 推
推 rx1304      : 謝謝分享!
推 grtfor      : 推
推 realbout    : 推
推 caliph      : 感謝分析，但是重點其實就是前面樓上有提到的債務上
→ caliph      : 限和發債結構，全球寬鬆和低利環境數年內都很難改
→ caliph      : 變了
推 justin531xx : 推
推 aegis43210  : 只要SRF和FIMA額度夠，流動性問題就不用擔心
推 aegis43210  : 但信心問題比較重要
推 thefire2000 : 能不能問下找哪個關鍵字是介紹各種貨幣或金融工具的
推 iqqi4200    : 感謝尼~
→ thefire2000 : 想找相關學科的書來看 中英文皆可
Fed有教育網站
https://reurl.cc/pgl578
上方選單Resouces by Audience
可以用年齡層來選擇教材
不要覺得比小學生懂
很多觀念大學生學過就忘(包含我)
溫故知新很好的

工具本身的設計可以直接看官網
https://reurl.cc/O0Zj2r

但工具造成的影響，或相關討論
就要看外部資料，到圖書館借"貨幣銀行學"或"國際金融"就好
不要借舊的，至少要2019年以後出版的

推 hicjgogogo  : 謝謝
推 ru8bj6      : and then?各國股市持續重挫，就算你對了，也錯了
推 bbsbug      : 推 英文好好
推 ck4u04      : 專業推
推 k798976869  : 這泡泡大 來看破了之後要有多少人跳樓
→ lelu        : 但工具造成的影響,或相關討論,就要看外部資料
推 ptolemy     : 推  感謝分享
推 aegis43210  : 尤其在美股本益比高的背景下，風吹草動都會有大波動
※ 編輯: lelu (59.124.79.162 臺灣), 08/20/2021 15:48:44
推 roserule    : 希望這種文多一點，不然每天廢文滿版洗，被桶還要出
→ roserule    : 來幹板主，不如把時間精力用在真正有意義的資料研
→ roserule    : 讀與心得發表
推 vv1101vv    : 推
推 nthukos     : Push
推 tim96tim    : 我沒有想到美國對於變種病毒的反應會這麼劇烈...
推 yauger      : 推
推 herculus6502: 滿手現金沒得花，只好炒股囉
推 junhang     : 推總經分析
推 thefire2000 : 謝謝 來讀讀看能懂多少
推 renfro928   : 謝謝分享
推 MaxLJ       : 我覺得這篇跟上一篇打臉印表機的作者都論述都很明
推 ken6136     : 感謝
→ MaxLJ       : 確且流暢，讓人很明確的可以看到重點跟結論
→ MaxLJ       : 但那位印表機兄的文章就是完全看不出重點跟結論....
推 iamaq18c    : 推推!
推 KrisNYC     : 江山輩有人才出
推 androider   : 推一個  喜歡看這種文章
推 rhapsody1112: 優文推推
推 TommyWu1991 : 先推以免被說看不懂
推 CaTkinGG    : 推 可以拿來參考 好好思考自己接下來的策略
→ tsukimiyu   : 盡我所能認真看完了，但我還是不知道該空還是多...
推 aegis43210  : 大盤16000以下多，16800以上空
推 watertip    : 推推推
推 cindycincia : 資料打得很辛苦 推一個
推 tree3       : 推好聞認真 還有畫重點筆記!!
推 WESTONE     : 好文給推
→ tree3       : 推好文
推 lumiya      : 推好文
推 birdane32   : 雖然自己已經有方向了 但好文就是欠推
推 liangnash   : 美國很多人連第一劑都不想打…
推 lrac        : 推認真文
推 jlist       : 推
推 peanutman   : 推
推 japanmuta   : 推
推 gn00291010  :
推 calmative   : 好文推~