作者keroromoa (皮丘使用飛天！)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 96W TCFA GW
時間Thu Jul 2 02:17:46 2015
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9615.gif
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9615web.txt
WTPN21 PGTW 011730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 130.3E TO 15.6N 127.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 129.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
130.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
12.7N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SYMMETRIC FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT
WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 20 KNOT WINDS
SURROUNDING THE CIRCULATION AND STRONGER WESTERLY SURGE WINDS TO THE
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PARTIALLY OFFSET
BY
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021730Z.
//
NNNN
http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/b.html
熱帯低気圧
平成27年07月02日04時30分 発表
<02日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 13度10分(13.2度)
東経 128度55分(128.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
<03日03時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 15度20分(15.3度)
東経 128度00分(128.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)
先別管阿鴻了，你有聽過96W可能會往巴海跑嗎？
EC最新連載：
阿鴻轉向點略東調，96W進入巴海後受阿鴻影響轉向沿東海岸北上成為阿鴻新料理。
（阿鴻：下集要教各位觀眾做蓮花料理喔~）
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1435774690.A.172.html
※ 編輯: keroromoa (163.25.94.59), 07/02/2015 02:18:51
推 aa1477888 : 真正該注意的是這隻 07/02 02:21
※ 編輯: keroromoa (163.25.118.210), 07/02/2015 03:32:23
※ 編輯: keroromoa (163.25.118.210), 07/02/2015 03:34:04
推 SpringOcean : EC最近的預報太有趣惹 07/02 04:55
→ airua : 台灣有可能會被肛了 07/02 05:28
→ web2312 : 下周台灣附近嚴重塞車 07/02 06:45
推 jelly777 : 希望大家排好隊,一個一個慢慢來XD 07/02 07:55
推 HellFly : cwb:今年是聖嬰年 中颱以上…欸欸？ 07/02 08:17
推 HellFly : 但可能靠近就減弱了 就發個熱低特報 07/02 08:26
→ airua : CWB會解釋說, 我說"侵台"是指"登陸"的意思哦~ 啾咪 07/02 08:42
推 markshian : 升格為10W了～ 07/02 10:04
→ typhoon79412: arnings/wp1015.gif 07/02 10:58
→ keroromoa : 老J第1報上望85kts不封頂，中颱還是很有機會 07/02 11:03
→ keroromoa : 雖然去年鳳凰第1報也是75kts，不過蓮花整合比鳳凰好 07/02 11:05
→ keroromoa : 話說老J那誤差圈大得好離譜XD 07/02 11:26
推 ben108472 : 因為數值反應不強，而且混亂 07/02 11:35
推 JANGMI : 沒注意看還以為是暴風圈... 07/02 11:39
