作者dgitg5266 (巧克力)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 95W TCFA
時間Sun Aug 2 10:19:31 2015
竟然發佈TCFA了。
WTPN21 PGTW 011930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 29.0N 145.7E TO 30.7N 141.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 29.2N 145.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.6N
145.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO 10 KNOT WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 011200Z BYU HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A MIDGET SIZED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM AND OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28
TO 30 CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO INITIALIZE
THIS DISTURBANCE DUE TO ITS SMALL NATURE AND WEAK VERTICAL EXTENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021930Z.//
NNNN
早上2點發TCFA了
不知道啥時會升格
持續觀察囉！
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 111.243.159.123
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1438481974.A.753.html
→ ben108472 : 可惜已經裸了 08/02 10:21
推 aegis43210 : 呃，這位置，認真的嗎？我覺得沒發展空間呀 08/02 10:21
推 logdog : 不會升格 應該會TCFA CANCEL 08/02 10:26
→ wuwu60 : 這如果成颱風一定要存起來 超超級迷你XD 08/02 10:58
→ jay121133 : 超超級迷你? 08/02 12:46
推 aa1477888 : 是很明顯有在轉但是有發展空間嗎… 08/02 15:30
推 um65 : 結果升14W了…… 08/02 16:58
推 ICEFTP : XD 這個強 08/02 17:00
推 ilutc : 14W秒出現後又從老J網頁消失了 這是怎麼回事XD 08/02 17:07
推 keroromoa : 老J認為不會增強到TS 08/02 17:48
推 ilutc : 又出現了... 08/02 18:59
→ ilutc : 結果南半球要有冬颱生成了? 91P TCFA 08/02 19:00
推 chikorita : 超過北緯30度耶～這樣也行啊？曾有緯度更高的成颱？ 08/02 22:24
推 biostar : 記得看到某本書上有講過曾經有在北緯35度成颱 08/02 22:35
→ muching : 這個時期成颱在接近中緯度不會很奇怪 08/02 22:45
→ chikorita : 35度... 已經是東京的緯度了，那邊的海溫挺勉強 08/02 22:53
推 truffaut : 2013年蘇力侵台期間也有一個小可愛 08/03 01:54
推 ICEFTP : 生成的環境跟過程跟這個有點像 08/03 03:28