作者usaul56 (凱哥)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 12W生成
時間Fri Jul 28 16:42:32 2017
WDPN32 PGTW 280900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 01 CORRECTED//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
280900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 116.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W
(TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
DISORGANIZED FRAGMENTED BANDING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND
IS BASED ON A 280231Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING SEVERAL 30 KNOT
WIND BARBS AT THE EDGE OF SWATH EMBEDDED IN A LARGE REGION OF 25
KNOT WINDS THAT CAN BE SEEN IN BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING HINDERED FROM THE EXHAUST
OF NEARBY TY 11W (NESAT) TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE, THERE IS GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH MARGINAL EASTERLY WIND SHEAR.
SSTS ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE NEAR 28 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 12W IS
DRIFTING WESTWARD IN A POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM AND ESTABLISHES THE
FORECAST REASONING.
B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL
PERSIST AND TD 12W WILL REMAIN IN A QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION. AS TY
11W PASSES SUFFICIENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, A MID TO LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST GUIDING TD 12W NORTHEASTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE WHILE THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE STRENGTHENS, FEEDING INTO TD 12W. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTION FROM TY 11W IS
EXPECTED, MITIGATING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, AROUND TAU 72, TD 12W WILL BE
JUST EAST OF TY 11W, IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY. LAND INTERACTION WITH
TAIWAN DURING THIS TIME WILL HELP WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. JUST AFTER TAU
72 TD 12W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER
CHINA WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF 11W, ALSO
OVER LAND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, BUT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO
THE COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH TY 11W. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX INTERACTION
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: 11W IS NOW AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AND
http://imgur.com/UDivOir
看這路徑和強度
要發雙颱警報了嗎?
西南氣流要吃不完了
南部好抖啊...
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推 eeeee118 : 好久沒雙颱警報齊發了 07/28 16:44
推 fajita : 12W蠻有可能變海棠,會不會變雙陸警+藤原呢?太神奇了 07/28 16:45
→ hsr7016 : 雙颱雙海陸警...XD 07/28 16:45
推 nkhc89214041: 不會吧@@....雙颱QQ我要回阿里山上班啊.... 07/28 16:46
推 jelly777 : 又要見證歷史了...XD 07/28 16:46
推 rocky9137 : 不會重演75年韋恩西部登陸吧 07/28 16:46
推 smartalex : 台北再度逃過一劫 07/28 16:47
→ hsr7016 : 重點是擦邊球到底會不會摸到西部陸地呢 07/28 16:47
推 Tamama56 : 下週精彩了，可以開賭盤看賴市長是否會放半天假 07/28 16:47
→ hsr7016 : 前一個西半部陸地登陸的颱風是2004南瑪都(? 07/28 16:47
推 a27281591 : 本島不歡迎周末假期來的颱風 QQ 07/28 16:48
推 maxw1102 : 要選新北了 賴說不定會大放送哦 07/28 16:48
推 KimomiKai : 兩週內都會下雨感覺好煩 07/28 16:51
→ ethanul : max大大很危險 07/28 16:53
推 azcooper : 好久沒看到西部登陸 07/28 16:53
推 steward135 : 前一個走海峽的 07/28 16:57
推 a7952609 : 好可怕的感覺阿阿阿阿阿 07/28 16:57
推 book8685 : 南瑪都印象深刻 本來前兩天中北部雨勢很大 07/28 16:57
→ steward135 : 而且速度飛快 07/28 16:57
→ book8685 : 然後周末 中北部就沒雨了 07/28 16:58
推 tina1007 : 走西部北部跑不了 07/28 16:58
→ ppit : 這個路徑上去 兩個颱風加起來南部雨量要突破天際了? 07/28 17:00
推 loveppears4u: 這颱風是真的開外掛了 07/28 17:01
推 dunn : CWB風場預報看起來會被尼莎吃掉? 07/28 17:03
推 wl3532 : jma連gw都沒有... 07/28 17:07
推 smartalex : GFS的預測看起來全台週一都有影響 07/28 17:11
推 azcooper : 泥沙颱 玩泥沙 捉泥鰍 07/28 17:15
推 Waitaha : 覺得不會變颱風 07/28 17:21
推 ccc73123 : 這路徑很可怕...就算只是輕颱風力也會很強 07/28 17:24
推 jschenlemn : 現在是怎樣達美樂海陸雙響買大送大喔 07/28 17:26
推 keroromoa : 第4報沒有調強 07/28 17:28
→ azcooper : 期待海棠重返榮耀 07/28 17:39
推 nadekowang : 前一個泰利 只有澎湖影響較大吧 07/28 18:15
→ nadekowang : 那時候媒體也報得很聳動 07/28 18:15
推 info1994 : 別鬧啊 07/28 18:21
→ killseven : 因為要登陸西南部沒那麼容易。常常偏掉 07/28 18:25
→ killseven : 沒記錯最近的登陸西南部的應該是2004南瑪督 07/28 18:26
推 aegis43210 : 嗯，是讓人印像深刻的南瑪督，和艾利同年 07/28 18:31
推 ianqoo2000 : 就算沒登陸，掃過去也是挺可怕的吧。 07/28 18:37
推 qadc : 泰利無感 07/28 18:39
→ qadc : 走海峽不一定怎樣 07/28 18:40
推 joe10227 : 娜克莉也是一個從西南來的颱風 07/28 19:19
推 Eeli2008 : 海峽的環境不太好 除非進入之前強度就有了 07/28 19:19
推 orz : 真的罕見 如升級就雙颱陸警齊發 +藤原效應互相牽引 07/28 19:20
推 ilutc : 好像還沒有雙颱陸警過 頂多一海一陸 07/28 19:27
推 Waitaha : 對流爆發 07/28 22:31
推 nicegun : 這坨感覺弱弱的 07/29 03:05
