[新聞] 陽明鄭貞茂：供應鏈瓶頸將舒緩

[blow5566 (吹56)]

原文標題：Major Shipping Firm Sees Signs of Supply-Chain Bottlenecks Easing
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原文連結：https://bloom.bg/3khO5gz
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發布時間：2022年4月28日 GMT+8 上午6:00
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原文內容：
Port bottlenecks that have increased supply-chain congestion because of the wa
r in Ukraine and lockdowns in China may be showing signs of easing, according
to one of the world’s biggest shipping companies.

Currently, the number of ships waiting outside of the ports in Los Angeles and
 Long Beach have been reduced to less than 40, from more than 100 earlier this
 year, according to Cheng Cheng-mount, chairman of Taiwan-based Yang Ming Mari
ne Transport Corp. The waiting time for ships at Shanghai ports is two or thre
e days, compared with 10 to 14 days at the U.S. ports.

“I think this is a good sign that the port congestion has been easing” in th
e U.S., Cheng said in an interview Tuesday. “We foresee in the second half, e
verything will become smooth. All the difficulties will be easier.”

As for China’s strict lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities to battle Covid-
19 outbreaks, he sees the global impact as a “short-term phenomenon” that sh
ould be limited to second-quarter operations. He expects Beijing to adjust its
 Covid policy, and the nation’s economy to rebound in the second half of the
year.

Cheng’s view comes as supply chains have faced years of turmoil brought on by
 trade wars and the pandemic. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s lockd
owns threaten to escalate the disruptions, with many in the industry expecting
 the impact to ripple globally throughout the year.

Global Supply Chain Crisis Flares Up Again Where It All Began

While shipping operations are improving in Shanghai and factories are graduall
y restarting, containers are still piling up in ports because of a shortage of
 trucks. Once bunched-up cargo vessels start sailing again, logistics experts
warn of a flood of containers clogging U.S. and European ports.

Congestion in Shanghai ports has increased about 30% to 40% as of April 25 sin
ce the beginning of March, though it’s still lower than the peak during the t
hird quarter last year, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in an emailed repo
rt Thursday. With bottlenecks in northern Chinese ports, vessels are seeking a
lternatives, which will likely increase congestion in southern ports, the repo
rt said.

Global trade growth is projected to slow to 5% this year from an estimated 10.
1% in 2021, according to an International Monetary Fund report.

“I agree that the trade is going to slow down, and this is due to the war in
Ukraine, and also delayed demand from Covid,” Cheng said, adding that the glo
bal recovery is expected to “take a break” before resuming its growth moment
um. “We are rather optimistic.”

Cheng expects measures by the U.S. government to speed flows at ports -- such
as rules to immediately move empty containers -- will gradually kick in and ea
se the congestion in the second half. Once the logjams improve, he said, it wi
ll lead to lower freight rates.

Cheng, who was a former Citigroup Inc. chief economist, sees globalization evo
lving as trading patterns shift. Supply chains will become more regional and s
horter amid rising transportation costs. With tensions between the U.S. and Ch
ina continuing, supply chains will be split into two systems that each operate
 “inside a bubble” and navigate away from sanctions.

Yang Ming is the world’s ninth biggest container carrier in terms of fleet ca
pacity, according to Alphaliner’s data. Surging demand amid the pandemic and
supply chain crunch helped boost earnings of many shipping companies including
 Yang Ming to a record last year, and the strong growth momentum continued int
o the first quarter as freight rates soared.

The company’s sales for the first three months surged 71% from a year earlier
, to a record NT$106.7 billion ($3.6 billion). Yang Ming, however, has been ra
ted low in on-time reliability, coming in 13th among 14 major carriers in a Fe
bruary ranking, according to data by Sea-Intelligence.

“Our capacity is fully booked,” Cheng said, “My biggest concern now is how
to satisfy clients’ demands.”

A major uncertainty for next year is whether the market can digest the supply
of new ships built over the past few years amid an industry upcycle. Growth in
 supply in 2023 is expected to double from this year, outpacing rising demand,
 Cheng said, citing a forecast from Alphaliner.

“This is the reason we need to strengthen our financial structure,” Cheng sa
id, adding that the company is watching the issue carefully. “If there is ove
rsupply or decline of freight rates, we will be ready.”

— With assistance by Brendan Murray

(Updates with analyst note in seventh paragraph.)

心得/評論：

大意就是陽明認為隨中國解除封鎖  以及美國要求空櫃加速撤離 全球供應鏈瓶頸將緩解
H2將會明顯改善 運價下跌 塊陶啊



--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 223.137.191.204 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1651122807.A.C50.html
推 ohsexygirl  : 對很多產業是利多，終於不用缺料了
推 EddieJeremy : 貞的丸子
推 ZunYin      : 勿忘腰斬
推 facio124    : 沒fu糗 要崩了
→ luche       : 正義的聲明
推 laipyn      : 乾 太老實了吧
推 zxcv91039   : 崩崩
推 reil        : 貨暢其流大發財
推 iamten      : 崩到天昏地暗
推 tigerzz3    : 涼
→ faelone     : 沒FU糗  他跟閻羅王哪個懂海
推 tomdavis    : 來了 股價崩了 XD
推 jjl1019     : ==
※ 編輯: blow5566 (223.137.191.204 臺灣), 04/28/2022 13:21:04
推 gk1329      : 大爆崩 崩崩爽
推 cheng31507  : 崩
推 jayemshow   : 反著看
推 steel       : 貞的假的？
→ luche       : 突然想到3008老闆供A委
推 CCAP        : 反著看
→ moon1991    : 原價PS5買的到了嗎？
推 bruce20053  : 低調無腦空
推 victorrotciv: 大意是明年開始船隻供過於求，陽明不造船買大樓才是
→ victorrotciv: 建全的財務結構
推 ibetitisnot : 不懂海的是他吧
推 MinJun5566  : 丸子 這要幾根
噓 BlueBird5566: 運價跌也不可能一瞬間跌到疫情之前
推 kech9111    : 早就不塞了
→ homerunball : GG
→ ookimoo     : https://udn.com/news/story/6811/6272490
→ ookimoo     : 這篇裡面 鄭承認目前供應鏈斷鍊
噓 BlueBird5566: 而且他講的應該是塞港的問題，根本沒講到運價
→ StarS       : 馬士基都調升今年財測了
→ ookimoo     : 至於中國復工會隨著北京政策調整 那是他預估 猜的
※ 編輯: blow5566 (223.137.191.204 臺灣), 04/28/2022 13:29:54
→ ookimoo     : 這個早上就有了 不用再拿英文版來呼弄
推 mythwind    : 沒fu糗了
→ lolpklol0975: 航運股價 將紓緩？
噓 centaurjr   : 老闆又亂講話了....XD
推 yang57      : 丸子塊陶阿
推 acdawa      : 咕嚕咕嚕
→ ntuooo      : 出貨？
→ hebeisme5566:       塊陶阿  回到10塊
→ laechan     : 到時造越多船的倒楣?
→ renfro928   : MSC不懂健全財務結構啦，亂買船，訂單多到133萬TE
→ renfro928   : U，多跟陽明經濟學家學學，好嗎？
推 tony15899   : 丸子
噓 jdn325      : 這咖就海運外行 一點建樹也沒有
推 qqpbpp      : 希望是真的，供應鏈緩解，通膨也會緩解一部分
推 f204137     : 馬士基也這樣說
推 fdkevin     : 丸子
推 CCAP        : 如果供過於求{或}運費下滑，我們會做好準備。
推 rblovetw    : 這個垃圾可以滾嗎？陽明之恥
推 shumann1810 : 準備崩落
→ ookimoo     : 鄭最好是懂中國政治了 對中國來說 美國一櫃越貴
→ ookimoo     : 中國比美國經濟好的目標就更近一分
推 az0102      : 這是好事啦，對世界而言
噓 zalasas39   : 難怪借卷增加，空暴
噓 MaxLJ       : 他根本什麼都不種，航運體質已改變未來每季EPS都15
→ chewthelife8: 看起來有人很抖
→ icekiba     : 對很多產業是利空吧 不能用缺料調漲了
推 m13579      : 別怪他了 他的任務本來就是改善陽明財務結構 保守
→ m13579      : 一點也還好啦 官股就這樣 明年之後股利可以多配一
→ m13579      : 點就好
推 FCSHSKY     : 這明明是利多 ㄧ堆人是反串還是真的不懂….
推 clean123    : 馬士基調升財測欸
→ simo520     : 快喔，晶片代工也一起崩
噓 HCLP        : 明天跌停鎖住
推 iamten      : 空到下市
推 danny2451   : 運價講了一年 到底啥時要腰斬
→ Messi100    : 又一根
推 RanceTsai   : 要回9塊了嗎
推 NEX4036     : 沉船了995
→ oDOM        : 供應鏈是指大陸製造商還是還是海運供給？
噓 news0717    : 今年隨便買海運 都比買電子好
推 Mbappe10    : 東西就那麼多要運 解封 大家上工 船就那麼多
→ Mbappe10    : 運價會跌？  搞不好還要搶櫃好嗎
推 zebirlin    : 通膨降 升息就緩 物價低 大家才會買更多 懂?
推 sackingsss  : 赫伯跟馬士基 剛開盤又大漲囉
推 event8114   : 然後股價就回去了是吧 我知道了
推 Firsss      : 0
噓 zalasas39   : 買外國船就好，台灣垃圾船
→ jeremy1114  : 真的緩解 幹嘛還要加錢？
→ ILike58     : 就是沒貨出才舒緩的吧，他看的是船港方面的運作，等
→ ILike58     : 到逐漸復工不就又要開始塞了，不然歐美庫存一直少，
→ ILike58     : 有可能不進貨嗎？
推 elaymutter  : 我已經決定它崩跌到80再買一張了
→ f5120461    : 保羅是你嗎