[新聞] 埃隆馬斯克預測溫和的 18 個月經濟衰退

[dhvaja (終於懂了)]

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原文標題：

Elon Musk predicts mild 18-month recession, teases possible share buybacks

原文連結：
https://reurl.cc/NRrvn5

發布時間：2022/8/4

記者署名：Lora Kolodny

原文內容：

At the Tesla 2022 shareholders’ meeting on Thursday, investors asked CEO
Elon Musk how the company plans to spend its money in coming years, and about
his global economic outlook.

Musk joked that “making macroeconomic prognostications is a recipe for
disaster” but nonetheless estimated that “we are past peak inflation” and
likely to see a “relatively mild recession,” lasting for about 18 months.


馬斯克開玩笑說“做出宏觀經濟預測是災難的根源”，但仍然估計“我們已經過了通脹峰
值”，可能會看到“相對溫和的衰退”，持續約 18 個月。

The CEO based his economic analysis on the commodity prices Tesla is being
asked to pay for materials and goods it needs to make electric vehicles.

“We do get a fair bit of insight into where prices of things are going over
time because when you’re making millions of cars, you have to purchase
commodities many months in advance of when they’re needed,” he said.

In the second quarter of 2022, Russia’s war on Ukraine and the ongoing Covid
pandemic in China hampered Tesla’s Shanghai factory, and worsened supply
chain snarls, parts shortages and labor problems throughout the auto industry.

Musk was also asked how Tesla plans to use its capital in coming years. The
CEO said Tesla will primarily increase its capital expenditures and research
and development spending “as fast as we can do so without wasting it.” He
added that “a sort of share buyback is possible,” depending on what Tesla’
s future cash flow looks like.

Musk, who is also the CEO of SpaceX, said he “wouldn’t want to commit” to
Tesla share buybacks just yet, and that a force majeure event somewhere could
change the equation. However, he reiterated that if Tesla’s future cashflow
is looking solid, and the world is “relatively stable,” then a “share
buyback is on the table.”

Overall, Tesla aims to produce 20 million vehicles annually by 2030, a lofty
goal, and Musk said he thinks this will take approximately a dozen factories,
with each factory producing 1.5 million to 2 million units per year.

Currently Tesla operates vehicle assembly plants in Shanghai; Fremont,
California; Austin, Texas; and outside of Berlin in Germany. It also produces
batteries at a factory in Sparks, Nevada, that it jointly operates with
Panasonic.

Tesla recently produced its 3 millionth car, Musk said on Thursday, and is
hoping to announce a new factory location later this year.

At the same time, the company is recycling only 50 vehicle battery packs per
week in Nevada, Musk revealed Thursday, explaining that the number is so low
because most battery packs from Tesla cars are still in vehicles in use today.

心得/評論：

馬斯克今年1月1日就提到2022年春天會進入衰退，這次也說通膨頂峰已過，檯面
上的總經大師都不如他...


※必需填寫滿30字，無意義者板規處分

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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1659667122.A.53E.html
→ mit2502     : 摩爾定律?
噓 jjjjjjs     : 世界首富 實戰經驗
推 EddieJeremy : 哥登黃藍燈
→ fallinlove15: 跑步進入衰退
→ TomChu      : 他從生產供應鍊去看的吧 應該比線仙準
→ jameshcm    : 好窩，凌遲一年半，美國人這次要好好痛改前非
→ LoveNPeace  : 要被市場給上課嚕
推 maxboy06    : 炒股專家
推 xboxandone  : 馬一龍 帶你騷兩圈
噓 ck326       : 18個月還很久耶，這樣講還有一年，馬投顧確定ㄇ?
→ tomdavis    : 義龍馬~~~~~~ 騷兩圈~~~
推 watameki    : 愛榭克慢牛
推 ketter      : 衰退的時候股市就是漲啊 因為衰退完就要復甦了
→ jinhouse123 : 有國安在，賣家產滿倉幹入。。。。。
噓 sherrysj    : 垃圾炒幣仔
推 bear2008    : 現在來看 馬投顧挺準的嘛
→ b9513227    : 馬曹操
推 sc2x2       : 跟馬投顧就對了啦
推 in771028zzz : 伊龍罵
推 capssan     : 他2020年說特斯拉股價太高怎麼沒人轟他不準 = =
推 shinyi444   : 老美講18就是在唬爛，一兩年內如果有變化還有台階下
推 okbon       : 馬頭顧以後還要兼總經大師？
→ sussj       : 馬投顧的話不是要反著看
推 mioco       : 總經大師馬斯克！
推 summer08818 : 他現在比較像屁話王吧 自己炒股炒幣都那德行了
推 saga326     : 馬投顧炒幣吃筍確定要相信？
→ kevinmeng2  : 他跟老謝？我寧可信他！他幫我資產翻倍，老謝只坑
噓 la8day      : 詐騙車 下去
推 egg87346    : 坦白講馬斯克人真的很好 賣股會先講 要崩盤也會提醒
→ egg87346    : 轉頭做多也都告訴你惹  到底還要怎樣
→ egg87346    : 7/15那篇意思就很明顯了  沒看懂真的別怪人
推 lolpklol0975: 先嘎空 再殺追高仔 一個月前開示在前
推 Brioni      : 衰退股市一定會跌？？
推 windersword : 所以18個月是從何時開始算？可以分批慢慢建倉了
推 cage820518  : 認真地說，他的看法是可以認真參考的
推 SunRoy      : 馬斯克就真的很準啊 酸酸崩潰膩
推 jonaswang01 : 消費性衰退要消化很一陣子吧
推 gladopo     : 馬老闆這波蠻準
推 icelaw      : 哼哼 萬五達陣 本月準備衝萬六
推 sonota      : 真的厲害
推 abdiascat   : 龍頭公司老闆 每天看工廠變化
→ kevinmeng2  : 不是，冰律看我特算台股？
推 WorkForFree : 總經大師馬詩客
推 fortesv     : 信他得綠帽，乖，帽子戴好
推 roserule    : 阿。整篇 怎麼只翻一半？ 這樣發文也行？
推 UCCUplz     : 馬投顧能力好 不需預測直接畫線
推 energy100203: 不愧是翼龍馬投顧
推 icelaw      : 應該是從今年一月開始算 18個月 大概到明年中
→ icelaw      : 18個月是他的說法 至於會多久你可以自行考量
推 bobjohns    : 他去年11月就說今年春季衰退 最晚不超過夏天，事後
→ bobjohns    : 看跟本 準成馬了
→ richaad     : 他在產業第一線，對於景氣當然比嘴砲總經大濕敏感多
→ richaad     : 了
推 RamirezX    : 馬斯克確實準 宏觀視野絕對贏一堆總經大師
推 LaiPresident: 馬克宏真的準，不要不信他