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原文標題：
Fed minutes show members resolved to keep fighting inflation
原文連結：
https://cnb.cx/3ILSXre
發布時間：
PUBLISHED WED, FEB 22 20232:01 PM ES
記者署名：
Jeff Cox
原文內容：
-While the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting concluded with a smaller rate hike than most
of those implemented since early 2022, officials stressed that their concern
over inflation is high.
-Inflation “remained well above” the Fed’s 2% target, the minutes stated.
That came with labor markets that “remained very tight, contributing to
continuing upward pressures on wages and prices.”
Federal Reserve officials at their most recent meeting indicated that there
are signs inflation is coming down, but not enough to counter the need for
more interest rate increases, meeting minutes released Wednesday showed.
While the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting concluded with a smaller rate hike than most
of those implemented since early 2022, officials stressed that their concern
over inflation is high.
Inflation “remained well above” the Fed’s 2% target, the minutes stated.
That came with labor markets that “remained very tight, contributing to
continuing upward pressures on wages and prices.“
Consequently, the Fed approved a 0.25 percentage point rate increase that was
the smallest hike since the first March 2022, taking the fed funds rate to a
target range of 4.5%-4.75%. But the minutes stated that the reduced pace came
with a high level of concern that inflation was still a threat.
“Participants noted that inflation data received over the past three months
showed a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases but
stressed that substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range
of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was on a sustained
downward path,” the minutes said.
The summary repeated that members believe “ongoing” rate hikes will be
necessary. Though the quarter-point hike received unanimous approval, the
minutes noted that not everyone was on board.
A “few” members said they wanted a half-point, or 50 basis points, hike
that would show even greater resolve to get inflation down.
Since the meeting, regional presidents James Bullard of St. Louis and Loretta
Mester of Cleveland have said they were among the group that wanted the more
aggressive move. The minutes, however did not elaborate on how many a “few”
were nor which Federal Open Market Committee members wanted the half-point
increase.
“The participants favoring a 50-basis point increase noted that a larger
increase would more quickly bring the target range close to the levels they
believed would achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, taking into account
their views of the risks to achieving price stability in a timely way,” the
minutes said.
Since the meeting, Fed officials have emphasized the need to stay vigilant
even while expressing optimism that recent inflation data has been
encouraging.
In a CNBC interview Wednesday, Bullard repeated his belief that going higher
sooner would be more effective. But even with his push for more aggressive
near-term policy, he said he thinks the peak, or terminal, rate should be
around 5.375%, about in line with market pricing.
Economic data from January show inflation running at a lower pace than its
summer 2022 peak but is still percolating.
The consumer price index rose 0.5% from December and is up 6.4% from the same
point last year. The producer price index, which measures input costs at the
wholesale level, rose 0.7% on the month and 6% annually. Both readings were
above Wall Street expectations.
The labor market also is hot, indicating that Fed hikes, while hitting the
housing market and some other rate-sensitive areas, have yet to seep through
to much of the economy.
Even with the comments from Mester and Bullard, market pricing still
indicates the strong likelihood of another quarter-point increase in March,
followed by a couple more to bring the funds rate to a peak of 5.25%-5.5%. If
the rate would land around the midpoint of that target, it would be the
highest funds rate since 2001.
Markets are concerned that if the Fed moves too quickly or too far, it could
tip the economy into a recession.
The minutes noted that “some” members see the risk of recession as “
elevated.” Other officials publicly have said they think the Fed can avoid a
recession and achieve a “soft landing” for the economy that sees growth
slowing considerably but not contracting.
“Participants observed that the uncertainty associated with their outlooks
for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation was high,” the
minutes said.
Among the risk factors cited were the war in Ukraine, the economic reopening
in China and the possibility that the labor market could remain tighter for
longer than expected.
--- 瀏覽器翻譯 ---
週三公佈的會議紀要顯示，美聯儲官員在最近的會議上表示，有跡象表明通脹正在下降，
但不足以應對進一步加息的必要性。
雖然 1 月 31 日至 2 月 1 日的會議結束時,加息幅度小於自 2022 年初以來實施的
大多數加息幅度，但官員們強調，他們對通脹的擔憂很高。
會議紀要稱，通脹“仍遠高於”美聯儲2%的目標。隨之而來的是勞動力市場“仍然非常緊
張，導致工資和物價持續上漲壓力”。
因此，美聯儲批准加息 0.25 個百分點，這是自 2022 年 3 月 1 日以來的最小加息幅度
，將聯邦基金利率提高到 4.5%-4.75% 的目標區間。但會議紀要指出，放緩的步伐伴隨著
對通脹仍然構成威脅的高度擔憂。
會議紀要稱：「出席者指出，過去三個月收到的通脹數據顯示，月度價格上漲速度有所下
降，但強調需要更多證據證明在更廣泛的價格範圍內取得進展，才能確信通脹處於持續下
降的道路上。
摘要重申，成員們認為“持續”加息是必要的。儘管加息四分之一點得到了一致批准，但
會議紀要指出，並非所有人都同意。
“少數”成員表示，他們希望加息半個基點或50個基點，這將顯示出降低通脹的更大決心
。
自會議以來，聖路易斯的地區總裁詹姆斯布拉德和克利夫蘭的洛雷塔梅斯特表示，他們是
希望採取更積極舉措的團體之一。然而，會議紀要沒有詳細說明「少數」有多少人，也沒
有詳細說明哪些聯邦公開市場委員會成員希望增加半個百分點。
會議紀要稱：「贊成加息50個基點的出席者指出，更大的加息將更快地使目標區間接近他
們認為可以實現足夠限制立場的水準，同時考慮到他們對及時實現價格穩定的風險的看法
。
自會議以來，美聯儲官員強調需要保持警惕，即使對最近的通脹數據令人鼓舞表示樂觀。
在週三接受CNBC採訪時，布拉德重申了他的信念，即越早走越高會更有效。但他表示，即
使他推動了更激進的近期政策，他認為峰值或終端利率應該在5.375%左右，與市場定價大
致一致。
1 月份的經濟數據顯示，通脹速度低於 2022 年夏季的峰值，但仍在滲透。
消費者物價指數比12月上漲0.5%，同比上漲6.4%。衡量批發層面投入成本的生產者價格指
數環比上漲0.7%，同比上漲6%。這兩個讀數都高於華爾街的預期。
勞動力市場也很火熱，這表明美聯儲的加息雖然打擊了房地產市場和其他一些對利率敏感
的領域，但尚未滲透到經濟的大部分地區。
即使有梅斯特和布拉德的評論，市場定價仍然表明，3月份再次上漲四分之一點的可能性
很大，隨後又有幾次將基金利率帶到5.25%-5.5%的峰值。如果利率落在該目標的中點左右
，這將是自2001年以來的最高基金利率。
市場擔心，如果美聯儲行動太快或走得太遠，可能會使經濟陷入衰退。
會議紀要指出，「一些」成員認為經濟衰退的風險“升高”。其他官員公開表示，他們認
為美聯儲可以避免經濟衰退，並實現經濟增長大幅放緩但不收縮的經濟“軟著陸”。
“與會者觀察到，與他們對經濟活動，勞動力市場和通貨膨脹前景相關的不確定性很高，
”會議紀要說。
心得/評論：
其實就只是重申政策,然後有少數人喊50點.
另外就是通膨的控制,從原本的爆打式升息,變成精雕細琢的方式來控制.
所以可以預想的未來,大概就看數據說話,通膨高一點就升個半碼嚇嚇他,
然後降息過程大概也是愛降不降,FOMC可能會重回答錄機時代.
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