[情報] HLAG CEO：我非常確定我們看到過度反應

[rayisgreat (在過往中無盡徘徊)]

Did US slash imports too much, setting stage for shipping rebound?

Greg Miller  October 24, 2022

Hapag-Lloyd CEO：'I'm pretty sure what we're seeing is an overreaction－again'

Hapag-Lloyd CEO：我很確定我們所看到的是反應過度－再一次的

https://reurl.cc/nOQK8l

The U.S. supply chain is in the throes of a so-called “bullwhip effect.”
Importers overreacted to last year’s congestion and heightened consumer
demand, brought in too much cargo too early, and are now stuck with excess
inventory. Could there be a bullwhip effect in the opposite direction next
year?

美國的供應鏈正處於所謂的 "牛鞭效應 "的陣痛之中

進口商對去年的擁堵和消費者需求的增加反應過度

過早地進口了太多的貨物，現在又被過剩的庫存所困

明年會不會出現反方向的牛鞭效應呢？

It could happen, says Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of ocean carrier Hapag-Lloyd. He
 addressed this scenario — as well as his views on future rates, capacity
levels and trade patterns — during an online panel discussion Monday.

海運公司 Hapag-Lloyd 的 CEO (Rolf Habben Jansen) 表示，這可能會發生

他在周一的線上小組討論中談到了這種情況—

以及他對未來費率、產能水平和貿易模式的看法

“There is still a lot of volatility in the market, and everybody seems to be
doing the same thing, which is quite scary,” said Habben Jansen.

Habben Jansen 表示：市場上仍然有很多波動

而且每個人似乎都在做同樣的事情，這相當可怕

“Everybody is overreacting all the time. At the start of COVID, we lost 20%
of our volume in two weeks because everybody started cutting their orders.
Then the economy recovered and everybody started ordering like crazy.

每個人都在不斷地過度反應。在 COVID 開始時，我們在兩週內損失了 20% 的銷量

因為每個人都開始削減他們的訂單。然後經濟復甦，大家又開始瘋狂訂貨

“This year we saw lots of people ordering Christmas stuff [for early arrival]
 in the summer. So, a lot of volume was brought forward. Now we see congestion
 easing, inventories filling up and warehouses filling up and everybody is
cutting orders like crazy. We’ve gone to the other extreme.

今年，我們看到很多人在夏天訂購聖誕節的東西 (以便提前到達)

因此，大量的貨物被提前

而現在，我們看到擁擠情況有所緩解，庫存充斥且倉庫填滿

每個人都在瘋狂地削減訂單。我們已經走到了另一個極端

“I’m just waiting for the next step,” he said. “Because I’m pretty sure
what we’re seeing right now is an overreaction — again. People trying to cut
 everything possible at this stage will see that underlying consumer demand is
 actually relatively healthy and all of a sudden, they’ll become concerned
that their inventories are a bit on the low end and we’ll possibly see a
bounce-back.”

我只是在等待下一步的發展，他說

因為我很確定我們現在看到的是一種過度反應－再一次的

在這個階段試圖削減一切可能的人

將看到潛在的消費者需求實際上是相對健康的

突然間，他們會擔心他們的庫存有點偏低，我們可能會看到反彈

Post-COVID rates should top pre-COVID rates

後 COVID 運價應高於前 COVID 運價

Bringing forward Christmas cargoes to the summer left a hole in demand this
fall. Spot-rate indexes continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace recently
as ocean carriers remove more capacity to balance the market.

聖誕節的貨物提前到夏季，給今年秋季的需求留下了缺口

現貨價格指數繼續下降，儘管最近下降的速度有所減緩

因為海運公司為平衡市場而取消了更多的運力

Habben Jansen, whose company is the world’s fifth largest ocean carrier
measured by fleet size, continues to believe that post-COVID rates will
ultimately end up higher than pre-COVID rates.

Habben Jansen 的公司依船隊規模計算的世界第五大海運公司

他仍然認為，COVID 後的費率最終將高於COVID前的費率

“In the short term, anything is possible,” he said. “I think we will see
rates above pre-COVID, at that level, and below that level for stretches of
weeks or days. What’s more important is to look a little bit longer term.

他說：在短期內，一切皆有可能

我認為我們會看到費率高於 COVID 前的水平

在這個水平上，也會有幾週或幾天的時間低於這個水平

更重要的是要看得更長遠一點。

“And in the end, whether we like it or not, costs have gone up quite
significantly over the last couple of years. Time-charter rates have gone up
and been committed to for longer periods. Terminal costs have gone up. Bunker
[fuel] costs have gone up. That results in a higher unit cost for the industry
, on average.

最後，不管我們喜歡與否，在過去的幾年裡，成本已經大幅上升

定期租船費用已經上升，且承諾的時間更長

碼頭成本已經上升了。燃油成本也上升了

這導致該行業的平均單位成本上升

“What we’ve seen in the last 10 years [prior to the COVID boom] is that
rates tend to hover somewhat above the cost level,” he continued. Because the
 future cost level will be higher than the pre-COVID level, Habben Jansen
believes that carrier rates in the long term “are going to be significantly
above pre-pandemic levels.”

他繼續說：我們在過去 10 年（在 COVID 盛行之前）所看到的是

運價往往在成本水平之上徘徊

由於未來的成本水平將高於 COVID 之前的水平

Habben Jansen 認為，從長遠來看，承運人的費率將大大高於大流行前的水平

Hapag-Lloyd CEO sees newbuilds as a positive

赫伯羅特首席執行官認為新造船是一個積極因素

This assumes shipping lines don’t descend into a price war when a massive
wave of newbuildings hits the water starting next year.

假設航運公司在明年開始的大規模新造船潮中不會陷入價格戰

Habben Jansen did not sound particularly worried about all the new ships. “Of
 course, the orderbook right now is certainly a bit on the high side,” he
said. “But on the other hand, in the years before 2020, we were
underinvesting in this industry and the orderbook was actually too small.

Habben Jansen 聽起來並不特別擔心所有的新船

當然，現在的訂單量肯定有點偏高，他表示

但另一方面，在 2020 年之前的幾年裡

我們對這個行業的投資不足，訂單量實際上太少

“We’ll see how this pans out. I think scrapping [demolition of older ships]
will have to go up very significantly. We’ll also need to see whether
everything can be produced and delivered on time. We’re hearing the first
report of delays at some of the yards.”

我們將看到這個結果如何。

我認為報廢(拆毀舊船)將不得不大幅增加

我們還需要看看是否一切都能按時生產和交付

我們收到了一些船廠延誤的第一份報告

He continued, “We’re not going to have the tightness in capacity we had in
the last two years and having a little bit of a buffer is a good thing.

他繼續說：我們不會有過去兩年那樣產能緊張，有一點緩衝是件好事

“What we saw in 2020 when demand came back with a vengeance was that there
was no slack in the system whatsoever. That’s why you had a lot of these
bottlenecks. As an industry, if we had slack in the system of 3%, 4%, 5%, that
 would allow us to swiftly react if there were a peak and prevent some of the
things we saw in the last couple of years. It would give us the resilience we
need and help us reestablish the trust of our customers.”

我們在 2020 年看到的，當需求報復性地回來時

行業系統中沒有任何的鬆弛

這就是為什麼你有很多這樣的瓶頸

作為一個行業，如果我們的系統有 3%、4%、5% 的鬆弛

這將使我們能夠在出現高峰時迅速作出反應

並防止我們在過去幾年中看到的一些情況。

這將給予我們所需的彈性並幫助我們重新建立客戶的信任

Geopolitics and the China factor

地緣政治和中國因素

The Hapag-Lloyd panel discussion occurred at a particularly fraught time for
world trade and geopolitics. As the Ukraine-Russia war rages on, relations
between China and the U.S. continue to deteriorate. Companies are
reconsidering their import supply chains and their exposure to China.

赫伯羅特的小組討論發生在世界貿易和地緣政治特別混亂的時候

隨著烏克蘭-俄羅斯戰爭的持續，中國和美國之間的關係繼續惡化

公司正在重新考慮他們的進口供應鍊和他們對中國的風險

Asked about the implications, Habben Jansen said: “Sourcing patterns will
change. People will do less single-sourcing. We see quite a lot of people
already going from China [only] to China-plus-one [alternate source] and China
-plus-two. Moving stuff to Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Turkey, Egypt and those
types of markets.”

在被問及相關影響時

Habben Jansen 說：採購模式將發生變化。

人們將減少單一的採購，我們看到很多人已經從中國(唯一)

轉向中國加一(替代來源)和中國加二

把東西轉移到越南、印尼、印度、土耳其、埃及和這些類型的市場

The end of pandemic travel restrictions helps businesses diversify import
sourcing, he said. “In 2021, you couldn’t travel to see your new sourcing
partner or your new manufacturing plant. There’s a hesitancy to take that
decision based on a [Microsoft] Teams meeting alone.

他說，大流行病旅行限制的結束有助於企業實現進口來源的多樣化

在 2021 年，你不能去看你的新採購夥伴或你的新製造工廠

僅能根據一個(微軟)團隊會議就做出這樣的決定

人們會感到猶豫不決

“We are going to see more diversification and nearshoring,” he predicted.
But he also emphasized that this will not happen overnight.

他預測說：我們將看到更多的多樣化和近岸化

但他也強調，這不會在一夜之間發生

“There is a reason that most of the biggest ports are in China, and I don’t
think that’s going to change anytime soon. These changes in the setups of
supply chains go slowly. It can take a lot of time before you can really make
it happen. There were people talking about de-risking from China 10 years ago.
”

大多數最大的港口在中國是有原因的

我認為這不會很快改變，供應鏈設置的這些變化是緩慢的

在你能真正實現它之前，可能需要很多時間

10 年前就有人在談論從中國去掉風險的問題

-----

Hapag-Lloyd 在今年五月時有說榮景已經觸頂

表示下半年的現貨運價將驟減

結果八月開始運價果然一路崩到脫褲

稍早晃到昨天 Hapag-Lloyd 的 CEO

表示他對未來的看法的這篇文章（10/24）

不曉得明年的結果是否會如他所預期勒？

是說發完這篇順便看了下今天國外船船

好像又崩崩惹(X

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 101.10.0.17 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1666695027.A.7EF.html
※ 編輯: rayisgreat (101.10.0.17 臺灣), 10/25/2022 19:01:46
→ icedog122   : 航運沒救了
推 cuteSquirrel: too late
推 golang      : 穩了
推 sophieo     : 笑死，有保羅懂海運嗎
→ ookimoo     : 要反彈了拉
推 raslin      : 費率上升 成本上升 那還有賺嗎 咕嚕咕嚕
推 faye112358  : 講的還算人話 比只會吟詩的好多了
→ Zzell       : 因為一堆機構從貨運量和財報就在喊衰退
推 tomdavis    : 交船延誤 + 長鞭再次甩向另一邊!
→ Zzell       : 一堆公司看到也緊張不敢下單備貨（加上庫存偏高）
→ cyshowen    : 牛鞭效應: 是指投資人都被牛鞭統後門了吧
推 slippers    : 說好的慢牛勒
推 Obama       : 你們都沒看到重點  未來運價還是會高於疫情前
→ Obama       : 說好的萬海虧損呢
推 Thompson13  : 鄉民都在等那個男人
→ iio         : 現在股價也高於疫情前阿
推 square      : 準備上船！
→ ILike58     : Habben Jansen：需求就像牛鞭一樣，有時硬頂有時軟
→ ILike58     : 趴，運費也是，懂得就懂。
推 overpolo    : 你拿繩子甩一下就知道甚麼是牛鞭效益
→ ILike58     : 雖然國外崩崩，我是樂觀到了麻木XD，將來的營運成本
→ ILike58     : 上升加上供應鏈轉換，現在就是利用航班的調整來保護
→ ILike58     : 將來該有的利益，基本上發展大家都猜得到，只是如嗨
→ ILike58     : 啪羅德說的，這過程是漫長的，好在西台灣這幾天釋出
→ ILike58     : 利多加速這個過程XD。
推 zephyr105   : 乾 通膨過後會不會就通縮了 乾
推 Petrovsky   : 牛鞭太猛了
噓 imlucky     : 外國船和台灣玩法不一樣啊
→ imlucky     : 赫伯拉好長一波了 該出貨了