[新聞]聯準會維持利率不變 3名官員主張升息一碼

[asahi98 (あさひ)]

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Fed leaves rates unchanged; three policymakers dissent in favor of a hike
聯準會維持利率不變 3名官員主張升息一碼

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July 29, 20266:04 PM GMT+8Updated 5 mins ago
2026年7月29日下午6:04 GMT+8 5分鐘前更新

記者署名：

路透社新聞
By Ann Saphir and Michael S. Derby

原文內容：

Summary
US central bank leaves policy rate in 3.50%-3.75% range
Three Fed bank presidents wanted a quarter-percentage-point hike
Markets had priced about a one-in-three chance of a rate increase

WASHINGTON, July 29 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve held interest rates
steady on Wednesday, a choice that may intensify questions about how U.S. central bank chief Kevin Warsh will deliver on his commitment to bring
inflation back down to the 2% target.
The widely expected decision to leave he benchmark interest rate in the
3.50%-3.75% range drew dissents from three of the 12 members of the
policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee who "preferred" a
quarter-percentage-point hike at this meeting. Those same three, the
presidents of the Fed's Cleveland, Dallas and Minneapolis regional banks, had
also dissented at Jerome Powell's final meeting as central bank chief in late
April, that time in favor of removing the implied promise of lower ates.

Warsh, who took over as head of the Fed in May, has said he has "no
tolerance" for inflation that has been running above the central bank's
target or more than five years, and up until last month was accelerating
as the war in the Middle East pushed up global uel and food prices, and
investment in data centers and other spending tied to artificial intelligence
drove up demand."Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2% goal," the Fed said in a short policy statement after the end of its latest two-day meeting.
It replicated word for word all of the June 17 statement's assessment of the
economy.

The Fed said conomic activity is "expanding at a solid pace," noting, as
it did in June, that job gains "have kept pace with the workforce, and the
unemployment rate has changed little."
Warsh said in a press conference following the FOMC announcement that "we've
begun a new chapter and we understand that the five-plus years of inflation
above target cannot be cured in nine weeks, or by a single month of modest
price decreases. This ed will not waver" on getting inflation back to the
2% target.

While he declined to say what's next for monetary policy, Warsh said "I want
to stress, of course, that ecisions by this committee matter a great deal,
and where necessary and appropriate, we will not hesitate to act."

U.S. stocks pared losses after the release of the statement while yields on
U.S. Treasuries ared gains. The ollar fell against a basket of
currencies.
"At this stage, I think we should expect the FOMC to hike rates by 25 basis
points in September unless the labor market data collapses, or core inflation
prints closer to 2% annualized, which I do not expect in the July or August
readings before the September FOMC," said Omair Sharif, founder and president
of forecasting firm Inflation Insights.
The number of officials voting in favor of tighter policy suggests a change
in Fed thinking, even though some analysts think the central bank can still
hold ff on hikes.
“The high number of dissents underscore hat policymakers are increasingly
more hawkish,” aid Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, in a
note. But she nevertheless thinks that “the Fed can and should remain on
hold this year since higher interest rates will not solve the energy supply
shock from the Middle East nor slow AI capex that is driving p prices.”
In leaving the policy rate pinned in the range it has been since December,
Fed policymakers are embracing the idea that urrent borrowing costs are creating enough friction in the economy to reduce any inflation that isn't,
like the effect of tariffs on goods prices, expected to fade on its own.
Warsh has said little about the mix of risks and nothing about the outlook
for the policy rate, though he has expressed the expectation that rising
productivity aided by AI will allow the economy to grow faster without also pushing up nflation.
Financial markets ahead of this week's meeting had priced in about a
one-in-three chance of a rate hike nd, absent such a move at this week's
meeting, nearly a 100% chance of an increase in September. By then, Fed
policymakers will have in hand two more monthly readings on inflation and the
jobs market, giving hem a better picture of whether the cooling price
pressures evident last month have continued.
Reporting by Ann Saphir; Additional reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by
Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci

摘要

美國央行將政策利率維持在3.50%至3.75%的區間

三位聯準銀行總裁主張升息0.25個百分點

市場原先已反映約三分之一的升息機率

華盛頓，7月29日（路透社）——美國聯準會週三維持利率不變，這項決定可能會加深外
界的疑問：美國央行主席凱文·華許將如何履行承諾，把通膨重新壓回2%的目標。

這項普遍符合預期的決定，讓基準利率維持在3.50%至3.75%的區間，但在負責制定政策的
聯邦公開市場委員會12名成員中，有三人投下反對票，表示他們在本次會議中「傾向」升
息0.25個百分點。

這三人分別是克里夫蘭、達拉斯與明尼亞波利斯地區聯準銀行的總裁。他們在4月底傑洛
姆·鮑爾以央行主席身分主持的最後一次會議中，也曾投下反對票；當時他們主張刪除聲
明中隱含未來將降息的承諾。

華許於5月接任聯準會主席。他曾表示，對於通膨沒有任何「容忍空間」。通膨已經連續
五年多高於央行目標，而且直到上個月都還在加速上升，原因包括中東戰爭推高全球燃料
與食品價格，以及資料中心投資和其他與人工智慧相關的支出帶動需求上升。

聯準會在結束最新一場為期兩天的會議後，於一份簡短的政策聲明中表示：

「相較於委員會2%的目標，通膨仍然偏高。」

這份聲明對經濟情勢的評估，逐字沿用了6月17日聲明的全部內容。

聯準會表示，經濟活動正「以穩健的速度擴張」。聲明也和6月時一樣指出，就業增加「
與勞動力成長速度保持一致，失業率則變化不大」。

華許在FOMC公布決議後舉行的記者會上表示：

「我們已經開啟了一個新的篇章。我們明白，超過五年的通膨高於目標，不可能在九週內
治癒，也不可能靠單一月份的物價溫和下降就解決。這一屆聯準會不會動搖」，將堅持讓
通膨回到2%的目標。

雖然華許拒絕說明貨幣政策下一步將如何調整，但他表示：

「我當然要強調，本委員會所作出的決定影響非常重大；在必要且適當的情況下，我們將
毫不猶豫地採取行動。」

聲明發布後，美國股市收斂跌幅，美國公債殖利率也收斂漲幅。美元兌一籃子貨幣下跌。

預測機構Inflation Insights創辦人兼總裁Omair Sharif表示：

「現階段，我認為除非勞動市場數據崩跌，或者核心通膨數據降至接近年化2%的水準，否
則我們應該預期FOMC會在9月升息25個基點。我不認為在9月FOMC會議前公布的7月或8月數
據中，會出現這兩種情況。」

支持緊縮政策的官員人數，顯示聯準會內部的想法可能正在改變，儘管部分分析師仍認為
，央行可以繼續暫緩升息。

Nationwide首席經濟學家Kathy Bostjancic在一份報告中表示：

「大量的反對票凸顯出，政策制定官員正變得愈來愈鷹派。」

不過，她仍認為：

「聯準會今年可以、也應該繼續維持利率不變，因為更高的利率無法解決來自中東的能源
供應衝擊，也無法減緩正在推高價格的人工智慧資本支出。」

聯準會決定讓政策利率繼續維持在去年12月以來的區間，顯示聯準會政策制定官員認同，
目前的借貸成本已經對經濟形成足夠的阻力，能夠壓低那些不會自行消退的通膨壓力；至
於關稅對商品價格造成的影響，則被預期會自行逐漸消退。

華許很少談及各項風險之間的權衡，也完全沒有說明政策利率的未來走向。不過，他曾表
示，人工智慧帶動的生產力提升，預計能讓經濟以更快速度成長，同時不會進一步推高通
膨。

在本週會議召開前，金融市場原先已反映約三分之一的升息機率；若本週會議沒有升息，
市場則幾乎百分之百預期聯準會將在9月升息。

到了9月，聯準會政策制定官員將再取得兩個月份的通膨與就業市場數據，讓他們能更清
楚判斷，上個月所呈現的物價壓力降溫現象是否持續。

Ann Saphir報導；Michael S. Derby補充報導；Paul Simao與Andrea Ricci編輯


心得/評論：

不止美國收斂，剛剛夜盤一度上漲2%多，等等看明天開盤
個人感覺還沒跌夠，因為美股大盤SPX沒有跌多少
還有修正空間，台股就跌比較重，但也沒跌到20%進入熊市
整體還是跌1X%而已，個股比較慘
股神剛剛講了句: Will hit them hard, it's our turn to.
美股馬上就下來

--
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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 203.222.16.55 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1785352492.A.EEC.html
推 tonyparker18: 鴿
推 yang1026    : https://www.blocktempo.com/fed-fomc-rate-decisio
→ yang1026    : n-hold-july-2026/
→ yang1026    : 這篇講的比較詳細
推 Ripper      : 覺得偏鷹
推 NekomataOkay: Rpg
※ 編輯: asahi98 (203.222.16.55 臺灣), 07/30/2026 03:28:38
→ baka1412    : 崩
推 andy79323   : 年底丸子
推 yang1026    : 繼續量化緊縮市場上的熱錢減少 請問大家覺得股票指
→ yang1026    : 數會上升還是下降 哈
推 chisheng74  : 緊縮
→ Skycrane    : 鴨
推 bunjie      : 偏鷹 明天亞股開盤就知道結果了
→ vettelking  : 關鍵字市場預測9月升息
推 st856533    : 瑟瑟發抖到九月
推 yang1026    : 基本上是不會升息，量化緊縮就能降低通澎了
→ zer0319     : 不重要了，繼續殺
推 bunjie      : 反正熱錢確定繼續變少
推 EasyIsBeauty: 好了啦 垃圾華西街一直在那製造恐慌
→ bunjie      : 再來觀察SPX是否也開始緩跌
推 L1ON        : 全砍不意外
→ L1ON        : 等等華崩腰斬，牙科跌停
→ asahi98     : 等九月了
推 ef88041811  : 再說一次 華西街就是笨色 見人說人話 見鬼說鬼話
推 munichuihsin: 難道要升息一碼利空出盡,華西街才有機會停止殺盤?
推 pufgm60632  : 講了就不會升
→ kf0916      : 不升息但縮表，繼續殺
→ MLARAI      : 不變但偏鷹=往下沙
推 poopp2007   : 今天美股下來的有點多啊 台股九點刺激了
→ asahi98     : 早點睡了，微軟跟臉書業績好也拉不起來，一群想空
→ reall860523 : 許哥就不想當罪人 一直放鷹但不升息
推 carbomd     : 利率不變就是繼續盤,現在偏鷹偏鴿也不重要,九月估計
→ carbomd     : 也不會動,因為年底有期中選舉.
推 kilo7       : 老劇本 米國升呆丸不生 錢回米國呆谷嚇嚇
噓 BBBC64      : 美光還在殺 喔YA
→ BBBC64      : 今天又是記憶體帶崩全世界的劇本
推 kinki5566   : 今天應該也是千點招待
推 sunnyhung   : 殺的要乾淨
推 dayuer      : 美股跌爛了，我想這次真的完蛋了.jpg
推 zivking     : 為什麼殺尾盤啊
→ a71085      : 因為不賭財報會出去啊
→ cchen       : 等蘋果漲價，通膨上升
→ CYL009      : 放鷹也是利空 丸子
推 w08445566   : 今天開盤跌停鎖死 千點招待 融資斷頭最後大V 利空
→ w08445566   : 出盡了