[情報] 91W TCFA

[keroromoa (發言要小心 避免踩到陳雷)]

圖：http://imgur.com/eWJV0VZ
文：

WTPN21 PGTW 170400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.1N 130.3E TO 23.5N 127.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.4N 130.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
131.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 170030Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS
ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE CIRCULATION WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL, WITH GOOD
WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. GIVEN INCREASING
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, IT IS LIKELY THE DISTURBANCE
WILL REACH THE MINIMUM WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS AND
REMAIN A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ULTIMATELY RESULTS IN DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR FORMATION FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180400Z.//
NNNN

老J認為未來1~2天還有發展空間，但也就這1~2天能夠發展到勉強符合TD下限程度。

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推 WuCH1022    : 順便一提 南印度洋90S已被老J升格01S
推 aegis43210  : 這隻目前的區域垂直風切很大，西方會低一些
推 DoraBoy     : 這是小程式早上模擬的結果
→ DoraBoy     : http://i.imgur.com/RxDZbmB.jpg
→ DoraBoy     : http://i.imgur.com/u3jCYhi.jpg
→ DoraBoy     : 預測轉向點在127E-128E附近 強度不太看好 巔峰強度
→ DoraBoy     : 大概25KTS
推 DoraBoy     : 話說TCFS預測 4天後 10N 135E附近會跑出新擾動來
→ DoraBoy     : 並預測以TD上限~輕颱下限擦過菲島北端進入南海
→ DoraBoy     : http://i.imgur.com/qdrB55e.jpg
→ DoraBoy     : 不過預測時間還久 擾動都還沒生成 再加上又是火星
→ DoraBoy     : 模式 大家看看就好 不要當真
→ DoraBoy     : Initiail time為 7/17才對 不小心打錯
→ DoraBoy     : 不過TCFS完全不看好91W的發展 對91W沒反應
推 jasonccr    : 久違的小程式！
推 DoraBoy     : XDD 只有風季才會出來
推 chikorita   : 好久沒看到Dora大大的模擬了，推～
推 aegis43210  : 小程式好棒，推
推 TinyaX      : 推小程式
推 fajita      : 不知道Dora大有沒有用小程式模擬尼尼？
推 WuCH1022    : 老J升03W
→ keroromoa   : 不到6小時就Final Warning了