作者keroromoa (皮丘使用飛天！)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 91W TCFA GW
時間Sat Jun 20 11:56:51 2015
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9115.gif
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9115web.txt
WTPN21 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 111.8E TO 18.5N 110.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 111.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
112.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.6E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
BANDING, ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ELONGATED LLCC. A 202257Z WINDSAT IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF
WINDS NOT LOCATED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION ARE BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFF-
SETTING THE 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VWS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS MARGINAL, DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS AN EFFECT OF THE SURGE EVENT
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
BASED ON
IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210300Z.//
NNNN
定位似乎往西調整
明顯季風低壓的外強中乾特徵，但與多數季風低壓相比較無多中心的問題
數值後期因副高西伸而跑出路徑未來西北折。
對台無直接影響，做為2015年颱風旺季開端的象徵意義較大，
但環流龐大仍可能造成西半部和外島天氣不穩定。
http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/a.html
熱帯低気圧
平成27年06月20日16時15分 発表
<20日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南シナ海
中心位置 北緯 15度20分(15.3度)
東経 111度50分(111.8度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
<21日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 17度25分(17.4度)
東経 111度50分(111.8度)
進行方向、速さ 北 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1434772627.A.90D.html
→ aegis43210 : 繼續保持每月有颱的態勢有望 06/20 12:01
推 airua : 看大寫英文還真略為不慣 06/20 14:30
※ 編輯: keroromoa (101.138.161.134), 06/20/2015 14:40:56
→ keroromoa : 為了給海軍看沒辦法，久了就會習慣的 06/20 14:41
→ approved : 如果升格為颱風的話就是連續10個月有颱風生成了 06/20 14:52
※ 編輯: keroromoa (101.138.161.134), 06/20/2015 15:52:10
→ keroromoa : BTW，JTWC取消92W評級 06/20 16:04
推 ilutc : 六月破蛋有望!!!! 06/20 19:21
