作者pttmaster (批踢踢大濕)
看板TY_Research
標題Re: [情報] 恭喜莫蘭蒂勇奪2016西太風王
時間Tue Sep 13 00:23:51 2016
這份巔峰強度的老J報文 可以留著紀念
0912 1500Z / 155KT
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
INDICATED CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION SINCE 120600Z, WITH CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL AND THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE WELL-
DEFINED EYE BECOMING EVEN MORE SYMMETRIC. EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THERMOMETRIC ESTIMATES OF OVER 18C IN THE
CENTER OF THE EYE.
從120600Z開始快速增強
雲頂溫度持續下降，眼牆週圍深對流更為對稱
眼溫顯著上升，估計為18度
A 121247Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED EYE. CONVECTIVE SYMMETRY AND BANDING CONTINUES
TO IMPROVE AS OF THIS WRITING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH
PGTW AND RJTD HAVE RISEN TO T7.5. GIVEN THE ABOVE ANALYSIS, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 155 KNOTS.
微波頻道看到多重深對流螺旋帶圍繞清晰的颱風眼
寫這篇的同時，對流雲帶對稱正在更為完整
Dvorak分析都達到T7.5，因此給定155kt
STY 16W IS CURRENTLY IN
AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF AN INTENSE
SUPER TYPHOON, WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS, VERY
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 5 TO 10 KNOTS), AND WARM SSTS (30
TO 31C). CURRENT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON A 120928
WINDSAT PASS. STY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
非常良好的環境(在每個象限都極佳的外流、非常低的垂直風切、30~31度的高海溫)，
支持颱風維持超級颱風的強度。
現在的風圈已經過衛星掃描校正過。
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOW SETTLED ON A TRACK THAT TAKES THE SYSTEM
TOWARD SOUTHERN TAIWAN OR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LUZON
STRAIT. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE EGRR, JGSM, AND JENS TRACKERS,
WHICH INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST
PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION, GIVEN THE RECENT MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. BEYOND TAU 36, TRACK SHIFTS DUE TO VORTEX
INTERACTION WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF TAIWAN ARE POSSIBLE,
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON THESE TRACK SHIFTS. STY
16W IS LIKELY APPROACHING IS THERMODYNAMIC MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
INTENSITY, SO SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DRIVEN PREDOMINANTLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 AS SSTS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY COOL AND LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN COMMENCES.
大致上颱風將往西北西(北巴士海峽至台灣南端)，但JTWC傾向較為偏北，
原因為最近颱風較偏向西北方行進。
36小時候颱風將與台灣地形互動，路徑飄移也是可能的。
颱風大概已經接近熱、動力上的巔峰強度，
未來24小時可能有強度上的調整，例如眼牆置換。
C. AFTER TAU 72, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STY 16W WILL
CROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A WEAKER SYSTEM AND MAKE A SECOND
LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND CHINA BY AROUND TAU 60. WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER, WITH A POLEWARD TURN
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD BEYOND
48 HOURS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BEYOND
THAT TIME.//
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推 TiggerLin : 推 09/13 00:26
→ airua : 看大寫真吃力...到底為什麼他們不改成一般大小寫 09/13 00:26
推 puretd : 因為是海軍 09/13 00:26
推 keroromoa : 原因講過N次了，反正也不是寫給你看的 09/13 00:26
推 chiy16 : 感謝 09/13 00:27
→ aa1477888 : 似乎沒有談到+12HR後擴大風圈的理由？ 09/13 00:27
→ airua : 海軍這不是常識嗎？ 09/13 00:28
推 aegis43210 : 和K版講的相同，目前的型態已到極限，只能眼牆置換 09/13 00:29
→ orion78 : 請google 美國 海軍 大寫 或許有答案 09/13 00:31
推 Eeli2008 : 寫得好清楚喔 ~ 09/13 00:32
→ airua : 早Google過了，還是不知道為何不肯改一般大小寫 09/13 00:35
推 keroromoa : 那為什麼不寫信給JTWC呢？順便問一下JTWC發布時間為 09/13 00:37
→ keroromoa : 什麼會晚2小時才出來不能像JMA一樣快速吧 09/13 00:38
推 david31408 : 想知道是好事 請洽US NAVY 這是他們的系統 09/13 00:40
→ GossipCandy : 哈哈 樓上有抓到精髓 09/13 00:40
→ airua : 抱歉，我以爲這個問題還算基本，應該很多人知道答 09/13 00:41
→ airua : 案，結果猜錯了... 還是只能問當事人了 09/13 00:42
→ airua : 或許還是會有神人知道答案吧...@@ 09/13 00:45
推 greenYoshi : 假裝自己是很多人，跟寶可夢飛人假裝一般人有87%像 09/13 00:46
→ airua : JTWC晚2小時喔？倒沒特別注意。如果固定晚2小時左右 09/13 00:51
→ airua : ，應該是他們的習慣或規定，不要像CWB最近有些預報 09/13 00:51
→ airua : 比CWB自己平時晚半小時，那就是有可能退步了 09/13 00:52
推 keroromoa : 那就麻煩你統計CWB平常平均是幾點發報，再和最近幾 09/13 01:00
→ keroromoa : 天的發報時間比較一下看有沒有統計意義囉 09/13 01:01
→ keroromoa : 不然CWB發報幾十年，拿最近幾次的發報來說CWB退步應 09/13 01:02
→ keroromoa : 該證據不足吧 09/13 01:02
推 pcfox : 天天找戰，是哪邊有問題？世界不是因你而轉動的 09/13 04:34
推 juenren11 : 不是人也在裝正常人 09/13 07:28
推 maple205 : 看大寫覺得閱讀順暢啊 哪裡有問題？ 09/13 07:46
推 WeGoYuSheng : 笑死... 自己看不慣大寫不會多看多練？跟我某些朋友 09/13 07:51
→ WeGoYuSheng : 一樣...寫單字全大寫給他看,居然看不懂希望我重寫 09/13 07:51
推 mstar : 我可以跟 jtwc 說看英文真吃力，要他們改成一般中文 09/13 08:22
→ mstar : 嗎？真是不知道為何不肯改全世界最多人用的文字～ 09/13 08:23
推 WeGoYuSheng : 啊不就英文... 09/13 18:59