作者jasonccr (花花)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 92W GW/TCFA
時間Sat May 2 23:03:04 2015
已經箭在弦上了
形成之後應該命名為:紅霞
EC的預報有點精采，不過時間還久純欣賞
但只希望別破壞到梅雨季的鋒面發展
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http://i.imgur.com/6iRi5W1.jpg
http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/
熱帯低気圧
平成27年05月02日22時20分 発表
<02日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 7度25分(7.4度)
東経 142度35分(142.6度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
<03日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 カロリン諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 8度30分(8.5度)
東経 139度25分(139.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)
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WTPN21 PGTW 020830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4N 144.2E TO 8.4N 140.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 144.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.7N
145.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INCLUDING A 020414Z AMSU PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES
EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED
ON LOW-LEVEL CONSOLIDATION, IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030830Z.//
NNNN
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1430578987.A.C0C.html
推 aa1477888 : EC預測鉤上來的位置很有趣 05/02 23:07
※ 編輯: jasonccr (111.243.109.106), 05/02/2015 23:22:37
→ realgenius : 紅蝦 05/02 23:42
推 ICEFTP : 想到去年的鳳凰C。。 05/02 23:43
→ ICEFTP : 結果半途落跑 05/02 23:43
推 aegis43210 : 應該到了東經130度就會北轉了 05/03 00:04
推 a89103050 : 風季在這尷尬點開始，一則喜一則憂啊 05/03 00:14
推 KINMENKING : 沒意外就130度北轉，那水氣就全部被吸光了... 05/03 00:22
推 ilutc : 紅蝦XDDDD 05/03 00:24
推 aa1477888 : 太遠沒水氣 太近又怕破壞鋒面 很麻煩啊 05/03 00:39
推 vaughn : 頂多也只能破壞一次鋒面，不用太煩惱啦 05/03 00:46
推 happyreach : 現在就算是只尤破壞一次都很心痛啊XD 05/03 01:03
推 vaughn : 這倒也是，每次都很重要 05/03 01:05
推 JJLi : （祈禱125以西才北轉中） 05/03 08:02
推 maverick01 : 125一直都是最曖昧的分水嶺 05/03 11:18
推 markshian : JTWC已升格06W 05/03 14:23
→ aegis43210 : 聖嬰現象讓這區域的風切很平緩 05/03 14:59